Glen Guyver-Fletcher

Glen Guyver-Fletcher
The University of Warwick · School of Life Sciences

Bachelor of Science

About

11
Publications
2,857
Reads
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232
Citations
Citations since 2016
11 Research Items
232 Citations
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Publications

Publications (11)
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provide a key statistical tool for understanding the many quant...
Article
Full-text available
Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is a virulent and economically important disease of livestock, still endemic in many areas of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission from persistently infected livestock, also known as carriers, has been proposed as a mechanism to support the persistence of FMD in endemic regions. However whether carrier livestock ca...
Article
Full-text available
COVID-19 in the UK has been characterised by periods of exponential growth and decline, as different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are brought into play. During the early uncontrolled phase of the outbreak (March 2020) there was a period of prolonged exponential growth with epidemiological observations such as hospitalisation doubling eve...
Article
Full-text available
By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening sc...
Article
Full-text available
Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a “stay at home” order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite p...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Short-term forecasts of infectious disease can aid situational awareness and planning for outbreak response. Here, we report on multi-model forecasts of Covid-19 in the UK that were generated at regular intervals starting at the end of March 2020, in order to monitor expected healthcare utilisation and population impacts in real time. M...
Preprint
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic in the UK has been characterised by periods of exponential growth and decline, as different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are brought into play. During the early uncontrolled phase of the outbreak (early March 2020) there was a period of prolonged exponential growth with epidemiological observations such as hospitali...
Preprint
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provides a key statistical tool for understanding the many quan...
Preprint
Full-text available
By mid-May, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1st June. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an...

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Projects

Project (1)
Project
To develop an epidemiological model of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the Republic of Turkey, and use it to compare the probability of achieving FMD eradication with different vaccines and vaccination policies.