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Publications (46)
This paper investigates the sensitivity of U.S. economic performance to oil price changes, accounting for changes in the domestic petroleum supply-demand balance over the last decade. A non-linear (asymmetric) autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to estimate the U.S. GDP elasticity with respect to the oil price, controlling for oil...
The goal of run-of-river hydropower is to produce cost-competitive renewable electricity with minimal disruption of the natural riverine ecosystem. Modeling and feasibility analysis of alternative design options are crucial for developing new run-of-river hydropower projects. Our review shows that existing run-of-river hydropower design models focu...
This paper examines the presence of bubbles — price changes that cannot be attributed to market fundamentals — in weekly US retail gasoline prices for ten US cities, and whether these bubbles are affected by hurricane events and anti–price gouging laws. Rolling-window, right-tailed unit root tests were used to identify and date bubbles. The analysi...
The causal basis for many of the relationships in models used to estimate the indirect effects of U.S. biofuels on global agricultural markets has not been adequately established. This paper addresses this gap by examining causal interactions among corn market variables through which the indirect effects of U.S. corn use for ethanol would be transm...
Developers are required to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States (U.S.) but there is very little accessible information on the associated costs. This study compiles and analyses a dataset of environmental impacts mitigation costs for 182 hydropower projects based on documents obtained from the U.S. Federal E...
Oil demand elasticities are important behavioral parameters for assessing the effectiveness of many energy policy proposals and the economic impact of oil market shocks. Most of the literature on petroleum demand computes elasticities for one particular petroleum product in a country or group of countries. There are fewer published values for world...
Policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential economic impacts of oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe supply shocks. Literature estimates of the economic impacts of oil price shocks, summarized by the oil price elasticity of GDP, span a very wide range due to both fundamental...
Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007) were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited b...
Recent sharp changes in global oil prices have elicited spirited discussions about the causes and economic consequences. The potential causes highlighted in the literature include changes in the global economic outlook, changes in the supply and demand of oil, geopolitical factors, appreciation of the U.S. dollar, and policy responses by oil produc...
Full Text Available at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2558728
This paper evaluates the impacts of oil market shocks on the economy using a structural vector error correction model of the United States (US) economy. The model is estimated with quarterly data for ten endogenous oil market and macroeconomic variables. Supply and d...
The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17 ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of 0.1...
Indicators are needed to assess both socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of bioenergy systems. Effective indicators can help to identify and quantify the sustainability attributes of bioenergy options. We identify 16 socioeconomic indicators that fall into the categories of social well-being, energy security, trade, profitability, resour...
The interaction between biofuels and food markets remains a policy issue for a number of reasons. There is a continuing need to understand the role of biofuels in the recent spikes in global food prices. Also, there is an ongoing discussion of changes to biofuel policy as a means to cope with severe weather-induced crop losses. Lastly, there are po...
This paper evaluates the indirect energy-use emission implications of increases in the use of biofuels in the USA between 2001 and 2010 as mandates within a dynamic global computable general equilibrium model. The study incorporates explicit markets for biofuels, petroleum and other fossil fuels, and accounts for interactions among all sectors of a...
The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects and can be spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering of animals (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially lar...
The use of corn for ethanol production in the United States quintupled between 2001 and 2009, generating concerns that this could lead to the conversion of forests and grasslands around the globe, known as indirect land-use change (iLUC). Estimates of iLUC and related ‘food versus fuel’ concerns rest on the assumption that the corn used for ethanol...
Land-use change (LUC) estimated by economic models has sparked intense international debate. Models estimate how much LUC might be induced under prescribed scenarios and rely on assumptions to generate LUC values. It is critical to test and validate underlying assumptions with empirical evidence. Furthermore, this modeling approach cannot answer if...
The use of corn for ethanol production in the United States quintupled between 2001 and 2009, generating concerns that this could lead to the conversion of forests and grasslands around the globe, known as indirect land-use change (iLUC). Estimates of iLUC and related food versus fuel concerns rest on the assumption that the corn used for ethanol p...
This chapter does not address all of the economic impacts of a water supply disruption but focuses on the major one- what is often termed 'business interruption'. We omit several considerations, such as the value of any lives lost, increased crime, psychological trauma, some infrastructure costs and property damage. Various cost estimating factors...
This paper employs the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to filter cyclical components of US quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and quarterly average oil price (West Texas Intermediate—WTI). The method is adaptive and applicable to non-linear and non-stationary data. A correlation analysis of the resulting components is performed and ex...
This paper develops a bottom-up approach that focuses on behavioral responses in estimating the total economic impacts of the September 11, 2001, World Trade Center (WTC) attacks. The estimation includes several new features. First, is the collection of data on the relocation of firms displaced by the attack, the major source of resilience in mutin...
In this chapter, we report on the development of a capability to analyze, both theoretically and empirically, the impact of natural hazards and terrorist activities on households directly and through their interaction with the rest of the economy. This will be done with the use of household production functions. It calls for the enhancement of the...
Regional economies are highly dependent on electricity, thus making their power supply systems attractive terrorist targets. We estimate the largest category of economic losses from electricity outages-business interruption-in the context of a total blackout of electricity in Los Angeles. We advance the state of the art in the estimation of the two...
We examine the cost-side income distribution impacts of a carbon tax in the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) Region of the United States utilizing a computable general equilibrium model. We find the aggregate impacts of a $25/ton carbon tax on the SRB economy are likely to be negative but modest—an approximately one-third of 1% reduction in Gross Regi...
The Ohio River Navigation Investment Model (ORNIM) estimates the benefits of navigation improvements and balances those estimated benefits against the estimated costs of improvements. The economic assumptions within ORNIM are identified; the rationale for these assumptions is provided; and how these assumptions alter the estimates of inland-water n...
In this study I model vehicle-fuel expenditure allocation in multi-vehicle households based on the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS).Using data from surveys conducted by the Energy Information Administration in 1988, 1991 and 1994, I estimate the AIDS model, augmented with a comprehensive set of household and vehicle characteristics for households...
We present an analysis of the economic impacts of marketable permits for greenhouse gas reduction across industries and income groups in the United States. A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate permit markets under various assumptions about permit allocations, industry coverage, revenue recycling, sequestration, and the inclusi...
While much progress has been made in recent years in modeling the impacts of greenhouse gases on global climate and impacts of global climate change on regional climates, much less progress has been made in modeling economic impacts and responses to climate change, particularly at a regional level. This lack of progress is due, in large part, to th...
This paper provides an overview of the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) economy and of models that can be used to analyze how climate change will affect it. A regional input-output (I-O) table, downscaled from its national counterpart, provides insight into the extent of the MAR's internal inter-dependence, as well as its dependence on trade with the rest...
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and has high agro-terrorism potential because it can be easily turned into a weapon. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States has...
Findings from biofuel feedstock production assessments and projections of future supply are presented and discussed. The report aims to improve capabilities to assess the degree to which imported biofuel could contribute to meeting future U.S. targets to reduce dependence on imported oil. The study scope was focused to meet time and resource requir...
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Pennsylvania State University, 2000. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 193-200). Photocopy.
