Georgios Bertsatos- PhD
- Research Fellow at Centre for Planning and Economic Research
Georgios Bertsatos
- PhD
- Research Fellow at Centre for Planning and Economic Research
About
39
Publications
10,478
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96
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Introduction
Research Fellow at the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE). PhD at the Department of Economics of Athens University of Economics and Business. PhD thesis: "Essays on Banking Valuation" and postdoc at the same Department: "Bank Market Valuation, Mis-valuation and Performance". Member of the research team of GOLCER, Lancaster University.
Research interests: Applied Econometrics in Economics, Finance and Banking, Sports Finance and fundamental valuation of sports clubs.
Current institution
Additional affiliations
June 2020 - June 2022
Position
- Post-Doctoral Researcher
Description
- Bank Market Valuation, Mis-valuation, and Performance
Education
November 2016 - February 2020
September 2014 - July 2016
September 2012 - January 2014
Publications
Publications (39)
(ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗ ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑΣ ΚΕΠΕ 4/2024). Η αγωνιστική περίοδος 2023/24 ήταν εξαιρετική για την Ελλάδα, καθώς οι αθλητικές ομάδες της χώρας διακρίθηκαν σε πανευρωπαϊκό επίπεδο. Καταρχάς, παρουσιάζοντας χρονικά τα γεγονότα, η ομάδα καλαθοσφαίρισης του Παναθηναϊκού «σήκωσε» – στο φετινό Final 4 της Euroleague που διεξήχθη στο Βερολίνο – το έβδομο ευρωπαϊκ...
Given the theory of efficient unemployment and using Eurostat data, it turns out that the average annual unemployment in Greece over the last -at least- 15 years has been consistently below 10% when job vacancies are considered. Given that based on cumulative data for the period 2010-2022 job vacancies are estimated to be between 98 thousand and 12...
(Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας 1/2025, ΚΕΠΕ). Η παρούσα Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας του ΚΕΠΕ αναπτύσσεται γύρω από το θέμα του αναβαλλόμενου φόρου των ελληνικών τραπεζών, σε συνδυασμό με την επιτάχυνση της απόσβεσής του και με την πληρωμή μερισμάτων. Η πηγή των δεδομένων είναι η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα (ΕΚΤ) και η Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος (ΤτΕ), με το κοινό δείγμα...
We investigate the effects of the real exchange rate on the trade balance between the USA and China by using a median threshold in nonlinear modelling, controlling for several factors. Nonlinear ARDL models are estimated with zero threshold, as well as with median threshold and this is the first time in the USA-China literature of balance of trade....
(Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας 11/2024, ΚΕΠΕ). Ύστερα από την ανάλυση των χρηματοοικονομικών επιδόσεων των ελληνικών ποδοσφαιρικών ομάδων (βλ. Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας 4/2024, ΚΕΠΕ), αυτή τη φορά το ερευνητικό ενδιαφέρον στρέφεται στην καλαθοσφαίριση και τις ελληνικές ΚΑΕ.
Με δεδομένη τη μακρά κυριαρχία των δύο «αιωνίων» έναντι των υπόλοιπων ομάδων στο ελλην...
(Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας 4/2025, ΚΕΠΕ). Ύστερα από δύο Αναλύσεις για τα χρηματοοικονομικά μεγέθη και τις οικονομικές επιδόσεις των ελληνικών ομάδων ποδοσφαίρου και καλαθοσφαίρισης της 1ης εθνικής κατηγορίας (βλ. Αναλύσεις Επικαιρότητας, 4/2024 & 11/2024, ΚΕΠΕ), η τρέχουσα Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας του ΚΕΠΕ εστιάζει στην αποτίμηση της θεμελιώδους αξίας τω...
We examine the relationship between small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs’) productivity and the living standards of low‐income groups in the EU27. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that tries to shed light on the link between SMEs’ productivity and poverty in a group of developed economies. Our results from panel estimators sugge...
Differentiated taxation" effectively enhances general welfare, in the terms of both people's quality of life and net national income. The impacts of differentiated "sin taxes" on tobacco, alcoholic beverages, sugar, soft drinks, and fast food are of great interest, particularly in terms of improving both human well-being and government revenues. On...
(ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΕΣ ΕΞΕΛΙΞΕΙΣ). Η Ελλάδα, ύστερα από μια παρατεταμένη περίοδο οικονομικής κρίσης που άφησε έντονο το αποτύπωμά της στους καταναλωτές και τις επιχειρήσεις στη χώρα, παρουσιάζει αξιοσημείωτη ανάκαμψη τα τελευταία χρόνια. Ειδικότερα, από το 2018 και έπειτα, με εξαίρεση το 2020 με την έναρξη της COVID-19, η ελληνική οικονομία επιτυγχάνει ρυθμο...
(GREEK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK). Greece, following a prolonged period of economic crisis that left a significant impact on both consumers and businesses in the country, has demonstrated remarkable recovery in recent years. Notably, since 2018, (except for the year 2020, which was hit by COVID-19) the Greek economy has achieved growth rates of real GDP exc...
(ΑΝΑΛΥΣΕΙΣ ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑΣ) Η «διαφοροποιημένη» φορολογία βελτιώνει αποτελεσματικά την κοινωνική ευημερία τόσο ως προς την ποιότητα ζωής των ανθρώπων όσο και ως προς το καθαρό εθνικό εισόδημα. Iδιαίτερο ενδιαφέρον
παρουσιάζουν οι επιπτώσεις των (διαφοροποιημένων) «φόρων αμαρτίας» στον καπνό, τα αλκοολούχα ποτά, τη ζάχαρη, τα αναψυκτικά και το πρόχειρ...
It is often argued that immigration flows depend positively upon the GDP (a migratorypull factor) and negatively upon the exchange rate depreciations (a migratory push factor)in the destination country. However, we show that both effects depend crucially on thecorruption level, and, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the impa...
The successive crises of recent years, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have significantly strained European economies. Policy measures to improve productivity are considered as vital to promote sustainable development, enhance competitiveness and upgrade the standards of living and doing business. Apart f...
To fight inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) announced 10 successive interest rate hikes, starting on 27 July 2022, igniting an unprecedented widening of interest rate spreads in the euro area (ΕΑ). Greek banks, however, recorded among the highest interest rate spreads, far exceeding ΕΑ median and weighted average. Indeed, we document a strong a...
(Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας 8/2024, ΚΕΠΕ). Σύμφωνα με τα τριμηνιαία δεδομένα της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ (χωρίς εποχική διόρθωση, ηλικίες 15-74 ετών) από την Έρευνα Εργατικού Δυναμικού, η μέση ετήσια ανεργία το 2 ο τρίμηνο του 2024, σε κυλιόμενη βάση τεσσάρων τριμήνων, ήταν 10,77%, ενώ το 2023 ήταν 11,07%. Το 11,07% αποτελούσε την καλύτερη επίδοση ύστερα από το 2009, ότ...
(Ανάλυση Επικαιρότητας 1/2024, ΚΕΠΕ). Ύστερα από δέκα πρωτόγνωρες αλλεπάλληλες αυξήσεις επιτοκίων εκ μέρους της Ευρωπαϊκής Κεντρικής Τραπέζης (ΕΚΤ), που άρχισαν στις 27 Ιουλίου 2022 και ήταν συνολικού μεγέθους 450 μονάδων βάσης, παρατηρείται μία πρωτοφανής διεύρυνση του επιτοκιακού περιθωρίου (interest rate spread) στην ευρωζώνη. Οι ελληνικές τράπε...
The existing literature in the US-Mexico trade balance reports mixed evidence on the effects of exchange rate shocks. In this paper we propose a new approach of studying exchange rate effects that allows for asymmetries in the balance of trade. Our results show that using either linear modelling or non-linear modelling and zero threshold, there is...
We propose a bounds testing procedure (BTP) with a battery of tests for the existence of a non-degenerate co-integrating relationship in levels, for long panels. It is a natural extension to panel data of the respective approach in time series by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) and extended by Bertsatos, Sakellaris, and Tsionas (2022). Simulations...
Given the high historical records in employment and job vacancies, as well as the low historical records in unemployment rates in 2022, much has been said about the labor markets in Europe recently. In this paper, we investigate the condition of labor markets in European countries; examining whether European economies are at (near) full employment...
The Greek economy has fully recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the initial inflationary pressures, that were caused by a multitude of internal and external factors, have subsided. Therefore, Greece is currently geared up, not only for normal growth, but possibly for a takeoff, under the condition that penned up investmen...
We propose a bounds testing procedure (BTP) with a battery of tests for the existence of a non-degenerate co-integrating relationship in levels, for long panels. It is a natural extension to panel data of the respective approach in time series by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) and extended by Bertsatos, Sakellaris and Tsionas (2022). Simulations su...
(CURRENT ISSUES BULLETIN 4/2023, KEPE). The Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) recently launched its disinvestment plan, as on 9/10/2023 it announced the completion of the sale of its entire stake in Eurobank. Specifically, Eurobank purchased HFSF’s shares at €1.80 per share, which implies a 27.3% premium compared to the closing price of Euro...
(ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΕΣ ΕΞΕΛΙΞΕΙΣ, ΤΕΥΧΟΣ 51, ΙΟΥΝΙΟΣ 2023).
Τι σχέση μπορεί να έχει η επιτοκιακή πολιτική, στα πλαίσια ενός τραπεζικού συστήματος με τον βαθμό συγκέντρωσης της εν λόγω αγοράς, και ποια η σύνδεση με τις εξελίξεις στο διεθνές περιβάλλον και τις αυξήσεις επιτοκίων από τις κεντρικές τράπεζες; Επιχειρούμε να απαντήσουμε αυτό το ερώτημα επικεντρών...
(GREEK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ISSUE 51, JUNE 2023). What is the relationship between interest rate policy of banks and market concentration of the banking system, and what is the interconnection with international developments and interest rate hikes by central banks? We answer this question by focusing on the Greek banking industry. Following the key i...
We provide novel evidence that price-to-book (PB) ratios of systemically important banks were significantly bolstered by public sector corruption before the global financial crisis: in high corruption countries they enjoyed on average 0.58 higher PB than warranted by characteristics and macroeconomic conditions. Such a corruption-related subsidy wa...
This Online Appendix provides supplementary description of data and variables (Sections A and B), details on the existence of a long-run relationship (Section C), evidence of results stability across specifications (Section D), and controls of endogeneity issues (Section E). In particular, Section A presents the names of systemically important bank...
We estimate the asking price for putting Chelsea up for sale taking into account the fundamental value of the club's brand name and Roman Abramovich's declaration not to ask for any loans to be repaid.
We replicate the Pesaran et al. (J Appl Economet 16(1):289–326, 2001) bounds testing procedure (BTP) and extend it with 6 new cases, 4 of which involve a quadratic trend. We provide critical values for the BTP of the lagged regressors in levels under the framework of unrestricted error-correction models (UECMs) to account for degenerate cases of co...
We propose a valuation model for sports clubs in the spirit of discounted cash flow models and draw policy implications for the optimal financial planning of a sports club. We argue that a sports club is a “quasi firm” that aims to balanced budgets, achieves an efficient allocation of its financial resources and maximizes revenues. We show under th...
In this paper we examine the tourism demand function in Turkey in order to formulate policy suggestions that may help private agents and public authorities in designing their appropriate actions. To this purpose, we include asymmetries in our analysis and examine the role of human capital, as well as, the role of information, communication and tech...
We examine gender wage gap (GWG) in Greece for 2013, by using a survey data set. Our findings show first, that the unadjusted GWG is 15.3%, while European Commission reports a value of 15%. Secondly, we derive the ‘adjusted’ GWG, using the Oaxaca and Ransom (OR) and the Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (JMP) methods to be ranging from 10% to 13.6%. Thirdly,...
The objective of this paper is to compare the average annual and total cost of obtaining a university degree in three different universities: an Open and Distance Learning university serving lifelong learning purposes and two conventional universities in Greece. Our findings show substantial differences in average annual costs (per student) among t...
We examine the impact of the financial crisis on the stock market valuation of large and systemic U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs). Using the Bertsatos and Sakellaris (2016) model of fundamental valuation of bank equity, we provide evidence that the financial crisis has not altered investors' attitudes towards bank characteristics. In particular,...
We present a model of price–to–book (PB) valuation for banks that establishes a dynamic relationship between the PB valuation of equity and the cost of equity, expected growth of net income, and modified dividend payout ratio.
We examine the stock market valuation of large and systemic U.S. bank holding companies over a decade encompassing the financial crisis. We establish a dynamic relationship between the price – to – book (PB) ratio of equity and the cost of equity, expected growth of net income and dividend payout ratio. We find large heterogeneity in the degree to...
We examine the stock market valuation of large and systemic U.S. banks over the period 2003Q4-2014Q1. These are the banks included in a series of supervisory capital review and stress tests conducted annually since 2009 by the Federal Reserve. We extend Gordon’s growth model of stock valuation, allowing both dividend and cost of equity to be variab...
