Giorgio Fagiolo

Giorgio Fagiolo
Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies | SSSUP · Institute of Economics

PhD in Economics

About

176
Publications
51,094
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11,225
Citations
Additional affiliations
April 2005 - July 2007
University of Verona
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)
Position
  • Professor (Associate)

Publications

Publications (176)
Preprint
High-resolution gridded climate data are readily available from multiple sources, yet climate research and decision-making increasingly require country and region-specific climate information weighted by socio-economic factors. Moreover, the current landscape of disparate data sources and inconsistent weighting methodologies exacerbates the reprodu...
Article
Full-text available
The idiosyncratic and systemic components of market structure have been shown to be responsible for the departure of the optimal mean-variance allocation from the heuristic ‘equally weighted’ portfolio. In this paper, we exploit clustering techniques derived from Random Matrix Theory to study a third, intermediate (mesoscopic) market structure that...
Article
Full-text available
Although high-resolution gridded climate variables are provided by multiple sources, the need for country and region-specific climate data weighted by indicators of economic activity is becoming increasingly common in environmental and economic research. We process available information from different climate data sources to provide spatially aggre...
Article
Full-text available
This paper empirically investigates the role played by cross-country spillovers in shaping spatiotemporal differences in country income. While existing literature focused on effects captured by direct spillovers with partner countries only, here we take a complex network perspective to explore whether the global embeddedness of countries in the mac...
Article
We evaluate the exposure of Italian regions to employment and the health risk associated with the spread of COVID-19. First, we estimate the degree of participation of Italian regions in a plurality of value chains linked to consumption, investment and exports. Second, we investigate the different levels of contagion risk associated with each value...
Article
We build a novel interregional computational input–output model to assess the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. Lockdowns are modeled as shocks to labor supply, calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. When estimated on data from the first lockdown, our model closely reproduces t...
Preprint
Full-text available
The idiosyncratic (microscopic) and systemic (macroscopic) components of market structure have been shown to be responsible for the departure of the optimal mean-variance allocation from the heuristic `equally-weighted' portfolio. In this paper, we exploit clustering techniques derived from Random Matrix Theory (RMT) to study a third, intermediate...
Article
Understanding specialization patterns of countries in food production can provide relevant insights for the evaluation and design of policies seeking to achieve food security and sustainability, which are key to reach several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper builds bipartite networks of food products and food-producing countries, us...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this work, we evaluate the exposure of Italian regions to the risk associated with the spread of COVID-19 through a two-step value chain approach. First, we estimate the degree of participation of Italian regions in a plurality of value chains linked to consumption, investment and exports. We distinguish between value chains aimed at satisfying...
Preprint
Full-text available
The unprecedented lockdown measures implemented by many countries in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have created a need for tools to assess their economic costs. For this purpose, we present a novel dynamic input-output modelling framework which we apply to an estimation of the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. Lockdown measures are treated...
Article
Full-text available
Using a complex-network perspective, this paper empirically explores the determinants of the process through which countries, given their capabilities, specialize in agricultural production. Using FAO production data for the period 1993-2013, we characterize the agricultural production space as a time-sequence of bipartite networks, connecting coun...
Article
Full-text available
This paper extends the endogenous growth agent-based model in Fagiolo and Dosi (Struct Change Econ Dyn 14(3):237–273, 2003) to study the finance–growth nexus. We explore industries where firms produce a homogeneous good using existing technologies, perform R&D activities to introduce new techniques, and imitate the most productive practices. Unlike...
Article
Full-text available
This paper considers the heterogeneous microfoundations of agglomeration economies. It studies the co-location of industries to look for evidence of labor pooling, input sharing, and knowledge spillovers. The novel contribution of the paper is that it estimates single-industry models using a common empirical framework that exploits the cross-sectio...
Preprint
Full-text available
Understanding specialization patterns of countries in food production can provide relevant insights for the evaluation and design of policies seeking to achieve food security and sustainability, which are key to reach several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this paper, we use production data from FAO for the period 1993 to 2013 to build bi...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract In this work we introduce and analyze a new and comprehensive multilayer dataset covering a wide spectrum of international relationships between coutries. We select two cross sections of the dataset corresponding to years 2003 and 2010 with 19 layers and 112 nodes to study the structure and evolution of the network. Country centrality is m...
Preprint
Full-text available
In the last years, there has been a growing interest in studying the global food system as a complex evolving network. Much of the literature has been focusing on the way countries are interconnected in the food system through international-trade linkages, and what consequences this may have in terms of food security and sustainability. Little atte...
Chapter
Since the survey by Windrum et al. (Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10:8, 2007), research on empirical validation of agent-based models in economics has made substantial advances, thanks to a constant flow of high-quality contributions. This Chapter attempts to take stock of such recent literature to offer an updated critical...
Article
In this paper, we analyze whether the recent global process of strengthening and harmonization of intellectual property rights (IPRs) affects decisions of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We investigate if IPRs have a differential effect across sectors of different technology content and for countries of different development level. Al...
Article
In the original publication of this article (Abbate et al. 2018), a disclaimer was omitted. The authors wish to state the following: The views expressed in this study are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect those of the Swiss National Bank. The authors regret the omission.
Article
In this paper, we study how the topology of the International Trade Network (ITN) changes in geographical space, and along time. We employ geographical distance between countries in the world to filter the links in the ITN, building a sequence of subnetworks, each one featuring trade links occurring at similar distance. We then test if the assortat...
Article
Full-text available
Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the co...
Book
Full-text available
In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and schola...
Article
Full-text available
A considerable amount of studies in the transport literature is aimed at understanding the behavioural processes underlying travel choices, like mode and destination choices. In the present work, we propose the use of evolutionary game theory as a framework to study commuter mode choice. Evolutionary game models work under the assumptions that agen...
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyses the world web of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using a complex network approach. We use data of M&As to build a temporal sequence of binary and weighted-directed networks for the period 1995–2010 and 224 countries (nodes) connected according to their M&As flows (links). We study different geographical and temporal aspects of t...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This paper extends the endogenous-growth agent-based model in Fagiolo and Dosi (2003) to study the finance-growth nexus. We explore industries where firms produce a homogeneous good using existing technologies, perform R&D activities to introduce new techniques, and imitate the most productive practices. Unlike the original model, we assume that bo...
Preprint
Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the co...
Article
This paper analyzes the world web of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using a complex network approach. We use data of M&As to build a temporal sequence of binary and weighted-directed networks, for the period 1995-2010 and 224 countries. We study different geographical and temporal aspects of the international M&As network (IMAN), building sequence...
Preprint
This paper analyses the world web of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using a complex network approach. We use data of M&As to build a temporal sequence of binary and weighted-directed networks for the period 1995-2010 and 224 countries (nodes) connected according to their M&As flows (links). We study different geographical and temporal aspects of t...
Article
Full-text available
The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for economic analysis, in that it has shown the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework — the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) — grounded on the DSGE model. In this paper, we present a critical discussion of the theoretical, empirical and political-economy pitfalls of the DSGE-based a...
Article
Full-text available
We study the relationships between firm financial structure and growth for a large sample of Italian firms (1998–2003). We expand upon existing analyses testing whether liquidity constraints affect firm expansion by considering amongst growth determinants also firm debt structure within a unified framework. Panel regression analyses show that more...
Chapter
This chapter critically surveys the recent empirical literature applying complex-network techniques to the study of macroeconomic dynamics. We focus on three important macroeconomic networks: international trade, finance and migration/mobility. We discuss both the empirical evidence on the topological properties of these networks and econometric wo...
Article
This work investigates the impact of climate variability on internal migration flows in post-apartheid South Africa. We combine information from South African censuses and climatic data to build a panel database covering the waves 1997–2001 and 2007–2011. The database enables the examination of the effect of spatiotemporal variability in temperatur...
Article
We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch bet...
Article
The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for economic analysis, in that it has shown the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework | the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) | grounded on the DSGE model. In this paper, we present a critical discussion of the theoretical, empirical and political-economy pitfalls of the DSGE-based a...
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyses whether the strengthening of intellectual property rights (IPRs) systems affects decisions of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), and if their influence is different for developed and developing countries, and across industrial sectors. We estimate an extended gravity model to study bilateral number of M&As using data...
Article
This note revisits the role of migrant social networks (MSNs) as determinants of bilateral migration flows. We do so using two alternative databases, covering about 190 world countries for the period 1960-2000. In line with previous estimates, we consistently find a significant, positive, impact of MSNs at destination. We also find that such an imp...
Article
What is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions? We study this issue using an agent-based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities. Simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained, counter-cyclical...
Article
We study the impact of international migration on enrollment of the left-behinds in Albania using the 2008 and 2012 Living Standard Measurement Survey. We employ a two-stage Probit model controlling for endogeneity with an instrumental-variable approach. We find that migration has a negative and significant impact on enrollment in both waves. This...
Article
In this paper we contribute to the debate on macro-prudential regulation by assessing which structure of the nancial system is more resilient to exogenous shocks, and which conditions, in terms of balance sheet compositions, capital requirements and asset prices, guarantee the higher degree of stability. We use techniques drawn from the theory of c...
Article
This paper asks whether the level of integration of world countries in the international network of temporary human mobility can explain differences in their per-capita income and labor productivity. We disentangle the role played by global country centrality in the network from traditional openness measures, which only account for local, nearest-n...
Article
Full-text available
In economic and financial networks, the strength (total value of the connections) of a given node has always an important economic meaning, such as the size of supply and demand, import and export, or financial exposure. Constructing null models of networks matching the observed strengths of all nodes is crucial in order to either detect interestin...
Article
In the present work we investigate how the state of credit markets non-linearly affects the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model on U.S quarterly data for the period 1984-2010. We employ the spread between BAA-rated corporate bond yield and 10-Years treasury constant maturity rate as a proxy for cred...
Data
Full-text available
This highly preliminary work attempts to study the multiple drivers of agglomeration phenomena in contemporary economies and proposes a tentative taxonomy where the conditions of knowledge accumulation, often specific-to-specific locations and specific sectors, play a paramount role. We discuss the achievements and limitations of current theorizing...
Article
We study the impact of international migration on enrollment of the left-behinds in Albania using the 2008 and 2012 Living Standard Measurement Survey. We employ a 2-stage Probit model controlling for endogeneity with an instrumental-variable approach. We find that migration has a negative and significant impact on enrollment in both waves. This re...
Article
Full-text available
This paper explores the relationships between international human migration and merchandise trade, using a complex-network approach. We firstly compare the topological structure of worldwide networks of human migration and bilateral trade over the period 1960-2000. Next, we ask whether the position of any pair of countries in the migration network...
Article
Full-text available
Network topology plays a key role in many phenomena, from the spreading of diseases to that of financial crises. Whenever the whole structure of a network is unknown, one must resort to reconstruction methods that identify the least biased ensemble of networks consistent with the partial information available. A challenging case, frequently encount...
Article
We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch bet...
Article
Network topology plays a key role in many phenomena, from the spreading of diseases to that of financial crises. Whenever the whole structure of a network is unknown, one must resort to reconstruction methods that identify the least biased ensemble of networks consistent with the partial information available. A challenging case is when there is on...
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European countries before the Great Depressi...
Article
The issue of transportation is of primary importance in our societies. A large share of greenhouse gases is generated by the transport sector, and road casualties are one among the most common causes of death. In the present work, we study commuter choice between alternative transport modes using an evolutionary- game model, wherein commuters can c...
Article
This paper asks whether the level of integration of world countries in the international network of temporary human mobility can explain differences in their per-capita income and labor productivity. We disentangle the role played by global country centrality in the network from traditional openness measures, which only account for local, nearest-...
Article
Full-text available
This paper explores the relationships between migration and trade using a complex-network approach. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such correlations can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and geographical distance; (iii) pai...
Article
This paper studies international migration from a complex-network perspective. We define the international migration network (IMN) as the weighted-directed graph where nodes are world countries and links account for the stock of migrants originated in a given country and living in another country at a given point in time. We characterize the binary...
Article
We study trade imbalances between world countries in the period 1960-2000 using a complex-network approach. We show that trade imbalances in absolute value are characterized by a hierarchical arrangement wherein few rich economies display high clustering and carry an important amount of global-trade imbalances. In contrast, trade imbalances in rela...
Article
The recent crisis has highlighted the crucial role that existing linkages among banks and financial institutions plays in channeling and amplifying shocks hitting the system. The structure and evolution of such web of linkages can be fruitfully characterized using concepts borrowed from the theory of (complex) networks. This paper critically survey...
Article
In the present work we investigate how the state of credit markets non-linearly affect the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model on U.S quarterly data for the period 1984-2010. We employ the spread between BAA-rated corporate bond yield and 10-Years treasury constant maturity rate as a proxy for credi...
Article
This paper studies how the structure of the International Trade Network (ITN) changes in geographical space and along time. We employ geographical distance between countries in the world to filter the links in the ITN, building a sequence of sub-networks, each one featuring trade links occurring at similar distance. We then test if the topological...
Article
Full-text available
Using the "Keynes+Schumpeter" (K+S) agent-based model developed we study how the interplay between firms' investment behavior and income distribution shapes the short--and long-run dynamics of the economy at the aggregate level. We study the dynamics of investment under two different scenarios. One in which investment is fully determined by past pr...
Article
Full-text available
In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However, predictions of the available null-model methods can be derived analytically only under assumptions (e.g., spars...
Article
The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for macroeconomics showing the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework - the New Neoclassical Synthesis - grounded on the DSGE model. In this paper, we present a critical discussion of the theoretical, empirical and political-economy pitfalls of the DSGE-based approach to policy analy...
Article
As the recent crisis has forcefully suggested, understanding financial-market interconnectedness is of a paramount importance to explain systemic risk, stability and economic dynamics. In this paper, we address these issues along two related perspectives. First, we explore the statistical properties of the International Financial Network (IFN), def...
Article
This work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) on the grounds of an agent-based Keynesian model. The direct ancestor of this work is the "Keynes meeting Schumpeter" formalism presented in Dosi et al. (2010). To that mode...
Article
Recent empirical findings suggest that macroeconomic variables are seldom normally distributed. For example, the distributions of aggregate output growth-rate time series of many OECD countries are well approximated by symmetric exponential-power (EP) densities, with Laplace fat tails. In this work, we assess whether Real Business Cycle (RBC) and s...
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques and we employ GM estimates to build a weighted predicted ITN, whose topological properties are compared to obser...
Article
In this paper, we present an agent-based, evolutionary, model of output- and labor-market dynamics. Firms produce a homogeneous, perishable good under constant returns to scale using labor only. Labor productivities are firm-specific and change stochastically due to technical progress. The key feature of the model resides in an explicit microfounda...
Article
Full-text available
The international trade network (ITN) has received renewed multidisciplinary interest due to recent advances in network theory. However, it is still unclear whether a network approach conveys additional, nontrivial information with respect to traditional international-economics analyses that describe world trade only in terms of local (first-order)...
Article
Full-text available
Based on the misleading expectation that weighted network properties always offer a more complete description than purely topological ones, current economic models of the International Trade Network (ITN) generally aim at explaining local weighted properties, not local binary ones. Here we complement our analysis of the binary projections of the IT...
Article
The issue of estimating the persistence of a dynamic process arises frequently in many micro and macro applied exercises. In this note we study the statistical properties of a simple index of persistence. We show that the index is normally-distributed and we estimate its expected value and standard deviations under different benchmark null hypothes...
Article
Full-text available
This paper employs a homogeneous-firm database to investigate industry localization in European countries. More specifically, it compares, across industries and countries, the predictions of two of the most popular localization indexes, that is, the Ellison and Glaeser index of 1997 and the Duranton and Overman index of 2005. Independently from the...
Article
Full-text available
In this sequel to a companion paper, we complement our analysis of the binary projections of the International Trade Network (ITN) by considering its weighted representations. We show that, unlike the binary case, all possible weighted representations of the ITN (directed/undirected, aggregated/ disaggregated) cannot be traced back to local structu...
Article
Full-text available
The international trade network (ITN) has received renewed multidisciplinary interest due to recent advances in network theory. However, it is still unclear whether a network approach conveys additional, nontrivial information with respect to traditional international-economics analyses that describe world trade only in terms of local (rst-order) p...