Ghislain Dubois

• PhD
• Research Director at TEC Conseil

Les stratégies d’adaptation au changement climatique devraient normalement s’appuyer sur la meilleure information climatique disponible. Or le constat scientifique initial est souvent transformé, interprété, mis en forme par le processus de politique publique. Le message original s’en trouve modifié, et la qualité de sa communication initiale peut...

Alors que le tourisme et le transport aérien se relèvent de l’impact de la Covid-19 et des problèmes structurels qu’elle a mis en lumière (conditions de travail, etc.), cela paraît être le moment de faire un bilan et une synthèse combinant les thématiques suivantes : les scénarios d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre du tourisme pour lesquels des tr...

Ski tourism plays a major socio-economic role in the snowy and mountainous areas of Europe such as the Alps, the Pyrenees, Nordic Europe, Eastern Europe, Anatolia, etc. Past and future climate change has an impact on the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snowfall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However,...

The development of tourism in emerging countries is expected to be a major contributor to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions from tourism worldwide and also to question these countries’ mitigation objectives. Using scenarios, this issue is assessed for the case of Brazil. Emissions from aviation are shown to be a major challenge in this conte...

The rapid development of tourism in emerging countries is a major contributor to the sector’s growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An assessment of emissions produced by Brazilian tourists confirms this trend, and reveals the importance of each country’s unique economic, social and environmental factors, which make it difficult to treat emerging...

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority...

The SOCLIMPACT project aims at modelling downscaled Climate Change effects and their economic impacts in European islands and archipelagos in the context of the EU Blue Economy, and to assess corresponding decarbonisation and adaptation pathways, thus complementing current available projections for Europe, and nourishing actual economic models with...

MODES DE VIE ET PRATIQUES ENVIRONNEMENTALES DES FRANÇAIS : Depuis la création d’un ministère chargé de cette question au début des années 1970, la protection de l’environnement s’est progressivement imposée dans l’espace public. Partant de ce constat, plusieurs questions se posent : dans quelle mesure la société française a-t-elle changé son rappor...

À la suite de la COP21, le travail introspectif sur les modes de vie des ménages et leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre a été accéléré. Dans le cadre du projet européen HOPE, des ménages de la région aixoise ont été approchés afin d’évaluer leur empreinte carbone et les incidences monétaires et sanitaires de choix d’actions vers un mode de vie...

Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate pr...

Background It is now universally acknowledged that climate change constitutes a major threat to human health. At the same time, some of the measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so-called climate change mitigation measures, have significant health co-benefits (e.g., walking or cycling more; eating less meat). The goal of limiting global warm...

This paper aims at contributing to the assessment of the emissions of the tourists from emerging countries through an evaluation of the current emissions of tourism from the Brazilian population, within their country and internationally. It starts from a double idea often mentioned in the literature of these last 10 years: i.e. that tourism current...

Tourism climate indices (TCI) are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, from the planning, investment or daily operations perspectives. A substantial amount of research has been carried out, in particular with respect to new indices formulae adapted to specific tourism products, and parameters and their w...

Tourism has complex relationships with weather and climate, and there is consensus that tourism could be substantially affected by climatic change. While considerable research has been presented on how climatic change is likely to affect destinations and tourism stakeholders in the future, there remains limited understanding of the weather preferen...

Ce cahier thématique a été réalisé par le Groupe régional d’experts sur le climat en Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (GREC-PACA). Il a été coordonné par l’association A.I.R. Climat (Philippe ROSSELLO) qui a pour mission d’animer le GREC-PACA. Le projet bénéficie d’un financement au titre de la Convention Etat - Région Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur - ADEME.

This report draws together lessons learned about good practice in communicating confidence and uncertainty in climate predictions from the EUPORIAS project. Drawing on the findings of a user needs survey, online decision labs with decision makers in relevant sectors, and ongoing work with end-users in four EUPORIAS prototypes, the following recomme...

The objective of this task was to test strategies for communicating levels of confidence and uncertainty in seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate predictions with relevant stakeholders. To do this we ran two online Decision Labs: a) an ‘Abridged’ Decision Lab with a general sample of European decision makers in relevant sectors, and b) a ‘Full’ Decisio...

This research aims at contributing to the assessment of the emissions of the tourists from emerging countries, now and in the future. It starts from a double idea often mentioned in the research of these last 10 years: i.e. that tourism currently contributes significantly to the emissions of greenhouse gases (around 5% of worldwide emissions) and t...

In this report we detail the strategies for communicating uncertainty and confidence developed in Task 33.3. Strategy development was informed by both our review of the literature on communicating uncertainty (T33.2) and our survey of user needs (T33.1), which demonstrated both that user’s vary in their ability to utilise statistical and technical...

Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a “fashionable” and “highly controversial scientific topic”. This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on clim...

This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of...

Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a “fashionable” and “highly controversial scientific topic”. This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on clim...

The objectives of this paper are to understand the features of simulated low carbon lifestyles under strong greenhouse gas emissions reduction assumptions (20%, 50%), the nature of trade-offs and the hierarchy of choices operated by households within a limited carbon and financial carbon budget, the acceptability of important changes in consumption...

Développées à partir d’une vision macroéconomique et traitant d’abord de la production, les politiques climatiques ont longtemps négligé la question des modes de vie, qui sont pourtant à la fois leur résultante et l’un de leurs leviers d’action majeurs. Leur réintroduction dans les inventaires d’émissions – à la fois par une meilleure analyse des é...

This report presents a review of the literature concerning approaches to communicating confidence and uncertainty, with the objective of informing best practice in seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. As issues pertaining to the communication of uncertainty transcend disciplinary boundaries this review draws upon research conducted in a range o...

Les stratégies d’adaptation au changement climatique devraient normalement s’appuyer sur la meilleure information climatique disponible. Or le constat scientifique initial est souvent transformé, interprété, mis en forme par le processus de politique publique. Le message original s’en trouve modifié, et la qualité de sa communication initiale peut...

Tourism Facing Carbon Constraints in the French Overseas Territories In the context of the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, tourism towards distant destination, including French overseas territories, appears quite questionable. This paper assesses the emissions, identifies the action variables to reduce them and combines these within scenari...

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international touri...

The paper first describes an inventory for 2005 giving the tourism related CO2 emission caused by global tourism, and presents a 30-year projection and a 45-year simulation. The study found that tourists cause 4.4% of global CO2 emissions. Also these emissions are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.2% per year up to 2035. This increase is pr...

On an individual or corporate basis, the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from tourism transport requires not only initiatives of carbon offsetting (compensation mechanisms), but also to travel less or to travel more efficiently. Be it for personal or professional trips, however, finding and buying less carbon intensive trips requires e...

The aim of this paper is to examine what tourism and leisure would be possible for the French under the constraint of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by a factor 4, through building a backcasting scenario. To this aim, a model of French tourist flows was constructed, split according to distance, modes of transport and a typology of behav...

Tourism is becoming increasingly dependent on air transport. Recent scientific work has pointed out the significant and growing contribution of air transport to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Obligations to reduce GHG emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and post-Kyoto instruments might make transport more expensive or even restricted in the future....

Tourism is becoming increasingly dependent on air transport. Recent scientific work has pointed out the significant and growing contribution of air transport to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Obligations to reduce GHG emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and post-Kyoto instruments might make transport more expensive or even restricted in the future....

This paper explains the evolution of research into tourism and climate change, illustrating how early work concentrated on the impact of climate change on tourism, whereas current work also explores the impact of tourism on climate change. It goes on to elaborate a research agenda on both topics. The need to open up tourism research to other fields...

Many protected areas in the world are facing a growing tourist pressure and some uncertainties on the impacts of associated disturbances. In French Guyana, the Kaw-Roura nature reserve combines rivers, wet savannas and mangroves. The Kaw river hosts some flag species, including one of the last viable populations of Black Caïman (Melanosuchus niger)...

Jean Paul Ceron Centre de recherche interdisciplinaire sur le droit de l'environnement, de l'aménagement et de l'urbanisme (CRIDEAU-Université de Limoges), Limoges, France This paper deals with the prediction of French tourism/leisure mobility demands in 2050, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis is based on a model of household to...

This paper deals with the prediction of French tourism/leisure mobility demands in 2050, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis is based on a model of household tourism/leisure mobility patterns based on four modes of transport. A sensitivity analysis quantifies possible changes in greenhouse gas emissions according to hypotheses rel...

Given the growing dependence of tourism on transport and the contribution of tourism mobility to global warming, this activity might be seriously questioned by mitigation policies. This paper explores prospects for household tourism and leisure mobility and their associated impacts on climate change. Household mobility patterns associating various...

The use of fossil energy is one of the major environmental problems associated with tourism and travel. Consequently, the need to limit fossil energy use has been highlighted as a precondition for achieving sustainable tourism development. However, tourism is also one of the most important sectors of the world economy, and fears have thus been expr...

This paper deals with the potential effects of climate change on tourism in France. It examines the implications of a scenario by Météo-France (doubling the concentration of CO2) with regards to the climatic requirements of tourists, according to the different seasons, regions and natural resources on which tourism is based.

The paper first places the research within the context of international initiatives of developing environmental indicators for the tourism sector: indicator frameworks, data constraints and communication needs, national versus local approaches and indicator development procedures. The question of data availability, collection and processing is ofte...

This paper outlines the historical context in which indicators appeared, and links this to the need for improving information systems. The conclusions are made with particular regard for emerging issues, the most recent of which is that of sustainable development. Owing to the rather low reliability of data and to the difficulty in defining the lim...

Social and environmental stakes or urban tourism This article starts by recalling the trends in urban tourism within the last two decades in France, thereby insisting on the shortcomings of definitions and the difficulties in measuring. It shows how policies fostering tourism lead to a competitive struggle between cities. However towns experience v...