Guilherme Samprogna Mohor

Guilherme Samprogna Mohor
Universität Potsdam · Institute of Environmental Science and Geography

Master of Science

About

41
Publications
10,000
Reads
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334
Citations
Citations since 2016
32 Research Items
327 Citations
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2016201720182019202020212022020406080
Introduction
Guilherme Samprogna Mohor currently works at the Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Universität Potsdam. His current project is 'Exploring the transferability of flood loss models across scales, flood types and regions'
Additional affiliations
October 2017 - present
Universität Potsdam
Position
  • PhD Student
March 2014 - April 2016
University of São Paulo
Position
  • Master's Student
May 2013 - February 2014
National Institute for Space Research, Brazil
Position
  • Scholar
Education
October 2017 - September 2021
Universität Potsdam
Field of study
  • Natural Hazards
March 2014 - April 2016
University of São Paulo
Field of study
  • Hydraulic Engineering and Sanitation
February 2008 - July 2012
Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
Field of study
  • Environmental engineering

Publications

Publications (41)
Article
Full-text available
Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing³. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we sh...
Article
Full-text available
Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10-and 20-year moving averages. Signi...
Thesis
Full-text available
The estimation of financial losses is an integral part of flood risk assessment. The application of existing flood loss models on locations or events different from the ones used to train the models has led to low performance, showing that characteristics of the flood damaging process have not been sufficiently well represented yet. To improve floo...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies’ finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a...
Article
Literature has suggested that droughts and societies are mutually shaped and, therefore, both require a better understanding of their coevolution on risk reduction and water adaptation. Although the São Paulo Metropolitan Region drew attention because of the 2013–2015 drought, this was not the first event. This paper revisits this event and the 198...
Article
Full-text available
Several severe flood events hit Germany in recent years, with events in 2013 and 2016 being the most destructive ones, although dynamics and flood processes were very different. While the 2013 event was a slowly rising widespread fluvial flood accompanied by some severe dike breaches, the events in 2016 were fast-onset pluvial floods, which resulte...
Article
Full-text available
Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Vor 217 Jahren, am 21. Juli 1804, traf ein verheerendes Hochwasser das Ahrtal. Die Schilderungen der Verwüstungen – zahlreiche Todesopfer, zerstörte Häuser und Brücken – ähneln sehr den Bildern, die uns seit dem 14. Juli aus dem Ahrtal und benachbarten Regionen erreichen, obwohl seit Jahrzehnten Hochwasserschutz und weitergehende Hochwasservorsorg...
Article
Full-text available
Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Flood damage assessment is crucial to address the challenges of climate and socioeconomic changes. Researchers and practitioners have developed several damage models to tackle local and regional situations. Particularly for direct damages to the residential sector, these models rely on numerous hypothesis (e.g. zero damage threshold) and parameters...
Preprint
Full-text available
Several severe flood events hit Germany in recent years, with events in 2013 and 2016 being the most destructive ones although dynamics and flood processes were very different. While the 2013-event was a slowly rising widespread fluvial flood accompanied by some severe dike breaches, the events in 2016 were fast onset pluvial floods, which resulted...
Preprint
Full-text available
Model predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly use physical metrics like inundation depth or building characteristics but largely ignore indicators of preparedness. The role of such predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affecte...
Article
Full-text available
Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterized by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight international research groups, the objective of this study was t...
Article
Full-text available
The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, bus...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Mit der in diesem Bericht dargestellten Analyse wurde die Vertiefung des Wissens zu Schadenspotentialen ausgewählter Klimawirkungen und zu Anpassungsmaßnahmen, in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Behördennetzwerk „Klimawandel und Anpassung“, in Deutschland angestrebt. Zum einen wurden Schadenspotenziale prioritärer klimawandelgebundener Risiken für Gesellsch...
Article
Full-text available
Flood loss data collection and modeling are not standardized, and previous work has indicated that losses from different flood types (e.g., riverine and groundwater) may follow different driving forces. However, different flood types may occur within a single flood event, which is known as a compound flood event. Therefore, we aimed to identify sta...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Effective flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, available flood damage estimates are still characterised by significant levels of uncertainty, questioning the capacity of flood damage models to depict real damages. With a joint effort of eight international research groups, the objective of this s...
Chapter
Neste capítulo, são apresentados conceitos hidrológicos, estratégias e desafi os em torno da caracterização e do manejo sustentável de bacias hidrográfi cas. Buscou-se ressaltar a importância e as recentes abordagens no âmbito científi co, além de sugerir caminhos para futuros estudos. O capítulo está dividido em duas partes. Na primeira, são apres...
Article
Full-text available
Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex dynamics occurring at catchments, freshwater quality modeling is still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios u...
Article
Full-text available
Southeastern Brazil is characterised by seasonal rainfall variability. This can have a great social, economic and environmental impact due to both excessive and deficient water availability. During 2014 and 2015, the region experienced one of the most severe droughts since 1960. The resulting water crisis has seriously affected water supply to the...
Article
Full-text available
Climate variability and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning strategies for urban water security in the long and medium term. However, actions to manage the drought risk impacts entail great complexity, such as the calculation of economic losses derived from the combination of severity, duration and frequency under unc...
Article
Developing countries face large losses to extreme natural hazards. Regarding droughts, planning instruments are important for managing water resources and diminishing the losses. Under increasing demand scenario, varied criteria should be incorporated indicating society's capacity to bear the consequences. Here we present a Brazilian-contextualized...
Article
Full-text available
Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex dynamics occurring at catchments, freshwater quality modeling is still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios u...
Poster
Full-text available
•A season-based probability distributed model was developed. •It aims to assist water management in basins of distinct seasonality. •It performed well in Brazilian large basins of size up to ~70000 km². •It performed best for Furnas (~50000 km²) of good input data. •The calibration parameters vary between wet and dry seasons.
Poster
Full-text available
Em situações de desastres naturais, uma visão geral e uma rápida previsão são necessárias para se tomar medidas emergenciais. Em situações de baixas vazões, a base comum é a execução de um modelo hidrológico, o que pode ser complexo e conceitualmente abrangente. Este procedimento é, muitas vezes, inadequado para sistemas de alerta e tomada de decis...
Poster
Full-text available
Nos últimos anos, o Sudeste Brasileiro vivenciou baixas precipitações, resultando em baixas recargas dos aquíferos e baixos volumes armazenados nos principais reservatórios da região. Estes baixos volumes armazenados culminaram numa série de consequências para o abastecimento público, para a geração de energia elétrica, para a irrigação, entre outr...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A disponibilidade e, em particular, a qualidade dos recursos hídricos no Brasil é prejudicada em função da poluição e degradação, decorrentes dos desafios relacionados à água no Antropoceno (Magurran, 2016; Crutzen, 2002). Aplicações de modelos de bacias hidrográficas para estimar qualidade e quantidade de recursos hídricos são essenciais para comp...
Poster
Full-text available
Session HS5.3 Advances in socio-hydrology. The session aims to reconcile socio-hydrology with other fields such as hydro-sociology, hydro-economics and integrated water resources management. Concepts dealing with human-water relations such as waterscapes, hydro-social cycle, water governance or hydroinformatics already explore the linkages and feed...
Article
Extreme hydro-climatic events has become increasingly recurrent in recent decades in the Amazon Basin region. The IPCC report also agrees with a tendency to increase in frequency and intensity of extreme floods, causing financial and socioeconomic damage. This work assesses an statistical study of maxima discharges under climate changes scenarios i...
Article
Full-text available
Integrating seasonal patterns of water availability and land-use/land-cover change is crucial in watershed planning. Often, these are not considered under hydrological extremes affecting decision making. This article presents results from a multi-site, nested catchment experiment carried out during a dry period in the Cantareira Water Supply System...
Book
Sabe-se que o setor rodoviário é grande responsável pelas emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Neste contexto, inventários de emissões são desenvolvidos para entender as relações entre emissões e concentrações ambientais dos gases e auxiliar no estabelecimento de políticas e avaliar a eficácia de medidas para limitar as emissões de GEE. Este e...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Resumo – O uso de modelos hidrológicos para previsão da quantidade e qualidade da água é essencial à gestão de recursos hídricos, embasando relevante informação. Quantidade e qualidade não podem ser dissociadas ao se tratar da segurança hídrica. Entretanto, muitos trabalhos dissociam ou omitem um destes aspectos. Ademais, a carência de dados prejud...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Resumo – O uso de modelos hidrológicos para a previsão da quantidade e qualidade da água é essencial à gestão de recursos hídricos, formando a base de relevante informação. Entretanto, a carência de séries de dados prejudica diversas aplicações. Propõe-se a integração de dados primários pontuais de campo e dados secundários, de forma a facilitar a...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Resumo – As perdas econômicas associadas à variabilidade e alterações climáticas estão aumentando em todo o mundo. Por isso, transferência de riscos a terceiros, como os seguros, estão sendo implementados. Mas o pouco conhecimento das alterações climáticas naturais e antrópicas em termos de intensidade e frequência inserem grande subjetividade nos...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A reação de entidades e a administração pública pós eventos hidrológicos extremos (ação corretiva) além de menos efetiva, tem o potencial de a longo prazo enfraquecer a economia local. Com uma estratégia preventiva baseada em estudos e planejamento é possível gerenciar o risco de eventos hidrológicos extremos e conviver com a ameaça de forma menos...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract Study region The Tapajós Basin is an important Amazon tributary affected by human activities with great potential for water conflicts. The basin, as others within the Amazon region, is receiving a number of hydropower plants, among them the Teles Pires plant, projected to operate in 2015. Study focus Hydrological impacts due to climate ch...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Decision makers have continuously asked for better tools of risk aversion to help assessing drought resilience related to climate variability, extremes and water security. Drought is one of main hazards with expensive impacts to cope with deficient risk management in Latin American urban centres. One example is the 2013/2015 drought condition in Sã...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Adaptation policies due to climate changes require multidisciplinary studies including those involving human activities. Most of the impacts, such as those related to hydropower generation, the livelihood of riverine population and aquaculture, are directly related to the hydrological regime and in particularly to the variability of water levels. I...
Article
The selective collection and recycling of municipal solid waste are presented as stages of an integrated program of solid waste management to minimize the environmental impact of the treatment and final disposal of solid waste. Therefore, this program aims to save natural resources, such as energy and raw materials, in the manufacture of new produc...

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Projects

Projects (4)
Project
The flood in July 2021 has led to extreme impacts along the rivers Erft, Inde, Vichtbach and Wupper in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and on the river Ahr in Rhineland-Palatinate (RLP). KAHR accompanies the (re)construction process and makes a scientific contribution to flood risk management after the flood disaster in order to make affected regions more resilient.
Project
O objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir com o ambiente operacional do CEMADEN, ajudando a compor o leque de ferramentas que embasam o monitoramento e a emissão de alertas antecipados de desastres naturais, incorporando técnicas de calibração e validação em tempo real usando modelos hidrológicos distribuídos e concentrados aplicados em bacias prioritárias expostas a extremos hidrológicos.