Giacomo Grassi

European Commission | ec · Joint Research Centre (JRC)

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use C...

Background Different methods estimating the global anthropogenic land flux, which is dominated by forest-related activities, vary in magnitude and direction with respect to whether the land is a net source or sink. One reason for these variations is the extent to which methods consider land to be “managed”, thus contributing to the anthropogenic fl...

Forest area and the volume of timber stocks are essential variables describing forest resources. These information are collected within the European Forest Accounts of EUROSTAT, which include a set of accounts quantifying the stocks and flows for forest, and forestry and logging industry. The reporting on economic variables is much more complete th...

Quantification of land surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 f...

A global, independent scientific assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal

Anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes on land constitute substantial CO2 emissions and removals but are usually not well distinguished in national greenhouse gas reporting. Instead, countries frequently combine natural and indirect human-induced CO2 fluxes on managed land in their reports, which diminishes their usefulness for designing policies con...

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets...

Despite an increasing attention on the role of land in meeting countries' climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, the range of estimates of carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) in available databases is very large. A good understanding of the LULUCF data reported by countries under the United Nations Framework Conv...

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise data sets...

This report presents the fossil CO2 emission time series of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) from 1970 until 2021, together with CO2 emissions and removals from land use and forestry for period 1990 to 2020. For the first time, the report uses IEA calculated fossil-fuel CO2 emissions directly where appropriate, rather...

With the focus of climate policy shifting from pledges to implementation, there is an increasing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at country level, especially for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models offering unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use...

The timely and accurate monitoring of forest resources is becoming of increasing importance in light of the multi-functionality of these ecosystems and their increasing vulnerability to climate change. Remote sensing observations of tree cover and systematic ground observations from National Forest Inventories (NFIs) represent the two major sources...

To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) net carbon sink from forests should increase from the current level of about −360 to −450 Mt CO2eq yr−1 by 2050. Reaching this target requires additional efforts, which should be informed by the expected interactions between current age-class distributions, the effect of forest management...

Land-based mitigation plays a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and thus in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, the attribution of measured carbon fluxes to its sinks and sources and defining the land carbon uptake potential remains highly uncertain. Despite the ever-increasing availability of data, in Europe, there is st...

p>Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets...

In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO2) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by cou...

Despite an increasing attention on the role of land in meeting countries' climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, the range of estimates of carbon fluxes from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in available databases is very large. A good understanding of the LULUCF data reported by countries under the United Nations Framework Conve...

Despite an increasing attention on the role of land in meeting countries’ climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, the range of estimates of carbon fluxes from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in available databases is very large. A good understanding of the LULUCF data reported by countries under the United Nations Framework Conve...

The debate on forest bioenergy sustainability has been so far dominated by assessments made through the carbon emissions lens. The biodiversity perspective has been largely missing. The European Green Deal's ambitious targets have brought biodiversity and ecosystem condition restoration and conservation to the core of the EU's legislative portfolio...

The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003–2014 as a function of key environmental...

To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) net carbon sink from forests should increase from the current level of about −360 Mt CO2e yr−1 to −450 Mt CO2e yr−1 by 2050. Reaching this target requires additional efforts, which should be based on a strategic view of the realistic evolution of European forests within the next decades, c...

Forests are under pressure to provide biomass for different uses, but also to mitigate climate change and house biodiversity. In the EU, there is an intense debate around which functions to prioritize, and the role of scientists is increasingly critical in the quest for policy coherence.

The European Union (EU) aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. Within the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, forestry will contribute to this target with CO 2 sink, harvested wood products (HWP), and use of wood for material or energy substitution. Despite the fact that the forest sink currently offsets about 9% of the to...

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets...

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models...

Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage. We review the literature on bioenergy use for climate change mitigation, including studies that use top‐down integrated assessment models or bottom‐up modelling,...

In support of the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement on Climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of atmospheric inversions in order to make them suitable for evaluating UNFCCC national inventories of land-use carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and removals, corresponding to the Land Use, Land Use Change...

The EU is at the forefront in fighting climate change. Following the commitments relevant for the Paris Agreement, the EU has recently pledged to cut off 55% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 and to reach climate neutrality in 2050. Currently, the Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector counterbalances about...

Background The contribution of EU forests to climate change mitigation in 2021–2025 is assessed through the Forest Reference Levels (FRLs). The FRL is a projected country-level benchmark of net greenhouse gas emissions against which the future net emissions will be compared. The FRL models the hypothetical development of EU forest carbon sink if th...

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and na...

1. Assessing the role of the forest-based bioeconomy in mitigating climate change requires a “system-perspective”, considering all possible options: increasing carbon stocks (‘net sink’) in forest land and in Harvested Wood Products (HWPs), and using wood to substitute other materials or fossil fuels. 2. Reducing the harvest appears the easiest op...

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories represent the link between national and international political actions on climate change, and climate and environmental sciences. Inventory agencies need to include, in national GHG inventories, emission and removal estimates based on scientific data following specific reporting guidance under the United N...

Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, ho...

A recent study on forest harvest in the EU (Ceccherini et al. 2020) reported a strong increase in clear-cut harvested area in recent years, based on remote sensing information. This triggered a heated debate and many critical comments. Apart from several fair and constructive criticisms, which were welcome, we found that some comments have been eit...

National, regional and global CO2 emissions and removals from forests were estimated for the period 1990–2020 using as input the country reports of the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020. The new Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates, based on a simple carbon stock change approach, update published information...

This report focuses on the second task of the Administrative Arrangement ESTAT-2019-0300 signed between DG ESTAT and DG JRC. This agreement aims to develop a method to gap-fill the data reported on Table A2a, as provided by the European Forest Accounts (EFA) of EUROSTAT, and gap-fill this table for the period of 2000–2019. This task also includes a...

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and na...

Regulation (EU) 2018/8411 (‘LULUCF regulation’) sets the accounting rules for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector in the EU for 2021–2030, i.e. how the emissions and removals of greenhouse gases from LULUCF will be counted towards the climate targets2. The LULUCF regulation is part of the EU’s commitment to reduce overall emi...

Trends in global, regional and national CO2 emissions and removals from forest for the period 1990-2020, are estimated for the first time using data from the Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 2020, providing new information with respect to the previous FRA 2015. Estimates indicate significant reduction of deforestation emissions over the study peri...

Forests provide a series of ecosystem services that are crucial to our society. In the European Union (EU), forests account for approximately 38% of the total land surface1. These forests are important carbon sinks, and their conservation efforts are vital for the EU’s vision of achieving climate neutrality by 20502. However, the increasing demand...

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co‐benefits wi...

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, including estimates of uncertainties, to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from...

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) affects the climate through both biogeochemical (BGC) and biophysical (BPH) mechanisms. While BGC effects are assessed at global scale and are at the heart of climate treaties such as the Paris Agreement, BPH effects are totally absent despite their increasingly recognized impact, especially at local scale. Th...

Methods to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and removals in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector can be divided into two broad categories: 1) methods that can be applied in a similar way for any of the types of land use (i.e., generic methods for Forest Land, Cropland, Grassland, Wetlands, Settlements and Other Land); and 2)...

As countries advance in greenhouse gas accounting for climate change mitigation, consistent estimates of aboveground net biomass change are needed. Countries with limited forest monitoring capabilities in the tropics and sub‐ tropics rely on IPCC 2006 default rates, which are values per ecological zone, per continent. Similarly, research into fores...

Abstract A recent article by Luyssaert et al. (Nature 562:259–262, 2018) analyses the climate impact of forest management in the European Union, considering both biogeochemical (i.e., greenhouse gases, GHG) and biophysical (e.g., albedo, transpiration, etc.) effects. Based on their findings, i.e. that additional net overall climate benefits from fo...

Recognizing that some but not all countries may choose to address emissions and removals from natural disturbances on managed land outside the inventory process, this guidance is provided as an option that may be used by countries that choose to disaggregate their reported MLP emissions and removals (i.e. all emissions and removals on managed land)...

25 Emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, along with estimates of their inherent uncertainties, in order to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthro...

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land‐degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 p...