Giulia Vico

Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences | SLU · Department of Crop Production Ecology

Perennial grain crops are promoted as an alternative to annual staple crops to reduce negative environmental effects of agriculture and support a variety of ecosystem services. While perennial grains have undergone extensive testing, their vulnerability to projected future warmer and drier growing conditions remains unclear. To fill this gap, we co...

Diversifying agriculture by rotating a greater number of crop species in sequence is a promising practice to reduce negative impacts of crop production on the environment and maintain yields. However, it is unclear to what extent cereal yields change with crop rotation diversity and external nitrogen fertilization level over time, and which functio...

In arable systems, large amounts of nutrients, particularly of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), are not efficiently converted into harvestable products and are lost from agricultural systems, with negative consequences for agricultural productivity and the environment. These nutrient losses are mediated by hydroclimatic processes causing nutrient l...

Miscalculating the volumes of water withdrawn for irrigation, the largest consumer of freshwater in the world, jeopardizes sustainable water management. Hydrological models quantify water withdrawals, but their estimates are unduly precise. Model imperfections need to be appreciated to avoid policy misjudgements.

Understanding dryland dynamics is essential to predict future climate trajectories. However, there remains large uncertainty on the extent to which drylands are expanding or greening, the drivers of dryland vegetation shifts, the relative importance of different hydrological processes regulating ecosystem functioning, and the role of land-use chang...

To understand how climate change affects crop yields, we need to identify the climatic indices that best predict yields. Grain yields are most often predicted using precipitation and temperature in statistical models, assuming linear dependences. However, soil water availability is more influential for plant growth than precipitation and temperatur...

Perennial grains, such as the intermediate wheatgrass (Thinopyrum intermedium) (IWG), may reduce negative environmental effects compared to annual grain crops. Their permanent, and generally larger, root systems are likely to retain nitrogen (N) better, decreasing harmful losses of N and improving fertilizer N use efficiency, but there have been no...

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to increase leaf CO2 assimilation rates, thus promoting plant growth and increasing leaf area. It also decreases stomatal conductance, allowing water savings, which have been hypothesized to drive large-scale greening, in particular in arid and semiarid climates. However, the increase in leaf area...

Stomatal optimization has been a common phenomenological approach to represent plant stomatal regulation for decades. Recent studies that maximize the instantaneous net carbon gain reproduce empirical stomatal conductance variations in relation to fast environmental stimuli such as photosynthetically active radiation and vapor pressure deficit. How...

Plain Language Summary Droughts are increasingly severe and widespread globally, but their impacts on the global carbon cycle remain unclear due to the complexity of vegetation response to climate under and after droughts. In particular, how much plant activity decreases during drought and how quickly it recovers in the following months or years is...

Models that predict forest development are essential for sustainable forest management. Constructing growth models via regression analysis or fitting a family of sigmoid equations to construct compatible growth and yield models are two ways these models can be developed. In this study, four species-specific models were developed and compared. A com...

Jet streams are a key component of the climate system, whose dynamics couple closely to regional climate variability. Yet, the link between jet stream variability and vegetation activity has received little attention. Here, we leverage our understanding of the mid-latitude jet stream dynamics over the Euro-Atlantic sector to probe climate-vegetatio...

Irrigation agriculture is the most important user of the global freshwater resources worldwide, which makes it one of the key actors conditioning sustainable development and water security. The anticipated future climate change, population growth, and rapidly rising global demand for food will likely lead to agricultural expansion by allowing the d...

When modelling forest growth, capturing the effects of climate change is needed for reliable long-term predictions and management choices. This remains a challenge because commonly used mensurational forest growth and yield models, relying on inventory data, cannot account for climate change effects. We developed hybrid physiological/mensurational...

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to increase leaf CO2 assimilation rates, thus promoting plant growth and increasing leaf area. It also decreases stomatal conductance, allowing water savings that have been hypothesized to drive large-scale greening, in particular in arid and semiarid climates. However, the increase in leaf area co...

Intercropping of two or more species on the same piece of land can enhance biodiversity and resource use efficiency in agriculture. Traditionally, intercropping systems have been developed and improved by empirical methods within a specific local context. To support the development of promising intercropping systems, the individual species that are...

Seed predation can reduce the abundance and spread of unwanted vegetation in agricultural and other semi‐natural ecosystems. However, knowledge of how variations in seed predation rates affect plant species population dynamics is needed for decision making and knowledge‐based ecosystem management. We developed a stage‐classified stochastic matrix p...

In Northern Europe, poplars ( Populus ) can provide biomass for energy and material use, but most available clones were developed for lower latitudes and are unlikely to be well adapted to higher latitudes, even under warmer climates. We thus need to understand how clones respond to climatic conditions and photoperiod, and how these responses can b...

Heat and water stress can drastically reduce crop yields, particularly when they co-occur, but their combined effects and the mitigating potential of irrigation have not been simultaneously assessed at the regional scale. We quantified the combined effects of temperature and precipitation on county-level maize and soybean yields from irrigated and...

The climate‐vegetation coupling exerts a strong control on terrestrial carbon budgets and will affect the future evolution of global climate under continued anthropogenic forcing. Nonetheless, the effects of climatic conditions on such coupling at specific times in the growing season remain poorly understood. We quantify the climate‐vegetation coup...

More efficient resource use, especially nitrogen (N) in agricultural fields could considerably reduce the losses and spillover effects on the environment. Cereal-legume mixtures can lead to more efficient uptake of growth-limiting resources, and increase and stabilize yields, due to the variation in functional traits that facilitate partitioning of...

Stomatal optimization models can improve estimates of water and carbon fluxes with relatively low complexity, yet there is no consensus on which formulations are most appropriate for ecosystem‐scale applications. We implemented three existing analytical equations for stomatal conductance, based on different water penalty functions, in a big‐leaf co...

Crop yield is reduced by heat and water stress and even more when these conditions co-occur. Yet, compound effects of air temperature and water availability on crop heat stress are poorly quantified. Existing crop models, by relying at least partially on empirical functions, cannot account for the feedbacks of plant traits and response to heat and...

The cycling of carbon (C) between the Earth surface and the atmosphere is controlled by biological and abiotic processes that regulate C storage in biogeochemical compartments and release to the atmosphere. This partitioning is quantified using various forms of C-use efficiency (CUE) - the ratio of C remaining in a system to C entering that system....

Cereal-legume intercropping can increase yields, reduce fertilizer input and improve soil quality compared with pure culture. Designing intercropping systems requires the integration of plant species trait selection with choice of crop configuration and management. Crop growth models can facilitate the understanding and prediction of the interactio...

Climate change is predicted to hamper crop production due to precipitation deficits and warmer temperatures inducing both water stress and increasing herbivory due to more abundant insect pests. Consequently, crop yields will be impacted simultaneously by abiotic and biotic stressors. Extensive yield losses due to such climate change stressors migh...

This deliverable reportdescribesthe applicability of the Minimalist Mixture Model –M3–as a prototype tool for predicting performance of innovative plant teams. M3 has been developed as part of the work conducted in DIVERSify within WP3. M3, and its most recent further developments, are briefly described. The emphasis is on the general structure of...

Agriculture is facing the complex challenge of satisfying increasing food demands, despite the current and projected negative impacts of climate change on yields. Increasing crop diversity at a national scale has been suggested as an adaptive measure to better cope with negative climate impacts such as increasing temperatures and drought, but there...

Crop yield is reduced by heat and water stress, and even more when they co-occur. Yet, compound effects of air temperature and water availability on crop heat stress are poorly quantified: crop models, by relying at least partially on empirical functions, cannot account for the feedbacks of plant traits and response to heat and water stress on cano...

AimCereal-legume intercropping can result in yield gains compared to monocrops. We aim to identify the combination of crop traits and management practices that confer a yield advantage in strip intercropping.Methods We developed a novel, parameter-sparse process-based crop growth model (Minimalist Mixture Model, M3) that can simulate strip intercro...

Soil drying and wetting cycles promote carbon (C) release through large heterotrophic respiration pulses at rewetting, known as the “Birch” effect. Empirical evidence shows that drier conditions before rewetting and larger changes in soil moisture at rewetting cause larger respiration pulses. Because soil moisture varies in response to rainfall, th...

Dry spells are sequences of days without precipitation. They can have negative implications for societies, including water security and agriculture. For example, changes in their duration and within-year timing can pose a threat to food production and wildfire risk. Conversely, wet spells are sequences of days with precipitation above a certain thr...

When rainfall does not meet crop water requirements, supplemental irrigation is needed to maintain productivity. On-farm ponds can prevent excessive groundwater exploitation – to the benefit of the whole community – but they reduce the cultivated area and require investments by each farmer. Thus, choosing the source of water for irrigation (groundw...

The past decades have seen rapid advancements in space-based monitoring of essential water cycle variables, providing products related to precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, often at tens of kilometer scales. Whilst these data effectively characterize water cycle variability at regional to global scales, they are less suitable for...

In many regions precipitation does not reliably meet crop water demands – a situation that climate change will likely exacerbate. Supplemental irrigation can help enhance and stabilize crop yields, but the need of water for irrigation has often led to groundwater over-exploitation. On-farm ponds can provide a more sustainable water source. Their us...

Competition among plants of the same species often results in power-law relations between measures of crowding, such as plant density, and average size, such as individual biomass. Yoda's self-thinning rule, the constant final yield rule, and metabolic scaling, all link individual plant biomass to plant density and are widely applied in crop, fores...

Abstract. Soil drying and wetting cycles promote carbon (C) release through large heterotrophic respiration pulses at rewetting, known as Birch effect. Empirical evidence shows that drier conditions before rewetting and larger changes in soil moisture at rewetting cause larger respiration pulses. Because soil moisture varies in response to rainfall...

Boreal forests are warming faster than the rest of the planet. Do the benefits of higher temperatures and longer growing seasons for forest productivity exceed the negative effects of more frequent dry spells and heat waves, shifting precipitation patterns, and higher evaporative demands? And are the effects uniformly distributed geographically? To...

Respiration pulses at rewetting are prominent features of soil responses to soil moisture fluctuations. These pulses are much larger compared to respiration rates under constant soil moisture, pointing to variations in water availability as drivers of the enhanced CO2 production. Moreover, the respiration pulses tend to be larger when soil moisture...

As a source of food, feed, biomass, and income, agriculture is central for human welfare, locally and globally. At the same time, agriculture exerts often unsustainable demand on natural resources, with potential negative cascading environmental effects. Population growth, richer diets, rising international trade, and climate change are expected to...

Perennial crops have been proposed as a more sustainable alternative to annual crops, because they have extended growing seasons, continuous ground cover, reduced nutrient leakage, and sequester more carbon in the soils than annual crops. One example is intermediate wheatgrass (Thinopyrum intermedium), a perennial crop that has been used as a cool-...

The availability of water is a growing concern for flooded rice production. As such, several water-saving irrigation practices have been developed to reduce water requirements. Alternate wetting and drying and mid-season drainage have been shown to potentially reduce water requirements while maintaining rice yields when compared to continuous flood...

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and is heavily influenced by climate. Climate variability can be diagnosed through metrics ranging from individual environmental variables, to collections of variables, to the so-called climate modes of variability. Similarly, the impact of a given climate variation on the terr...

In the future, boreal forests will face warmer and in some cases drier conditions, potentially resulting in extreme leaf temperatures and reduced photosynthesis. One potential and still partially unexplored avenue to prepare boreal forest for future climates is the identification of plant traits that may support photosynthetic rates under a changin...

Perennial grain crops have been suggested as a more sustainable alternative to annual crops. Yet their water use and how they are impacted by environmental conditions have been seldom compared to those of annual crops and grasslands. Here, we identify the dominant mechanisms driving evapotranspiration (ET), and how they change with environmental co...

Under future climates, leaf temperature (Tl) will be higher and more variable. This will affect plant carbon (C) balance because photosynthesis and respiration both respond to short‐term (sub‐daily) fluctuations in Tl and acclimate in the longer term (days to months). This study asks the question: to what extent can the potential and speed of photo...

Despite the appeal of the iso/anisohydric framework for classifying plant drought responses, recent studies have shown that such classifications can be strongly affected by a plantꞋs environment. Here we present measured in‐situ drought responses to demonstrate that apparent isohydricity can be conflated with environmental conditions that vary over...

The cycling of carbon (C) between the Earth surface and the atmosphere is controlled by biological and abiotic processes that regulate C storage in biogeochemical compartments and release to the atmosphere. This partitioning is quantified using various forms of C-use efficiency (CUE) – the ratio of C remaining in a system to C entering that system....

Many recent studies on drought-induced vegetation mortality have explored how plant functional traits, and classifications of such traits along axes of, for example, isohydry-anisohydry, might contribute to predicting drought survival and recovery. As these studies proliferate, the consistency and predictive value of such classifications need to be...

The cycling of carbon (C) between the Earth surface and the atmosphere is controlled by biological and abiotic processes that regulate C storage in biogeochemical compartments and release to the atmosphere. This partitioning is quantified using various forms of C-use efficiency (CUE) – the ratio of C remaining in a system over C entering that syste...

The sustainable management of unwanted vegetation in agricultural fields through integrated weed control strategies requires detailed knowledge about the maternal formation of primary seed dormancy, to support the prediction of seedling emergence dynamics. This knowledge is decisive for the timing of crop sowing and nonchemical weed control measure...

Environmental monitoring plays a central role in diagnosing climate and management impacts on natural and agricultural systems; enhancing the understanding of hydrological processes; optimizing the allocation and distribution of water resources; and assessing, forecasting, and even preventing natural disasters. Nowadays, most monitoring and data co...

Despite contributing to economy and food security, Ecosystem Services (ES) are still not fully exploited in agriculture. Instead, external inputs have been used to boost yields, while exacting costs on public goods. Ecological intensification capitalizes on ecosystem services to enhance and stabilize production and reduce the need for external inpu...

Environmental monitoring plays a central role in diagnosing climate and management impacts on natural and agricultural systems, enhancing the understanding hydrological processes, optimizing the allocation and distribution of water resources, and assessing, forecasting and even preventing natural disasters. Nowadays, most monitoring and data collec...

Stochastic weather generators can generate very long time series of weather patterns, which are indispensable in earth sciences, ecology and climate research. Yet, both their potential and limitations remain largely unclear because past research has typically focused on eclectic case studies at small spatial scales in temperate climates. In additio...

Population growth and changes in climate and diets will likely further increase the pressure on agriculture and water resources globally. Currently, staple crops are obtained from annuals plants. A shift towards perennial crops may enhance many ecosystem services, but at the cost of higher water requirements and lower yields. It is still unclear wh...

Farm specialization and associated simplification of the crop rotation raise concern about the ability of cropping systems to deliver high and stable yield in the long-term. Exploiting data from 52 years of a long-term experiment in Southern Sweden, we investigated impacts of three conventional cropping systems (‘crop-livestock’, ‘specialized’, and...

Quantifying the inter-annual variability of hydrologic variables (such as annual flow volumes, solute or sediment loads) is a central challenge in hydrologic modeling. Annual or seasonal hydrologic variables are themselves the integral of instantaneous variations, and can be well-approximated as an aggregate sum of the daily variable. Process-based...