Gustavo Britto

Federal University of Minas Gerais | UFMG · Department of Economics

The paper presents an original application of economic complexity to the agricultural sector aiming to determine its suitability to measure and depict regional structural inequalities across Brazilian regions. Using census data, we calculate agricultural complexity indexes for products (PCI-Agro) and regions (ECI-Agro) and the agricultural product...

As discussões sobre a política de desoneração da folha salarial retornaram aos noticiários em decorrência do veto, em outubro de 2023, pelo presidente Lula ao projeto de lei que previa a prorrogação da medida até 2027. Porém, a retomada do debate público não veio acompanhada do rigor técnico adequado para analisar a complexidade da lei e seus efeit...

This paper contributes to the literature on economic relatedness and diversification in Brazil. It uses firm-level, occupational data to estimate the relationship between regions’ diversification, the degree of relatedness, and economic complexity indexes. Given that the current literature often focuses on a single variable, a new relatedness measu...

Nota Técnica 01/2024 - GPPD Cedeplar

This paper aims to empirically investigate the relationship between sectoral unit labor costs and markups for the Brazilian economy from 2000 to 2013. The underlying hypothesis is that labor costs are the sole determinant of a firm's competitiveness, a notion that has been widely accepted as conventional wisdom despite the lack of empirical evidenc...

Os danos ambientais gerados pelas atividades econômicas e institucionais são preocupações recorrentes na pauta econômica atual. Nesse quesito, a inovação é o papel-chave para que os países encontrem respostas diante dos desafios ambientais e, simultaneamente, promovam oportunidades para esses novos estímulos. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é iden...

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a associação entre estrutura urbana e níveis salariais na indústria de transformação brasileira. Entendendo que a dinâmica locacional é variável com a intensidade tecnológica da indústria, o artigo subdivide a indústria em quatro categorias e analisa como o território condiciona a dinâmica salarial para cada uma...

This paper aims to discuss the theory of productivity growth and its empirical applications, several authors emphasize the impact of real exchange rate devaluation on productivity. The main research question is: does the real exchange rate have a positive or negative impact on productivity growth? The first step in answering this question is to dis...

Innovation has a key role in encourage technology improvements so that countries are able to find answers to environmental challenges. For this reason, paradigm shifts call for systematic efforts to address the problems which productive technologies and systems are not able to solve. This work aimed identify the specific scientific and technologica...

The paper investigates whether productivity growth is affected by the rate of growth of income and by that of employment for a representative sample of Latin American countries from the 1980s to the early 2010s. Having post-Kaleckian models as background, the paper empirically assesses the relationship between these variables, which are believed to...

La inversión en investigación y desarrollo (I+D), infraestructura y tecnología constituye una alternativa posible para los países en desarrollo que desean acelerar su trayectoria de crecimiento. En el caso del Brasil, reducir la brecha tecnológica requiere modificar la estructura productiva y aumentar la productividad, mediante la endogenización de...

Technological composition and productive diversification are distinguishing features of countries' long-term growth trajectories. Investing in research and development (R&D), infrastructure and technology is a possible alternative for developing countries looking to accelerate their growth trajectory. In the case of Brazil, the production structure...

Este artigo foi originalmente publicado como introdução à nova edição revisada em português da obra clássica editada por A. N. Agarwala e S. P. Singh, A Economia do Subdesenvolvimento (Agarwala e Singh, 2010). O livro faz parte da série Desenvolvimento e Política Pública, publicada pelo Centro Internacional Celso Furtado de Políticas para o Desenvo...

The purpose of this research is to analyze whether the Brazilian economy behaved under a wage-led or profit-led regime between 1960 and 2011, considering a Post-Kaleckian model in a context of external constraints. The time span is limited by data availability (i.e., 2011). To answer the question of whether the Brazilian economy works under a wage-...

The internationalization of science and technology (S&T) has increased in the last few decades, and magnified the tension between national systems of innovation (NSIs) and transnational technology. This internationalization of science and technology has two main drivers : the cosmopolitan nature of science, which connects universities from differen...

Esse estudo avalia a relevância dos instrumentos de incentivo às exportações, Adiantamento de Contrato de Câmbio (ACC) e Pagamento Antecipado das Exportações (PAE), entre 2004 e 2011, no Brasil. Supondo que a rentabilidade das exportações e o estímulo para exportar dependem não somente do nível da taxa de câmbio real e da renda mundial, mas também...

Balance of payments constrained growth models are notable for their longevity. This is especially true for the case of Thirlwall»s Law, which defines that a country»s sustainable growth rate is given by the ratio between the income elasticity of exports and that of imports. In light of this, the current paper explores the hypothesis that the income...

This paper uses the product space methodology to gain new perspectives on the relationship between economic complexity and economic development, illustrated by case studies of Brazil and the Republic of Korea. It takes import data as an indicator of revealed comparative disadvantage to highlight the relevance of the local market. Product space netw...

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar, pós-2008, a distribuição do emprego industrial brasileiro no território, conectando as transformações observadas a fatores locacionais, geradores de dinâmica do reordenamento territorial. Sua contribuição está na caracterização territorial recente do emprego industrial em diálogo com a capacidade de indivíduos...

En este artículo se utiliza la metodología del espacio de productos para analizar la relación entre la complejidad económica y el desarrollo económico en el Brasil y la República de Corea. Se toman los datos de importación como indicador de la desventaja comparativa revelada para destacar la relevancia del mercado local, se presenta el espacio de p...

This paper applies the methodology of economic complexity to study the connection between economic complexity and development in four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. The paper shows that, with the exception of Mexico (and its maquiladoras), the countries remained exporting mainly primary products, with an increase in...

The aim of the present work is to assess and capture the specific interactions related to the environment and technology of developed and developing countries, in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The database used factors related to environmental innovation activity, degree of economic development, conditions of infrastructure, alternative energy production ca...

João P. Romero and Gustavo Britto in this chapter, titled ‘Sophistication, Productivity and Trade: A Sectoral Investigation’, argue that in balance-of-payments-constrained growth models, income elasticities of exports and imports are the crucial parameters determining the long-term growth rate. Consequently, it is critical to understand what determ...

This research analyses, from a Post-Kaleckian perspective, the interactions among the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity and real wages in the Brazilian economy from 1960 to 2011. It adopts the longstanding perspective that demand is the driver of capital accumulation and economic growth. The research comprises the following ste...

The article assesses the work of Celso Furtado (1920-2004) in the 1970s, when the author promotes an ambitious attempt to redefine the field of development economics. Furtado’s works have recently been revisited by several authors, including in the field of history of economic thought. The text is devoted to explore how the author challenges develo...

This paper examines the importance of output growth and research intensity for productivity growth. Two hypotheses are tested. First, the paper investigates the impact of the two variables on productivity growth when simultaneously considered, assessing whether the basic Kaldorian and Schumpeterian models can be combined. Second, it examines whethe...

To better understand the economic and social transformations of a heterogeneous group of countries a possible alternative would be to regard at their technological dynamics. Given that traditional economic indicators say little about their innovation capacity, this present study attempt to build an aggregate indicator for their national systems of...

Artigo Os danos ambientais gerados pelas atividades econômicas e institucionais são preocupações recorrentes na atualidade. Nesse quesito, a inovação é o papel chave para que os países encontrem respostas diante dos desafios ambientais e, simultaneamente, promovam oportunidades para esses novos estímulos. Assim, o objetivo deste artigo é identifica...

Homensagem a Rodrigo Ferreira Simões.

The paper proposes and tests an alternative way to incorporate a spatial dimension to the Verdoorn Law using multilevel models, tailored to deal with nested data. This methodology allows extending the Verdoorn equation, incorporating elements from Urban Economics to Post-Keynesian growth analysis. The estimations used firm-level data from the Brazi...

Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo consistiu em incorporar especial detalhamento das Famílias, segundo 10 classes de renda, a uma Matriz de Contabilidade Social e Financeira (MCS-F) para o Brasil em 2005. Empregou-se um modelo de Contabilidade Social, a partir do qual computaram-se multiplicadores e os impactos do Programa Bolsa Família (BF) sobre PIB...

Esse artigo utiliza a metodologia desenvolvida por Hidalgo et al. (2007), Hausman et al. (2007) e Hidalgo e Hausmann (2009) para analisar a relação entre mudança estrutural, complexidade econômica e intensidade tecnológica em Portugal. Para isso, o artigo constrói redes do espaço do produto decenais e analisa indicadores de (des)vantagens comparati...

The goal of this paper is to empirically analyse the relationship between the real exchange rate and the growth rate of output. Firstly, we calculate an index of real exchange rate undervaluation, following the relevant literature. Then, using unbalanced (balanced) panel data techniques, we estimate the effect of this index on the rate of output gr...

Apesar de sua relativa escassez, estudos do nível e da variação da produtividade em nível desagregado no Brasil se dividem, de maneira geral, em quatro grandes linhas. Em primeiro lugar, destacam-se os trabalhos que subdividem dados agregados, das contas nacionais ou pesquisas anuais, por estados ou grandes regiões. Nesse grupo, encontram-se também...

The present paper expands the approach developed by Hidalgo et al. (2007), Hausmann et al. (2007) and Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) to analyse the relationship between structural change and economic sophistication. To do so, the paper shows product space networks for each decade since the 1960’s and analyses revealed comparative (dis)advantages indic...

The article empirically analyses the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and growth rate of output. We first estimate the effect of the index of RER undervaluation on the rate of output growth in two samples of countries from 1978 to 2007. Our contribution is the use of a different dataset that increases the number of countries in the sam...

The literature on Global Innovation Networks has contributed to identify changes in the innovation activities of multinational corporations. Although university-firm interactions are seen as an important factor for the emergence of GINs, their role has received limited atten- tion. This paper aims to fill this gap in two ways. First, it carries out...

RESUMO: O objetivo desse artigo é desenvolver um modelo capaz de incorporar os principais problemas enfrentados pelos países periféricos, formalizando sua estrutura e descrevendo seu processo de desenvolvimento. Embora o foco do trabalho seja a dinâmica de funcionamento das economias subdesenvolvidas, é possível verificar que o modelo é também capa...

Interactions between firms and universities are key building blocks of innovation systems. This book focuses on those interactions in developing countries, presenting studies based on fresh empirical material prepared by research teams in 12 countries from three continents. The result is a more universal and dynamic view of the shaping and reshapin...

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the impact of selected export promoting policies on the real exchange rate in Brazil. Currently, there are a number of policy instruments that generate fiscal and financial benefits to Brazilian exporters. These instruments can be viewed as mechanisms to alter the real exchange rate with which exporters...

This paper presents a new methodology to describe global innovations networks. Using 167,315 USPTO patents granted in 2009 and the papers they cited, this methodology shows “scientific footprints of technology” that cross national boundaries, and how multinational enterprises interact globally with universities and other firms. The data and the map...

Esse artigo expande a aplicação da abordagem da complexidade originalmente formulada por Hidalgo et al (2007) para analisar a evolução da estrutura econômica brasileira a partir de dados de comércio. A principal contribuição do artigo é a adoção da classificação tecnológica dos produtos desenvolvida por Lall (2000) como referência para a análise. A...

This paper investigates interactions between firms and universities in a global context. The point of departure is a review of the ever-evolving literature on innovation. Three major strands of the literature can be identified: interactions between firms and universities, transnational corporations and their global reach, and more recently, global...

This paper presents growth models based on Kaldor´s inaugural lectures, as well as their most recent extensions. Beyond the display of the evolution of such models, the paper intends to demonstrate that the original kaldorian models have served as a solid foundation over which new formulations have been built, continually demonstrating the relevanc...

A partir da concepção de Hirschman sobre desenvolvimento regional, o objetivo deste artigo é analisar a interdependência produtiva da economia baiana, no intuito de apontar estratégias para seu desenvolvimento. Para isso, utiliza-se uma matriz de insumo-produto, ano base 2004, constituída de duas regiões e 20 setores. Os resultados apontaram sete s...

This is an addendum to Britto and McCombie (2009), in which more appropriate procedures are used to test for the long-run relationship between actual growth rates for Brazil and the hypothetical balance-of-payments growth rates. The results confirm the original conclusions.

Internationalization of R&D towards developing countries has created innovation network configurations that are truly global. These global innovation networks (GINs) are set up in developing countries for technological or market reasons. Sometimes firms in a country are integrated for market reasons, and are responsible only for the adaptation of p...

The paper explores the relationship between the income elasticities of demand for exports and for imports, economic growth, the technological content of local production, and the level of development of the National Innovation System (NIS). According to the literature, differences in long-run growth rates are associated with differences in the inco...

The article assesses the work of Celso Furtado (1920-2004) in the 1970s, when the author promotes an ambitious attempt to redefine the field of development economics. Furtado's works have recently been revisited by several authors, including in the field of history of economic thought. The text is devoted to explore how the author challenges develo...

This paper aims to broaden the horizon as well as to shed further light on the studies of interaction between firms and universities in a global context. Its starting point is thus a review of two different strands of the literature on innovation. First, the literature on interaction by Klevorick et al (1995) and Nelson (1993), and second, the more...

During the 1990s, the Brazilian automotive industry had undergone some profound changes in its structure, with economic liberalization, the New Automotive Regime, new assemblers and autoparts plants and its insertion in the global strategies of multinational companies. Research, development and engineering (R,D&E) activities in local firms had also...

The paper carries out an exploratory analysis of the determinants of the level of investment of manufacturing firms in Brazil, from 1996 to 2006. The exercise departed from the premise that investment responds both to internal and external factors, such as the sector in which each firm is embedded. From a simple accelerator model, pooled and panel...

O fim da hegemonia inglesa, duas guerras mundiais, a depressão de 1929 o colapso dos impérios coloniais e o surgimento de inúmeros países novos e pobres, que viriam a formar o chamado Terceiro Mundo, convergiram, na segunda metade do século XX, para provocar uma profunda revisão de conceitos e doutrinas em economia. A caracterização do subdesenvolv...

This paper uses the balance-of-payments-constrained model to estimate the determinants of the long-run rate of growth of Brazil. Contrary to previous tests for the country found in the literature, this paper uses a different approach to test the long-run relationship between actual growth rates and those predicted by Thirlwall's law, extended to in...

The paper proposes and tests an alternative way to study the determinants of the rate of productivity growth of firms from the manufacturing industry using a multilevel model, tailored to treat clustered data. The methodology allows us to simultaneously consider factors that are proper to firms individually and those related to each firm's location...

This paper revisits Verdoorn's Law and issues related to its estimation using micro-data. Using a large panel of firms from the Brazilian manufacturing industry from 1996 to 2002, the exercise finds compelling evidence of increasing returns to scale in such a low level of aggregation using different specifications. The results were strengthened by...

The paper proposes and tests an alternative way to incorporate a spatial dimension to the Verdoorn Law using multilevel models, tailored to deal with nested data. This methodology allows extending the Verdoorn equation, incorporating elements from Urban Economics. The estimations used firm-level data from the Brazilian manufacturing industry from 1...

A conquista de sucessivos e crescentes superávits na balança comercial a partir do ano 2000 e, de forma mais pronunciada, a partir de 2002, trouxe a questão do comércio exterior, mais uma vez, ao centro do debate político e econômico. As causas desse crescimento do saldo comercial são objeto de intensa discussão. Uma das linhas de argumentação adot...

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O debate acerca da abertura comercial brasileira ocupou grande parte da produção acadêmica nos anos 90. Com efeito, a abertura do mercado interno representava o momento final de um longo processo de industrialização no qual a proteção do mercado doméstico, aliada à realização ordenada de investimentos com o objetivo de internalizar progressivamente...

El propósito central de este libro es brindar información y elementos analíticos que sean útiles para elaborar respuestas a interrogantes sobre el bloque como medio para la integración. Además de realizar un balance de lo ocurrido con la integración en la última década, se evalúan las perspectivas y se discuten propuestas. Se abarcan prácticamente...

This paper uses the balance-of-payments constrained theory to estimate the determinants of the long run rate of growth in Brazil. Contrary to the tests of the theory for the country present in the literature, the paper using a methodology to test the long-run relationship between actual growth rates and those predicted by Thirlwall's Law extended t...

A proposta deste artigo é explorar alguns dos nexos causais entre o desenvolvimento do Sistema Nacional de Inovação (SI), as elasticidades-renda da demanda do comércio exterior e o crescimento econômico. Mais especificamente, procura-se mostrar como as diferenças nas taxas de crescimento do produto estão associadas a diferentes elasticidades-renda,...