Greta Bocedi

Greta Bocedi
University of Aberdeen | ABDN · Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences

PhD

About

73
Publications
16,302
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2,272
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Publications

Publications (73)
Article
Full-text available
Explaining the evolution and maintenance of polyandry remains a key challenge in evolutionary ecology. One appealing explanation is the sexually-selected sperm (SSS) hypothesis, which proposes that polyandry evolves due to indirect selection stemming from positive genetic covariance with male fertilization efficiency, and hence with a male's succes...
Article
Rapid environmental changes are threatening biodiversity and exposing species to novel ecological and evolutionary pressures. The scientific community increasingly recognises the need for dynamic models integrating sufficient complexity both to improve our understanding of species’ responses to environmental changes and to inform effective manageme...
Article
Full-text available
There is increasing empirical evidence that individuals utilize social and environmental cues in making decisions as to whether or not to disperse. However, we lack theory exploring the influence of information acquisition and use on the evolution of dispersal strategies and metapopulation dynamics. We used an individual-based, spatially explicit s...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding and predicting the dynamics of range expansion is a major topic in ecology both for invasive species extending their ranges into non-native regions and for species shifting their natural distributions as a consequence of climate change. In an increasingly modified landscape, a key question is ‘how do populations spread across patchy l...
Article
Full-text available
Aim: In the most widely used family of methods for ancestral range estimation (ARE), dispersal, speciation and extirpation events are estimated from information on ex-tant lineages. However, this approach fails to consider the geographic distribution of extinct species and their position on the phylogenetic tree, an omission that could compromise r...
Article
Understanding how genetic and ecological effects can interact to shape genetic loads within and across local populations is key to understanding ongoing persistence of systems that should otherwise be susceptible to extinction through mutational meltdown. Classic theory predicts short persistence times for metapopulations comprising small local pop...
Article
Full-text available
Among‐individual and within‐individual variation in expression of seasonal migration versus residence is widespread in nature and could substantially affect the dynamics of partially‐migratory metapopulations inhabiting seasonally‐ and spatially‐structured environments. However, such variation has rarely been explicitly incorporated into metapopula...
Article
Full-text available
Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for dec...
Article
Full-text available
Defining appropriate null expectations for species distribution hypotheses is important because sampling bias and spatial autocorrelation can produce realistic, but ecologically meaningless, geographic patterns. Generating null species occurrences with similar spatial structure to observed data can help overcome these problems, but existing methods...
Article
Full-text available
Female mating preferences for exaggerated male display traits are commonplace. Yet, comprehensive understanding of the evolution and persistence of costly female preference through indirect (Fisherian) selection in finite populations requires some explanation for the persistence of additive genetic variance (Va) underlying sexual traits, given that...
Article
Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discove...
Article
Full-text available
The ability of individuals to leave a current breeding area and select a future one is important, because such decisions can have multiple consequences for individual fitness, but also for metapopulation dynamics, structure, and long-term persistence through non-random dispersal patterns. In the wild, many colonial and territorial animal species di...
Preprint
Full-text available
There is increasing evidence that life-history traits can evolve rapidly during range expansion and that this evolution can impact the ecological dynamics of population spread. While dispersal evolution during range expansion has received substantial attention, dormancy (dispersal in time) has not. Here, we use an individual-based model to investig...
Article
Full-text available
Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for dec...
Article
Full-text available
Context Agricultural expansion is a leading cause of deforestation and habitat fragmentation globally. Policies that support biodiversity and facilitate species movement across farmland are therefore central to sustainability efforts and wildlife conservation in these human-modified landscapes. Objectives We investigated the conservation impact of...
Preprint
Full-text available
Female mating preferences for exaggerated male display traits are commonplace. Yet, comprehensive understanding of the evolution and persistence of costly female preference through indirect (Fisherian) selection in finite populations requires some explanation for the persistence of additive genetic variance (Va) underlying sexual traits, given that...
Article
Full-text available
Reliably modelling the demographic and distributional responses of a species to environmental changes can be crucial for successful conservation and management planning. Process-based models have the potential to achieve this goal, but so far they remain underused for predictions of species' distributions. Individual-based models offer the addition...
Article
Full-text available
Process-based models are becoming increasingly used tools for understanding how species are likely to respond to environmental changes and to potential management options. RangeShifter is one such modelling platform, which has been used to address a range of questions including identifying effective reintroduction strategies, understanding patterns...
Article
Full-text available
In Focus: Li, X-Y., & H. Kokko. (2021). Sexual dimorphism driven by intersexual resource competition: Why is it rare, and where to look for it? Journal of Animal Ecology, 00, 1-13. Ecological sexual dimorphism, that is differences between the sexes in traits that are naturally selected as opposed to sexually selected, is gaining increasing attentio...
Article
Full-text available
Aim Landmasses have been continuously modified by tectonic activity, the breakup and collision of landmasses is thought to have generated or suppressed ecological opportunities, altering the rates of speciation, dispersal and extinction. However, the extent to which the signatures of past geological events are retained in modern biodiversity patter...
Preprint
Defining appropriate null expectations for species distribution hypotheses is important because sampling bias and spatial autocorrelation can produce realistic, but ecologically meaningless, geographic patterns. Generating null species occurrences with similar spatial structure to observed data can help overcome these problems, but existing methods...
Article
Full-text available
Reliably modelling the demographic and distributional responses of a species to environmental changes can be crucial for successful conservation and management planning. Process-based models have the potential to achieve this goal, but so far they remain underused for predictions of species' distributions. Individual-based models offer the addition...
Article
Full-text available
Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions due to habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effe...
Article
The interacting impacts of habitat fragmentation and climate change present a substantial threat for biodiversity, constituting a 'deadly anthropogenic cocktail'. A range of conservation actions has been proposed to allow biodiversity to respond to those environmental changes. However, determining the relative effectiveness of these actions has bee...
Preprint
Full-text available
Process-based models are becoming increasingly used tools for understanding how species are likely to respond to environmental changes and to potential management options. RangeShifter is one such modelling platform, which has been used to address a range of questions including identifying effective reintroduction strategies, understanding patterns...
Preprint
Full-text available
1. Reliably modelling the demographic and distributional responses of a species to environmental changes can be crucial for successful conservation and management planning. Process-based models have the potential to achieve this goal, but so far they remain underused for predictions of species′ distributions. Individual-based models offer the addit...
Article
Full-text available
Substantial literature is devoted to understanding dispersal evolution, but we lack theory on how dispersal evolves when populations inhabit currents. Such theory is required for understanding connectivity in freshwater and marine environments; moreover, many animals, fungi and plants rely on wind‐based dispersal, but the effects of currents on dis...
Article
Empirical studies have documented both positive and negative density‐dependent dispersal, yet most theoretical models predict positive density dependence as a mechanism to avoid competition. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the occurrence of negative density‐dependent dispersal, but few of these have been formally modeled. Here, we...
Article
Full-text available
Dispersal of prey from predator-free patches frequently supplies a trophic subsidy to predators by providing more prey than are produced locally. Prey arriving from predator-free patches might also have evolved weaker defenses against predators and thus enhance trophic subsidies by providing easily captured prey. Using local models assuming a linea...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding the dynamics of socio‐ecological systems is crucial to the development of environmentally sustainable practices. Models of social or ecological sub‐systems have greatly enhanced such understanding, but at the risk of obscuring important feedbacks and emergent effects. Integrated modelling approaches have the potential to address this...
Data
Appendix S1. Methods. Table S1. Examples of heritability (h 2) estimates in the reviewed studies. Table S2. Models of dispersal evolution and assumptions made on the genetic architecture of the evolving traits.
Data
Figure S1 Individual replicate results given c P = 0, c M = 0, & c F = 0. Figure S2 Individual replicate results given c P = 0, c M = 0:02, & c F = 0. Figure S3 Individual replicate results given c P = 0:02, c M = 0, & c F = 0. Figure S4 Individual replicate results given c P = 0, c M = 0, & c F = 0:02 Figure S5 Individual replicate results giv...
Presentation
The ability of individuals to select a future breeding area is particularly influential during their lifetime, because such decisions can have multiple consequences on individual life history traits and fitness, but also population dynamics, structure and long-term persistence through non-random dispersal patterns. In the wild, many colonial or ter...
Data
Table S1. Model variables and parameters. S1. Purging of deleterious mutations and evolution of inbreeding depression S2. Effect of costs of polyandry and sperm on polyandry evolution S3. Polyandry evolution in the absence of a trade‐off between sperm number and sperm mortality rate S4. Determinants of female fertility in simulations with and witho...
Article
Full-text available
Inbreeding depression is widely hypothesised to drive adaptive evolution of pre-copulatory and post-copulatory mechanisms of inbreeding avoidance, which in turn are hypothesised to affect evolution of polyandry (i.e., female multiple mating). However, surprisingly little theory or modelling critically examines selection for pre-copulatory or post-c...
Preprint
Full-text available
Inbreeding depression is widely hypothesised to drive adaptive evolution of pre-copulatory and post-copulatory mechanisms of inbreeding avoidance, which in turn are hypothesised to affect evolution of polyandry (i.e., female multiple mating). However, surprisingly little theory or modelling critically examines selection for pre-copulatory or post-c...
Article
Full-text available
Ongoing ambitions are to understand the evolution of costly polyandry and its consequences for species ecology and evolution. Emerging patterns could stem from feed-back dynamics between the evolving mating system and its genetic environment, defined by interactions among kin including inbreeding. However, such feed-backs are rarely considered in n...
Article
Full-text available
Dispersal is a process of central importance for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities, because of its diverse consequences for gene flow and demography. It is subject to evolutionary change, which begs the question, what is the genetic basis of this potentially complex trait? To address this question, we (i) revie...
Article
Dispersal and migration are superficially similar large-scale movements, but which appear to differ in terms of inter-individual behavioural synchronization. Seasonal migration is a striking example of coordinated behaviour, enabling animal populations to track spatio-temporal variation in ecological conditions. By contrast, for dispersal, while so...
Article
Full-text available
We still lack a comprehensive understanding of the relative importance of demographic, dispersal and landscape characteristics on species’ rates of range expansion (RRE) and on how these factors interact. Here, we provide an analysis of these effects for passive dispersers, by investigating how habitat characteristics, such as habitat quality, avai...
Article
New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecti...
Data
Supporting Information S2. Distributions of allele and trait values, inbreeding coefficients, neutral alleles, inbreeding adjustment, and trait correlations for conditional polyandry
Data
Full-text available
Supporting Information S1. Distributions of allele and trait values, inbreeding coefficients, neutral alleles, inbreeding adjustment, and trait correlations for unconditional polyandry.
Data
Appendix S1. Estimating fecundity and current population density. Appendix S2. Survival modelling. Appendix S3. Density dependence in dispersal and settlement. Appendix S4. Sensitivity analysis. Table S1. Baseline predictions. Fig. S1. Map of the cost surface.
Article
Full-text available
Polyandry is often hypothesised to evolve to allow females to adjust the degree to which they inbreed. Multiple factors might affect such evolution, including inbreeding depression, direct costs, constraints on male availability, and the nature of polyandry as a threshold trait. Complex models are required to evaluate when evolution of polyandry to...
Data
Appendix S1. Allelic metrics for within‐pair offspring. Appendix S2. Allelic metrics for extra‐pair offspring. Appendix S3. Supplementary figures.
Article
Full-text available
Female extra-pair reproduction in socially monogamous systems is predicted to cause cuckolded socially-paired males to conditionally reduce paternal care, causing selection against extra-pair reproduction and underlying polyandry. However, existing models and empirical studies have not explicitly considered that cuckolded males might be related to...
Article
Full-text available
Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait-based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000...
Article
Complex coevolutionary feedbacks between female mating interval and male sperm traits have been hypothesized to explain the evolution and persistence of costly polyandry. Such feedbacks could potentially arise because polyandry creates sperm competition and consequent selection on male allocation to sperm traits, while the emerging sperm traits cou...
Article
As biodiversity hotspots are often characterized by high human population densities, implementation of conservation management practices that focus only on the protection and enlargement of pristine habitats is potentially unrealistic. An alternative approach to curb species extinction risk involves improving connectivity among existing habitat pat...
Article
Full-text available
Previous results showing that lack of information on local population density leads to higher emigration probabilities in unpredictable environments but to lower emigration probabilities in constant or highly predictable scenarios have recently been chal-lenged by Poethke et al. By reimplementing both our model and that of Poethke and colleagues, w...
Article
Full-text available
Inbreeding avoidance among interacting females and males is not always observed despite inbreeding depression in offspring fitness, creating an apparent 'inbreeding paradox'. This paradox could be resolved if selection against inbreeding was in fact weak, despite inbreeding depression. However, the net magnitude and direction of selection on the de...
Article
AimThe impact of invasive species is one of the main causes of biodiversity loss world-wide, and as a result, there is much interest in understanding the pattern and rate of expansion of species outside their native range. We aimed to characterize the range expansion of the American mink (Neovison vison) invading from multiple introduction points t...
Article
An individual-based model of animal dispersal and population dynamics was used to test the effects of different climate change adaptation strategies on species range shifting ability, namely the improvement of existing habitat, restoration of low quality habitat and creation of new habitat. These strategies were implemented on a landscape typical o...
Data
Summary of variables and parameter values used in analogous models of coevolution of preference (P) and display (D, mate-choice model, MCM) and polyandry (Py) and fertilization efficiency (F, SSS model, SSSM). Figure S1. Direct selection functions. Figure S2. Precedence in fertilization functions. Figure S3. Initial allelic and phenotypic distribut...
Article
Full-text available
Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods Rapid environmental changes are threatening biodiversity and exposing species to novel ecological and evolutionary pressures. The scientific community increasingly recognises the need for dynamic models integrating sufficient complexity both to improve our understanding of species’ responses to environmental changes an...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods A growing body of theory explores the causes and consequences of dispersal evolution at expanding ranges. Selection pressures acting on dispersal are likely to be very different at an expanding range margin than in the core or the margins of a stationary range. Typically, model results lead to the prediction that disper...
Article
Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) follow a process-based approach to simulate plant population demography, and have been used to address questions about disturbances, plant succession, community composition, and provisioning of ecosystem services under climate change scenarios. Despite their potential, they have seldom been used for studying species...
Article
Full-text available
The evolutionary potential of populations is mainly determined by population size and available genetic variance. However, the adaptability of spatially structured populations may also be affected by dispersal: positively by spreading beneficial mutations across sub-populations, but negatively by moving locally adapted alleles between demes. We dev...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding the eco-evolutionary dynamics of species under rapid climate change is vital for both accurate forecasting of biodiversity responses and for developing effective management strategies. Using an individual-based model we demonstrate that the presence and form (colour) of inter-annual variability in environmental conditions can impact t...