Haikun Zhao

Haikun Zhao
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology · School of Atmospheric Science

PhD

About

71
Publications
13,270
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780
Citations
Introduction
I am a full Professor in the College of Atmospheric Science at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), China. I received my Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from NUIST in 2012. I have been working on tropical cyclones and climate change, seasonal and intra-seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts since 2007. I have published over 40 articles in peer-reviewed journals such as the Nature Communications, Journal of Climate, and Geophysical Research Letters.
Additional affiliations
August 2019 - present
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Position
  • Professor (Full)
July 2015 - July 2019
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
June 2014 - June 2015
Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE)
Position
  • Research Assistant
Education
September 2007 - June 2012
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Field of study
  • tropical cyclone and climate change
September 2004 - June 2007
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Field of study
  • Applied mathematics

Publications

Publications (71)
Article
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This study finds that the meridional migration of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) between June and November over the eastern North Pacific is mainly due to changes in the Hadley circulation and associated changes in the location of the intertropical convergence zone as modulated by ENSO and the interhemispheric temperature differential (ITD). These two...
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How anthropogenic forcing could change tropical cyclones (TCs) is a keen societal concern owing to its significant socio-economic impacts. However, a global picture of the anthropogenic aerosol effect on TCs has not yet emerged. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol emission can reduce northern hemisphere (NH) TCs but increase southern hemisphere...
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This study finds an enhanced relationship in recent years between January–March eastern Tibetan Plateau snow depth (TPSD) and the frequency of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (RITCs) over the western Northern Pacific (WNP) during the following peak TC season (July–November). The correlation between TPSD and RITCs is significant during 2000–2...
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A L2 regularized logistic regression model is developed in this study to predict weekly tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) and sub-regions of the WNP including the South China Sea (SCS), the western WNP (WWNP), and the eastern WNP (EWNP). The potential predictors for the TC genesis model include a time-varying TC gen...
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As a large-scale ocean–atmosphere coupling system in the Southern Hemisphere, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) greatly impacts the global climate. However, the interdecadal variation of the ACW has rarely been studied due to the lack of long-term data. In this research, the latest 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 dataset is used to analyze the...
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The effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few decades. Although theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate, there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change. While a few comprehe...
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An observational study focusing on the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) that form over the western North Pacific (WNP) to the synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA) over the North Pacific during the boreal autumn and early winter in the period 1979–2019 is presented in this paper. Statistical results show that WNP TCs entering the mid...
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Recent studies have noted a poleward shift in tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) location. Whether this observed shift is due to global warming, natural variability or a combination of both factors remains inconclusive. The western North Pacific (WNP) has been shown in prior research to be the most robust contributor to the obse...
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This study finds an increasing trend in the decay timescale (τ) of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TCs) making landfall on the Asian continent from 1966-2018. Statistical analysis of individual landfalling TCs shows that τ is significantly positively linked to soil wetness, 850-hPa relative vorticity and 200-hPa divergence, whereas it...
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本文基于1984−2017年热带气旋灾情资料和中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋最佳路径资料,分析了中国热带气旋灾害的时空特征,比较了不同盛行路径下热带气旋灾害的差异,探讨了盛行路径下热带气旋陆上持续时间变化及灾害潜在风险。结果表明:(1)1984−2017年,直接经济损失呈现上升趋势,但该损失在国民生产总值中占比和死亡人数则呈下降趋势。(2)3类盛行路径热带气旋直接经济损失具有区域性差别。近海转向热带气旋登陆中国的数目少、灾害轻,西行和西北行的热带气旋登陆中国的数目多、范围广、灾害重。其中西行热带气旋主要影响广东、广西和海南,西北行热带气旋主要影响广东、福建和浙江。(3)台风潜在风险影响因子—热带气旋陆上平均持续时间,近几十年来增加趋势显著,但不同盛行路径陆上平均持续时间增加原因不一。...
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This study analyzes decadal modulation of trans-basin variability (TBV) on extended boreal summer (May-October) tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the western North Pacific (WNP), central-eastern North Pacific (CENP) and North Atlantic (NATL) basins. There are distinct decadal regimes (P1:1979-1997, P2:1998-2008, and P3:2009-2019) with changes i...
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Plain Language Summary About four tropical cyclones (TCs) form every July in the western North Pacific (WNP), exerting significant societal and economic impacts on the Asian islands and coastal regions. However, no TCs formed in July 2020, which had never happened in historical records. The unprecedented absence of TC formation indicates its possib...
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This study investigates the role of the interannual variation of boreal winter (December–February) snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSC) in modulating the relationship between the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the following boreal summer (June–October). During the boreal s...
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In November 2019, tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific reached its record high. In this study, the possible causes and formation mechanisms of that record high TC frequency are investigated by analyzing the effect of large-scale environmental factors. A comparison between the extremely active TC years and extremely inactiv...
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This study examines extended boreal summer (May–October) tropical cyclogenesis events (TCGEs) associated with large-scale flow patterns (LFPs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) between 1979–1997 and 1998–2012. WNP TCGEs are objectively identified to be associated with five LFPs [e.g., monsoon shear line (SL), monsoon confluence region (CR), mons...
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This study highlights the distinct modulation of May-October tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP) and North Atlantic (NATL) basins by tropical trans-basin variability (TBV) and ENSO. The pure TBV significantly modulates total TC counts in all three basins, with more TCs in the WNP and ENP and fewer...
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This paper introduces the experimental designs and outputs of the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK), historical, Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (MIP), and Paleoclimate MIP (PMIP) experiments from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM3). Results show that NES...
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Previous numerical simulations have focused mainly on the mesoscale structure of the principal rainband in tropical cyclones with a relatively coarse model resolution. In this study, the principal rainband was simulated in a semi-idealized experiment at a horizontal grid spacing of 1/9 km and its convective-scale structure was examined by comparing...
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The projected monsoon hydrological sensitivity, namely, the precipitation change rate per kelvin of global warming, shows substantial intermodel spread among 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. The hydrological sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is negatively correlated with that of the Southern Hemisphere su...
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To better understand the climate response under stabilized, overshoot, and transient global warming, four types of ensemble experiments on 1.5 °C/2 °C global warming scenarios (i.e., stabilized 1.5 °C, 1.5 °C overshoot, stabilized 2 °C, and transient 2 °C) are elaborately designed using the Nanjing University Information Science and Technology Eart...
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A conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on summertime (May-October) Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) track density anomalies during 1970-2012. The first leading EOF mode is characterized by a consistent spatial distribution across the WNP basin, which is closely related to an El Niño-Southern Oscill...
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This study examines the possible impact of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the proportion of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) (PRITC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the extended boreal summer (July-November). There is a robust inter-annual association (r = 0.46) between TIO SSTAs and...
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Understanding variations in tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCS) is of great importance for islands and coastal regions since it is an important factor in determining the TC-induced local damages. While investigating the long-term change in TCS was usually subjected to substantial limitations in the quality of historical TC records, here w...
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Strong vertical motion (>10 m s−1) has profound implications for tropical cyclone (TC) structure changes and intensity. While extreme updrafts in the TC are occasionally observed in real TCs, the associated small-scale features remain unclear. Based on an analysis of the extreme eyewall updrafts in two numerical experiments conducted with the Advan...
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This study examines interdecadal changes in the interannual relationship between the extended boreal summer (May–November) tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) latitude and longitude over the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP) during 1979–2016. Increasing covariability of WNP TCG latitude and longitude is observed since 1998, which is found to be closely lin...
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This study examines the association between the western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon (WNPSM) and WNP tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during June–August from 1979 to 2016. The interannual relationship between the WNPSM and the total number of WNP TCs has strengthened since 1998. There has also been a significant reduction in the number of TCs...
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The study of the inter‐annual and intra‐seasonal modulation of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) basin has received significant attention in the past. Most previous studies have focused on the individual impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on TCG, while the combined effect of ENS...
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Tropical cloud clusters (TCCs) play a critical role in sustaining tropical large-scale systems and are traditionally viewed as precursors for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. This study focuses on the decadal changes in genesis productivity (GP), e.g. the efficiency of TCCs developing into TCs, and shows a significant decrease in GP over the western...
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Most studies have focused on variations of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, intensity, and track over the western North Pacific (WNP), while variability of WNP TC season onset date (TCSO) has been less studied. Recent research has indicated a close association between WNP TCSO and sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean and the...
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The tropical cyclone (TC)-centric approach developed in previous studies tends to overemphasize the direct impact of tropical waves and underestimates their large-scale modulation of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclogenesis (TCG). To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a new approach based on empirical orthogonal function analy...
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The present paper uses the satellite era data from 1979 to 2015 to examine the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the boreal summer from June to August. It is found that WNP TC variability is characterized by two major feature changes: (1) a significant redu...
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Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965–2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) meth...
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This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979–2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979–1997), a moderately positiv...
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Tropical cloud clusters (TCCs) are traditionally viewed as precursors of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Most studies have focused on the impact of the extended boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP), while the modulation of the ISO on WNP TCC genesis productivity (TCCGP), that is, the ratio...
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Previous studies found that tropical cyclone (TC) formation is generally suppressed over the western North Pacific (WNP) following strong El Niño events. The 2015/2016 event is identified as one of the three major El Niño events since 1950. However, a climatological average of 26 named TCs occurred over the WNP in 2016. The plausible causes for thi...
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A significant increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones undergoing rapid intensification at least once during their lifetime (RITCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is observed since 1998 when an abrupt climate regime shift occurred. Changes of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions affecting TC activity are compared between two...
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A significant increase of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is observed over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin during the recent decades (1995-2014). In this study, the changes in large-scale controls of the NATL TC activity are compared between two periods, one before and one since 1995, when a regime change is observed. The results herein suggest tha...
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The convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves (ERWs) how to quantitatively modulate the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated systematically from observations in this study. Our results show that ERWs can exert a distinct modulation on the WNP TC genesis by altering large-scale conditions and thus significantly imp...
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Several studies have focused on the impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO, with a period between 30 and 60 days) on boreal summer tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the Eastern North Pacific (ENP) basin. The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), with a period of about 20 days, is another dominant mode of intra-seasonal variability during the b...
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The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the western North Pacific (WNP) during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found. More...
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The present study identifies an interdecadal modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the relationship between El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and typhoon activity during the late season (October–December) in the western North Pacific. The PDO is uncorrelated with ENSO during the warm phase of 1979–1997, while the PDO is positivel...
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This study focuses on the decadal variability of tropical cyclones (TC) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and how these changes are related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). It was done with the help of the Real-time Multivariate MJO index from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate...
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During boreal summer, vigorous synoptic-scale wave (SSW) activity, often evident as southeast-northwest-oriented wave trains, prevails over the western North Pacific (WNP). In spite of their active role for regional weather and climate, modeling studies on SSWs are rather limited. In this study, a comprehensive survey on climate model capability in...
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The tropical eastern North Pacific (ENP) basin exhibits very large interannual variability in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones, presenting very active (more than 20 tropical cyclones per season) and very inactive years (only eigth tropical cyclones). The large-scale factors that may influence the distinct interannual variability are...
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The intraseasonal variability of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin is explored in this study. The relation of cyclogenesis in each of the five large-scale patterns identified in recent work by Yoshida and Ishikawa is associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Confirming previous results, more events of cycloge...