Gerald Schneider

Gerald Schneider
Universität Konstanz | Uni-Konstanz · Department of Politics and Public Administration

Dr. phil I.

About

215
Publications
46,307
Reads
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3,779
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Introduction
Gerald Schneider, born in 1962 in Zürich, is Professor of International Politics and Executive Editor of “European Union Politics”. His main areas of research are European Union decision making, the causes and consequences of armed violence, the international political economy of financial markets, bargaining and conflict management.
Additional affiliations
January 2005 - December 2012
Peace Research Institute Oslo
Position
  • Affiliate
October 1996 - August 1997
October 1995 - present
Universität Konstanz

Publications

Publications (215)
Article
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Asylum policy-making in advanced democracies frequently faces the accusation that prejudice and stereotyping lead to erroneous decisions. The model of taste-based discrimination suggests that the biases of decision-makers or their peers against certain groups of applicants influence the evaluation of an asylum claim. Conversely, the concept of stat...
Article
One of the core disputes in the literature on economic statecraft addresses the conditions under which multilateral sanctions are more successful than unilateral ones. Our game-theoretic model implies that extant assessments do not sufficiently differentiate between the varying abilities of multilateral and unilateral senders in credibly threatenin...
Preprint
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The ways in which countries have reacted to financial crises varies considerably. While income inequality has grown in many EU member states after the Great Recession, some countries such as the United States have experienced a significant increase in wealth inequality. A number of countries, by contrast, was able to keep these inequities at bay. W...
Preprint
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According to the conventional wisdom, political polarization has been growing in the past few decades, and increasing inequality and financial crises have fuelled this trend. Making use of new measures and differentiating between parliamentary and electoral polarization across the left-right cleavage, this article offers a comparative evaluation of...
Article
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The European Union, the United Nations, and the United States frequently use economic sanctions. This article introduces the EUSANCT Dataset—which amends, merges, and updates some of the most widely used sanctions databases—to trace the evolution of sanctions after the Cold War. The dataset contains case-level and dyadic information on 326 threaten...
Article
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The handling of the 2008 financial crisis has reinforced the conviction that the European Union (EU) is undemocratic and that member states are forced to delegate overwhelming power to a supranational technocracy. However, European countries have engaged with this alleged power drift differently, with only a few member states demanding more parliam...
Article
The quantitative evidence on whether extractive industries generate economic wealth at the local level is far from conclusive. In line with recent studies highlighting the moderating role of institutions and governance structures in the resource–development nexus, we argue that the effect of mining on local economic well-being is largely driven by...
Article
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Individual asylum seekers fail to obtain refugee status at considerably different rates cross- and sub-nationally. However, we do not know whether asylum seekers also face similar discriminatory potential when they appeal a negative decision and, if their appeal fails, when the authorities decide about their deportation. To fill this research gap,...
Article
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Several studies suggest that the extractive industry has negative consequences for gender equality despite the often positive growth impact of natural resources. We reexamine this claim at the sub-state level in sub-Saharan Africa and argue that we need to differentiate between ownership arrangements in the extractive industry. To test our argument...
Article
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This article presents ViEWS-a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all thr...
Chapter
„What an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man that age was which came to an end in August 1914!“ So elegisch bewertete vor hundert Jahren John Maynard Keynes (1919: 9) die Wohltaten der Globalisierung, welche seiner Meinung nach die Zeit vor dem 1. Weltkrieg geprägt hatten. Für den privilegierten Teil seiner Zeitgenossen sei es in...
Chapter
Finanzmarktkrisen lassen sich drei Typen zuordnen: Banken-, Währungs- und Staatsschuldenkrisen. Alle Spielarten bergen das Risiko, dass andere Staaten sich anstecken und dass die Realwirtschaft in Mitleidenschaft gezogen wird. Als Paradox gilt, dass es trotz der Wachstumsverluste immer wieder zu Finanzmarktkrisen kommt. Die Literatur macht dafür et...
Chapter
Wirtschaftskriege beruhen auf Zwangsmaßnahmen, mit denen Staaten ihre Gegner ökonomisch schwächen oder für unilaterale Handlungen bestrafen wollen. Besonders häufig verhängen die am Konflikt beteiligten Parteien Sanktionen. Diese haben zum Ziel, dass der Kontrahent auf einen geplanten Schritt verzichtet oder eine bestimmte Handlung zurücknimmt. Die...
Article
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This article examines to what extent different formal conceptualizations of ideological conflict can help to explain the capacity for and speed of policy change in the European Union. We compare the core and the winset, two competing concepts based on the spatial theory of voting. The empirical analysis shows that the latter concept bears a strong...
Article
Empirical tests of the “resource curse” thesis have provided inconclusive evidence for the claim that natural resource abundance increases the risk of social conflict. The present article argues, based on a novel political economy framework and a new data set, that it is important to analyze how states regulate the access to their natural resources...
Chapter
Dieses Kapitel gibt einen Überblick über die Verwendung quantitativer Methoden in den Internationalen Beziehungen. Nach einer kurzen Diskussion der verschiedenen Probleme, durch die eine quantitative Untersuchung scheitern kann, beschreiben wir im zweiten Teil des Kapitels die Analyse von experimentellen sowie Beobachtungsdaten. Im dritten Teil die...
Article
Decentralized asylum policy discriminates: A comparision of asylum recognition rates in the federal states of Germany Abstract: This article examines whether the asylum recognition rates differ in the German federal states, despite the uniform provisions of the asylum law and jurisdiction and the clear authority attributed to a federal agency. We b...
Article
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The literature on conflict management offers two explanations of why the effectiveness of third parties to settle militarized disputes differs. The structural research tradition focuses on conflict characteristics, while the individualist approaches highlight the background, skills and power of a mediator, as well as the mediation strategy. This ar...
Article
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This article examines whether the asylum recognition rates differ in the German federal states, despite the uniform provisions of the asylum law and jurisdiction and the clear authority attributed to a federal agency. We build on the principle-agent theory of federalism and argue that the decision-makers in the regional offices of the Federal Offic...
Chapter
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One key premise of the power-sharing literature is that divided societies can escape the ills of diversity ex ante through inclusive policy making. I argue that the short-term considerations of politicians who want to stay in power prevents these fractionalized and polarized states from the far-sighted adoption of adequate conflict management strat...
Article
The 2008 global financial crisis came with fears—and, for some, hopes—that a new wave of public mobilization would emerge in industrialized countries. Especially throughout the European Union (EU), the epicenter of the crisis, large protests were expected. Yet, the energy with which social groups mobilized against the proposed austerity measures qu...
Conference Paper
This article assesses arms export practices of the 20 largest supplier states of major conventional weapons (MCWs) between 1992 and 2013. Our theoretical approach claims that cost-benefit calculations are important for determining arms export decisions, as governments aim to stay in power. Normative considerations may play a role for democratically...
Chapter
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This article discusses the theoretical and empirical literature on the reciprocal economy- war nexus. Most contributions examine the liberal hope that growing economic bonds between or within nations reduce the risk of violent conflict, while an increasing number of studies also examines the destructive and redistributive effect of war, terrorism a...
Article
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Policy makers and academics often contend that organizational anarchy permits soldiers to perpetrate sexual violence. A recent United Nations report supports this thesis especially with regard to the massive sexual abuse in the Congolese civil war. We challenge the anarchy argument and maintain, based on a principal-agent framework, that opportunis...
Article
An important literature examines the attempts by the international community in inducing or coercing conflict parties in civil wars to refrain from committing atrocities against the civilian population. We examine in this article whether a non-governmental actor, the distinctively neutral and independent International Committee of the Red Cross, wh...
Article
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Die moderne Theorie der rationalen Abschreckung, wie sie unter anderem Thomas Schelling entwickelte, gilt als Grundlage der modernen Verteidigungspolitik. Kritiker dieses Ansatzes und seiner spieltheoretischen Fundamente hinterfragen zentrale Annahmen der Modelle und zweifeln die Evidenz an, welche die theoretischen Implikationen stützen. In diesem...
Article
The theory of rational deterrence, as Thomas Schelling among others developed it, is the central backbone of modern security policy making. Critics of this approach and its game-theoretic foundations question central assumptions of the models and contest the evidence gathered in support of them. We examine in this article how the decisional context...
Article
Many examinations of the dimensions of conflict in the EU Council of Ministers focus on the ideological roots of contestation in the European Union. In this article, we examine for the voting records of the Council in general and five of its subunits (Agriculture, Fisheries, Financial Affairs, Environment, Economic Affairs) the extent to which stru...
Chapter
Full-text available
Dieses Kapitel gibt einen Überblick über die Verwendung quantitativer Methoden in den Internationalen Beziehungen. Nach einer kurzen Diskussion der verschiedenen Probleme, durch die eine quantitative Untersuchung scheitern kann, beschreiben wir im zweiten Teil des Kapitels die Analyse von experimentellen sowie Beobachtungsdaten. Im dritten Teil die...
Article
Full-text available
An abundance of large data sets and improved estimation methods have enabled conflict researchers to estimate the risk of war or terrorist incidents quite precisely. However, as in the case of the prediction of particularly violent earthquakes, forecasting extremely bloody events in continuing conflicts has been difficult until now. This article re...
Book
Globalization and Armed Conflict addresses one of the most important and controversial issues of our time: Does global economic integration foster or suppress violent disputes within and between states? Here, cutting-edge research by leading figures in international relations shows that expanding commercial ties between states pacifies some, but no...
Article
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Conflict managers around the world cling to the hope that power-sharing decreases the risk of civil war in post-conflict societies. Distinguishing between territorial and governmental conflicts, we analyse the origin and effectiveness of power-sharing institutions (PSI) and power-sharing arrangements (PSA). Our examination reveals that power-sharin...
Article
Aviation is a prime example of a policy area where the clash over supranational regulatory responsibilities had pronounced economic repercussions. In this article, we examine the economic effects of the European Commission's struggle to obtain competences in international air transport. Stock market reactions to key events in the political conflict...
Article
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This article presents the Konstanz One-Sided Violence Event Dataset (KOSVED) which allows researchers to study the dynamics of civilian abuse in 17 civil wars. The dataset provides, based on a multitude of sources, detailed information on the number of civilians killed or harmed by government or rebel troops. Where information is available, KOSVED...
Article
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Conflict managers around the world cling to the hope that power-sharing decreases the risk of civil war in post-conflict societies. Distinguishing between territorial and governmental conflicts, we identify the lack of inclusion of potential rebels as a major source of the initial conflict. However, the analysis reveals that the war outcome rather...
Article
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The security externalities of globalization and capitalism continue to play an influential role in peace research. Typical contributions to these interrelated areas of scientific inquiry address the hope that the external openness (commercial liberalism) and the internal freedom of an economy (capitalist peace) pacify interstate as well as intrasta...
Article
One of the main problems in the analysis of the resource-conflict nexus is the heterogeneity of the ownership structures and the extraction sites profitability for the same natural resources even within the same state. We contend that the reliance on national-level resource income data biases the extent of income redistribution within a society and...
Article
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Dank größerer Datenfülle und verbesserter Schätzverfahren ist es für die Konflikt-forschung mittlerweile möglich, das Risiko von Kriegen oder terroristischen Er-eignissen recht präzise zu schätzen. Doch wie bei der Prognose von besonders hef-tigen Erdbeben ist die Vorhersage von extrem blutigen Ereignissen in andauernden Konflikten bisher schwer ge...
Conference Paper
The handling of the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union (EU) has raised fears that decision making in supranational organization and its member states has become less democratic and that European Central Bank now calls the shots in Europe. This article confronts this pessimistic speculation with systematic evidence of the institutional cons...
Article
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Article
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The export of arms belongs to the most contested issues in democracies. In this article, we examine the economic repercussions of the recent easing of the Japanese arms exports restrictions. We develop a rational expectations argument to understand why some political events increase the income of the arms manufacturers, while other ones reduce it o...
Book
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Seit der Einführung von Irving Janis‚ (1971, 1972) sozialpsychologischem Konzept des Gruppendenkens („Groupthink“ im Original und im Folgenden) richtete sich wiederholt das politikwissenschaftliche Forschungsinteresse auf Gruppenentscheidungsprozesse. Dies gilt besonders für die Internationalen Beziehungen, in denen Groupthink einer der Prozesse is...
Article
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Doing justice to the often-ridiculed medieval catechism, this article identifies individual-level barriers to an efficient publication strategy in political science and beyond. I argue that becoming a successful and innovative academic writer needs a clear understanding of the (unholy) trinity between authors, reviewers and editors. Based on the an...
Article
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Eines der Grundmerkmale wissenschaftlichen Arbeitens besteht darin, Informationen so zu verdichten, dass eine Struktur erkennbar ist. Ohne Theorien über den Prozess, in dem die Daten entstanden sind, bleibt jeder Forscher blind. Doch mit Theorien allein ist es in den angewandten Wissenschaften nicht getan. Ob die Erklärung zu den Daten passt, lässt...
Article
Past studies regarding the success of conflict mediation efforts in civil wars have demonstrated that mediation is a useful conflict mediation mechanism because it facilitates the conclusion of peace agreements. However, even though mediation takes place and peace agreements are signed, the conditions for a durable peace do not always take hold. Th...
Article
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The forecasting literature disagrees over the accuracy of predictions made by individual experts ("oracles) versus a collective of individuals who are not as well informed ("crowd"). We discuss this controversy in light of competing interpretations of the Condorcet Jury Theorem and evaluate these two competing views in a quantitative analysis of th...
Article
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Conflict researchers are divided on what explains the massive victimisation and murdering of civilians and unarmed combatants, but largely agree that many of these acts are intentional and that the main perpetrators rely on them for economic or political gain. The terror strategies against civilians, which the scholarly literature has recently dubb...
Article
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This article re-examines recent studies that link different forms of social diversity—ethnic polarization and fractionalization—to underdevelopment and an increased risk of civil war. We review theoretical arguments in favor of a connection between diversity and these social outcomes and discuss the inter-linkage between economic growth and interna...
Article
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Der Artikel untersucht, welche Faktoren den Berufserfolg von Karrierediplomaten im deutschen Auswärtigen Dienst bestimmen. Ausgehend vom Sozialisations- und Rational-Choice-Ansatz konstruieren wir zwei Modelle, deren Erklärungskraft wir anschließend anhand von Daten aus vier Berufseinstiegskohorten (Attaché-Lehrgänge 1970–1973) evaluieren. Die stat...
Article
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This special issue on the capitalist peace explores whether and how new findings alter the liberal research agenda. To this end, we have organized a debate that unites leading capitalist peace scholars as well as some prominent sceptics. In this introduction, we discuss the main research traditions and assess their relative merits before moving on...
Article
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The results of deliberations in multilateral fora are often considered ineffective+ Decision making in the European Union (EU) and in particular its key intergovernmental body, the European Council, poses no exception. Especially in the domain of EU foreign and security affairs, the unanimity requirement governing this institution allegedly allows...
Article
Various international studies are conducted to predict future events as part of a social obligation and intellectual challenge that no scientific discipline can escape. Users of such forecasts in offices around the world are convinced that anticipating the future is possible. The twin pitfalls of over-predicting and under-predicting change form the...
Chapter
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Article
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The articles by Kees van Kersbergen and Daniele Caramani constitute an impressive joint plea in favour of descriptive analyses within comparative politics. They also warn, less convincingly, against an alleged obsession of the discipline with variation that, according to them, does not do justice to the similarity of many cases. This response demon...
Chapter
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The present MEG study explored whether and how fair and unfair offers made by a fictitious teammate modulate cortical responses to decision-related cues. Electromagnetic activity analyzed in the source space (minimum norm estimate) disclosed larger (bilateral) frontotemporal activity 170 - 250 ms after cue-onset for fair compared to unfair offers,...
Chapter
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Laut den statistischen Daten von BP beträgt der Prozentsatz der im Mittleren Osten nachgewiesenen Menge Öl an der weltweit nachgewiesenen Menge im Jahr 2007 61%. Damit ist dieser Anteil im Vergleich zum Jahr 1987 nahezu unverändert. Der europäische und eurasische Anteil stellt mit 11,6% den zweitgrüßten Anteil der weltweiten Reserven. Hier ist der...
Article
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Zusammenfassung: der Artikel untersucht, welche Faktoren den berufserfolg von Karriere-diplomaten im deutschen Auswärtigen dienst bestimmen. Ausgehend vom Sozialisations-und Rational-Choice-Ansatz konstruieren wir zwei Modelle, deren Erklärungskraft wir anschließend anhand von daten aus vier berufseinstiegskohorten (Attaché-lehrgänge 1970–1973) eva...
Chapter
Conflict researchers are divided on what explains the massive victimisation and murdering of civilians and unarmed combatants, but largely agree that many of these acts are intentional and that the main perpetrators rely on them for economic or political gain. The terror strategies against civilians, which the scholarly literature has recently dubb...
Article
In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an import...
Article
Der enorme Anstieg grenzüberschreitender Kapitalströme ist ein zentrales Kennzeichen der Globalisierung (Beisheim/Walter 1997). Die bloßen Zahlen sind beeindruckend (Abbildung 3.1). Das Volumen der pro Jahr auf den globalisierten Finanzmärkten gehandelten Anleihen und Aktien stieg von etwas mehr als knapp 20 Billionen Dollar im Jahr 1996 auf mehr a...
Article
Der in diesem Buch unternommene Versuch, die Auswirkungen internationaler Ereignisse auf Finanzmärkte analytisch und empirisch zu durchdringen, erfordert nicht nur theoretische Innovation. Die Forschungsfrage, der wir nachgehen, setzt auch Vertrautheit mit den ökonometrischen Verfahren voraus, die für die Analyse von Finanzmärkten geeignet sind. Da...
Article
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Identity-oriented and economics-based explanations of civil war have been advanced separately of each other. Recent work in formal theory shows against this backdrop how class tensions within an ethnicity affect the risk of an escalation between competing ethnic groups. This article uses this analytical framework to explore how economic factors con...