Guillaume Evin

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French National Institute for Agriculture, Food, and Environment (INRAE) | INRAE · Institut des géosciences de l'environnement (IGE)

Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the stati...

In this study, we analyze how precipitation, antecedent conditions, and their spatial patterns and interactions lead to extreme floods in a large catchment. The analysis is based on 10 000 years of continuous simulations from a hydro-meteorological modelling chain for a large catchment, the Aare River basin, Switzerland. To account for different fl...

The increasing frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes poses a serious challenge for societies that must adapt to a changing climate. Communicating these changes in terms of their magnitude at a given lead time (e.g., 2100) or at a given level of global warming (e.g., +2 °C) can give the misleading impression that climate change is a dist...

In mountainous areas, accurately estimating the long‐term climatology of seasonal precipitations is challenging due to the lack of high‐altitude rain gauges and the complexity of the topography. This study addresses these challenges by interpolating seasonal precipitation data from 3189 rain gauges across France over the 1982–2018 period, using geo...

Continuous hydrological simulation is a powerful approach for generating long-term series of river discharges used for hydrological analyses. This approach requires as inputs precipitation time series generated by a stochastic weather generator (WGEN) to simulate discharge time series. For small catchments where a lumped hydrological model is suita...

IPCC reports and climate change impact studies generally exploit ensembles of climate projections based on different socio-economic pathways and climate models, which provide the temporal evolution of plausible future climates. However, The Paris Agreement and many national and international commitments consider adaptation and mitigation plans targ...

Seasonal precipitation estimation in ungauged mountainous areas is essential for understanding and modeling a physical variable of interest in many environmental applications (hydrology, ecology, and cryospheric studies). Precipitation lapse rates (PLRs), defined as the increasing or decreasing rate of precipitation amounts with the elevation, play...

In this study, we analyze how precipitation, antecedent conditions, and their spatial patterns and interactions lead to extreme floods in a large catchment. The analysis is based on 10,000 years of continuous simulations from a hydro-meteorological model chain for a large catchment, the Aare river basin, Switzerland. To account for different flood-...

IPCC reports and climate change impact studies generally exploit ensembles of climate projections based on different socio-economic pathways and climate models, which provide the temporal evolution of plausible future climates. However, The Paris Agreement and many national and international commitments consider adaptation and mitigation plans targ...

Hydrological modelling of small mountainous catchments is particularly challenging because of the high spatio-temporal resolution required for the meteorological forcings. In situ measurements of precipitation are typically scarce in these remote areas, particularly at high elevations. Precipitation reanalyses propose different alternative forcings...

Seasonal precipitation estimation in ungauged mountainous areas is essential for understanding and modeling a physical variable of interest in many environmental applications (hydrology, ecology, cryospheric studies). Precipitation Lapse Rates (PLRs), defined as the increasing or decreasing rate of precipitation amounts with the elevation, play a d...

At the end of February 2018 the Mediterranean area of Montpellier in France was struck by a significant snowfall that turned into an intense rain event caused by an exceptional atmospheric situation. This rain-on-snow event produced pronounced damage to many buildings of different types. In this study, we report a detailed back analysis of the roof...

Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation, an increase in extreme snowfall may be expected in cold regions, e.g., for high latitudes or at high elevations. By contrast, in low- to medium-elevation areas, the probability of experiencing rainfall instead of snowfall is generally projected to increase due to warming conditions. Yet, in...

Analytical multiplicative random cascades (MRCs) are widely used for the temporal disaggregation of coarse-resolution precipitation time series. This class of models applies scaling models to represent the dependence of the cascade generator on the temporal scale and the precipitation intensity. Although determinant, the dependence on the external...

The Alpine region is strongly affected by torrential floods, sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. In this article we propose a statistical method based on a mere discriminative index to objectively isolate t...

Large datasets of long-term streamflow measurements are widely used to infer and model hydrological processes. However, streamflow measurements may suffer from what users can consider anomalies, i.e. non-natural records that may be erroneous streamflow values or anthropogenic influences that can lead to misinterpretation of actual hydrological proc...

The ability to understand and predict sediment transport in torrent catchments is a key element for the protection and prevention against the associated hazards. In this study, we collected data describing sediment supply at 100 torrential catchments in the Northern French Alps. These catchments have long records of past events and sediment supply...

The ability to understand and predict coarse-sediment transport in torrent catchments is a key element for the protection against and prevention of the associated hazards. In this study, we collected data describing sediment supply at 99 torrential catchments in the northern French Alps. The sample covers a wide range of geomorphic activity: from t...

Hydrological modelling of small mountainous catchments is particularly challenging because of the high spatio-temporal resolution required for the meteorological forcings. In-situ measurements of precipitation are typically scarce in these remote areas, particularly at high elevations. Precipitation reanalyses propose different alternative forcings...

Snow avalanches are a prevalent threat in mountain territories. Large-scale mapping of avalanche-prone terrain is a prerequisite for land-use planning where historical information about past events is insufficient. To this aim, the most common approach is the identification of potential release areas (PRAs) followed by numerical avalanche simulatio...

Large datasets of long-term streamflow measurements are widely used to infer and model hydrological processes. However, streamflow measurements may suffer from what users can consider as anomalies, i.e., non-natural records that may be erroneous streamflow values or anthropogenic influences that can lead to misinterpretation of actual hydrological...

Analytical Multiplicative Random Cascades (MRCs) are widely used for the temporal disaggregation of coarse-resolution precipitation time series. This class of models applies simple scaling laws to represent the dependence of the cascade generator on the temporal scale and the precipitation intensity. Although determinant, the dependence on the exte...

Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation, an increase in extreme snowfall may be expected in cold regions, e.g. for high latitudes or at high elevations. By contrast, in low/medium elevation areas, the probability to experience rainfall instead of snowfall is generally projected to increase due to warming conditions. In mountainous...

The ability to understand and predict coarse sediment transport in torrent catchments is a key element for the protection and prevention against the associated hazards. In this study, we collected data describing sediment supply at 99 torrential catchments in the Northern French Alps. The sample covers a wide range of geomorphic activity: from torr...

In this article we study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run, using a database of reported occurrence of damaging torrential flooding in the Grenoble conurbation since 1851. We consider seven atmospheric variables that describe the nature of the air masses involved and...

Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative appr...

Snow avalanches are a prevalent threat in mountain territories. Large-scale mapping of avalanche prone terrain is a prerequisite for land-use planning where historical information about past events is lacunar. To this aim, the most common approach is the identification of Potential Release Areas (PRAs) followed by numerical avalanche simulations. E...

Anticipating risks related to climate extremes often relies on the quantification of large return levels (values exceeded with small probability) from climate projection ensembles. Current approaches based on multi-model ensembles (MMEs) usually estimate return levels separately for each climate simulation of the MME. In contrast, using MME obtaine...

At the end of February 2018 the Mediterranean area of Montpellier in France was struck by a significant snowfall that turned into an intense rain event caused by an exceptional atmospheric situation. This rain-on-snow event produced pronounced damages to many buildings of different types. In this study, we report a detailed back analysis of the roo...

Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative appr...

Large multiscenario multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by global climate models (GCMs) are made available worldwide and aim at providing robust estimates of climate changes and associated uncertainties. Due to many missing combinations of emission scenarios and climate models leading to sparse scenario–GC...

Anticipating risks related to climate extremes often relies on the quantification of large return levels (values exceeded with small probability) from climate projection ensembles. Current approaches based on multi-model ensembles (MMEs) usually estimate return levels separately for each chain of the MME. By contrast, using MME obtained with differ...

Height of new snow (HN) forecasts help to prevent critical failures of infrastructures in mountain areas, e.g. transport networks and ski resorts. The French national meteorological service, Météo-France, operates a probabilistic forecasting system based on ensemble meteorological forecasts and a detailed snowpack model to provide ensembles of HN f...

Climate change projections indicate that extreme snowfall is expected to increase in cold areas, i.e., at high latitudes and/or high elevation, and to decrease in warmer areas, i.e., at mid-latitudes and low elevation. However, the magnitude of these contrasting patterns of change and their precise relations to elevation at the scale of a given mou...

Remarkable episodes of avalanche events, so-called snow avalanche cycles, are recurring threats to people and infrastructures in mountainous areas. This study focuses on the hazard assessment of snow avalanche cycles defined by daily occurrence numbers exceeding the 2-year return level. To this aim, extreme value distributions are tailored to accou...

Height of new snow (HN) forecasts help to prevent critical failures of infrastructures in mountain areas, e.g. transport networks, ski resorts. The French national meteorological service, Meteo-France, operates a probabilistic forecasting system based on ensemble meteorological forecasts and a detailed snowpack model to provide ensembles of HN fore...

The Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot for water resources. However, uncertainty analyses of hydrological projections are rarely quantified. In this study, an in-depth analysis of projections and uncertainties for high and low flows is performed. Climatic projections derived from a recent downscaling method were used, for two represen...

Large Multiscenarios Multimodel Ensembles (MMEs) of regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by Global Climate Models (GCM) are made available worldwide and aim at providing robust estimates of climate changes and associated uncertainties. Due to many missing combinations of emission scenarios and climate models leading to sparse Scenario-GC...

Climate change projections indicate that extreme snowfall are expected to increase in cold areas, i.e. at high latitude and/or high elevation, and to decrease in warmer areas, i.e. at mid-latitude and low elevation. However, the magnitude of these contrasted patterns of change and their precise relations to elevation at the scale of a given mountai...

In a context of climate change, trends in extreme snow loads need to be determined to minimize the risk of structure collapse. We study trends in 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL) using non-stationary extreme value models. These trends are assessed at a mountain massif scale from GSL data, provided for the French Alps from 1959 to 201...

Natural risk studies such as flood risk assessments require long series of weather variables. As an alternative to observed series, which have a limited length, these data can be provided by weather generators. Among the large variety of existing ones, resampling methods based on analogues have the advantage of guaranteeing the physical consistency...

Over the past decades, large variations of precipitation were observed in Africa, which often led to dramatic consequences for local society and economy. To avoid such disasters in the future, it is crucial to better anticipate the expected changes, especially in the current context of climate change and population growth. To this date, however, pr...

Abstract. In a context of climate change, trends in extreme snow loads need to be determined to minimize the risk of structure collapse.We study trends in annual maxima of ground snow load (GSL) using non-stationary extreme value models. Trends in return levels of GSL are assessed at a mountain massif scale from GSL data, provided for the French Al...

Abstract. Natural risk studies such as flood risk assessments require long series of weather variables. As an alternative to observed series, which have a limited length, these data can be provided by weather generators. Among the large variety of existing ones, resampling methods based on analogues have the advantage of guaranteeing the physical c...

The development of renewable electricity in Africa could be massive in coming decades, as a response to the rapid rising electricity demand while complying with the Paris Agreements. This study shows that in the high-resolution climate experiments of CORDEX-Africa, the annual mean solar potential is expected to decrease on average by 4% over most o...

Forecasting the height of new snow (HN) is crucial for avalanche hazard forecasting, road viability, ski resort management and tourism attractiveness. Météo-France operates the PEARP-S2M probabilistic forecasting system, including 35 members of the PEARP Numerical Weather Prediction system, where the SAFRAN downscaling tool refines the elevation re...

Quantifying model uncertainty and internal variability components in climate projections has been paid a great attention in the recent years. For multiple synthetic ensembles of climate projections, we compare the precision of uncertainty component estimates obtained respectively with the two Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches mostly used in r...

The Combe de Lancey stream is a relatively calm tributary of the Isère River flowing through the city of Villard-Bonnot near Grenoble (France). In 2005, a long-lasting extreme rainfall event triggered dramatic erosion processes in this 18 km² granitic catchment. A volume of 20,000 m 3 of sediment and logs deposited in the paper factory located near...

Forecasting the height of new snow (HN) is crucial for avalanche hazard forecasting, roads viability, ski resorts management and tourism attractiveness. Meteo-France operates the PEARP-S2M probabilistic forecasting system including 35 members of the PEARP Numerical Weather Prediction system, where the SAFRAN downscaling tool is refining the elevati...

The quantification of uncertainty sources in ensembles of climate projections obtained from combinations of different scenarios and climate and impact models is a key issue in climate impact studies. The small size of the ensembles of simulation chains and their incomplete sampling of scenario and climate model combinations makes the analysis diffi...

We present a multi-site stochastic model for the generation of average daily temperature, which includes a flexible parametric distribution and a multivariate autoregressive process. Different versions of this model are applied to a set of 26 stations located in Switzerland. The importance of specific statistical characteristics of the model (seaso...

La prise en compte des incertitudes est devenue un impératif affiché, mais reste souvent un voeu pieu dans la pratique. Le cas des projections climatiques et de leur déclinaison sectorielle constitue un exemple emblématique de cette dichotomie. La communauté scientifique génère un nombre croissant de trajectoires représentant des futurs possibles....

Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts so that robust evaluation of their return period is crucial. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. Whereas this policy is probably efficient for reducing the mean...

Accurate flood hazard assessments are crucial for adequate flood hazard mapping and hydraulic infrastructure design. The choice of an acceptable and cost-effective solution for such assessments depends upon the estimation of quantiles for different characteristics of floods, usually maximum discharges. However, gauge series usually have a limited t...

Very large wildfires have high human, economic and ecological impacts so that robust evaluation of their return period is crucial. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. Whereas this policy is probably efficient for reducing the mean b...

Handling the uncertainty of climate change projections (essay) The uncertainties associated with climate projections cannot be ignored when those projections are used. They arise from uncertainties surrounding developments for greenhouse gases, uncertainties arising from the climate models and the impact models (hydrology, biodiversity etc.), as we...

Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the stati...

Many rainfall generators rely on the assumption that statistical properties of rainfall observations can be related to physical processes via weather patterns. The MEWP (Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern) model belongs to this class. In this daily rainfall model, extremes above a threshold are distributed exponentially, for each season and atmosphe...