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Skills and Expertise
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August 1974 - December 2012
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Publications (119)
Letter in response toWIlson, B. M., Harris, C. R., & Wixted, J. T. (2020). Science is not a signal detection problem. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1914237117
One of the most difficult and important decisions in power analysis involves specifying an effect size. Researchers frequently employ definitions of small, medium, and large that were proposed by Jacob Cohen. These definitions are problematic for two reasons. First, they are arbitrary, based on non-scientific criteria. Second, they are inconsistent...
Multicollinearity is irrelevant to the search for moderator variables, contrary to the implications of Iacobucci, Schneider, Popovich, and Bakamitsos (Behavior Research Methods, 2016, this issue). Multicollinearity is like the red herring in a mystery novel that distracts the statistical detective from the pursuit of a true moderator relationship....
Considerable prior statistical work has criticized replacing a continuously measured variable in a general linear model with a dichotomy based on a median split of that variable. Iacobucci, Posovac, Kardes, Schneider, and Popovich (this issue) defend the practice of “median splits” using both conceptual arguments and simulations. We dispute their c...
Considerable prior statistical work has criticized replacing a continuously measured variable in a general linear model with a dichotomy based on a median split of that variable. Iacobucci, Posovac, Kardes, Schneider, and Popovich (2015-in this issue) defend the practice of “median splits” using both conceptual arguments and simulations. We dispute...
Signal detection theory (SDT) was developed to analyze the behavior of a single judge but also can be used to analyze decisions made by organizations or other social systems. SDT quantifies the ability to distinguish between signal and noise by separating accuracy of the detection system from response bias—the propensity to over-warn (too many fals...
This indispensable sourcebook covers conceptual and practical issues in research design in the field of social and personality psychology. Key experts address specific methods and areas of research, contributing to a comprehensive overview of contemporary practice. This updated and expanded second edition offers current commentary on social and per...
This study examines the relationship between focused-stimulation thresholds, electrode positions, and speech understanding in deaf subjects treated with a cochlear implant (CI). Focused stimulation is more selective than monopolar stimulation, which excites broad regions of the cochlea, so may be more sensitive as a probe of neural survival pattern...
It is common for authors discovering a significant interaction of a measured variable X with a manipulated variable Z to examine simple effects of Z at different levels of X. These “spotlight” tests are often misunderstood even in the simplest cases, and it appears that consumer researchers are unsure how to extend them to more complex designs. We...
Researchers confronting their own data often find those data to be more unruly, ill-mannered, and irascible than the well-behaved, cooperative data found in textbook examples. Irascible data that slap us in the face at least get our attention. More dangerous are those stealthy, sinister observations that can go undetected and yet have a disproporti...
The authors review research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences involving binary events with a focus on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include random devices, births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others. After discussing existing theories of sequence judgments, the...
Moderated multiple regression models allow the simple relationship between the dependent variable and an independent variable to depend on the level of another independent variable. The moderated relationship, often referred to as the interaction, is modeled by including a product term as an additional independent variable. Moderated relationships...
This completely rewritten classic text features many new examples, insights, and topics including mediational, categorical, and multilevel models. Substantially reorganized, this edition provides a briefer, more streamlined examination of data analysis. Noted for its model comparison approach and unified framework based on the general linear model,...
In the age of the Internet and easy access to almost infinite information, the problem of information overload among consumers is bound to become of great importance to marketers. By means of simulations we show that this ‘tyranny of choice’ is avoidable. Consumers can neglect most product information and yet make good choices, so long as either th...
Two studies examine the attraction effect—an inconsistent choice behavior typically observed when consumers are presented with two products (target and competitor), both good for different reasons, and a worse “decoy”—in the context of online consumer decisions with different product displays (animated or static). The experiments, with different pa...
This study analyzes the effectiveness of a mass-media radon information and testing campaign conducted in the Washington, D.C. area in the winter of 1988. Although an impressive number of test kits (approximately 100,000) were sold, the ultimate mitigation rates resulting from the campaign were extremely low. Analyses show that low mitigation rates...
Health risk beliefs of homeowners near a landfill site were assessed in a survey and compared to expert judgments of the health risks of living near the site. A bimodal distribution of health risk beliefs suggested sharp disagreement between the experts and at least some of the residents. Correlates of high risk beliefs included perception of odor...
This paper improves upon previous attempts to predict loss of life (LOL) from severe flooding events. An expression for LOL in terms of warning time (WT), the size of the population at risk (PAR), and the forcefulness of the flood waters (Force) is derived from the historical record of dam failures and flash flood cases via logistic regression. The...
This research documents the long term impacts of delayed cleanup on property values in communities neighboring prominent Superfund sites. The research examines the sale prices of nearly 34,000 homes near sites in three metropolitan areas for up to a 30-year period. To our knowledge, no other property value studies have examined sites in multiple ar...
Omnibus tests with multiple degrees of freedom test relatively vague questions whereas most hypotheses that we derive from our theoretical models make quite precise predictions. In order to respond to this level of precision, we suggest to test specific contrasts rather than to perform omnibus tests. Two conditions have to be satisfied before one c...
This article is a primer on issues in designing, testing, and interpreting interaction or moderator effects in research on family psychology. The first section focuses on procedures for testing and interpreting simple effects and interactions, as well as common errors in testing moderators (e.g., testing differences among subgroup correlations, omi...
The use of contrasts in data analysis : How to test specific hypotheses in psychological research
Omnibus tests with multiple degrees of freedom test relatively vague questions whereas most hypotheses that we derive from our theoretical models make quite precise predictions. In order to respond to this level of precision, we suggest to test specifi...
Individual differences in compensatory and non-compensatory choice processes remain an unresolved issue for decision process researchers. This study investigates the stability and nature of individual differences in choice processes when individuals adapt to changes in the structure of the choice environment, namely the correlation among the choice...
Marketing researchers frequently split (dichotomize) continuous predictor variables into two groups, such as with a median split, before performing data analysis. The practice is prevalent but its effects are not well understood. In this paper, we present historic results on the effects of dichotomization of normal predictor variables rederived in...
Dans les modèles de régression multiple avec variable modératrice, la relation simple entre la variable dépendante et une variable indépendante peut dépendre du niveau d'une autre variable indépendante. La relation modérée, qui traduit souvent une interaction, est modélisée par l'introduction d'un produit en tant que variable indépendante supplémen...
Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance tree...
Analyses designed to detect mediation and moderation of treatment effects are increasingly prevalent in research in psychology. The mediation question concerns the processes that produce a treatment effect. The moderation question concerns factors that affect the magnitude of that effect. Although analytic procedures have been reasonably well worke...
Analyses designed to detect mediation and moderation of treatment effects are increasingly prevalent in research in psychology. The mediation question concerns the processes that produce a treatment effect. The moderation question concerns factors that affect the magnitude of that effect. Although analytic procedures have been reasonably well worke...
Can hypothetical questions reveal true values? An examination of thelaboratory experimental literature examining contingent valuation (CV)lends some support for using open-ended hypothetical willingness to payquestions. However, experimental studies examining dichotomous choicehave found that hypothetical answers overstate demand. Consistent withth...
Comments on the article by L. Wilkinson & the Task Force on Statistical Inference (TFSI) (see record
1999-03403-008) which was meant to initiate discussion in the field about changes in current practices of data analysis and reporting. The report was concerned with the use of statistical methods only and is not meant as an assessment of research m...
This paper argues that there is a social norm of tax compliance that affects individual reporting decisions and that can be affected by voting on different aspects of the fiscal system. Experimental results are consistent with a central role for social norms. Individual compliance after a vote is decidedly different from prevote compliance under th...
In this paper we argue that there is a social norm of tax compliance that affects individual reporting decisions and that can be affected by government institutions. We use experimental methods tu test these notions. Our experimental design captures the essential features of the fiscal and voting systems present in many countries: individuals recei...
This paper reports on three laboratory experiments designed to investigate the roles of decision costs and rewards on the accuracy of economic decisions. The experimental vehicle is a purchase decision employing the Becker-DeGroot-Marshak (BDM) mechanism. The first experiment verifies the incentive-compatibility of the BDM in a pure induced-value s...
Embedding, the notion that respondents to contingent valuation (CV) questions often value more than the researcher intends, has engendered extreme views. These range from the suggestion that embedding is so severe that it renders CV useless to the assertion that embedding can be eliminated by providing sufficient information in a survey. This paper...
Potential double counting across generations has led some opponents of the contingent valuation method to claim that non-use values should be eliminated from benefit estimates. This paper shows both theoretically and empirically that this conclusion is not warranted. Depending on individuals' perception of the feasibility of intergenerational trans...
Psychologists often do not consider the optimality of their research designs. However, increasing costs of using inefficient designs requires psychologists to adopt more efficient designs with many factor levels and equal allocations of observations are often inefficient for the specific questions most psychologists want to answer. Happenstance all...
Psychologists often do not consider the optimality of their research designs. However, increasing costs of using inefficient designs requires psychologists to adopt more efficient designs and to use more powerful analysis strategies. Common designs with many factor levels and equal allocations of observations are often inefficient for the specific...
"This study develops a methodology that allows migration decision-making to be studied in a laboratory experimental setting. Moreover, this methodology permits an examination of the importance of natural and man-made hazards in migration decisions--factors that have not been extensively studied as determinants of migration. The specific application...
In contrast to the situation when an independent or treatment variable varies between subjects, procedures for testing treatment by covariate interactions are not commonly understood when the treatment varies within subjects. The purpose of this article is to identify analytic approaches that test such interactions. Two design scenarios are discuss...
In contrast to the situation when an independent or treatment variable varies between subjects, procedures for testing treatment by covariate interactions are not commonly understood when the treatment varies within subjects. The purpose of this article is to identify analytic approaches that test such interactions. Two design scenarios are discuss...
Expected utility (EU) theory is used to derive a simple normative model for ranking endangered species preservation programs. In contrast to the current priority system, the EU model requires that potential increases in survival probabilities be combined with utility attributes (e.g., uniqueness) multiplicatively. Five studies assessed the descript...
Contents Page No. Introduction 4 The What and Why of Measurement 4 Axiomatic or Representational Measurement 8 Psychometric Measurement 9 Axiomatic Versus Psychometric Measurement 11 Alternatives to Numeric Scales 13 Geometric Representations 13 Multidimensional Geometric Representations 14 Non-Geometric Representations 15 Axiomatic Measurement 18...
Although interaction effects are frequently found in experimental studies, field researchers report considerable difficulty in finding theorized moderator effects. Previous discussions of this discrepancy have considered responsible factors including differences in measurement error and use of nonlinear scales. In this article we demonstrate that t...
Two insurance experiments using real-money consequences and multiple rounds to provide experience are described. In the first experiment, subjects bid for insurance to prevent a fixed loss of $4 at probabilities ranging from .01 to .9. Mean bids were near expected value except at the lowest probability of .01, for which a very bimodal distribution...
Numerous studies have demonstrated that theoretically equivalent measures of preference, such as choices and prices, can lead to systematically different preference orderings, known as preference reversals. Two major causes of preference reversals are the compatibility effect and the prominence effect. The present studies demonstrate that the combi...
The authors outline how potentially coherent, consistent economic values can be determined by use of contingent valuation measurement (CVM). They use as an example three different CV studies to estimate nonuse values for groundwater. The authors also point out that rapidly changing political preferences can complicate the issues. They feel that the...
Laboratory experiments have provided useful information about how people behave in risky situations. In particular, such experiments have allowed for the observation of many deviations from the predictions of expected utility theory. There is some dispute, however, over the effect of the use of real versus hypothetical money in these experiments an...
Why do people pay taxes when they have an opportunity, even an incentive, to evade? The experimental results in this paper suggest that tax compliance occurs because some individuals overweight the low probability of audit, although such overweighting is not universal. The results also indicate that compliance does not occur simply because individu...
Recent experimental evidence has pro- vided strong support for Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's (1979) notion of loss aversion: that losses are valued more highly than gains. This experimental evidence (see e.g., Jack L. Knetsch and John A. Sinden, 1984; Donald L. Coursey et al., 1987; Knetsch, 1989; Kahneman et al., 1990) sug- gests that the dis...
A prominent television station developed a special series of newscasts and public service announcements about radon. This was combined with their advertising of the availability of reduced-price radon test kits in a local supermarket chain. The large number of test kits sold was a success from a marketing perspective, but not from a public health p...
Previous assessments of individuals' values for various contraceptive consequences have employed one of four methodologies: free elicitation, direct ratings, multiple regression, or factor analysis. All four methodologies are flawed because they produce group rather than individual values, relying on rating scales, and fail to incorporate informati...
A number of studies (see, e.g., Kahneman & Tversky, 1984; Thaler, 1985; and Tversky & Kahneman, 1981) have demonstrated that the way an individual frames or represents a choice problem can have important effects on the choices made. Machina (1987) argues that such framing effects remain one of the major unsolved problems of choice under uncertainty...
Methodological problems encountered in implementing conjoint analysis include (1) the impractically large set of multiattribute
choice alternatives created by the factorial combination of more than a few attributes, (2) the hypothetical nature of the
alternatives in the choice set, and (3) the assumption that each individual’s preferences can be de...
It has been asserted that (I) tests of expectancy-value models require within-persons analyses and that (2) within-persons analyses yield better predictions of behavioral tendencies than do across-persons analyses. The first assertion is correct; the second is not. Justification for within-persons tests of expectancy-value models must be made on th...
Under Title III of SARA, companies must provide information about chemicals that they manufacture, store, or process. Communities will use data about potential accidental releases to develop local emergency plans. Data about routine chemical releases will be made available to the public on a computer data base. Simply having such data available doe...
This paper has three purposes: (1) to develop a methodology based on axiomatic conjoint measure ment to accompany the McClelland (1980) fertility de cision-making model; (2) to demonstrate the use of the methodology by applying it to the study of a specific fertility-related behavior (contraceptive choice); and (3) to evaluate the usefulness and va...
The present research examined the hypothesis that in contrast to theory and research indicating that tangible reward decreases subsequent interest in enjoyable academic activities, rewards are perceived by adults as effective techniques to maximize long- and short-term subsequent interest for academic tasks of both high and low initial interest lev...
The present research examined the hypothesis that in contrast to theory and research indicating that tangible reward decreases subsequent interest in enjoyable academic activities, rewards are perceived by adults as effective techniques to maximize long- and short-term subsequent interest for academic tasks of both high and low initial interest lev...
Winnowing process models of multiattribute choice in which alternatives are successively eliminated in stages based on partial information predict differential memory for minor attributes as a function of an alternative's relative desirability. This prediction, which differs from the results of judgment studies finding little or no relationship bet...
Eight methods for estimating creatinine clearance (CLcr) were compared in 65 men with serum creatinine concentrations (SCr) less than or equal to 1.5 mg/dL (group 1) and 65 men with SCr greater than 1.5 mg/dL (group 2). All patients had SCr values that did not fluctuate by more than +/- 10% for two weeks before and two weeks after measurement of CL...
A decision-making framework based on the models of personal decision making developed by psychologists and economists and a methodology based on axiomatic conjoint measurement are used to explore individuals' beliefs and values regarding contraceptive sterilization. Particular emphasis is given to demonstrating a. that there exist individual differ...
There are serious difficulties in using standard psychometric techniques for validating professional licensing examinations such as medical and bar examinations against external criteria of job performance. Measures of internal consistency can be used to detect one or a few components of an examination that may be culturally biased if the entire te...
Proponents of numerical conjoint measurement gen erally assume that the technique's goodness-of-fit mea sure will detect an inappropriate composition rule or the presence of random response error. In this paper a number of hypothetical and real preference rank order ings are analyzed using both axiomatic conjoint mea surement and numerical conjoint...
The stopping rule measure of sex preferences represents a combination of psychological measures of preference and behavioral intentions. This study of 172 college students demonstrates that the stopping rule measure is a useful and practical method of measuring sex preferences. The results further indicate that parity progression ratio measures inh...
An axiomatization is provided for the weighted linear model for the case defined by three conditions; (a) two and only two attributes; (b) sparse, finite alternatives and attribute levels; and (c) constant attribute-level scale values across all orderings. Theorems outlining necessary conditions, sufficient conditions, and uniqueness for this case...
Utility and equity are identified as superordinate values determining the parameters of the distribution of objects or events on which other values are placed. A trade-off exists between maximizing total utility and guaranteeing complete equity. Three empirical studies that included 102 graduate students in public administration demonstrated striki...
Couples or individuals attempting to make reasoned decisions on fertility face the classic problem of decision-making under uncertainty. A framework has been devised for conceptualising the process whereby a choice is made among several possible behaviours. Four major stages - judgement, valuation, integration and decision - are included. However,...
The theoretical possibility that measures of preferred family size generate good aggregate but poor individual fertility predictions because they ignore the influence of family sex composition preferences is explored with data from 72 college students. Even given perfect adherence of later behavior to stated stopping rules, only 66 percent of the s...
After a late entry into the field of population and environmental issues psychologists have begun rushing to the study of population and environmental psychology. Psychologists new to the field of population issues brought theories methods and procedures developed in other contexts and applied them to fertility and environmental subjects even thoug...
