George R. Neumann

George R. Neumann
University of Iowa | UI · Department of Economics

About

63
Publications
6,804
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
3,126
Citations
Citations since 2016
0 Research Items
602 Citations
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100
2016201720182019202020212022020406080100

Publications

Publications (63)
Article
This study combines a widely held view of how earnings are related to education and job tenure (The Mincer model1) with the notion that earnings are associated with the quality of an employer–employee job match. The quality of an individual's occupational choice is measured using job congruence, a commonly-used construct in the psychometric literat...
Article
Economic data are frequently generated by stochastic processes that can be modelled as occurring in continuous time. That is, the data are treated as realizations of a random function (functional data). Sometimes an economic theory model specifies the process up to a finite-dimensional parameter. This paper develops a test of the null hypothesis th...
Article
Full-text available
The ability of groups of people to make predictions is a potent research tool that should be freed of unnecessary government restrictions.
Article
Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of...
Conference Paper
Background: Indications are that the pandemic potential of H5N1 influenza is increasing, but the likelihood of that event and the timing and path of spread are all unknown. Information about H5N1 is disparate, geographically dispersed and often subjective, limiting the usefulness of traditional methods in the collection and interpretation of these...
Article
Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of...
Article
Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome...
Article
As a consequence of the rapid growth of temporary agency employment in Germany, the debate on the remuneration of temporary agency workers has intensified recently. The study finds that the earnings gap of temporary help workers in Germany is indeed large and increased during the past decade. Decomposition reveals that the widening gap mainly is dr...
Conference Paper
Background: The extent and timing of local and regional influenza (FLU) epidemics vary yearly. Advance notice of FLU activity could greatly assist preparedness. Diverse information available to individual health care professionals (HCPs, e.g.: physicians, pharmacists, nurses, microbiologists) might predict FLU activity if it could be aggregated in...
Article
Full-text available
The article structually estimates an on-the-job search model of job separations. Given each employer pays observably equivalent workers the same but wages are dispersed across employers, an employer's separation flow is the sum of an exogenous outflow unrelated to the wage and a job-to-job flow that decreases with the employer's wage. Using data fr...
Article
This paper compares stimulus response (SR) and belief-based learning (BBL) using data from experiments with sender-receiver games. The environment, extensive form games played in a population setting, is novel in the empirical literature on learning in games. Both the SR and BBL models fit the data reasonably well in games where the preferences of...
Article
This paper applies the Burdett-Mortensen (1998) equilibrium search model to study the school to work transitions of U.S. high school graduates. We consider the case of discrete firm heterogeneity and provide a computational method to obtain the MLE. Our results shaw that unemployed blacks receive fewer offers than whites and employed blacks are mor...
Article
This paper considers estimation of a pure equilibrium search model in which all heterogeneity is endogenous and due to information asymmetries, and of variations that allow better fits to the data: Measurement error and heterogeneity in the productivity levels of firms. The model is fit to a random sample of individuals representing 1% of the Danis...
Article
This paper applies the Burdett-Mortensen (1998) equilibrium search model to study the school to work transitions of U.S. high school graduates. We consider the case of discrete firm heterogeneity and provide a computational method to obtain the MLE. Our results show that unemployed blacks receive fewer offers than whites and employed blacks are mor...
Article
Learning and communication play important roles in coordinating activities. Game theory and experiments have made a significant contribution to our understanding and appreciation for the issues surrounding learning and communication in coordination. However, the results of past experimental studies provide conflicting results about the performance...
Article
We report on a two-stage experiment in which (i) we first elicit the social network within a section of undergraduate students and (ii) we then measure their altruistic attitudes by means of a standard Dictator game. We observe that more socially integrated subjects are also more altruistic, as betweenness centrality and reciprocal degree are posit...
Article
Models of job creation and destruction emphasize the endogeneity of the decision to start up or kill off a job. Faced with random and largely idiosyncratic shocks to productivity, firms adopt a reservation strategy for keeping a job in existence. This reservation productivity depends upon the wage determination rule that is used by the parties. Com...
Article
This inductive study offers an examination of 23 cases in which informants from firms engaged in large-scale global projects reported unforeseen costs after failing to comprehend cognitive-cultural, normative, and/or regulative institutions in an unfamiliar host societal context. The study builds on the conceptual framework of institutional theory....
Article
Full-text available
Stimulus-response (SR) and belief-based learning (BBL) models are estimated with experimental data from sender-receiver games and compared using the Davidson and MacKinnon P-test for non-nested hypotheses. Depending on a certain adjustment parameter, the P-test favors the SR model, the BBL model or neither of the models. Following Camerer and Ho, t...
Article
This paper studies estimation of the number and location of modes of the wage distribution. The location of the modes can be used to estimate the cutpoints of the equilibrium wage distribution (Bowlus, Kiefer, and Neumann, 1995) in the presence of measurement error. These cutpoints can be used to classify workers into productivity classes; Company...
Article
Full-text available
The essential idea of equilibrium search models of labour market behaviour is that wage policy matters. In contrast, the stylized neoclassical competitive model predicts that firms paying a wage above the competitive equilibrium will disappear; those offering less will attract no workers. The search approach introduces "friction" via information as...
Article
Full-text available
This paper makes two contributions to the literature on equilibrium search models. We cast the problem of determining the number of productivity types into a search for modes of the wage distribution and we use recent techniques of mode hunting to estimate the number and location of these modes.
Article
Full-text available
Specification and extimation of a burdett-mortensen type equilibrium search model is considered. The estimation problem is nonstandard. An estimation strategy asymptotically equivalent to maximum likelihood is proposed and applied.
Article
Equilibrium search models require unobserved heterogeneity in productivityto fit observed wage distribution data, but provide no guidance about the location parameter of the heterogeneity. In this paper we show that the location of the productivity heterogeneity implies a mode in a kernel density estimate of the wage distribution.
Article
Evidence shows that real-effort investments can affect bilateral bargaining outcomes. This paper investigates whether similar investments can inhibit equilibrium convergence of experimental markets. In one treatment, sellers’ relative effort affects the allocation of production costs, but a random productivity shock ensures that the allocation is n...
Article
Equilibrium search models generalize the one-sided models used earlier by endogenizing the wage offer distribution. Attempts to estimate versions of these equilibrium n search models have been unsuccessful, ironically because the predicted wage distribution did not fit the wage data. In this paper we extend the applicability of search models by int...
Article
A study applied the principles of benefit-cost analysis to three prototype grants programs of AmeriCorps: AmeriCorps for Math and Literacy, Project First, and the East Bay Conservation Corps. It studied the methods these projects used and estimated the benefits using data from projects similar in approach and implementation. Benefits received by Am...
Article
Full-text available
This study analyzes the effects of publicly funded continuous vocational training and retraining programs in the former East Germany after unification with West Germany in 1990. It presents econometric estimates of the average gains from training in terms of employment probabilities, earnings, and career prospects after the completion of training u...
Article
This article describes a generalized moments specification test of the semiparametric proportional hazards model of Cox. In contrast to other specification tests for this model, the generalized moments test is applicable in the presence of continuous explanatory variables and does not require assigning the data to predetermined cells. The results o...
Article
Full-text available
Results from the Iowa Political Stock Market are analyzed to ascertain how well markets work as aggregators of information. The authors find that the market worked extremely well, dominating opinion polls in forecasting the outcome of the 1988 presidential election, even though traders in the market exhibited substantial amounts of judgment biases....
Article
In June 2009 a new financial supervisory framework for the European Union (EU) was endorsed, consisting of a macro- and a micro-prudential pillar. The latter is composed of a Steering Committee, a supranational layer and a network of national supervisory authorities at the bottom, de facto establishing a complex multiple principals-multiple agents...
Article
This paper studies determinants of the geographic distribution of unemployment in the United States since 1950. The authors argue that "equilibrium" differences in unemployment among markets are partially supported by corresponding differences in the covariance structure of sectoral demands for labor. When workers are mobile, greater diversificatio...
Article
We define a hierarchy of parametric and semiparametric specifications for censored regression models that is ordered according to the strength of the assumptions that are made. We review the estimation techniques and specification tests that are available at each level of the hierarchy. The estimation and testing procedures are illustrated by apply...
Book
This collection of papers marks the development of empirical application of the search approach to labor economics - an approach which arose as a theoretical development of the 1960s and led to numerous insights in the 1970s. The search approach naturally incorporates uncertainty in the economic model, making up some of the early work in what is no...
Article
In this note, we report a dramatic improvement in the computational efficiency of semiparametric generalized least squares(SGLS) estimation. Computation of SGLS estimates no longer presents serious problems with data sets of moderate size. We also correct a numerical error in the standard errors of the SGLS estimates reported in our recent paper in...
Article
There are a variety of economic areas, such as studies of employment duration and of the durability of capital goods, in which data on important variables typically are censored. The standard techinques for estimating a model from censored data require the distributions of unobservable random components of the model to be specified a priori up to a...
Article
Full-text available
Most data used to study the durations of unemployment spells come from the Current Population Survey, which is a point-in-time survey and gives an incomplete picture of the underlying duration distribution. We introduce a new sample of completed unemployment spells obtained from panel data and apply CPS sampling and reporting techniques to replicat...
Article
A stochastic dynamic model of labour supply is specified and analysed empirically. The theoretical model provides a sound structural economic basis for a class of empirical models which have been shown useful. The implications of the estimated model are explored and diagnostic checks are suggested and implemented.
Article
This study analyzes the relationship between strike activity and output among disaggregated manufacturing industries. A major finding is that in many manufacturing industries, strikes have no discernible effect on industry output. Even when strikes are found to have a statistically significant effect on output, the net loss of output appears to be...
Article
Full-text available
The paper focuses on satisfaction with income and proposes a utility model built on two value systems, the `Ego' system - described as one own income assessment relatively to one own past and future income - and the `Alter' system - described as one own income assessment relatively to a reference group. We show how the union of these two value syst...
Article
Recently survival analysis has made its debut in econometrics as a technique for modeling the observed labor force experience of individuals over time. Although continuous-time theoretical models of optimal dynamic labor force participation are available, little use of them has been made in the empirical literature. Recent papers by Burdett et al.,...
Article
The Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969 has contributed to the decline in mine productivity, which must be weighed against safer working conditions for the miners. There may be some overstatement of the benefits if only fatalities are considered, however, because there was an increase in non-fatal accidents after 1970. Safety regulations have f...
Article
The Surplus Property Act of 1944 established several social objectives for the disposal of war surplus. In particular, small business was to be benefited; concentration was to be reduced. Such objectives are better considered as part of the war mobilization rather than the peacetime reconversion. While suggesting that concentration was not reduced,...
Article
This paper extends the empirical version of a job-search model to permit heterogeneity in the location of wage offer distributions. Population variance in wage offers is decomposed into variance due to heterogeneity and variance facing each individual. Heterogeneity is found to be an important source of offer variance in the population. The amount...
Article
Analyses of strike behavior rarely take account of prior learning and experience of bargainers. We show that experienced bargainers have fewer strikes than others and that differences in strike activity across U.S. manufacturing industries vary inversely with the estimated cost of striking. The cost of striking is measured as an inverse function of...
Article
Discussions of strike activity, and in particular of the costs of strike activity, generally ignore the existence of capital markets. If strikes are costly and if they are predictable, the presence of capital markets limits the losses that can be imposed on firms. This paper examines the effect of strikes on the value of the firm as measured by the...
Article
This paper provides an empirically tractable version of a job-search model. The model is estimated using data on a sample of workers who were laid off when their plants closed. A generalization of the empirical model which allows for reservation wages to change over duration of unemployment is provided and estimated. Reservation wages are found to...
Article
The finite sample power function is shown to be bounded by a power upper bound. The same power upper bound is valid for any test of a hypothesis. In normal regression models the power upper bound is simple to calculate including cases where the hypotheses are composite and where the regression function is nonlinear.
Article
Full-text available
This paper considers estimation of a pure equilibrium search model in which all heterogeneity is endogenous and due to information asymmetries, and of variations that allow better fits to the data: Measurement error, investment in human capital, and heterogeneity in the productivity levels of firms. The model is fit to a random sample of individual...

Network

Cited By