Gene Amromin

We examine the ability of the government to impact mortgage refinancing activity and spur consumption by focusing on the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) that relaxed housing equity constraints by extending government credit guarantee on insufficiently collateralized refinanced mortgages. Difference-in-difference tests based on program elig...

We examine the ability of the government to impact mortgage refinancing activity and spur consumption by focusing on the Home Affordable Refinancing Program (HARP). The policy allowed intermediaries to refinance insufficiently collateralized mortgages by extending government credit guarantee on such loans. We use proprietary loan-level panel data f...

This paper explores the effects of mandatory third-party review of mortgage contracts on consumer choice. The study is based on a legislative pilot carried out in Illinois in 2006, under which mortgage counseling was triggered by applicant credit scores or by their choice of “risky mortgages.” Low-credit score applicants for whom counselor review w...

Experts from economics, finance, law, policy, and banking discuss the design and implementation of a future capital market union in Europe. The plan for further development of Europe's economic and monetary union foresees the creation of a capital market union (CMU)—a single market for capital in the entire Eurozone. The need for citizens and firms...

U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee considered many important banking reforms in 2009-2010 including the Dodd-Frank Act. We show that during this period, the foreclosure starts on delinquent mortgages were delayed in the districts of committee members even though there was no difference in delinquency rates between committee...

The U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee considered many important banking reforms in 2009 to 2010. We show that during this period, foreclosure starts on delinquent mortgages were delayed in the districts of committee members although there was no difference in delinquency rates between committee and noncommittee districts. I...

When borrowers are delinquent, senior debtholders prefer liquidation whereas junior debtholders prefer to maintain their option value by delaying resolution or modifying the loan. In the mortgage market, a conflict of interest (holdup) arises when servicers of securitized senior liens are also the owners of the junior liens on the same property. We...

We evaluate the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that provided intermediaries with sizable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. HAMP increased intensity of renegotiations and prevented a substantial number of foreclosures but reached just one-third of its targeted indebted households. This shortfall was in l...

As the cost of education rises and student debt reaches new highs, more research has focused on financing the acquisition of human capital. Most research has had a positive focus, examining the effect of debt on student choices and outcomes. However, because education financing involves many public policy choices, normative questions have become mo...

We examine the ability of the government to impact mortgage refinancing activity and spur consumption by focusing on the Home Affordable Refinancing Program (HARP). The policy allowed intermediaries to refinance insufficiently collateralized mortgages by extending government credit guarantee on such loans. We use proprietary loan-level panel data f...

In this paper, we document trends in credit use across income groups in the period surrounding the Great Recession. We investigate trends in access to different credit markets, including mortgages, home equity, automobiles, and student loans. We disentangle growth rates of new market entrants from the aggregates and analyze overall as well as withi...

Data obtained from monthly Gallup/UBS surveys from 1998 to 2007 and from a special supplement to the Michigan Surveys of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior, run in 22 monthly surveys between 2000 and 2005, are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. We show that the key variables found to be positive predicto...

We explore a policy-induced change in borrower ability to shop for mortgages to investigate whether market competitiveness affects mortgage interest rates. Our paper exploits a discontinuity in the competitive landscape introduced by the Home Affordable Refinancing Program (HARP). Under HARP, lenders that currently service loans eligible for refina...

The main rationale for policy intervention in debt renegotiation is to enhance such activity when foreclosures are perceived to be inefficiently high. We examine the ability of the government to influence debt renegotiation by empirically evaluating the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that provided intermediaries (se...

Complex mortgages exhibit deferred amortization and enable households to postpone loan repayment in contrast to fully amortizing traditional mortgages. Unlike the low income population targeted by subprime mortgages, complex mortgages are used by households with high income levels and prime credit scores. We find that complex mortgage borrowers exh...

Complex mortgages exhibit deferred amortization and enable households to postpone loan repayment in contrast to fully amortizing traditional mortgages. Unlike the low income population targeted by subprime mortgages, complex mortgages are used by households with high income levels and prime credit scores. We find that complex mortgage borrowers exh...

We evaluate the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that provided intermediaries with sizeable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. HAMP increased intensity of renegotiations and prevented substantial number of foreclosures but reached just one-third of its targeted indebted households. This shortfall was in la...

Data obtained from monthly Gallup/UBS surveys from 1998 to 2007 and from a special supplement to the Michigan Surveys of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior, run in 22 monthly surveys between 2000 and 2005, are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. We show that the key variables found to be positive predicto...

It is typically argued that predatory lending generated significant social costs and played a central role in creating the subprime crisis. However, there are few estimates of its true effect. We estimate the effect of predatory lending on the residential mortgage default rate using an anti-predatory program implemented in Chicago in 2006. Under th...

Loss mitigation actions (e.g., liquidation, renegotiation) of delinquent mortgages might be hampered by conflicting goals of lenders at different seniority. In particular, a servicer has less incentive to take certain actions to reduce losses of investor-owned first lien mortgages if the servicer happens to own the second lien claim secured by the...

Nearly a third of all families purchasing new homes in 2006 obtained a mortgage from a financing company owned or affiliated with a large homebuilder. Corporate parent profits from both the sale of the house and from financing the mortgage, which may lead to less screening of borrowers and mortgage terms to get the deal done. In this paper, we use...

We investigate the characteristics and the default behavior of households who take out complex mortgages. Unlike traditional fixed rate or adjustable rate mortgages, complex mortgages are not fully amortizing and enable households to postpone loan repayment. We find that complex mortgages are used by sophisticated households with high income levels...

No abstract available.

We explore the effects of mandatory third-party review of mortgage contracts on the terms, availability, and performance of mortgage credit. Our study is based on a legislative pilot carried out by the State of Illinois in a selected set of zip codes in 2006. Mortgage applicants with low FICO scores were required to attend loan reviews by financial...

We study the effects of securitization on renegotiation of distressed residential mortgages over the current financial crisis. Unlike prior studies, we employ unique data that directly observes lender renegotiation actions and covers more than 60% of US mortgage market. Exploiting within-servicer variation in this data, we find that bank-held loans...

In this study we report findings about financial literacy and financial planning behavior based on a financial advisory program in India. We evaluate survey responses to three standard questions previously used to measure financial literacy. We then break down the data across particular demographic and socioeconomic groups and compare responses. Fi...

Complex mortgages became a popular borrowing instrument during the bullish housing market of the early 2000s but vanished rapidly during the subsequent downturn. These non-traditional loans (interest only, negative amortization, and teaser mortgages) enable households to postpone loan repayment compared to traditional mortgages and hence relax borr...

In this chapter we review the literature on financial counseling, financial literacy, and consumer decision making and look at a financial counseling/planning program in India where consumers revealed their risk appetite, future financial goals, and current assets and liabilities. The results from India suggest that a vast majority of the responden...

The meltdown in residential real-estate prices that commenced in 2006 resulted in unprecedented mortgage delinquency rates. Until mid-2009, lenders and servicers pursued their own individual loss mitigation practices without being significantly influenced by government intervention. Using a unique dataset that precisely identifies loss mitigation a...

Mortgage counseling is regarded as an integral tool in ensuring appropriate choices by prospective home buyers. We use micro-level data from an urban voluntary counseling program aimed at disadvantaged households to assess its effectiveness. We find substantially lower ex-post delinquency rates among program graduates. This finding is robust to an...

This article compares default patterns among prime and subprime mortgages, analyzes the factors correlated with default, and examines how forecasts of defaults are affected by alternative assumptions about trends in home prices. The authors find that extremely pessimistic forecasts of home price appreciation could have generated predictions of subp...

While payment card usage has increased dramatically, the stock of outstanding currency has not declined as rapidly. We analyze changes in cash demand for 13 advanced economies from 1988 to 2003 by separating cash into three denomination categories to disentangle its store of wealth and payment functions. Defining denominations commonly dispensed by...

We explore the effects of mandatory third-party review of mortgage contracts on the terms, availability, and performance of mortgage credit. Our study is based on a legislative experiment in which the State of Illinois required “high-risk” mortgage applicants acquiring or refinancing properties in 10 specific zip codes to submit loan offers from st...

Mortgage counseling is regarded as an integral tool in ensuring appropriate choices by prospective home buyers. We use micro-level data from an urban voluntary counseling program aimed at disadvantaged households to assess its effectiveness. We find substantially lower ex-post delinquency rates among program graduates. This finding is robust to an...

This article provides an overview of this special issue of Economic Perspectives, which presents selected papers based on the proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's eighth annual Payments Conference, Payments Fraud: Perception Versus Reality, held on June 5–6, 2008.

We explore the effects of mandated financial counseling to borrowers on the terms and availability of mortgage credit. Our study is based on a natural experiment in Cook County, Illinois that took place in 2006. The County issued a legislation that required low credit mortgage borrowers in 10 zip codes in Cook County to take financial counseling be...

Data obtained from special questions on the Michigan Survey of Consumer Attitudes over several years are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. Consistent with other survey results, expected future returns appear to be extrapolated from past realized returns. The data also indicate that expected risk and...

Data obtained from special questions on the Michigan Survey of Consumer Attitudes over several years are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. Consistent with other survey results, expected future returns appear to be extrapolated from past realized returns. The data also indicate that expected risk and...

Many households face the tradeoff between paying an extra dollar off the remaining mortgage on their house and saving that extra dollar in tax-deferred accounts (TDAs) used for retirement. We show that, under certain conditions, it becomes a tax arbitrage to reduce mortgage prepayments and to increase TDA contributions because of the tax deductibil...

Using data from the Illinois Tollway, the authors study the effectiveness of a particular application of pricing incentives, in conjunction with a mass-marketing campaign, to foster adoption of electronic toll collection. Dissecting the consumer response by income level, the authors reveal interesting heterogeneity of consumer payment choice in thi...

During the last decade, debit card transactions grew rapidly in most advanced countries. While check usage declined and has almost disappeared in some countries, the stock of currency in circulation has not declined as fast. We use panel estimation techniques to analyze the change in transactional demand for cash resulting from greater usage of deb...

We show that a significant number of households can perform a tax arbitrage by cutting back on their additional mortgage payments and increasing their contributions to tax- deferred accounts (TDA). Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we show that about 38% of U.S. households that are accelerating their mortgage payments instead of savi...

On June 12, 2007, Chicago Metropolis 2020 and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago jointly hosted a conference to discuss road pricing strategies, as well as other issues related to reducing transportation congestion and improving economic efficiency in the Chicago region and around the world. On June 12, 2007, Chicago Metropolis 2020 and the Federa...

We test the hypothesis that the 2003 dividend tax cut boosted U.S. stock prices and thus lowered the cost of equity. Using an event-study methodology, we attempt to identify an aggregate stock market effect by comparing the behavior of U.S. common stock prices to that of European stocks and real estate investment trusts. We also examine the relativ...

Historically, an important part of Chicago’s economic strength derived from its geographic location at the nexus of the country’s transportation networks. Yet, until quite recently, the payment options on the Illinois Tollway seemed incongruous with the remarkably efficient transportation network that has kept Chicago on the country’s economic fore...

We use data obtained from a series of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Attitudes to study stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of individual investors. We find that expected returns over the medium- and long-term horizon appear to be extrapolated from past realized returns. The findings also indicate that a more optimistic assessment of macroecon...

We use data obtained from a series of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Attitudes to study stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of individual investors. We find that expected returns over the medium- and long-term horizon appear to be extrapolated from past realized returns. The findings also indicate that a more optimistic assessment of macroecon...

On January 1, 2005, Illinois doubled the highway toll for travelers paying with cash, but kept the price unchanged for those paying electronically. This paper combines a theoretical model of payment choice with empirical analysis based on this rare natural experiment of differential pricing depending on the method of payment: cash versus electronic...

Tax efficiency is the dominant consideration in theoretical portfolio models that allow for both taxable and tax-deferred accounts (TDAs). Investors are advised to locate higher-tax assets in their tax-deferred accounts, which in the Unites States commonly translates into "holding bonds inside TDAs and holding equities outside." Yet, observed portf...

Tax efficiency is the dominant consideration in theoretical portfolio models that allow for both taxable and tax-deferred accounts (TDAs). Investors are advised to locate higher-tax assets in their tax-deferred accounts, which in the Unites States commonly translates into "holding bonds inside TDAs and holding equities outside." Yet, observed portf...

We test the hypothesis that the 2003 dividend tax cut boosted U.S. stock prices and thus lowered the cost of equity. Using an event-study methodology, we attempt to identify an aggregate stock market effect by comparing the behavior of U.S. common stock prices to that of European stocks and real estate investment trusts. We also examine the relativ...

We examine the effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut on U.S. stock prices and corporate payout policies. First, using an event-study methodology, we compare the performance of U.S. stocks to that of other securities that should not have benefited from the tax change. We find that U.S. large-cap and small-cap indexes do not outperform their European...

We examine the effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut on U.S. stock prices and corporate payout policies. First, using an event-study methodology, we compare the performance of U.S. stocks to that of other securities that should not have benefited from the tax change. We find that U.S. large-cap and small-cap indexes do not outperform their European...

Recent studies argue that the spread-adjusted Taylor rule (STR), which includes a response to the credit spread, replicates monetary policy in the United State. We show (1) STR is a theoretically optimal monetary policy under heterogeneous loan interest rate contracts in both discretionay and commitment monetary policies, (2) however, the optimal r...

We use data from a ten-year panel of individual tax returns to investigate the circumstances under which households choose to incur a 10 percent penalty in order to gain early access to retirement accounts. We attempt to link the likelihood of early withdrawals to shocks experienced by households at the time of withdrawal and to the availability of...

This study explores two effects of employee stock options on tax incentives to issue debt. The deduction of option from taxable income creates a non-debt tax shield, reducing the incentive to issue debt. In contrast, the grant of options also creates a demand for hedging unexpected stock price increases, and firms have a tax-based incentive to hedg...

This paper provides a survey of existing literature on portfolio allocations in conventional and tax-deferred investment habitats. A long-standing puzzle in this literature has been the dissonance between the theoretical prediction of tax-efficient portfolio choices and observed portfolio allocations. I clarify this prediction and offer a different...

Tax efficiency is the dominant consideration in theoretical portfolio models that allow for both taxable and tax-deferred accounts. Yet, empirically observed portfolio allocations are not tax-efficient. I offer a model that is designed to bridge the existing gap and validate its predictions on household-level portfolio data from the Survey of Consu...

Municipal bonds (munis) are issued by states, cities, or other local government agencies. They may be general obligations of the issuer or secured by specified revenues, like fees paid by tollway users. The interest on municipal bonds is usually exempt from federal income taxes. Investors have long regarded these bonds as a relatively safe investme...