Graeme Snooks

Australian National University | ANU · Research School of Economics (RSE)

Life has embarked on an improbable voyage through space and time: a voyage that has an observable beginning and a predictable end. It is improbable for a number of reasons, but particularly because the Universe through which we are travelling is extremely hostile to complexity of any kind, whether organic or inorganic. This paper explores how and w...

ARK OF THE SUN provides an entirely new and holistic explanation of the origin and transformation of both life and human society - and predicts their likely paths into the future - by employing a revolutionary, demand-driven, general dynamic theory. This book provides the capstone to Graeme Snooks' extensive research, spanning five decades, on biol...

This book embodies a search for the ultimate reality in life. It is about our true selves; about the real nature of good and evil, oppression and liberty, truth and lies; about the relentless reality of the life-system--the strategic logos--that enables us to survive and prosper; about the self-serving falseness of our ethical systems; and about th...

See book's cover details.

A paperback edition of LAWS OF HISTORY was published by Routledge in February 2015.

The Levant, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean, was at the crossroads of the world's greatest civilizations during the Bronze Age (c. 3800--1200 BC). Owing to its location at the intersection of lucrative trade routes over land and sea from all points of the compass, the territory of the Canaanites attracted the avaricious attention of the sup...

The Kura-Araxes culture flourished for a thousand years over a large area of Transcaucasia, northern Iran, upper Mesopotamia, eastern Anatolia, and the Levant as far south as the Sea of Galilee. Despite the brilliant work done by archaeologists from a surprisingly large number of countries—including Armenia, France, Italy, Russia, Israel, USA, Cana...

The question about whether the meaning of life is a matter of science or metaphysics can be resolved by examining the life-system underlying human society. This paper shows how the life-system I call the strategic logos, has emerged within the cosmos, how it deflects natural crises, how it defies entropy, and how it reveals the existential meaning...

Freedom is an issue central not only to philosophical enquiry, but also to wider human aspiration. Philosophers have always debated the related concepts of "free will" and "individual freedom", while people throughout the world have fought and died for political control of their own lives. Both matters are dealt with in this paper. Employing my gen...

Truth has been a central subject in religious, philosophical, political, and popular discussion ever since civilized societies first emerged. Many individuals, organisations, and societies have claimed to have discovered the truth about existence, and many more have professed their truthfulness. And certain key institutions, such as religious organ...

The problem of evil has attracted the attention of philosophers for at least the past three millennia. The Pre-Socratic Greek thinkers viewed good and evil in terms of the impact that individuals had upon the prosperity of the city-state. This strategic evaluation was rejected by Plato in favour of a metaphysical approach--an approach that prevaile...

"What is man?" is the anguished cry that echoes through the ages from at least the Sumerian Epic of Gilgamesh (c. 1600--1155 BC) and the ancient Greek poetry of Homer (760 BC) to the creative writing of Shakespeare (c. 1600 AD), Goethe (1770), Nietzsche (1885), and beyond. And the response over that long period of time has varied according to the s...

The most intriguing feature of human society--and indeed of the rest of life--is the emergence of order and complexity in a universe dominated by increasing entropy. And the most fascinating aspect of order and complexity is that it has arisen throughout history without any conscious human management. Indeed, whenever ideologically motivated indivi...

Human society has reached a critical crossroad in history. The global dynamic process that has driven the prosperity and freedoms embodied in Western Civilization is grinding to a halt. The narrowing opportunities for humanity as population presses on technologically defined resources is generating protests, ugly competition, disputes, wars, and a...

The success of national leaders depends fundamentally on the nature of the dynamic strategies they pursue. In turn, the types of dynamic strategies that possess the potential for success are determined by their historical era. These issues are critical to any evaluation of Putin's unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine, in February 2022. Any attempt to...

In his final works, written during the 1880s, Nietzsche was concerned with developing a new set of social and political values to replace those of Christianity, now that God was dead. He wanted to revalue all values, and in the process to make way for a new type of mankind--the Ubermensch or overman-who would transform the world. This was envisaged...

Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of life and sought ways to defend ourselves against the inevitable--from physical decline and death. The surrounding ruins of earlier civilizations remind us of our fate. We look hopefully to forces greater than ourselves--to gods or science--for guidance and protect...

Effective myth-busting must employ a scientific methodology. Accordingly, a forensic global-historical approach is adopted in this paper to debunk the conventional wisdom not only about the mission of Jesus of Nazareth-who I accept as an historical figure-but also about his sudden disappearance, real cause of death, influence on the subsequent deve...

Mankind has always feared the future. We have always recognised the precariousness of of life and sought to defend ourselves against the inevitable--physical decline and death. We look hopefully to forces greater than ourselves--to gods or science--for guidance and protection. Yet our precautionary efforts betray signs of desperation, as we know th...

It is hard to believe that the free world has taken so readily to switching-off their economies at the slightest pretext--to locking up their citizens and paralysing their societies. Governments around the world rationalise this as merely following the advice of medical "experts" during a pandemic. But the real reason is a failure of strategic lead...

This book is an outcome of my research project THE FUTURE OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION. It builds on my earlier books DYNAMIC SOCIETY (1996), EPHEMERAL CIVILIZATION (1997), THE LAWS OF HISTORY (1998), THE GLOBAL CRISIS MAKERS (2000), THE COMING ECLIPSE (2010), DEAD GOD RISING (2010), and ARK OF THE SUN (2015). This project morphed into a new eBook entit...

A global--historical approach is adopted in this paper to challenge the conventional wisdom not only about the mission of Jesus of Nazareth--who I accept as an historical figure--but also about his sudden disappearance, real cause of death, influence on the subsequent development of Christianity, and the alleged role of Christianity in reshaping wo...

Societal dynamics is a field of study that orthodox economics has not managed to master. This is because of its dependence on a narrowly focused mathematical-deductive methodology. The resulting growth theory, both "exogenous" and "endogenous", provides limited insights about real-world dynamic processes, and has no useful real-world applications....

Formal inflation targeting, which was introduced internationally in the early 1990s, has been evaluated by orthodox economists as "a success". But successful at what? Its rationale, which is supported neither by a general dynamic theory nor by historical/empirical studies of the relationship between growth and prices, is the presumption that the co...

The outcome of the US Presidential election of November 2020 has just been announced. Joe Biden has defeated Donald Trump, but not by the landslide predicted by the "experts" and the polls (as usual!). Nevertheless, the trajectory of the American economy and society is about to be changed. A new choice of futures is about to be made. Will it be the...

The rise of modern science, from the mid-16th century to the present, is widely considered to have been kick-started by the 'scientific revolution' between 1550 and 1700. The sudden emergence of the 'scientific revolution', which has long excited the interest of historians and natural scientists, is regarded as the spring board of the modern age. W...

Scholarly 'puzzles' about reality are an outcome, not of inherent existential contradictions, but of faulty theories employed by intellectuals. Or by no theory at all. Orthodox histories of the rise and fall of civilisations contain many such 'puzzles', which are incorrectly claimed to be unresolved. The neglect of existing solutions to these puzzl...

Today the world is on the cusp of momentous change.The great wave of prosperity, which has carried Western societies from the early days of the Industrial Revolution until now, is finally exhausting itself. This is leaving the great nations of the world floundering in the shallows. But there is hope for those nations able to generate the next great...

In REPUBLIC (Bk 7), Plato employs his famous allegory of the cave of shadows to illustrate the difference between the universal reality of the Forms as represented by the Sun, and the ephemeral illusion of the everyday world represented by the flickering shadows on the cave wall. The cave allegory concerns the struggle of humans to understand the f...

America has reached a critical moment in history. The strategic decisions it takes now will determine its future--and the future of the world--for the next century. But will it retreat into mediocrity or breakthrough into unparalleled greatness? This paper provides a unique perspective on the matter, because it employs a realist general dynamic the...

On the announcement of Donald Trump's Presidential victory in November 2016, I published a paper entitled "The triumph of Trump and the failure of the intellectuals". I argued that the rise of Trump to power, and the failure of the intellectuals in the media and academia to predict this momentous event, had similar origins. The failure of orthodox...

The Great Lockdown of March to May 2020 was the outcome of a global war waged against the economy rather than against COVID-19. It is important to be very clear about this: the growing economic depression is the direct result, not of the coronavirus itself, but of the wrongheaded, badly advised, and massive intervention of governments around the wo...

This paper demonstrates and analyses the nature of the Great Lockdown fiasco, which is plunging the world into economic depression. How did this dire situation occur? I show that it is not directly caused by COVID-19 but by deliberate government policy even though there is a more effective and less dangerous approach available--as proposed in my re...

This paper is a call to arms. But it is a call to arms to wage war not on the economy that sustains us all, but on the new virus that threatens the lives of many. While COVID-19 can and will kill many individuals, it cannot seriously endanger the dynamic-life system that underlies our civilization. That can only occur through massive and misdirecte...

The idea that the future of humanity will approximate a mathematical solution—a unique event called the ‘singularity’—has attracted considerable attention in Big History over the past decade. As the discoverer (Snooks 1996) of the algorithm that gave rise to an early expression of the Big History singularity—the so-called 'Snooks-Panov vertical' (N...

Abstract: At the outset it needs to be said that, for the purposes of this analysis, I accept the core science of climate change. I’m not a climate sceptic. What I take issue with is the pseudo-science of climate mitigation. As climate scientists insist that climate change is largely human induced, and as they have no expertise in the analysis of h...

This is a revised and extended edition of the IGDS Working Paper # 15 Abstract. The idea that the future of humanity will approximate a mathematical solution—a unique event called the ‘singularity’—has attracted considerable attention over the past decade. As the discoverer (Snooks 1996) of the algorithm that gave rise to an early expression of th...

This paper shows that the 'technological singularity' is the outcome of the dark art of mythmaking. It is based neither on a careful examination of the facts of life and human existence, nor on the analysis of a realist dynamic theory of the mind and society of humanity. Instead, it is the result of an entirely inappropriate and arbitrary mathemati...

Both the rise of Donald Trump to power in the USA, and the failure of intellectuals in the media and academia to predict this momentous event, have similar origins. The failure of orthodox social scientists to develop a general dynamic theory of human society has not only contributed to economic conditions that Trump has exploited, but also to thei...

The first edition was published in 1998.

This book provides brief expositions of the central concepts in the field of global studies. It has a forward by former President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev. This exposition concisely outlines the general dynamic theory of human society developed by Graeme Donald Snooks.

Graeme Snooks talks to Yolande Kyngdon about his dynamic-strategy theory and its application to international relations and other global issues. These issues include: the future of great power clashes; the importance of technological revolution to modern society; the best response to climate change; and what past financial crises tell us about the...

Life has embarked on an improbable voyage through space and time: A voyage that has an observable beginning and a predictable end. It is improbable for a number of reasons, but particularly because the Universe through which we are travelling is extremely hostile to complexity of any kind, whether organic or inorganic. This paper explores how and w...

This paper was written for those aspiring to leadership roles in society, and those with a general interest in the role of leadership. It emphasizes the need for a realistic rather than an ideological approach, and for a longer run perspective than is commonly adopted. The costs of not doing so are outlined. This paper has also been published in bo...

This is the 2013 paperback version of the book first published in 1997, which introduced the concept of "existential schizophrenia".

This book is about the origin and role of religion and ideology in human society over the past 2 million years. The book's argument is that religion arose from humanity's attempt to understand and sustain the hidden life-system that is responsible for human survival and prosperity in an eternally hostile physical and social environment. The hidden...

The ultimate objective of theorists studying living systems is to construct a general theory of life that can explain and predict the dynamics of both human and nonhuman systems. Yet little progress has been made in this endeavour. Why? Because of the inappropriate methods adopted by complexity theorists. By assuming that the supply-side physics mo...

[This long essay was revised and published in book form as THE COMING ECLIPSE -- see above] Mankind currently is not only facing a major environmental challenge, it is embarking on a hugely risky enterprise — that of climate mitigation. This unprecedented global adventure is an attempt to change the nature and shape of human society on the grounds...

The “crisis exaggerators” are telling us that current economic conditions amount to an “unprecedented” global economic recession. This is historically incorrect. What is unprecedented is the degree to which economic commentators and political leaders are talking up economic downturn. What is their agenda? Could it be an attempt to prepare the way f...

Once again the economic experts are telling us that the current (October 2008) financial “crisis” will lead to a deep recession or depression. The financial press is even claiming that we are headed for “global meltdown”. Heard it all before? The last time was in 1998 when we were told that the financial difficulties in the East would generate the...

This essay attempts to quantify and explain the economic performance of Australia from the first European settlement to the present, and beyond. A general dynamic theory—the ‘dynamic-strategy’ theory—has been employed to provide a new interpretation of ‘dynamics Downunder’. It is shown, among other things, that the bold attempt from the 1910s to th...

The limited material evidence relating to Neanderthal culture has enabled scholars to give free rein to their imaginations in reconstructing the mind and society of this extinct branch of Homo. Despite their remarkable success, the Neanderthals are often characterised as being incapable of symbolic thought, language, and action. Sociobiologists hav...

The inflationary genie is out of its bottle. Or so we are told by orthodox economists and their dependent politicians in Australia. The new Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, claims that "inflation is the ultimate enemy of working families", and his Treasurer, Wayne Swan, is certain that "inflation is a 'cancer' eating away at living standards'...

This is the discussion paper that gave rise to the article of the same name published in COMPLEXITY (the journal of the Santa Fe Institute) in 2008. See the "contributions" list above for the published article.

The currently fashionable theory of self-organisation has its origins in statistical physics. Many believe that the underlying physics model, which is based on inanimate systems, can be employed to explain and predict the emergence of social structures, even of history itself. Some are even convinced that it will be possible to construct a social p...

Noel George Butlin, one of Australia’s leading historical economists, was born in Singleton, New South Wales on 19 December 1921. He was the sixth child and third son of Thomas Lyon Butlin, a railway porter, and Sara Mary Butlin (née Chantler). Butlin attended Maitland Boys High and studied economics at Sydney University. During his undergraduate y...

This essay attempts to quantify and explain the economic performance of the Great South Land – later called Australia – from the first migrations some 60,000 years ago to the present, and beyond. A general dynamic theory – the ‘dynamic-strategy’ theory – has been employed to provide a new interpretation of ‘dynamics Downunder’. It is shown, among o...

This book applies the "dynamic-strategy" theory to the origin, emergence, operation, breakdown, and future of the human mind. It provides a decision-making model for the dynamics of human society, and it challenges the neo-liberal and neo-Darwinist approaches. It also shows how my earlier concept of "existential schizophrenia" is part of what I cal...

It is well known by those concerned with the origin of life on Earth that Darwinian evolutionary theory has significant limitations. The most important of these, it is argued here, is a mismatch between the central dogma of natural selection and the competitive conditions associated not only with the emergence of life but also with its recovery fro...

What is the point of big history? There are two possibilities. It can be employed – in the way much scholarly work is – as a form of intellectual entertainment; or, alternatively, as a basis for constructing big theory. Why big theory? Because it is essential, if we wish to examine the nature and society of mankind, to explore critical problems in...

This is a reprint of of the 1993 Shann Memorial Lecture delivered by the author at the University of Western Australia on 27th July 1993. It had earlier been published as Discussion Paper 93.16 (July 1993), Department of Economics, UWA.

This book applies the "dynamic-strategy" theory to the origin, emergence, and future of life. Interesting new insights that challenge the prevailing neo-Darwinist approach. See also the author's 2005 article above published in ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH on the origin of life.

The authors apply modern theoretical and statistical methods to the unique data source of Domesday Book (1086) to analyse the system of manorial production and the nature of the national tax system known as danegeld in eleventh‐century England. Domesday Book includes detailed information on land ‘ownership’, income, resources, and fiscal responsibi...

Global history is the outcome of a complex but knowable dynamic process that has been operating in the human sphere for the past two million years and that will continue to operate for as long as human society exists. Underpinning this dynamic process are the laws of history. This article argues that it is possible both to model the dy- namics of h...

The central concept in this book is strategic demand. It is a force that arises from the unfolding of the dominant dynamic strategy driven by materialist man — a force that fluctuates with the changing fortunes of existing strategic opportunities. This is, I argue, an entirely new concept in economics, which promises to redress the balance in a dis...

Strategic theory makes a new beginning in the social sciences generally and economics in particular. It is the first modern theory of longrun dynamics arrived at through induction. There have been earlier attempts to derive economic generalizations using the ‘historical method’ but none has succeeded. This was not, it will be argued, due to the hop...

Owing to the unsatisfactory nature of neoclassical growth theory, a growing number of economists have sought new dynamic insights from beyond the boundaries of their own profession. These insights they claim to have found in the deductive models of evolutionary biology. It is asserted that evolutionary theory provides a better understanding of the...

The history of economic thought since the time of Adam Smith (1723–90) shows a continuing if sporadic concern with the theory of economic growth. This interest should come as no surprise, because it is obvious that we live in a dynamic world. What is surprising, however, is that very little real progress has been made in the field of economic dynam...

As the institutional structure of society provides the vehicle for a growing economy, any satisfactory dynamic theory must be able to explain political as well as economic change. While this is important in the case of developed societies, it is absolutely essential for lesser developed societies.1 The fact that orthodox economics has not been able...

This is a chapter in a book--Longrun Dynamics: A General Economic & Political Theory (Macmillan1998; 2000)--that seeks to explore the complex issue of social dynamics. And it does so in an entirely new way. The method, focus, conclusions, and policy implications of this study stand in marked contrast to those of orthodox growth or evolutionary mode...

A major limitation of neoclassical economic theory, which dates back to the late nineteenth century, is an inability to model both economic and political change. Chapter 3 made it clear that the neoclassical growth model has nothing to say about the political process. Even the new political economy, which emerged in the 1970s and 1980s, involves on...

During the twentieth century, business cycles, or shortrun economic fluctuations, have attracted the attention of a large number of leading economists. A sample of these includes economists of the stature of J.S. Duesenberry, Irving Fisher, Milton Friedman, Gottfried Haberler, Alvin Hansen, Roy Harrod, R.G. Hawtrey, Friedrich Hayek, John Hicks, N....

Spontaneous order is an unsatisfactory concept. It needs to be reinterpreted both in terms of its meaning and its causation. It will be argued that the purpose of a self-ordering society is not to achieve some political or moral end such as liberty or virtue, but to enable its members to maximize the probability of survival and prosperity. Ironical...

It is time to revisit the dynamic-strategy model. Since providing a brief overview at the very beginning we have reviewed the various orthodox approaches to economic dynamics, outlined the likely benefits to be gained from the inductive approach, and examined in some detail the main components of the model. Attention has focused on the strategic pr...

Orthodox economic dynamics employs a supply-side approach. This has had a characteristic impact on both the dynamic form of existing growth models and the explanation of the growth process. The contribution that might be made to this subject by a new demand-side approach has not even been contemplated. It is argued here that the dynamic form of a r...

In this final chapter the general principles of strategic policy are explored. These principles have been derived from the dynamic-strategy model of economic and political change developed in this book. The policy implications of my model not only differ dramatically from those arising from neoclassical theory, which are applied throughout the deve...

A central issue in economics is what type of economic system will maximize economic growth. This has preoccupied economists from the time of Adam Smith to today. Should we rely on the outcomes of individual decision-making, or should we intervene in some way? But this simple question overlooks the complexity of reality. How is it possible for indiv...

While the dynamic-strategy model will be discussed in detail in the chapters that follow, a brief overview at the outset will provide the necessary perspective. The model, which is self-starting and self-sustaining, is built around a dynamic mechanism that generates both strategic confidence and strategic demand for new units of capital, labour, ma...