Gerald Shively

Gerald Shively
Purdue University | Purdue · Department of Agricultural Economics

PhD

About

174
Publications
74,289
Reads
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4,153
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2007 - present
Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU)
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
August 1996 - present
Purdue University
Position
  • Professor and Associate Head
Education
August 1991 - May 1996
University of Wisconsin–Madison
Field of study
  • Agricultural and Applied Economics
June 1984 - May 1985
Boston University
Field of study
  • Economics
August 1980 - May 1984
Boston University
Field of study
  • Economics

Publications

Publications (174)
Article
Lack of economic opportunities in their local communities push many individuals to migrate and send remittances to their families. Remittances can potentially influence household spending in sizeable ways, making it an important source of income. This article investigates the impact of remittances on various categories of household expenditure, inc...
Article
We investigate the sources of variability in crop yields and their relative importance in the context of weather index insurance for smallholder farmers in India. Using parcel‐level panel data, multilevel modeling, and Bayesian methods we measure how large a role seasonal variation in weather plays in explaining yield variance. Seasonal variation i...
Article
Full-text available
Current trends in adult obesity threaten global health. Although the implications of changes in diets, lifestyles, and food environments have been examined, the specific role of excess calorie availability (ECA)—understood as calorie availability in excess of human requirements for a healthy life—and the cohort mechanisms that underlie trends in ad...
Article
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The relationship between altitude of residence and child linear growth is studied using data for 630,499 children below age 5 years born between 1992 and 2016, as recorded in 47 countries at elevations ranging from − 377 to 4498 m above sea level. Regressions are used to measure the role of household, community, and environmental factors in explain...
Article
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Background: The public health burden of undernutrition remains heavy and widespread, especially in low-income countries like Nepal. While predictors of undernutrition are well documented, few studies have examined the effects of political will and quality of policy or program implementation on child growth. Methods: Data were collected from two...
Article
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People in fragile environments face shocks that negatively affect their nutrition. Many governments put policy mechanisms in place to promote recovery of households after adverse shocks; however, resilience is difficult to measure because some apparent recovery could be the result of statistical randomness and reversion to trends. This paper demons...
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Food-based transfer programs have the potential to change diets or alter basic crop mixes. This study empirically investigates the associations between participating in food-for-work (FFW) programs and the diversity of food consumption and production. Four waves of panel data from the Tigray Region of Northern Ethiopia, covering the period 2001–201...
Article
This paper investigates labor allocation as a strategy for coping with unanticipated events. We evaluate household responses to unforeseen death and rainfall shocks in Zimbabwe, during a period in which many households were already stressed due to the country’s long-term economic crisis. In this context, shocks compound existing stresses. Different...
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Background Nutritional status has important implications for labor productivity, lifetime earnings, and country-wide economic development. Dietary diversity is an important contributor to nutrition. Objective To identify how patterns of food consumption are related to dietary diversity and to measure the potential for policy interventions to influ...
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We study the relationship between the food environment (FE) and the food purchase patterns, dietary intakes, and nutritional status of individuals in peri-urban Tanzania. In Africa, the prevailing high density of informal vendors creates challenges to characterizing the FE. We present a protocol and tool developed as part of the Diet, Environment,...
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Background Naturally occurring aflatoxins may contribute to poor growth and nutritional statuses in children. Objectives We analyzed the relationship between contemporary and lagged aflatoxin exposure and 1) length-for-age z-score (LAZ); and 2) length, knee-heel length, stunting, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and weight-for-length z-score (WLZ)....
Article
The relationship between elevation of residence and a child's linear growth was studied using data for 8824 children below the age of 5 years born between 2001 and 2016 at elevations ranging from 50 to 3200 m above sea level in Nepal. Multiple regression was used to measure the role of a variety of household and community factors in explaining the...
Article
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We combine data from the 2006 and 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys (UDHS) with rainfall data and two waves of the Ugandan National Household Survey (UNHS) to study patterns in child weight, as measured by weight-for-height z scores (WHZ), among 3492 rural children below age 5 in Uganda. We focus on rainfall as a nutrition driver along agr...
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Aflatoxins are found in diverse foods widely consumed worldwide. This study investigated the association between aflatoxin exposure and (a) consumption of specific foods, (b) dietary diversity (DD), and (c) seasonality. Women enrolled in the AflaCohort Study in Banke, Nepal (n = 1648) were asked how often they ate certain food items in the past 7 d...
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Without enforced standards or reliable third‐party verification, food safety threats such as pesticide residues and aflatoxin contamination are generally unobservable or only partially observable to both buyers and sellers, especially of staple foods in rural maize markets in sub‐Saharan Africa. As a result, sellers have more information about food...
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Background: Exposure to aflatoxin has garnered increased attention as a possible contributor to adverse birth outcomes. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the relation of maternal aflatoxin exposure with adverse birth outcomes such as birth weight, birth length, anthropometric z scores, low birth weight (LBW), small-for-ge...
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This study compares the profitability of organic and conventional vegetable production in Tan Lac, a mountainous area in Northern Vietnam. The study is motivated by three questions: (1) Is organic vegetable production profitable, compared with conventional production? (2) Who among the vegetable farmers in Tan Lac tended to adopt organic production...
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Objectives: Stunting and wasting in early life increase the risk of mortality. While assessed and diagnosed as individual conditions, these two forms of malnutrition often coexist within the same populations and possibly the same individual. The main objective of our analysis was to assess the magnitude of stunting and wasting among Nepali infants...
Article
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Background Childhood malnutrition and growth faltering is a serious concern in Nepal. Studies of child growth typically focus on child and mother characteristics as key factors, largely because Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) collect data at these levels. To control for and measure the importance of higher-level factors this study supplements...
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Does income inequality matter for subjective wellbeing? Using data from 5945 individuals residing in 182 villages in rural areas of 21 developing countries, we test the relative importance of income inequality measured at different levels (country and village) in subjective wellbeing. Country-level inequality might increase subjective wellbeing bec...
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Transportation development accompanies economic development, both as a driver of growth and as an outcome of economy-wide investments made possible by growth. Evidence of the effects of roads and road quality on human well-being is limited. This paper studies the association between district-level transportation infrastructure and district-average...
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We use panel data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) administered among 1200 smallholders in Uganda to evaluate input use and food security impacts of an improved maize storage technology. After two seasons, households who received the technology were 10 percentage points more likely to plant hybrid maize varieties that are more susceptible t...
Preprint
Full-text available
We investigate the sources of variability in crop output and measure their relative importance in the context of weather index insurance for smallholder farmers in South Asia. We use parcel-level panel data, multilevel modeling, and Bayesian methods to isolate and measure how large a role weather plays in explaining yield variance. Variance in weat...
Article
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This article estimates how storage losses from mold, insects and other pests, combined with liquidity constraints, influence a smallholder farm household's decision to store maize on farm after harvest. We analyze panel data from 309 smallholders in Benin covering the 2011 and 2013 harvest seasons. Results suggest that smallholders are driven to se...
Chapter
Today, the 4,000-foot runway in Tumlingtar, in eastern Nepal, is paved. But when I arrived there from Kathmandu in 1985 aboard a Twin Engine Otter, the runway was nothing more than a grass strip. With only 20 passengers onboard the tiny plane it didn’t take us long to disembark and collect our luggage. Among the cargo was what we, in the developed...
Article
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Although malnutrition rates have been on the decline in Uganda over the past two decades, they remain high. Challenges to achieving nutritional improvements result, in part, from high staple foods prices, which raise the cost of the food basket and increase the risk of food and nutrition insecurity, especially for poor households who are net buyers...
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This paper investigates linear growth and weight gain among 11,946 children below the age of 5 y in Nepal and Uganda, testing the hypothesis that child growth is sensitive to precipitation during key periods in a child's early life. The paper also tests the importance of the economic and physical environments in which children reside. Outcomes are...
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This paper studies the connections between child nutrition and food prices in Nepal. Data from a number of sources are combined, including the 2006 and 2011 Nepal Demographic Health Surveys and monthly retail food price data collected over the period 2002 to 2010 from 34 districts of Nepal. A total of 4,038 children are used for the analysis (2,765...
Article
We study transportation infrastructure and food markets in Nepal over the period 2002 to 2010, combining monthly price data from thirty-seven local and regional markets, and seven Indian border markets. We use a series of autoregressive models to study price determination, spatial and temporal price transmission, and price variance. We account for...
Article
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Environmental conditions in early life are known to have impacts on later health outcomes, but causal mechanisms and potential remedies have been difficult to discern. This paper uses the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys of 2006 and 2011, combined with earlier NASA satellite observations of variation in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Inde...
Article
Using longitudinal household survey data from rural China and an identification strategy based on observed rainfall realizations, we are able to test household responses to idiosyncratic and covariate income shocks. We find that negative idiosyncratic income shocks increase migration and elicit household out rental of land. The effect of covariate...
Article
We studied the link between household membership in Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and short-run nutrition outcomes among children aged 5 years and younger. We used 2006 and 2010 survey data from Northern Ethiopia to estimate parameters of an exogenous switching regression. This allowed us to measure the differential impacts of hou...
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This article investigates empirical connections between agriculture and child nutrition in Nepal. We augment the standard approach to explaining child nutrition outcomes by including information about household level agricultural production characteristics, including indicators of agricultural diversity. Data from the 2010/2011 Nepal Living Standar...
Article
This article tests the relationships among formalised property rights, land tenure contracts and productive efficiency in farming. Using four rounds of panel data from 230 rice farms in the Philippines, we measure the effects of land tenure arrangements on farm efficiency using a stochastic production frontier model. We test for the allocative effi...
Article
Unanticipated events can cause considerable economic hardship for poor rural households. Some types of negative shocks, for example weather-related agricultural losses and vector-borne diseases, are expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. In this paper we measure the role of household- and location-specific characteristics...
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Full-text available
Climate change and degradation of ecosystem services functioning may threaten the ability of current agricultural systems to keep up with demand for adequate and inexpensive food and for clean water, waste disposal and other broader ecosystem services. Human health is likely to be affected by changes occurring across multiple geographic and time sc...
Article
Renewable energy is an option for many countries simultaneously seeking to reduce dependence on imported petroleum and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. Forestry can play a role in environmental policies, such as renewable portfolio standards for bioelectricity, renewable fuel standards for biofuels, and fo...
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Policy summary Benefit and cost estimates of the Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) indicate that the program often does not generate high enough returns to cover its costs. This has led to an ongoing debate regarding the effectiveness and sustainability of fertilizer subsidies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this brief we evaluate effectiveness of...
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Using data from 433 firms operating along Uganda’s charcoal and timber supply chains, we investigate patterns of bribe payment and tax collection between supply chain actors and government officials responsible for collecting taxes and fees. We examine the factors associated with the presence and magnitude of bribe and tax payments using a series o...
Thesis
Full-text available
We study the link between Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and short-run nutrition outcomes among children age 5 years and younger. We use 2006 and 2010 survey data from Northern Ethiopia to estimate parameters of an exogenous switching regression. This allows us to measure the differential impacts of household characteristics on wei...
Article
This paper examines how biomass supply and consumption are affected by land use change in Uganda. We find that between 2007 and 2012 there was a 22% reduction in fuelwood sourced from proximate forests, and an 18% increase in fuelwood sourced from fallows and other areas with lower biomass availability and quality. We estimate a series of panel reg...
Article
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In the forest–livelihoods literature, forests are widely perceived to provide both common safety nets to shocks and resources for seasonal gap-filling. We use a large global-comparative dataset to test these responses. We find households rank forest-extraction responses to shocks lower than most common alternatives. For seasonal gap-filling, forest...
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This study uses a multi-case dataset to question current assumptions about the gender differentiation of forest product use. We test some of the commonly held ideas on how men and women access, manage, and use different forest products. Overall, we found significant gender differentiation in the collection of forest products, which seems to support...
Article
Agricultural production is complex and risky. Weather is one of several potential causes of yield variability. We investigate the different sources of variance in crop output and measure their relative importance. We use parcel-level panel data from South Asia and a multilevel modeling approach to isolate the different sources of variance. We then...
Article
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This issue of Agricultural Economics is a special issue containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The contributions present results from a global economic model intercomparison activity undertaken as part of the AgMIP Project (www.agmip.org). The origins...
Article
Previous research suggests that forest-dependent households tend to be poorer than other groups, and that extreme reliance on forest resources might constitute a poverty trap. We provide an example in which a non-timber forest product – charcoal – appears to be providing a pathway out of poverty for some rural households in Uganda. Data come from h...
Article
This article uses the theory of repeated transaction to model exchange in rural grain markets. We examine the theoretical and empirical drivers of repeated transaction, as well as potential problems that may arise as a result of its widespread use. We develop a structural repeated game to represent buyer-seller relations in a developing country gra...
Article
This article reviews and critically assesses evidence on input subsidy programs implemented in selected countries over the past decade in Africa. We believe that input subsidies should be considered wicked problems because of the indeterminacy and difficulty surrounding how they are evaluated. Main findings from the current body of literature are t...
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Full-text available
Little is known about the contribution of migrant logging to rural livelihoods in East Africa. In this paper, we analyze logging by circular migrants in land constrained and population dense southwestern Uganda. Drawing on a sample of 180 households, including both migrant and non-migrant households, we describe the demographic and socioeconomic ch...
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Forests are an important source of environmental services and livelihoods in Africa, thus it is important to determine potential drivers of forest loss. Over recent decades, forest cover has been declining steadily in Malawi. This paper attempts to evaluate the influence of agricultural input subsidies on forest conversion in Malawi. A two-stage re...
Article
Forests are an important source of environmental services and livelihoods in Africa, thus it is important to determine potential drivers of forest loss. Over recent decades, forest cover has been declining steadily in Malawi. This paper attempts to evaluate the influence of agricultural input subsidies on forest conversion in Malawi. A two-stage re...
Article
Full-text available
Naranjilla (Solanum Quitoense) is a perennial fruit shrub with promising economic potential. Unfortunately, infections of fusarium (fusarium oxysporum) have shortened its productive life in many locations. A grafted cultivar, INIAP Quitoense, has been developed to offer resistance to some soil-borne diseases. This paper uses a farm-level optimizati...
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We investigate household outcomes arising from economic shocks in rural Uganda, focusing on patterns of income diversification and forest use, and the role of assets in shaping ex post response to shocks. Income-poor households and those with below-average landholdings are observed to have more diversified income portfolios than their cohorts. Hous...
Article
We measure the impacts of Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program on the cropland allocation decisions of farmers in Kasungu and Machinga districts in central and southern Malawi. Using a two-step regression strategy to control for endogenous selection into the program, we find positive correlations between participation in the program and the amount o...
Article
Full-text available
Unanticipated events can cause considerable economic hardship for poor rural households. Some types of negative shocks, for example weather-related agricultural losses and vector-borne diseases, are expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. This paper measures the role of household- and location-specific characteristics in co...
Article
Full-text available
Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) is a technique for evaluating a project or investment by comparing the economic benefits of an activity with the economic costs of the activity. Typically, we use the symbol B to represent our measure of benefits and the symbol C to represent our measure of costs. Benefit-cost analysis has several objectives. First, BCA...
Article
We examine the extent to which economic development reduces both a country's disaster risk and its social vulnerability to climate-related disasters. Global climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and various types of storms. Moreover, the effects of these extreme weath...