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72
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Introduction
I am a crime scientist interested in crime prevention. In practice, my work involves systems modelling and simulation of crime & security events (incl. agent-based modelling, virtual reality experiment, crime scripting, design and evaluation, etc.).
My two main themes:(1) Harnessing the potential of crime intelligence analysis techniques and digital technology to better support police work.(2)Better understanding how the design of smart physical and cyber infrastructures can reduce crime risks.
Skills and Expertise
Additional affiliations
February 2006 - present
Publications
Publications (72)
Background
With the growing interest in the use of crime scripts and attack scenarios for the development of control measures comes the need for more systematic scripting methods. Information about those sequences of actions that offenders carry out to commit a given type of crime can be extremely valuable to designers as control measures may be de...
Metro rail systems (MRS) currently face a serious threat from terrorist attacks – especially through use of explosives. The threat comes at a time when scores of new MRS are under construction or at the planning stage in cities across the world. Designers of these systems need to consider ways to detect explosives without an adverse impact upon pas...
Since the so-called ‘migrant crisis’ in 2015, there has been intense policy interest around irregular migration along the Central Mediterranean Route to Europe. Despite increased research focus on this route, the details and geographical intricacies of these migration journeys have scarcely been examined. In this study, we investigate the what, whe...
Conventional police databases contain much information on cybercrime, but extracting it remains a practical challenge. This is because these databases rarely contain labels that could be used to automatically retrieve all cybercrime incidents. In this article, we present a supervised machine learning method for extracting cybercrime incidents in ca...
Ransomware attacks and the use of the dark web forums are two serious contemporary cyber-problems. These two areas have been investigated separately in the past, but there is currently a gap in our understanding with regard to the interactions between them – i.e., dark web forums that can potentially lead to ransomware activities. The rise of Ranso...
Publication from a Defra funded project. We were developing an understanding of any possible links between HWRC booking systems and incidents of fly-tipping. This included:
- Why do Local Authorities (LAs) use booking systems?
- What are pros and cons of booking systems to LAs?
- Do LAs have any evidence that shows any links between booking systems...
This study aims to improve our understanding of criminal accomplice selection by studying the evolution of co-offending networks—i.e., networks that connect those who commit crimes together. To this end, we tested four growth mechanisms (popularity, reinforcement, reciprocity, and triadic closure) on three components observed in a network connectin...
H1>Introduction The script-theoretic approach was proposed by Cornish (1994) as a way to generate and organize knowledge about crime. It involves creating event models known as crime scripts and was developed to complement existing environmental criminology theories and provide new tools for problem-oriented policing (Goldstein 1979). Since the int...
Aims: The study aims at improving our understanding of how co-offending networks evolve - i.e., networks connecting those who co-executed crimes. To this end, we tested four growth mechanisms that explain how social networks evolved on three co-offending networks observed in Bogotá (Colombia) between 2005 and 2018. These mechanisms are popularity (...
We measured triadic closure in co-offending networks – i.e., the tendency of two individuals to co-offend if they share an accomplice – using a method that addresses the risk of overestimating clustering coefficients when using one-mode projections. We also assess the statistical significance of clustering coefficients using null models. The data r...
This project gathers important new data exploring five general themes, which will enable a more complete picture to be drawn of how to better tackle fly-tipping. These include:
• Why people fly-tip, and more generally how they decide what to do with their waste.
• The impacts of fly-tipping.
• What LAs in England, central government and landowners...
Note this is the summary report. The full report can be found on RG as well.
This project gathers important new data exploring five general themes, which will enable a more complete picture to be drawn of how to better tackle fly-tipping. These include:
• Why people fly-tip, and more generally how they decide what to do with their waste.
• The im...
In this paper, the decision-making processes of victims during ransomware attacks were analysed. Forty-one ransomware attacks using qualitative data collected from organisations and police officers from cybercrime units in the UK were examined. The hypothesis tested in this paper is that victims carefully analyse the situation before deciding wheth...
The increasing call for harm-focused approaches warrants a method for assessing the harm of organized crime. A harm assessment of organized crime can be of use to law enforcement agencies for prioritizing efforts and designing policies that aim to counter organized crimes based on the harm they cause. It can also be used by other institutions that...
The increasing call for harm-focused approaches warrants a method for assessing the harm of organized crime. A harm assessment of organized crime can be of use to law enforcement agencies for prioritizing efforts and designing policies that aim to counter organized crimes based on the harm they cause. It can also be used by other institutions that...
Digital technology now plays a critical role in policing and security management, with policing apps, drones and body- worn cameras potentially being game-changers. Adoption of such technologies is, however, not straightforward and depends upon the buy-in of senior management teams and users. This study examines what obstacles practitioners face in...
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s11292-021-09486-7.].
Digital technology now plays a critical role in policing and security management, with policing apps, drones and body-worn cameras potentially being game-changers. Adoption of such technologies is, however, not straightforward and depends upon the buy-in of senior management teams and users. This study examines what obstacles practitioners face in...
Objectives
The study examines the variation in the daily incidence of eight acquisitive crimes: automobile theft, electromobile theft, motorcycle theft, bicycle theft, theft from automobiles, pickpocketing, residential burglary, and cyber-fraud before the lockdown and the duration of the lockdown for a medium-sized city in China.
Methods
Regressio...
Unanticipated accumulation and dissemination of accurate location information flows is the latest iteration of the privacy debate. This mixed-methods research contributes a grounded understanding of risk perceptions, enablers and barriers to privacy preserving behaviour in a cyber-physical environment. We conducted the first representative survey o...
Illegal activities concerning terrestrial species (TS) are responsible for a variety of health, environmental, economic and security issues. The majority of academic research associated with species relates to conservation, with few publications specifically investigating the scale of crimes impacting species or how they can be prevented. This arti...
In this paper, we explore decision-making processes of ransomware victims, focusing on organisations. We examine 39 ransomware attacks using qualitative data collected from victims and police officers from cybercrime units in the UK. A basic premise of this paper is that victims make rational decisions to (not) pay ransoms. Their decision-making pr...
This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation a...
In this paper, we explore decision-making processes of ransomware victims, focusing on organisations. We examine 39 ransomware attacks using qualitative data collected from victims and police officers from cybercrime units in the UK. A basic premise of this paper is that victims make rational decisions to (not) pay ransoms. Their decision-making pr...
This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation a...
The implementation of smart technology in cities is often hailed as the solution to many urban challenges such as transportation, waste management, and environmental protection. Issues of security and crime prevention, however, are in many cases neglected. Moreover, when researchers do introduce new smart security technologies, they rarely discuss...
The focus on cyber security as an interaction between technical elements and humans has typically confined consideration of the latter to practical issues of implementation, conventionally those of ‘human performance factors’ of vigilance etc., ‘raising awareness’ and/or ‘incentivization’ of people and organizations to participate and adapt their b...
The focus on cyber security as an interaction between technical elements and humans has typically confined consideration of the latter to practical issues of implementation, conventionally those of ‘human performance factors’ of vigilance etc., ‘raising awareness’ and/or ‘incentivization’ of people and organizations to participate and adapt their b...
Wildlife crime is an international issue with the illicit trade of flora and fauna estimated to be worth several billion dollars. In national parks, the problem can often be summarised as an arms race, with poachers trying to remain undetected by park rangers and other security personnel that are trying to protect the natural habitat and species fr...
More than two decades after the publication of Cornish’s seminal work about the script-theoretic approach to crime analysis, this article examines how the concept has been applied in our community. The study provides evidence confirming that the approach is increasingly popular; and takes stock of crime scripting practices through a systematic revi...
In his 2018 Stockholm prize winner lecture, Goldstein highlighted the need for Problem-Oriented Policing to be not only effective but also fair. Contributing to the development of POP, this study examines how a wider perspective on problem-solving generally, and scoping in particular, can be adopted to address some of the growing challenges in 21st...
Gait is one biological characteristic which has attracted strong research interest due to its potential use in human identification. Although almost two decades have passed since a forensic gait expert has testified to the identity of a perpetrator in court, the methods remain insufficiently robust, considering the recent paradigm shift witnessed i...
National and local governments must continuously adapt counter-terrorism strategies to new and evolving threats. With limited budgets, security architects and planners across the world face the same recurrent challenge: specifying a portfolio of effective measures and detailing where and when to deploy those. To perform this difficult task, methods...
This chapter examines the contribution of engineering sciences to crime reduction. Beginning with a conceptual discussion about what engineering is, the chapter then uses the concept of system to draw links between engineering and crime reduction. It points to the fact that contemporary systems cannot be neatly divided between purely physical and p...
This chapter focuses on crime prevention in relation to architecture as a discipline and as built material environment. It discusses earlier research and presents developments from the EU project ‘Resilient Infrastructure and Building Security’ (RIBS). In the chapter, we insist on the term ‘architecture’ (instead of the ostensibly more neutral term...
This chapter examines the contribution of engineering sciences to crime reduction. Beginning with a conceptual discussion about what engineering is, the chapter then uses the concept of system to draw links between engineering and crime reduction. It points to the fact that contemporary systems cannot be neatly divided between purely physical and p...
The article Sexual harassment of students on public transport: an exploratory study in Lucknow, India written by K. Tripathi, H. Borrion and J. Belur was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 7 September 2017 without open access.
Integral to the development of the next generation of problem-solving multi-disciplinary Crime Scientists is the ability to put these skills into practice in the workplace. During the creation of the BSc Security and Crime Science it was decided that a Professional Practice module would allow the students to translate the theoretical and analytical...
Studies suggest that incidents of sexual harassment are common occurrence on public transport in India, but there is little reliable data to understand and tackle the problem. This research explores actual and witnessed victimisations as well as perceptions of the risk by a sample of 200 tertiary female students in Lucknow, India. Consistent with l...
In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the modelling of crime commission processes, in particular crime scripting, in physical and cyber spaces. This article aims to demonstrate the limits of unstructured scripting approaches, and advocates the development of more systematic techniques. For this, we examined he differences and simila...
The influence of products and urban structures on citizens’ security has been explored and exploited across civilisations. Rarely, though, has the research in this field been as vibrant as now. Examples of research and development work can be found in many disciplines and on various scales. They concern the design of street furniture to prevent bic...
Metal theft has become an increasingly common crime in recent years, but lack of data has limited research into it. The present study used police-recorded crime data to study the spatial and temporal concentration of metal theft from the railway network of Great Britain. Metal theft was found to exhibit only weak seasonality, to be concentrated at...
Explosives pose a major threat to urban metro rail systems. Train drivers are therefore expected to regularly perform security procedures in response to reports of suspicious items on the train. This study was conducted to develop a multi-factorial account of deviation from one such security procedure by train drivers. By analysing data from focus...
Crime rates are known to be affected by changes in crime opportunity structures. Amongst the current causes of change are emerging technologies, and in particular, micro unmanned aerial vehicles (micro UAV). As those devices are becoming increasingly sophisticated, the perceived rewards, difficulties and risks associated with the commission of cert...
This paper presents the use of micro-Doppler signatures collected by a multistatic radar to detect and discriminate between micro-drones hovering and flying while carrying different payloads, which may be an indication of unusual or potentially hostile activities. Different features have been extracted and tested, namely features related to the Rad...
Many transport organizations now regard regular employees as important contributors to their security strategies. For this reason, it is essential to understand the interaction between service and security tasks. There is empirical evidence, for example, that workers under pressure to be punctual make more errors in the performance of safety proced...
This letter presents preliminary results on the use of multistatic radar and micro-Doppler analysis to detect and discriminate between micro- drones hovering carrying different payloads. Two suitable features related to the centroid of the micro-Doppler signature have been identified and used to perform classification, investigating also the added...
As demonstrated throughout this book, the risk of certain types of crime can increase in congested spaces. Contact crimes, crimes which require the offender to make physical contact with the victim, are especially common in more crowded transport networks and can discourage many would-be passengers (Brand and Price, 2000). Pickpocketing makes up a...
Security decision-making is a critical task in tackling security threats affecting a system or process. It often involves selecting a suitable resolution action to tackle an identified security risk. To support this selection process, decision-makers should be able to evaluate and compare available decision options. This article introduces a modell...
According to Moore's law, increases in computing power are roughly exponential over time. As a consequence, the application of computational methods to old and new problems becomes ever more possible, even with desktop computing. Such methods, and in particular computer simulation, have considerable potential in the study of crime but their applica...
Modelling and simulation techniques offer a comprehensive method for assessing the impact of a terrorist attack, allowing multiple scenarios to be simulated with ease without imposing extensive time or cost constraints. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive model for the different categories of users who are likely to be involved in t...
In this article the authors derive an object-oriented model for structuring threat scenarios. Underpinned by the core principles of realistic evaluation, the model focuses on the specification of events related to the goals of the protagonists. For the development of the model, relevant objects within the ecosystem were specified, and the potential...
Probabilistic risk assessment provides a practical approach for assessing the security capabilities of systems. Terrorism risk assessment requires estimation of the probabilities and consequences of hypothetical attacks against a target. In order to address the interdependencies between the different elements present in the target environment we pr...
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to identify and evaluate the risk of terrorist attacks in complex technological security systems in order to improve their safety and performance. PRA requires determining the probabilities and consequences of a number of potential scenarios. In this paper, a dynamic generation of event tree to m...
This article examines some of the ethical issues that engineers face in developing bio-protection systems for smart buildings. An innovative approach based on four different containment strategies is used to identify these issues. Subsequent analysis shows that, whilst smart buildings have the potential to prioritize the safety of the group over th...
form only given. Systems engineering requires a good understanding of user needs. For security systems, the potentially large number of threats and the diverse conditions that a product may experience can create practical challenges for those in charge of developing system requirements. The complexity involved in carrying out this task can be reduc...
In this paper, we extend the estimation of scattering centre parameters to the case of ISAR imaging. The representation of a target by a set of individual scattering centres has shown promising results for applications where high resolution is needed (high-resolution imaging, classification, NCTR). In practice, methods extract time-delay and amplit...
In this paper, we consider the estimation of scattering centre parameters for the case of extended targets. In general, models are tested on synthetic targets made up of few scatterers. This choice is imposed by the maximum model-order assumed by the method. It is limited by the rank of the observation matrix and by the noise which corrupts the sig...
New beam lines are presently under construction for ELSA, a 18 MeV electron linac located at Bruyeres-Le-Chatel. These lines need a beam position measurement system filling the following requirements: small space occupancy, good sensitivity, wide dynamic range (more than 90 dB), high noise immunity, single-bunch/multibunch capability. We designed a...
In this paper, the authors derive the specifications for a security system capable to detect so-called suspicious human activities using an affordable network of radar sensors. This work constitutes a first step towards the development of a robust day-and-night twenty-four hour surveillance system performing real-time automatic detection of terrori...