George B Arhonditsis

University of Toronto | U of T · Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences at Scarborough

Tornadoes represent one of nature’s most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Nor...

The Lotka–Volterra model is the most commonly used framework to describe the dynamics of ecological systems in which two species interact, one as a predator and the other as prey. Theoretical ecologists have since built on variants of these equations, frequently applying them to model the dynamics of algal-herbivore interactions in aquatic systems....

There is considerable ambiguity around the importance of demographic and socio-economic characteristics that catalyze pro-environmental behaviours. These factors are typically deemed responsible for environmental skepticism, such as the degree of trust in social institutions, fundamental views of the individuals (e.g., religiosity and political ide...

This study investigates the food web structure of the Xinlicheng Reservoir, a drinking water source of critical importance in Changchun, China, by employing stable isotope analysis (SIA) to quantify the contribution ratios of four basal dietary sources—phytoplankton, zooplankton, sediment organic matter, and particulate organic matter (POM)—to the...

Terrestrial hydrological and nutrient cycles are subjected to major disturbances by agricultural operations and urbanization that profoundly influence freshwater resources. Non‐point source pollution is one of the primary causes for water quality deterioration, and thus an emerging imperative in limnology is establishing empirical models that conne...

Rapid urbanization has exacerbated the dual challenge of mitigating water pollution and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The present study offers insights into the actual role of urban domestic wastewater treatment systems by shedding light on their capacity to act as GHG emitters. We introduce a modelling framework to calculate GHG emissio...

Study region: The Bay of Quinte watershed, located on the northeastern shore of Lake Ontario, Canada. Special focus is placed on the Napanee River and Wilton Creek catchments, where the presence of a subterranean network of conduits that facilitate groundwater-surface water interactions is conducive to an increase in the delivery of nutrients durin...

Understanding how human actions and environmental change affect water resources is crucial for addressing complex water management issues. The scientific tools that can produce the necessary information are ecological indicators, referring to measurable properties of the ecosystem state; environmental monitoring, the data collection process that is...

Notwithstanding the continuing advancement of our understanding of the broader ecosystem functioning in Lake Ontario, emerging evidence suggests that there are fundamental knowledge gaps to accurately describe the relationship between exogenous phosphorus (P) loading and in-lake total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. The whole-lake load appears to f...

The Laurentian Great Lakes represent the largest freshwater basin on Earth, containing 21% of the world's surface fresh water by volume. Water level fluctuations are an ongoing concern and have received considerable attention in the area. We present a trend analysis of meteorological (air temperature, cloud cover, and wind speed) and hydrological (...

Unlabelled: Shallow littoral areas in lakes are productive and highly diverse ecotonal zones, providing habitats for both invertebrate and vertebrate species. We developed a Bayesian modeling framework to elucidate the relationships between environmental drivers (lake typology, habitat, water chemistry, and latitude) and taxon richness, abundance,...

Africa is experiencing extensive biodiversity loss due to rapid changes in the environment, where natural resources constitute the main instrument for socioeconomic development and a mainstay source of livelihoods for an increasing population. Lack of data and information deficiency on biodiversity, but also budget constraints and insufficient fina...

Freshwater marsh restoration can be a viable natural climate solution; however, the extent to which marsh soils bury and preserve organic carbon within policy‐relevant timescales remains highly uncertain. Here, we compare organic carbon masses and accumulation rates from an undrained reference marsh, a passively restored freshwater marsh (reflooded...

The COVID-19 pandemic really went viral (pun intended) and dominated the media and public discourse, often overshadowing coverage of the equally urgent climate crisis. Despite their distinct features, both crises share important characteristics, such as global impact, economic repercussions, and associations with biodiversity loss, which disproport...

Mercury (Hg) sequestration by phytoplankton results in intracellular concentrations that are multiple times greater than ambient water levels, and therefore the consumption of contaminated phytoplankton by herbivorous zooplankton, such as Daphnia, and their inefficient excretion of methylmercury (MeHg) can mediate the transfer to higher trophic lev...

Understanding the variability and predominant drivers of water level fluctuations in large water bodies is critical for the development of proactive mitigation plans in the nearshore zone. Here, for the first time, we reconstruct the individual and collective influence of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, region 3...

We examine the ability of a SPARROW-based model (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to assess regional P export coefficients that can assist with evaluation of nutrient mitigation projects and support adaptive watershed management. Limitations in number of tributary monitoring stations were overcome by assembling multi-agency...

The Lower Great Lakes are surrounded by diverse wetland types including a critical coastal zone supporting local fisheries and some of the highest levels of rare or threatened species in Canada. Riparian zones adjacent to rivers flowing into Lake Erie support marshes and swamps, with mineral and organic sediments, contributing to regional-scale car...

Several studies have shown that large, experimental additions of nitrate (NO3) to eutrophic systems can mitigate large populations of nuisance cyanobacteria and that high NO3 concentrations can oxidize anoxic sediments. These studies are consistent with observations from numerous aquatic systems across a broad trophic range showing development of r...

Forecasts of increased frequency of meteorological extremes have received considerable attention due to their potential impact on the integrity of biotic communities, stability of terrestrial and aquatic environments, availability of ecosystem services, and broader societal prosperity. Canada is projected to experience greater warming rates than ma...

The present study applied an ensemble of Bayesian SPARROW models in the eastern Georgian Bay drainage basin informed by multi-agency tributary water quality monitoring data collected in the area. Consistent with our current understanding of the role of wetlands in the Precambrian Shield, our analysis showed that they could be responsible for nearly...

Understanding water level fluctuation patterns in the Great Lakes is one of the pillars for designing adaptive management practices that can mitigate the impacts of extreme water levels on shoreline infrastructure and associated economic activities. The present study uses continuous wavelet transformation to conduct a two-dimensional frequency-scal...

Cyanobacterial carbonate precipitation induced by cyanobacterium Gloeocapsa enhances mortar durability. Cells are preferably attached to cement paste than sand grains and use atmospheric CO2 to precipitate carbonates. The cell coverage is higher in the presence of UV-killed cells than living cells, providing insights for microbial mortar restoratio...

The present study aims to provide guidelines with respect to the implementation of a watershed modelling framework that can support adaptive management in the Canadian side of the Lake Erie basin. Our primary objective is to highlight the establishment of a multimodel ensemble as an appealing strategy that can address a wide range of conceptual and...

Hydropower generation, a renewable source of electricity, has been linked to elevated methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in impoundments and aquatic biota. This study investigates the impact of water level fluctuations (WLF) on MeHg concentrations in water, sediment, and fish. Using a set of controlled microcosm experiments emulating the drawdown/...

Emerging evidence suggests that zooplankton production is affected by physiological and nutritional constraints due to climate change and eutrophication, which in turn could have broad implications for food-web dynamics and fisheries production. In this study, we developed a resource-based zooplankton production dynamics model that causally links f...

Cyanobacterial carbonate precipitation induced by cells and extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) enhances mortar durability. The percentage of cell/EPS attachment regulates the effectiveness of the mortar restoration. This study investigates the cell coverage on mortar and microbially induced carbonate precipitation. Statistical analysis of res...

Food production systems, urbanization, and other anthropogenic activities dramatically alter natural hydrological and nutrient cycles and are primarily responsible for water quality impairments in China's rivers. This study compiled a 16-year (2003-2018) dataset of river water quality (161,337 records from 2,424 sites), watershed/landscape features...

In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the spatio-temporal trends of fish contamination in the Canadian Great Lakes. We subsequently formulated consumption advisories that explicitly account for all sources of uncertainty, such as model error, sampling bias, and natural variability of fish assemblages. Our analysis generated exceed...

Elevated phosphorus (P) loading from the watersheds draining into Lake Erie, particularly from agricultural (53%) and urban (43%) sources, is identified as one of the main drivers of the severe eutrophication. In this study, we present a comprehensive evaluation of 11 process-based models to characterize the water cycle as well as nutrient fate and...

Liver and skin tumours in brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus) and white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) have been associated with contamination of the aquatic environment. In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical logistic-Bernoulli framework that considers the role of fish covariates (e.g., age, total weight, gonad weight, liver weight, for...

Environmental policy analysis aims to identify the important drivers of degradation, elucidate sources of controversy, and put the necessary risk assessment tools in place to prepare for the unexpected. It is thus critical to develop risk assessment frameworks that ensure both continuity in the decision-making process, but also iterative adjustment...

Abstract The degradation and loss of ecologically important wetlands has been a topical issue in the Great Lakes region, where 60–80% of the coastal wetlands have been lost since the 1800s. The present modeling study aims to guide the restoration efforts in Cootes Paradise marsh, one of the most degraded shallow wetlands in Southern Ontario. We use...

Evaluation of hydrological response to future climate change is essential for water quality risk assessment and adaptive management implementation within a watershed context. In this study, we present a modeling framework that integrates a hydrological model with projections of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Temperature and precipitation projec...

Ozone is a serious health concern and the only major pollutant in Ontario that is increasing, despite major efforts to control atmospheric pollutants in North America. Ambient ozone levels are affected by local atmospheric conditions (temperature, humidity, radiation, precipitation) and the concentration of its main precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOx...

Lake Erie is the shallowest and most biologically productive system of the Great Lakes, surrounded by large urban, industrial, and agricultural areas. This combination prompted extensive efforts to promote best management practices (BMPs) to mitigate non-point source pollution in Lake Erie’s watershed. Recent technical and conceptual advancements c...

Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) is listed as Endangered under Canada's Species at Risk Act. Studying rare and endangered species can be particularly challenging due to the constraints posed by incomplete datasets owing to poor weather conditions, lack of technology, organizational deficiencies, and high survey costs in remote areas. A defe...

In vivo Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is a powerful analytical tool for probing complex biological processes inside living organisms. However, due to magnetic susceptibility broadening, which produces broad lines in 1D NMR, 1H-13C 2D NMR is required for metabolite monitoring in vivo. As each 2D experiment is time consuming, often hours, this lim...

Environmental modelling is one of the pillars of the management process, representing an “information integrator” that brings together scientists, managers, and other stakeholders in a joint assessment of our understanding of the system being managed and the compelling knowledge gaps we seek to answer through monitoring and research. The overarchin...

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can have dire repercussions on aquatic wildlife and human health, and may negatively affect recreational uses, aesthetics, taste, and odor in drinking water. The factors that influence the occurrence and magnitude of harmful algal blooms and toxin production vary in space and time and remain poorly understood. It is with...

In this paper, we introduce the CSPS framework for the hierarchical assessment of aquatic ecosystem models built on a range of metrics and characteristic signatures relevant to aquatic ecosystem condition. The framework is comprised of four levels: 0) conceptual validation; 1) comparison of simulated state variables with observations (‘state valida...

Management actions taken to meet the phosphorus load targets in the 1978 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement proved highly successful, initially. Eutrophication symptoms abated, and attention was redirected toward other important water quality problems. However, in the early 2000s Lake Erie, in particular, began to re-experience severe algal blooms...

In the field of biological conservation, mathematical modeling has been an indispensable tool to advance our understanding of population dynamics. Modeling rare and endangered species with complex ecophysiological tools can be challenging due to the constraints imposed by data availability. One strategy to overcome the mismatch between what we are...

The enactment of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) initiated scientific efforts to develop reliable methods for comparing prevailing lake conditions against reference (or nonimpaired) states, using the state of a set biological elements. Drawing a distinction between impaired and natural conditions can be a challenging exercise. Another important...

The estimation of hydrologic transit times in a catchment provides insights into the integrated effects of water storage, mixing dynamics and runoff generation processes. There has been limited effort to estimate transit times in southern boreal Precambrian Shield landscapes, which are characteristically heterogeneous with surface cover including t...

Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice col...

Climate variability and a wide range of anthropogenic disturbances in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) have a negative impact on Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) populations by encumbering seasonal migration patterns, forage accessibility, and calving processes. Increasing Arctic temperatures and precipitation along with the higher fre...

Eutrophication of freshwaters is already a problem in many regions globally and will probably worsen as human populations grow and consume more resources. The ability of researchers and governments to anticipate, mitigate, and restore eutrophic freshwaters in a cohesive, integrated manner suffers from key uncertainties in our understanding of the w...

Evaluating the degree of improvement of an impaired freshwater ecosystem resembles the statistical null-hypothesis testing through which the prevailing conditions are compared against a reference state. The pillars of this process involve the robust delineation of what constitutes an achievable reference state; the establishment of threshold values...

Extreme-flow events have been a central point of interest in hydrology and recent developments suggest that their role could be critical in the overall functioning of watershed systems. The development of modelling techniques that can effectively reproduce the hydrological dynamics of watersheds during extreme events is one of the challenges of the...

Our understanding of the potential impact of climatic change on catchment hydrology and aquatic system dynamics has been advanced over the past decade, but there are still considerable knowledge gaps with respect to its effects on water quality vis-à-vis the increasing demands for drinking water. In this study, we developed an integrated hydrologic...

Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice col...

Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice col...

Freshwater ecosystems can experience harmful algal blooms, which negatively impact recreational uses, aesthetics, taste, and odor in drinking water. Cyanobacterial toxins can have dire repercussions on aquatic wildlife and human health, and the most ubiquitous worldwide are the hepatotoxic compounds known as microcystins. The factors that influence...

In Lake Erie, a wide variety of statistical and process-based models have significantly advanced our understanding of the major causal linkages/ecosystem processes underlying the local water quality problems. In this study, our aim is to identify knowledge gaps, monitoring assessment objectives, and management recommendations that should be critica...

We present a technical analysis of all the recent modelling work that has been conducted to support the adaptive management process in Lake Erie; the most biologically productive system of the Great Lakes. With a wealth of models developed, Lake Erie represents a unique case study where an impressive variety of data-driven and process-based models...