Giovanni Forzieri

Giovanni Forzieri
University of Florence | UNIFI · Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale (DICEA)

PhD Civil and Environmental Engineering

About

73
Publications
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Publications

Publications (73)
Article
Full-text available
Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience)1. Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience2, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we inte...
Article
Full-text available
We present “EU-Trees4F”, a dataset of current and future potential distributions of 67 tree species in Europe at 10 km spatial resolution. We provide both climatically suitable future areas of occupancy and the future distribution expected under a scenario of natural dispersal for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three time steps (2...
Article
Full-text available
The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003–2014 as a function of key environmental...
Article
Full-text available
One of the possible consequences of projected global warming is the progressive enlargement of drylands. This study investigates to what extent population and land-use (forests, pastures, and croplands) are likely to be in areas turning arid in the 21st century. The first part of the study focuses on the climatological enlargement of arid areas at...
Article
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Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity...
Article
Full-text available
Forest disturbance regimes are expected to intensify as Earth’s climate changes. Quantifying forest vulnerability to disturbances and understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, observational evidence is largely missing at regional to continental scales. Here, we quantify the vulnerab...
Article
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The rapid polar sea ice retreat and its drivers are challenging and still unresolved questions in climate change research. In particular, the relationship between near-surface wind speed and sea ice extent remains unclear for two main reasons: 1) observed wind speeds over Polar Regions are very sparse, and 2) simulated winds by climate models are d...
Article
Full-text available
The rapid polar sea ice retreat and its drivers are challenging and still unresolved questions in climate change research. In particular, the relationship between near-surface wind speed and sea ice extent remains unclear for two main reasons: (1) observed wind speeds over Polar Regions are very sparse, and (2) simulated winds by climate models are...
Article
Full-text available
Clouds play an important role in the climate sys- tem: (1) cooling Earth by reflecting incoming sunlight to space and (2) warming Earth by reducing thermal energy loss to space. Cloud radiative effects are especially important in polar regions and have the potential to significantly alter the impact of sea ice decline on the surface radiation budge...
Article
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Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. In a changing climate, forest management is expected to play a fundamental role by preserving the functioning of forest ecosystems and enhancing the adaptive processes. Understanding and quantifying the future forest coverage in view of climate changes is therefore crucial...
Technical Report
Droughts induce a complex web of impacts that span many sectors of the economy, as exemplified by extensive crop failure, reduced power supply, and shipping interruptions in the EU during 2018 and 2019. With global warming droughts will happen more frequent, last longer and become more intense in southern and western parts of Europe, while drought...
Technical Report
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During intense heatwaves in June and July 2019, all-time temperature records were broken in many locations in Europe. These events are projected to happen more frequently and become more intense with climate change. Projections show that the number of citizens in the EU and UK exposed to heatwaves will grow from 10 million/year (average 1981-2010)...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extrem...
Article
Full-text available
Changes in vegetation structure are expected to influence the redistribution of heat and moisture; however, how variations in the leaf area index (LAI) affect this global energy partitioning is not yet quantified. Here, we estimate that a unit change in LAI leads to 3.66 ± 0.45 and −3.26 ± 0.41 W m−2 in latent (LE) and sensible (H) fluxes, respecti...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for the human wellbeing and their ability is influenced by climate background and further connected to forest management strategies. Italy is a well-known biodiversity hotspot but an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change is still missing in this country....
Article
Full-text available
Strong winds may uproot and break trees and represent a major natural disturbance for European forests. Wind disturbances have intensified over the last decades globally and are expected to further rise in view of the effects of climate change. Despite the importance of such natural disturbances, there are currently no spatially explicit databases...
Article
Strong winds may uproot and break trees and represent a major natural disturbance for European forests. Wind disturbances have intensified over the last decades globally and are expected to further rise in view of the effects of climate change. Despite the importance of such natural disturbances, there are currently no spatially explicit databases...
Article
Full-text available
Strong winds may uproot and break trees and represent one of the major natural disturbances for European forests. Wind disturbances have intensified over the last decades globally and are expected to further rise in view of the climate change effects. Despite the importance of such natural disturbances, there are currently no spatially-explicit dat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Clouds plays an important role on the climate system through two main contrasting effects: (1) cooling the Earth by reflecting to space part of incoming solar radiation; (2) warming the surface by reducing the Earth’s loss of thermal energy to space. Recently, scientists have paid more attention to the warming role of clouds because of th...
Preprint
Full-text available
Strong winds may uproot and break trees and represent one of the major natural disturbances for European forests. Wind disturbances have intensified over the last decades globally and are expected to further rise in view of the climate change effects. Despite the importance of such natural disturbances, there are currently no spatially-explicit dat...
Article
Full-text available
Critical infrastructures (CIs) are assets, systems, or parts thereof that are essential for the maintenance of socioeconomic functions, health, safety and well-being of people. The exposure of CIs to natural and man-made hazards poses a risk to the economy and society. The spatial distribution of CIs and their economic value are a prerequisite for...
Article
Extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent owing to global warming. This may put additional stress on critical infrastructures with typically long life spans. However, little is known about the risks of multiple climate extremes on critical infrastructures at regional to continental scales. Here we show how single-and multi-hazard d...
Article
Full-text available
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) alter the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface. The associated changes in vegetation cover can perturb the local surface energy balance, which in turn can affect the local climate. The sign and magnitude of this change in climate depends on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and its locati...
Article
Li et al. contest the idea that vegetation greening has contributed to boreal warming and argue that the sensitivity of temperature to leaf area index (LAI) is instead likely driven by the climate impact on vegetation. We provide additional evidence that the LAI-climate interplay is indeed largely driven by the vegetation impact on temperature and...
Article
Full-text available
Land Surface Models (LSMs) are essential to reproduce biophysical processes modulated by vegetation and to predict the future evolution of the land‐climate system. To assess the performance of an ensemble of LSMs (JSBACH, JULES, ORCHIDEE, CLM and LPJ‐GUESS) a consistent set of land surface energy fluxes and leaf area index (LAI) has been generated....
Article
Full-text available
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) alter the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface. The associated changes in vegetation cover can perturb the local surface energy balance, which in turn can affect the local climate. The sign and magnitude of this change in climate depends on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location,...
Article
Full-text available
Extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent owing to global warming. This may put additional stress on critical infrastructures with typically long life spans. However, little is known about the risks of multiple climate extremes on critical infrastructures at regional to continental scales. Here we show how single- and multi-hazard...
Article
Full-text available
Background: The observed increase in the effects on human beings of weather-related disasters has been largely attributed to the rise in population exposed, with a possible influence of global warming. Yet, future risks of weather-related hazards on human lives in view of climate and demographic changes have not been comprehensively investigated. M...
Article
Changes in vegetation cover associated to the observed greening may affect several biophysical processes, whose net effects on climate are unclear. Here, we analyze remotely sensed dynamics in leaf area index (LAI) and energy fluxes to explore the associated variation in local climate. We show that the increasing trend in LAI contributed to the war...
Article
Full-text available
While reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. Several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. A multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple...
Article
Full-text available
EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe), a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensem...
Article
Full-text available
EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe), a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensem...
Article
Due to its marked vegetation phenology and precipitation gradients, the North American Monsoon Region (NAMR) is a useful domain for studying ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. To this end, we analyze long-term dynamics (1982–2004) in monsoon precipitation (Pr), time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) used...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The extreme heat wave that occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010 was the strongest in the world recorded in the recent period. There is evidence that the anomalous 2010 heat, with serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest European summer in 2003. There is strong evidence l...
Data
Full-text available
The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, touri...
Book
Full-text available
The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, touri...
Article
Full-text available
There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity and frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climate change. In order to plan suitable adaptation strategies it is important for decision makers to know how drought conditions will develop at regional scales. This paper therefore addresses the issue of futur...
Article
Full-text available
To elucidate the potential role of vegetation to act as a memory source in the southwestern North America climate system, we explore correlation structures of remotely sensed vegetation dynamics with precipitation, temperature and teleconnection indices over 1982-2006 for six ecoregions. We found that lagged correlations between vegetation dynamics...
Article
Full-text available
There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity and fre-quency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of global change. In order to plan suitable adaptation strategies it is important for decision makers to know how drought conditions will develop at regional scales. This paper therefore addresses the issue 5 of fut...
Article
"The recent and forthcoming availability of high spatial resolution imagery from satellite and airborne" "sensors offers the possibility to generate an increasing number of remote sensing products and opens new promising opportunities for multi-sensor classification. Data fusion strategies, applied to modern airborne Earth observation systems, inclu...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Recent developments in climate modeling suggest that global warming and growing human water use are likely to favor conditions for the development of streamflow droughts in several parts of Europe by the end of this century. In this study, we quantify how future drought hazard in Europe may develop in view of these drivers by comparing low-flow pre...
Article
Full-text available
Due to its marked plant phenology driven by precipitation, the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) can serve to reveal ecological responses to climate variability and change in water-controlled regions. This study attempts to elucidate the effects of monsoon rainfall variability on vegetation dynamics over the North American Monsoon Experiment (NA...
Article
Full-text available
Riparian vegetation plays a crucial role on affecting the floodplain hydraulic roughness, which in turn significantly influences the dynamics of flood waves. This work explores the potential accuracies of retrieving vegetation hydrodynamic parameters through satellite multispectral data. The method is focused on estimation of vegetation height and...
Article
Full-text available
The recent and forthcoming availability of very high spatial resolution imagery from satellite and airborne sensors offers the possibility to generate an increasing number of remote sensing products and opens new promising opportunities for land-cover mapping applications. Data fusion strategies, applied to modern airborne Earth observation systems...
Article
The potential and limitations of the hyperspectral remote sensing MIVIS sensor (Multispectral Infrared Visible Imaging Spectrometer) in classifying heterogeneous landscapes are explored in this study. In order to quantify the discriminant information derived from selected MIVIS subsets we classified a monitored scenario by progressively increasing...
Article
The purpose of this work is to test a method to automatically detect landslides using change detection techniques on airborne sensor data. High spatial resolution multispectral and digital surface model data acquired in two different times are used to identify landslides on a 80 km transect of the Marecchia valley, Italy. Multispectral ADS40 and Li...
Article
Full-text available
Riparian vegetation plays a crucial role in affecting the floodplain hydraulic roughness, which in turn significantly influences the dynamics of flood waves. Systematic detection, identification and assessment of flow resistance factors using conventional field sampling is often unfeasible as these techniques are time-consuming and expensive. As in...
Article
Streamside vegetation plays a multifunctional role in many interconnected hydraulic, ecological and sedimentological processes of great interest for flood risk assessment and river restoration practices, which need frequent riparian vegetation maintenance interventions. The reuse of riparian vegetation as a potential energy source represents a sust...