
George P RichardsonUniversity at Albany, State University of New York | UAlbany · Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
George P Richardson
PhD, Sloan School of Mgmt, MIT
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81
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January 1998 - December 2010
September 1984 - August 1987
Publications
Publications (81)
This paper describes Group Model Building (GMB) as an effective tool to bring together teams of researchers from different disciplines in theory‐building efforts. We propose that the simulation models, as well as other artefacts used during the modelling process, work as boundary objects useful to facilitate conversations among researchers of diffe...
A recurring topic in the annual System Dynamics Society Presidential Address is the need to promote high-quality system dynamics practice in a way that ensures sustainability and growth of the field. Formal training programs and interaction with colleagues at annual conferences play a critical role in accomplishing these goals but are limited. Most...
This research explores opinions about best practices in system dynamics modeling elicited from a distinguished group of experts in the field. We address three questions: What do practitioners believe is the best way to undertake system dynamics modeling? What specific core activities are essential for exemplary action during the different stages of...
Working with groups unfamiliar with system dynamics, modelers need a quick way to introduce the iconography of the approach and some of its framing assumptions. In the early exploratory days of group model building interventions at the University at Albany, we settled on the use of sequences of tiny models for this purpose, which we call "concept"...
Group model building (GMB) is a participatory method for involving stakeholders in the process of developing system dynamics models. GMB has historically consisted of undocumented structured small-group exercises. This paper describes an effort to document GMB scripts called Scriptapedia, and how documented GMB scripts can be used to design more ef...
This paper reports on the development and structure of a framework – ScriptsMap – intended to facilitate the design of mixed method policy-making workshops. The ScriptsMap framework aims to provide a means of articulating and combining activities (which a script specifies) from two or more methods so that a facilitator or group facilitation team ca...
Jay W. Forrester's original statement of the foundations of system dynamics emphasized four ‘threads’: computing technology, computer simulation, strategic decision making, and the role of feedback in complex systems. Subsequent work has expanded on these to expose the significance in the system dynamics approach of dynamic thinking, stock-and-flow...
Public policies often fail to achieve their intended result because of the complexity of both the environment and the policy-making process. In this article, we review the benefits of using small system dynamics models to address public policy questions. First we discuss the main difficulties inherent in the public policy-making process. Then, we d...
This note intends to contribute to the practice of group model building by presenting group model-building scripts that can (1) create a preliminary problem boundary using less than one hour of group time, (2) convene discussions with the group that explicitly link dynamic structure with system behaviour, and (3) allow participants to “zoom” betwee...
The use of systems modeling and simulation contributes an endogenous dynamic perspective to group negotiations and decision
making. In the field of system dynamics, group (participatory) model building has a rich history and growing literature. This
chapter provides an introduction. It discusses the roles required to handle the intricacies of facil...
Modelers facilitating group model building (GMB) sessions often draw on a set of sophisticated pieces of small group processes called "scripts" (Andersen & Richardson, 1997; Vennix, 1996). Andersen and Richardson (1997) have proposed that documenting the scripts that modelers use will help advance the field and practice of GMB by making the process...
Cigarette smoking presented the most significant public health challenge in the United States in the 20th Century and remains the single most preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in this country. A number of System Dynamics models exist that inform tobacco control policies. We reviewed them and discuss their contributions. We developed a th...
There is a need to bring methods to bear on public problems that are inclusive, analytic, and quick. This paper describes the efforts of three pairs of academics working from three different though complementary theoretical foundations and intervention backgrounds (ie ways of working) who set out together to meet this challenge. Each of the three p...
This special issue of the JBR illustrates a range of applications of modeling and simulation from the system dynamics perspective to problems in marketing and related areas. The papers pertain to the diffusion of new products and technologies, advertising effectiveness, management decision-making, forecasting, project dynamics, and innovation and l...
In this paper several of the early workers in the field of system dynamics tell some of the history of the Society itself. Several slightly different versions of this story have been told over the past several years and we thought it would be interesting to involve a broader group in this kind of modified oral history project. The paper is based on...
The purpose of the paper is to enhance the understanding of different pricing systems within the real world of solid waste management: first the effect on recycling behaviour of citizens, and second the effect on the budget goals, and third the operational logic of different economic measures will be analyzed. Hence it helps practitioners understan...
As practiced in our group at Albany, we envision Group Model Building (GMB) as a stool supported by three complementary legs, Teamwork, Scripts, and Improvised Facilitation. The first two of these clusters of principles and skills have been previously described in the published literature (Andersen and Richardson 1997, and Richardson and Andersen,...
Notes and Insights is a forum for discussion and debate about current issues in the philosophy and application of the system dynamics approach, and a marketplace for the exchange of information about current research, policy issues, and teaching experiences. Manuscripts treating material particularly suited to presentation in short form (less than...
In this section the System Dynamics Review presents problems having the potential to stimulate system dynamics research. Articles may address real-world dynamic problems that could be approached fruitfully from the system dynamics perspective, or methodological problems affecting the field. A paper submitted to the Research Problems section should...
The system dynamics group at the Rockefeller College of the University at Albany has been developing techniques to create system dynamic models with groups of managers during the last 25 years. Building upon their tradition in decision conferencing, the group has developed a particular style that involves a facilitation team in which people play di...
When policy-makers use a test result with a cut-off score in a decision, the cut-off threshold may change over time. An example is the threshold of “reasonable suspicion” used to justify a police search. Hammond (1996) postulated that a decision threshold will oscillate over time in response to competing pressures from affected constituencies, as u...
The system dynamics group at Albany has been developing approaches to decision conferencing using a combination of group facilitation techniques linked to projected computer models in the room for more than 20 years. Over the years, the group has developed a series of pieces of small group processes to build system dynamics models with groups, i.e....
This article briefly defines and describes the pathway participation metric (PPM), a mathematical calculation that can help to identify the linkages between the structure and behavior of a dynamic system. PPM has been implemented in an experimental piece of software called Digest, which we then present. Digest is not a simulation language, but rather...
This paper presents a model of interpersonal trust dynamics, grounded in a longitudinal case study of an interorganizational information technology development project in New York State. System dynamics is the simulation method selected in this theory-building effort, based on qualitative data collected by the Center for Technology in Government. T...
The objective of this paper is to develop a dynamic theory of interorganizational learning and knowledge acquisition in strategic alliances. Strategic alliances are becoming an increasingly important organizational form to gain access to new knowledge and to leverage existing knowledge. By establishing an alliance with one or more partners, an orga...
Numerous natural and human-made systems can be described as nonlinear or complex. Such systems often escape the straight cause-effect and linear modeling patterns which traditional science has successfully used over centuries. Linear approximations of dynamic phenomena rarely deliver satisfactory results. On the other hand, nonlinear modeling techn...
This paper presents a System Dynamics Solid Waste Management model that is based in a feedback perspective on human behavior and public policy (Ulli-Beer 2003). A SD-choice structure is suggested that both highlights the interactions of personal and contextual factors and is suited to explain and forecast the impact and outcome of recycling initiat...
This paper explores the dynamics of trust, collaboration, and knowledge sharing in the context of a multi- governmental, interorganizational project to design and implement a new information system. Drawing on research and a case study of a successful project, the authors construct a system dynamics model and simulate a base case scenario. They the...
DTMNN06This paper describes the development and testing of a system dynamics model of collaboration, trust building, and knowledge sharing in a complex, intergovernmental information system project. The model building and testing activity was an exploration of the feasibility of applying these modeling methods to a complex interorganizational proce...
We intended this research both to discover a set of core practices in the system-dynamics modeling process and to identify the best of them according to the knowledgeable opinion of a recognized group of experts in the field. The paper addresses two questions: (1) What aspects of the system dynamics modeling process are common to all model building...
The current literature review investigates the literature of dynamic decision making. Based on the 33 empirical studies published from 1978 to 1997, the study provides five categories for grouping the dependent variables: task performance, learning, efforts for decision making, quality of decision-making process, and decision-making architecture. 2...
Researchers from the State University of New York at Albany and the New York State Office of Mental Health have been engaged in testing an experimental approach to evaluating systems thinking interventions. This research calls for a similar systems thinking intervention to be repeated in four counties with four control counties also selected and ob...
An abstract is not available.
A reemerging problem Word-and-arrow diagrams (causal-loop diagrams, influence diagrams, cognitive maps, and the like) are enjoying widespread use in the system dynamics and systems thinking communities. It is increasingly common to see these diagrams with links labeled "S" and "O" to identify causal effects in the "Same" or "Opposite" direction to...
This article discusses the issue of making group model building interventions more of a science than an art by outlining a number of requirements of a research program. Important elements that are discussed are the various goals of group model building interventions and the components and scripts of an intervention. Then the problem of theory devel...
Building models directly with client groups has become increasingly common in the field of system dynamics. For the past nine years, the modeling group at the University at Albany has been experimenting with techniques handling the complex modeling and facilitation processes involved in group work. This article extends the previously reported work...
In this provocative article, the author sets out a personal list of "problems" that must be solved if the field of system dynamics is "… to advance beyond a craft, to approach the rigors of a science." The problems include issues in the enhancement of technical and interpretive aspects of modeling, and in the advancement and propogation of good pra...
Ongoing research at the Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy is focusing on strategies for efficient and effective model building in groups. The intent is to involve a relatively large client group in the business of model formulation. Recent projects have explored strategies for accelerated group model building in the context of three...
Founded in the mid-1950s, the field of system dynamics has intellectual roots reaching much further into the past. This section seeks to publish material from that past that can contribute to current theory and practice. It welcomes previously unpublished but deserving system dynamics work, classics from past system dynamics literature that should...
This paper is the second in a pair presented in this volume. The first paper presents a theoretical view of mental models appropriate for carrying out empirically-based research on system dynamics modeling interventions. Mental models consist of three types of measurable sub-models--ends models, means models, and means-ends models. The means-ends m...
An abstract is not available.
System dynamics models are often created using multiple streams of information including quantitative data, written records, and information contained in the mental models of both individuals and groups. While qualitative sources of information are widely recognized as important in all stages of the model-building process, little systematic researc...
For 10 years, the Decision Techtronics Group (DTG) has helped public organizations use decision modeling to improve group decision making. When the New York State Insurance Department faced the task of making recommendations to resolve the medical-malpractice crisis, it developed, with the help of DTG, a system dynamics simulation model and a multi...
System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to policy analysis and design. With origins in servomechanisms engineering and management, the approach uses a perspective based on information feedback and circular causality to understand the dynamics of complex social systems.
The loop concept underlying feedback and circular causality is not sufficie...
This article describes a model of the life cycle of the petroleum resource in the United States. Expanding on prior system dynamic models of petroleum resources, the model endogenously generates the complete life cycle of the resource. It treats endogenously petroleum demand; the development of technology for, and investment in, exploration and rec...
In this section the System Dynamics Review presents problems having the potential to stimulate system dynamics research. Articles may address real-world dynamic problems that could be approached fruitfully from the system dynamics perspective, or methodological problems affecting the field. A paper submitted to the Research Problems section should...
In its first year (1986-87), a $37.4 million Connecticut aid program has markedly reduced disparities in teacher salaries and expenditures per pupil. This paper reviews the use of school aid increases in Connecticut, describes the simulation models used, explains the models' role in targeting state aid, and outlines the legislation and its results....
Estimates of ultimate recoverable petroleum resources in the lower 48 states have increased since 1910, but peaked in the 1960s and have since declined by over 50%. The apparent tendency of the estimates to overshoot their targets raises questions about the rationality and utility of estimation strategies. This paper describes a simulation-based st...
Notes and Insights is a forum for discussion and debate about current issues in the philosophy and application of the system dynamics approach, and a marketplace for the exchange of information about current research, policy issues, and teaching experiences. Manuscripts treating material particularly suited to presentation in short form (less than...
Years ago, I suggested that there was no current or impending oil shortage. Growing consumption, static U.S. production, and other reasons offered then and now did not imply that prices would rise. That conclusion only made sense if the pressure on reserves was increasing, a situation that would be signaled by rising costs of maintaining and expand...
Founded in the mid-1950s, the field of system dynamics has intellectual roots reaching much further into the past. The Archives section of the Review seeks to publish material from that past which can contribute to current theory and practice. The section welcomes previously unpublished but deserving system dynamics work, classics from past system...
Estimates of petroleum and natural gas resources vary substantially, both over time and across estimation methods. This paper develops a simulation model of global oil resources to evaluate different resource estimation techniques. Protocols for the Hubbert life cycle and USGS geological analogy methods are developed and applied to synthetic data g...
For a week in June 2001, a small group of schoolteachers and professional system dynamicists convened in Essex, Massachusetts under the guidance of Jay Forrester to plan the future of system dynamics in kindergarten through twelfth grade (K-12) education. Based on early experience in schools, the group articulated a vision of what an education base...
While institutions are a key determinant of economic behavior and new institutions are often formed as a part of an economic policy, a systematic way to design these institutions and test their potential performance before they are created does not exist. I have attempted in this paper to create and test such a design for an environmental mitigatio...
There is a need to bring methods to bear on public problems that are inclusive, analytic, and quick. This paper describes the efforts of three pairs of academics working from three different though complementary theoretical foundations and intervention backgrounds (ie ways of working) who set out together to meet this challenge. Each of the three p...
Abstract Ongoing research at the Rockefeller College is exploring the ability of subjects in a computer- based management,laboratory to manage,the implementation,of welfareseform. Reflections on the design , integrated theory of perception, planning. action, and learning in complex
We worked with care providers who work with the elderly clients to create strategies for providing an adequate scope of dementia care services over the next fifteen years. The group model building sessions were based on two new scripts that combine the speed, efficiency and legitimacy of Group Explorer mapping with some of the additional analytic p...
Public policies often fail to achieve their intended result due to the complexity of both the environment and the policy making process. In this article, we review the benefits of using small system dynamics models to address public policy questions. First we discuss the main difficulties inherent in the public policymaking process. Then, we discus...
2004). Using the SD-SWM-model to inform policy making for solid waste management at the local level. This paper presents a comparative policy analysis drawing on the System Dynamics Solid Waste Management model that is based in a feedback perspective on human behavior and public policy (Ulli-Beer 2003). The model is suited to address the following...