Haiyan Song

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University | PolyU · School of Hotel and Tourism Management

To explore recent progress in tourism demand research, we comprehensively survey current studies in the leading tourism and hospitality journals, asking six evaluative questions about the scientific merits of the studies and three explorative questions about emerging areas in the literature. The examination identifies potential flaws and their cons...

Purpose – This study aims to examine the effect of several types of ex post i-deals on work-life balance and work well-being, focusing on the mediating effect of work-life balance on the relationship between ex post i-deals and work well-being as well as the moderating effect of gender on the relationship between ex post i-deals and work-life balan...

This study aims to forecast international tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from seven English-speaking countries. A new direction in tourism demand modeling and forecasting is presented by incorporating tourist-generated online review data related to tourist attractions, hotels, and shopping markets into the destination forecasting system. The main em...

Tourism demand nowcasting is generally carried out using econometric models that incorporate either macroeconomic variables or search query data as explanatory variables. Nowcasting model accuracy is normally evaluated by traditional loss functions. This study proposes a novel statistical method, the monotonicity test, to assess whether the nowcast...

With advances in transportation and information technology, territorial and administrative barriers are being overcome to carve out regions for multi-destination tourism. This study on collaboration and governance within the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) highlights the complexities in developing cross-bordr tourism destinations u...

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate how different types of idiosyncratic deals (i-deals) in the hospitality industry enhance occupational well-being (OWB) through organization-based self-esteem (OBSE). Design/methodology/approach: In 2019, 679 questionnaires were distributed to middle- and high-level managerial staff who had worked in high-en...

During recent decades numerous academics have examined the tourism-led economic growth (TLEG) hypothesis, and a large number of related empirical studies have been published in the tourism literature. However, the research designs for many of these studies have not satisfactorily addressed the theoretical foundation that underpins the TLEG hypothes...

This study proposes a hierarchical pattern recognition method for tourism demand forecasting. The hierarchy consists of three tiers: the first tier recognizes the calendar pattern of tourism demand, identifying work days and holidays and integrating “floating holidays.” The second tier recognizes the tourism demand pattern in the data stream for di...

Due to increasing accessibility and mobility, tourism destinations are broadening their spatial boundaries and cultural contexts. This study took as an example the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, which consists of 11 cities, and explored how the new path creation of a regional tourism destination reshapes people's cognitive and affectiv...

Limited historical data are the primary cause of the failure of tourism forecasts. Bayesian bootstrap aggregation (BBagging) may offer a solution to this problem. This study is the first to apply BBagging to tourism demand forecasting. An analysis of annual and quarterly tourism demand for Hong Kong shows that BBagging can, in general, improve the...

During a pandemic, tourism can inflict negative social costs on communities in tourist destinations. This study examines factors affecting residents’ responses to policies to mitigate the social costs of tourism during a pandemic. Two hypothetical scenarios are analyzed. Study 1 investigates framing effects on residents’ attitudes toward the effect...

Key message This study showed the systematic identification of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) involving in flag leaf senescence of rice, providing the possible lncRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships and lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA ceRNA networks during leaf senescence. Abstract LncRNAs have been reported to play crucial roles in diverse biological processes....

Main conclusion Circular RNAs (circRNAs) identification, expression profiles, and construction of circRNA-parental gene relationships and circRNA-miRNA-mRNA ceRNA networks indicate that circRNAs are involved in flag leaf senescence of rice. Abstract Circular RNAs (circRNAs) are a class of 3′-5′ head-to-tail covalently closed non-coding RNAs which...

The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s imported wine demand and to forecast wine imports from 2019 to 2023 using econometric methods. Auto-regressive distributed lag models are developed based on neoclassical economic demand theory to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s demand for imported bottle...

The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined t...

Although numerous studies have focused on forecasting international tourism demand, minimal light has been shed on the factors influencing the accuracy of real-world ex ante forecasting. This study evaluates the forecasting errors across various prediction horizons by analyzing the annually published forecasts of the Pacific Asia Tourism Associatio...

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is currently spreading across the world at an alarming rate, resulting in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Amidst this crisis, tourism scholars are directing their attention to communities at tourist destinations, looking at their safety and well-being and the costs that they will bear due t...

This study provides innovative forecasts of the probabilities of certain scenarios of tourism demand. The scenarios of interest are constructed in relation to tourism growth and economic growth. The probability forecasts based on these scenarios provide valuable information for destination policy makers. The time-varying parameter panel vector auto...

Search query data reflect users’ intentions, preferences and interests. The interest in using such data to forecast tourism demand has increased in recent years. The mixed data sampling (MIDAS) method is often used in such forecasting, but is not effective when moving average (MA) dynamics are involved. To investigate the relevance of the MA compon...

Commercial hosts are becoming increasingly common in peer-to-peer accommodation sharing, but the interplay between commercial and individual hosts is less identified. This study investigates the effect of properties managed by commercial hosts on the individual hosts in the neighborhood. Specifically, we hypothesize that an increase in commercial p...

This study explores middle and senior hotel managers’ perceptions of their own idiosyncratic deals (i-deals) and develops a scale to measure i-deals in the Chinese hospitality industry. The study uses a mixed research method consisting of a questionnaire survey of 675 middle and senior hotel managers and in-depth interviews with 20 knowledge worker...

The proliferation of accommodation-sharing platforms has changed the ways in which people travel and experience tourist attractions. However, the impact of accommodation sharing on attractions remains under-researched. To fill this gap in the research, we use a mixed methods approach to examine the spillover effect in two key tourism service suppli...

Numerous studies have shown that terrorist attacks at a tourist destination reduce the level of inbound tourism and encourage tourists to travel to neighboring destinations. However, few studies have examined how terrorist attacks influence the substitution effect between different forms of tourism within the destinations at which the attacks take...

Hosting mega-events is often perceived as a way to stimulate economic growth through tourism. However, the cost of infrastructure investments and promotion may outweigh the benefits generated by the mega-events. Measuring the impact of such events on a hosting country’s economy is not easy, especially as mega-events generally involve many sectors o...

Search engine data are of considerable interest to researchers for their utility in predicting human behaviour. Recently, search engine data have also been used to predict tourism demand (TD). Models developed based on such data generate more accurate forecasts of TD than pure time-series models. The aim of this article is to examine whether combin...

This study is aimed at investigating what has happened to the dynamic linkages between foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism development in China since the emergence of the so-called new normal economy. A time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is used for the first time to analyze the equi-spaced and time-point impulse r...

This paper intends to explore middle and senior hotel managers’ perceptions of their own idiosyncratic deals by developing a measurement scale so as to understand the applicability and current practice of knowledge workers’ idiosyncratic deals in the Chinese hospitality industry. Utilizing a mixed research method, this study conducted in-depth inte...

This study reviews 211 key papers published between 1968 and 2018, for a better understanding of how the methods of tourism demand forecasting have evolved over time. The key findings, drawn from comparisons of method-performance profiles over time, are that forecasting models have grown more diversified, that these models have been combined, and t...

This paper explores the perceptions of middle and senior hotel managers about their own idiosyncratic deals (or i-deals) in order to understand the applicability and current practice of knowledge workers’ idiosyncratic deals in the Chinese hospitality industry. Utilizing the pragmatic qualitative research approach, this study conducted a content an...

Search query data have recently been used to forecast tourism demand. Linear models, particularly autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable models, are often used to assess the predictive power of search query data. However, they are limited by their inability to model non-linearity due to their pre-assumed linear forms. Arti...

This study used scoring rules to evaluate density forecasts generated by different time-series models. Based on quarterly tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from ten source markets, the empirical results suggest that density forecasts perform better than point forecasts. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was found to p...

Personalisation is a critical factor in superior customer experience and retention. It is also observed to be a cause of user frustration. This paper challenges the assumption that accurate content personalisation always positively affects tourist perceptions on the usefulness and ease of use of the information systems. The study integrates the log...

Few studies have investigated the effects of taxation on micro-level tourism demand or the composition of tourists’ budgets during a trip. This study examines the intersection of these two areas, and models the influence of the air passenger duty (APD) on the budget allocations of outbound UK tourists. The compositional data analysis (CODA) approac...

In this article, we use attendance data from La Cité du Vin , a wine museum in the city of Bordeaux, to assess the impact of the recent wave of terror that affected France on wine tourism. We use recent count regression estimation techniques suited for time series data to build a prediction model of the demand for attendance at this museum. We conc...

Tourist decision to visit attractions is a complex process influenced by multiple factors of individual context. This study investigates how the accuracy of tourism demand forecasting can be improved at the micro level. The number of visits to five London museums is forecast and the predictive powers of Naïve I, seasonal Naïve, seasonal autoregress...

A supply-side structural reform (SSR) has been carried out in China since late 2015, with a view to reducing overproduction in selected products such as coal, iron and steel. This paper examines whether the development of international tourism in China could support SSR, using an multi-methods approach that combines an econometric model and a compu...

This study investigates whether pooling can improve the forecasting performance of tourism demand models. The short-term domestic tourism demand forecasts for 341 cities in China using panel data (pooled) models are compared with individual ordinary least squares (OLS) and naïve benchmark models. The pooled OLS model demonstrates much worse forecas...

This study highlights the valuable role the hospitality industry can play in addressing a societal problem by studying how social interactions between elderly consumers and other customers influence the satisfaction and social well-being of the former. The data were collected from 268 elderly consumers in local coffee shops in the United Kingdom us...

Tourism satellite accounts (TSAs) have been widely recognized as standard tools to measure the contribution of tourism to destination economies. However, issues such as high costs of data collection and delayed release of TSAs have limited their regular compilation and practical application in some countries/regions. This study, therefore, introduc...

Purpose – This study aims to use the theory of third places to understand how different kinds of social interactions in small hospitality businesses, such as restaurants and cafes, can enhance senior customers’ experiences and alleviate their loneliness. Design/methodology/approach – The target population of this study were Hong Kong residents of a...

Purpose Most existing studies on the impact of tourism on economic growth adopt an econometric approach that is insufficient to confirm that tourism actually leads to economic growth. Moreover, it cannot explain the causalities of different variables. Taking Mauritius as an example, this study aims to use the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of extrinsic cues on wine consumer’s willingness to pay (WTP) based on a blind tasting experiment conducted in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach Using data from a three-stage blind wine tasting experiment, the authors examine how an average consumer’s WTP for a bottle of wine change...

Increasing levels of global and regional integration have led to tourist flows between countries becoming closely linked. These links should be considered when modeling and forecasting international tourism demand within a region. This study introduces a comprehensive and accurate systematic approach to tourism demand analysis, based on a Bayesian...

The purpose of this research is to propose an index approach to study the impact of travel experience on tourists' satisfaction and the further impact on their sense of well-being. Based on the latest development of tourist satisfaction research, that is, the tourist satisfaction indices, this innovative study further extends the two-stage framewor...

Information search is an indicator of tourist interest in a specific service and potential purchase decision. User online search patterns are a well-known tool for forecasting pre-trip consumer behaviour, such as hotel demand and international tourist arrivals. However, the potential of search engine data for estimating the demand for tourist attra...

Using a sample that covers all casino companies in Macao from March 2010 to June 2015, this paper investigates the impact of institutional investment on stock return volatility in the casino industry. The results suggest that higher institutional ownership is conducive to lower return volatility on Macao casino stocks. Such volatility also hinges o...

Early-stage tourism destinations often seek external capital to establish, invest and participate in tourism businesses at various levels. Entrepreneurial mobility at these destinations is thus an important phenomenon in need of further exploration both empirically and theoretically. This study uses an early-stage destination in rural China as a ca...

Tourism practitioners must often rely on each other in a tourism supply chain (TSC). Demand forecasting plays a key role in shaping the activities of TSC practitioners. In the past 4 decades, researchers have developed many techniques for advanced tourism demand forecasting, but practitioners have had little interest in them. To bridge this gap, we...

This study develops a global vector autoregressive (global VAR or GVAR) model to quantify the cross-country co-movements of tourism demand and simulate the impulse responses of shocks to the Chinese economy. The GVAR model overcomes the endogeneity and over-parameterisation issues found in many tourism demand models. The results show the size of co...

Globalization characterizes the economic, social, political, and cultural spheres of the modern world. Tourism has long been claimed as a crucial force shaping globalization, while in turn the developments of the tourism sector are under the influences of growing interdependence across the world. As globalization proceeds, destination countries hav...

Big data is one of the most important new tools that have impacted the world travel industry. It also plays an important role in determining the ways in which tourism businesses and non-governmental organizations formulate their strategies and policies. However, very limited academic research has been conducted into tourism forecasting using big da...

The relationship between tourism and economic growth has created a large body of literature investigating the hypotheses of tourism-led economic growth (TLEGH) and economy-driven tourism growth (EDTGH). In this article, we use mixed-frequency Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship between the two types of growth in Hong Kong from 1...

This study aims to develop a model of the influence of idiosyncratic deals (or i-deals) on Chinese employees’ affective commitment and organizational citizenship behavior, and to examine the mediating effect of affective commitment on the relationship between i-deals and organizational citizenship behavior based on the theory of social exchange. Us...

This working paper applied a triangulation of qualitative research methods, namely projective techniques, to gain a more specific understanding of the main reasons for dissatisfaction with Hong Kong service for mainland Chinese tourists. The presented study adds on results from the PolyU Tourism Satisfaction Index 2009 to 2015, where tourists from...

This study introduces bootstrap aggregation (bagging) in modeling and forecasting tourism demand. The aim is to improve the forecast accuracy of predictive regressions while considering fully automated variable selection processes which are particularly useful in industry applications. The procedures considered for variable selection is the general...

This study examines the forecasting performance of the general-to-specific (GETS) models developed for Hong Kong through the bootstrap aggregating method (known as bagging). Although the literature in other research areas shows that bagging can improve the forecasting performance of GETS models, the empirical analysis in this study does not confirm...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to review recent studies published from 2007 to 2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and fo...

This study aims to examine how customer satisfaction varies across different trip types and travellers’ experience levels. Using online reviews covering all Hong Kong hotels in TripAdvisor, we performed a series of analyses to understand the relationships between rating and self-identified trip type and experience level represented by the reviewer’...

The economic impacts of on-screen tourism are particularly interesting, and research in this area can provide useful information to governments making decisions regarding subsidising film production and forming relevant marketing strategies. No reliable and systematic approach for measuring the economic impacts of on-screen tourism currently exists...

The aim of this study was to examine how experiential learning (EL) activities influence the employability skills of entry-level hotel employees/graduates and their resulting learning satisfaction. Four hypotheses pertaining to the constructs of EL, employability skills and learning satisfaction were developed on the basis of a comprehensive litera...

International tourism is considered an effective means of economic development. However, the effects of tourism are not evenly distributed between rural and urban households in China. In the wake of significant socioeconomic events, the uneven distribution of the economic effects has huge welfare implications for Chinese households. This study is t...

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A detailed understanding of decision rules is essential in order to better explain consumption behavior, yet the variety of decision rules used have been somewhat neglected in tourism research. This study adopts an innovative method, greedoid analysis, to estimate a noncompensatory type of decision rule known as lexicographic by aspect (LBA). It is...

There are two questions that this study seeks to answer: ① Does extrinsic cue affects willingness to pay for a bottle of wine of consumers in Hong Kong? ② Do consumers with different level of wine experience respond differently to the extrinsic information such as country of origin and grape variety?

What are the factors that affect a consumer’s willingness to purchase wine? Do Chinese consumers behave differently from their western counterparts’ in terms of wine consumption?

A new model that links climate and seasonal tourism demand is developed to study the effects of home climate, destination climate, and climate difference between destinations and source markets on seasonal tourism demand. Using the dynamic panel data technique, the study focuses on the demand of tourists from Hong Kong for 19 of the major tourism c...

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed o...

The 3rd World Research Summit for Tourism and Hospitality and 1st USA-China Tourism Research Summit : Tranforming Partnerships 2015, Orlando, FL, USA, 15-19 December 2015

The package tour market is information intensive in nature. Its complex informational structure is generally inaccessible to tourists, whose purchase behavior might be affected by the extent to which they can access such information. This study shows that package tours can result in low tourist satisfaction and deter tourists’ behavioral intention...

Abstract (Free download link: authors.elsevier.com/a/1RQ3r_3fvx14a-) Using China’s urban household survey data for 2002–2009, this study compares the impacts of the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of urban household expenditure on tourism in different age cohorts. The life cycle age profiles of group-tour and non-group tour expenditu...

This paper aims to examine the demand for outbound tourism by mainland Chinese residents to 11 international destinations, and provide long-run forecasts up to the year 2020. The empirical results suggest that the income level and the cost of a stay at a tourism destination compared with that of staying at a Chinese tourism destination are two impo...

This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand. A new price variable based on relative ratios of purchasing power parity index is developed for the substitution analysis. Short-run demand elasticities are calculated based on the estimated error correction...

Numerous studies on tourism forecasting have now been published over the past five decades. However, no consensus has been reached in terms of which types of forecasting models tend to be more accurate and in which circumstances. This study uses meta-analysis to examine the relationships between the accuracy of different forecasting models, and the...

Selecting the most suitable forecasting method in tourism depends on evaluating the level of uncertainty involved, the level of forecast accuracy required, the availability of resources, and the time horizon needed to obtain the forecasts. Deeper understanding of a methodological competence among different judgmental forecasting techniques would as...

Purpose – This paper aims to understand employees’ perceptions of human resources management functions and how these affect brand performance, and the indirect influence of human resources management functions when mediated by job satisfaction in branded hotels in China. Hotel human resources functions, specifically organizational career management...