Haluk Erlat

Middle East Technical University | METU · Department of Economics

We investigate whether the pattern of Turkish trade has a persistent nature or is dynamic, by considering 5-digit Rev.3 trade data for the period 1969 to 2001 and investigating whether their distribution between sectors which are in surplus, in balance or in deficit, has shown persistence over time. The tools we use involve classifying the sectors...

Measuring horizontal intra-industry trade and vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) requires that traded products be classified as horizontally differentiated and vertically differentiated, and Greenaway et al. (1994) do this by using the relative unit values of exports and imports. We used the five-digit SITC, Rev. 3 trade data for the Turkish manu...

We consider the comparative advantage of Turkish exports, using 3-digit SITC Rev.3 data, with the aim of identifying those sectors that have shown an increase in comparative advantage in recent years, the expectation being that this will lead to those sectors which hold the most promise of being the leading export sectors in the future. We used Bal...

After important policy changes in 1980, Turkey's trade expanded considerably. Although interindustry trade remained predominant, intraindustry trade (IIT) increased substantially. This paper investigates whether the increase in IIT contributed to reducing adjustment costs due to trade expansion. We undertook an econometric approach and considered t...

The objective of this paper is to test if Turkish real exchange rates have a linear unit root or are generated by an Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model for the post-1980 period. Using two real exchange rates, one with the USA and the other with Germany, strong evidence of nonlinear stationarity was found for the US CPI-based series...

The objective of this paper is to investigate the persistence in Turkish real exchange rates (RER) using unit root tests and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. We consider two RERs, one in terms of the German DM and the other, in terms of the US$. The plots of these RERs (based on both wholesale price indices and...

Works on whether Turkey's trade structure is predominantly interindustry or intra-industry and whether there has been a shift toward intra-industry trade (IIT) after 1980 are of a limited number. The present study attempts to shed some light on these questions, stressing, in particular, changes in IIT. We consider Turkey's trade with the world for...

Turkey's trade, exports in particular, expanded considerably after the major policy changes in 1980. Together with this expansion, there was also a significant increase in intra-industry trade even though the major characteristic of Turkish trade is still inter-industry. However, since intra-industry trade is hypothesised to reduce adjustment costs...

Based on its outward-oriented development strategy, respectable growth, increased integration into world trade and financial markets, and imperfect though vibrant and wide-based democracy, Turkey is often cited as a development model for other countries in the region and elsewhere. Countering this positive picture of the Turkish economy over the la...

In this comment we note that the methodology used by Apergis and Karfakis (1996) (a) leads to restricting the contemporaneous impact matrix not the long-run impact matrix in identifying their SVAR model, contrary to to their stated objective, and (b) that the Bernanke-Sims procedure of identification and the conventional Cholesky-decomposition base...

With the adoption of export-led growth and a liberal exchange rate regime in a post-1980, high-inflation country like Turkey, it becomes important to measure the relative importance of permanent and temporary shocks on real and nominal exchange rates (RER and NER, respectively) and the decomposition of the RER into these two components. This task w...

Four alternative tests of overidentifying exclusion restrictions are compared and it is found that all four share a common numerator but differ with respect to their denominators. This analysis leads to representations of these statistics in terms of easy-to-compute sums of squared residuals.

A simple-to-implement, finite sample test for structural change in an equation belonging to a simultaneous system and estimated by Two-Stage Least Squares, is presented.

Testing whether real exchange rates are stationary and, thereby, obtaining evidence of whether the absolute version of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis holds, have, initially, be done by using the ADF statistic to test for a unit root. Subsequently, to mitigate the low power of the ADF test, several alternatives have been used for the s...