Ganna Pogrebna

The Alan Turing Institute

The “preference reversal phenomenon,” a systematic disparity between people’s valuations and choices, poses challenges for theory and policy. Using a very general formulation of probabilistic preferences, we show that the phenomenon is not mainly due to intransitive choice. We find a high degree of regularity within choice tasks and also within val...

This paper is an attempt to understand the effects of leaders on organizational performance. We argue for an ‘expert leader’ model of leadership. We differentiate between four kinds of leaders according to their level of inherent knowledge and industry experience. After controlling for confounding variables, teams led by leaders with extensive know...

This paper considers the implications for Supply Chain Management (SCM) from the development of the Internet of Things (IoT) or Internet Connected Objects (ICO). We focus on opportunities and challenges stemming from consumption data that comes from ICO, and on how this data can be mapped onto strategic choices of product variety. We develop a simp...

We use a laboratory experiment to examine whether and to what extent other-regarding preferences (efficiency, inequality aversion and maximin concerns) of team managers influence their management style in choice under risk. We find that managers who prefer efficiency are more likely to exercise an autocratic management style by ignoring preferences...

We select a menu of seven popular decision theories and embed each theory in five models of stochastic choice, including tremble, Fechner and random utility model. We find that the estimated parameters of decision theories differ significantly when theories are combined with different models. Depending on the selected model of stochastic choice we...

Understanding and modelling human behaviour is one of the major tasks facing industry and academia of the future. This task is especially important when we consider interactions between humans and technology. Decision support systems, suggestion systems, automation, etc.-all these technologically intense aspects of human life require accurate predi...

Human wellbeing in the urban context is a complex concept, which not only depends on many different factors (including those related to geographical location, socio-economical standing of the area, safety, etc.). It has also been widely recognized that people often live in environments , which fail to maximize their potential. Previous literature i...

COVID-19 has shown a relatively low case fatality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms. However, the severity of the disease among the elderly as well as in individuals with underlying health conditions has caused significant mortality rates worldwide. Understanding this varia...

After the European Union’s new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) became applicable in May 2018, concerns about the legal compliance of public blockchain systems with rights guaranteed by GDPR have emerged, e.g., on the "right to be forgotten". In order to better understand how the blockchain sector sees the challenges raised by GDPR and how...

COVID-19 has shown a relatively low mortality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms, while the severity of the disease among individuals with underlying health conditions has caused signiffcant mortality rates worldwide. Understanding these differences in mortality amongst diff...

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19 has shown a relatively low case fatality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms. However, the severity of the disease among the elderly as well as in individuals with underlying health conditions has caused significant mortality rates worldwide. Understandi...

Frequent handwashing with soap for at least 20 seconds at a time is widely advised as one of the preventive measures against COVID-19. Yet, while it is possible to quickly influence individual hygiene behavior in the short term, in the long run, changing handwashing culture in a particular country as well as globally is a much more difficult task....

Improving productivity in the entertainment industry is a very challenging task as it heavily depends on generating attractive content for the consumers. The consumer-centric design (putting the consumers at the centre of the content development and production) focuses on ways in which businesses can design customized services and products which ac...

This paper proposes a new framework of Leadership as a Medium of Corporate Social Identity (LeaM-CSI) linking cultural values at a state level with corporate diversity and inclusivity. In this framework, leadership, through communication of cultural values, increases the salience of these values at a corporate level, increasing the corporate social...

Commons dilemma is one of the most robust regularities of behavioral economics, referring to a situation when multiple parties tend to decrease or damage the public good or resource by free-riding on others' responsibility to preserve it. Using data science methodology, this paper considers how the number of businesses operating in a particular urb...

Contemporary cyberattacks infrequently rely on sophisticated technology. Instead, adversaries resort to the inventive use of social engineering. With the rise of smart cities, cybersecurity threats are no longer an individual risk or a private sector problem. In the 21 st century, adversaries target infrastructure and, especially, urban infrastruct...

This paper develops a new framework linking cross-cultural human values, regulation, and governance in the area of cybersecurity. Cyber space is currently transitioning from a laissez-faire into a regulated area. Yet, there is a significant heterogeneity in terms of the strength of commitment in different states to regulation and governance of digi...

Recent advances in wellbeing research demonstrate robust evidence that subjective wellbeing is U-shaped throughout human life. Furthermore, there is some evidence that this U-shaped trend may have evolutionary origins as apes have been found to exhibit the same patterns as humans. This paper considers time perceptions as a possible explanation for...

A useful and complementary approach to understand what drives corporate leaders to choose certain corporate governance practices is to look beyond the individual traits and characteristics of the leader, examining the effect of the elements of the institutional environment on managerial decisions. Drawing on the contextual approach to leadership an...

In this chapter we present our topology of cyberthreats, which we call the Periodic Table of Cyberthreats. We provide a brief history of cyberthreats and cybercrimes, complementing our narrative with the real-world examples. We conclude that the majority of threats, observed today, have existed for decades and what we seem to encounter now are new...

In this chapter we consider how business goals may interfer with and impact on the way in which cyberdefense systems are designed within organizations. We discuss major issues associated with the trade-off between business and security priorities. We then offer a practical guide explaining how business goals can be harmonized with cybersecurity tas...

In this chapter we analyze how information about threats, vulnerabilities, and risks in cyberspaces are communicated within and between businesses. We identify major problems and barriers in risk communication and consider information sharing failures in detail. We show how behavioral science methodology can help alleviate or even eliminate these p...

In this chapter, we systematize best cyberdefense practices, which came out of our discussions with expert researchers and practitioners. These practices are conveniently partitioned into twelve principles of safe places. Potential benefits associated with applying each principle to business cybersecurity systems are discussed.

Even though this book does not intend to concentrate on social and ethical aspects of cybersecurity, in this chapter we provide a brief overview of the cyber-ethical landscape and discuss most important and relevant issues, which may be of interest to businesses. We pay particular attention to the link between human culture, human values, and cyber...

This chapter goes beyond the usual understanding of cyberthreats and considers how humans perceive these threats. We start by listing 5 major misconceptions, which often cloud people’s ability to adequately assess cyber risks. We also present our Psycho-technological Matrix of Cybersecurity Threats and conclude that social engineering is a necessar...

This chapter summarizes views, opinions, and ideas of leading researchers and practitioners in cybersecurity, which they shared with our research team during the interviews. Based on these views, we suggest ways in which businesses can plan, build, and manage secure spaces in the digital domain. Recommendations are illustrated by examples and case...

In this chapter we analyze the motivation of cybercriminals by systematizing empirical evidence from hackers’ direct speech. We conjecture that while the hackers of the past were primarily motivated by intellectual curiosity, at the beginning of the 21st century the goals of contemporary cybercriminals shifted toward obtaining financial benefits. W...

In this chapter we discuss the way in which businesses currently address existing cybersecurity risks. Specifically, we distinguish between the Canvas approach (“patching with frameworks and architectures”), the Technology-driven approach (“patching with technology”) and the Human-centered approach (“patching with people”). We discuss the pros and...

Uncertainty and ways in which businesses can reduce it in order to build efficient cyberdefense systems is the main focus of this chapter. We consider whether and to what extent existing risk-assessment and risk-management tools can be employed to detect contemporary cybersecurity risks. We conclude that current methodologies are not always adequat...

This chapter concludes with a general discussion. Trust and ways in which trust can be enhanced within organizations lie at the core of successful cybersecurity solutions. It is also clear that cyberdefense mechanisms of the future should take into account both technical and behavioral aspects, as well as embrace principles of multi-layered securit...

This chapter considers characteristics of cyberthreats which businesses are likely to face in the future from traditional phishing to quantum computing attacks. By drawing a parallel between creative industries and cybercrime, we analyze how cybersecurity threats, vulnerabilities, and risks will change in the near as well as in the distant future....

In this chapter, we explore how algorithmic behavioral science can contribute to the cybersecurity debate. We discuss possible cybersecurity solutions of the future and show that decision-theoretic modeling can help practitioners identify potential targets as well as attribute cybercrimes to adversaries. We also demonstrate how behavioral segmentat...

This book is a means to diagnose, anticipate and address new cyber risks and vulnerabilities while building a secure digital environment inside and around businesses. It empowers decision makers to apply a human-centred vision and a behavioral approach to cyber security problems in order to detect risks and effectively communicate them. The authors...

We study contestability in charity markets where non-commercial, not-for-profit providers supply a homogeneous collective good through increasing-returns-to-scale technologies. Unlike in the case of for-profit competition, the absence of price-based sales contracts for charities means that fixed costs can translate into entry barriers, protecting t...

The transitivity axiom is common to nearly all descriptive and normative utility theories of choice under risk. Contrary to both intuition and common assumption, the little-known ’Steinhaus-Trybula paradox’ shows the relation ’stochastically greater than’ will not always be transitive, in contradiction of Weak Stochastic Transitivity. We bespoke-de...

Much of business literature addresses the issues of consumer-centric design: how can businesses design customized services and products which accurately reflect consumer preferences? This paper uses data science natural language processing methodology to explore whether and to what extent emotions shape consumer preferences for media and entertainm...

This is an infographic explaining the new GDPR regulation in the European Union. Feel free to use or share. For high resolution file, contact me directly.

This paper proposes a new Cyber Domain-Specific Risk Taking (CyberDoSpeRT) scale which aims to measure individual risk taking and risk perception towards cyber risks across 5 different dimensions. To test and validate the scale, we recruit representative samples of populations from two countries (US and UK). We show that the US population tends to...

There is a market for successful distribution of television content using a Windowing strategy. This article investigates if a strategy where content is made available to consumers through different channels over time, a “Windowing” business models, is appropriate for releasing television programs. By initially exposing consumers to a controlled qu...

Using ultrasound scan data from paediatric hospitals, and the exogenous ‘shock’ of learning the gender of an unborn baby, the paper documents the first causal evidence that offspring gender affects adult risk-aversion. On a standard Holt-Laury criterion, parents of daughters, whether unborn or recently born, become almost twice as risk-averse as pa...

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a strategy where content is made available to consumers through different channels over time, named Windowing business models, may be appropriate for releasing television programmes. By initially exposing consumers to a controlled quantity of free content greater value can be captured at later sta...

Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and...

Being told the sex of your unborn child is a major exogenous 'shock'. In the first study of its kind, we collect before-and-after data from hospital wards. We test for the causal effects of learning child gender upon people's degree of risk-aversion. Using a standard Holt-Laury criterion, the parents of daughters, whether unborn or recently born, a...

Much uncertainty in life relates to the behaviour of others in interactive environments. This article tests some implications of subjective expected utility theory (Savage, 1954) in an experimental strategic setting where there is uncertainty about the actions of other players. In this environment, a large majority of our participants violate subje...

Much uncertainty in life relates to the behaviour of others in interactive environments. This article tests some implications of subjective expected utility theory (Savage, 1954) in an experimental strategic setting where there is uncertainty about the actions of other players. In this environment, a large majority of our participants violate subje...

The demographics and landscape of cities are changing rapidly, and there is an emphasis to better understand the factors which influence citizen happiness in order to design smarter urban systems. Few studies have attempted to understand how large-scale sentiment maps to urban human geography. Inferring sentiment from social media data is one such...

Smart cities are collecting and producing massive amount of data from various data sources such as local weather stations, LIDAR data, mobile phones sensors, Internet of Things (IoT) etc. To use such large volume of data for potential benefits, it is important to store and analyse data using efficient and effective big data algorithms. However, thi...

The transitivity axiom is common to nearly all descriptive and normative utility theories of choice under risk. Contrary to both intuition and common assumption, the little-known 'Steinhaus-Trybula paradox' shows the relation 'stochastically greater than' will not always be transitive, in contradiction of Weak Stochastic Transitivity. We bespoke-de...

Cities are producing and collecting massive amount of data from various sources such as transportation network, energy sector, smart homes, tax records, surveys, LIDAR data, mobile phones sensors etc. All of the aforementioned data, when connected via the Internet, fall under the Internet of Things (IoT) category. To use such a large volume of data...

In recent years, urban areas have seen a rapid growth in the Big Personal Data generation at the individual citizen, community, and city levels. This, in turn, led to the increase in demand for new pricing mechanisms governing the exchange of Big Personal Data. This paper is framed in the context of how new data platforms, banks, and pricing mechan...

This paper proposes a new approach to servitization and business models by understanding behavioural aspects of human interactions with technology, specifically, with “smart” devices, connected devices, autonomous systems, and internet of things (IoT) through understanding and interacting with data which these devices and systems generate. Proposed...

We propose a broad framework for individual choice under risk which can accommodate many stochastic formulations of various deterministic theories. Using this framework to guide an experimental design, we show that most individuals’ departures from the independence axiom cannot be explained by adding a ‘random noise’ term to a deterministic ‘core’...

Copyright and reuse: The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work of researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. Copyright © and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and p...

Copyright and reuse: The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work of researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. Copyright © and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and p...

'Smart' homes with “smart” things working together in the smart city as one coherent and dynamic system to help individuals make "smarter" decisions. This paper presents multi-disciplinary research from the HAT project and its extension, the HARRIET project, on the creation of the first ever Multi-sided Market Platform for the exchange of data enab...

One of the main peculiarities of transition economies is financial and economic destabilization. During the process of transition the risk reaches a qualitatively new level and the economic system becomes fundamentally uncertain. Like many other Post- socialist countries, the Ukraine started building up a market infrastructure after the decline of...

We use a sequential voluntary contribution game to compare the relative impact of a first-mover’s non-binding announcement versus binding commitment on cooperation. We find that a non-binding announcement and a binding commitment increase individual contributions to a similar extent. Since announced contributions systematically exceed commitments,...

Investors who are more willing to accept risks when evaluating their investments less frequently are said to exhibit myopic loss aversion (MLA). Several recent experimental studies found that, on average, subjects bet significantly higher amounts on a risky lottery when they observe only a cumulative outcome of several realizations of the lottery (...

In the television show Deal or No Deal, a contestant is endowed with a sealed box containing a monetary prize between one cent and half a million euros. In the course of the show, the contestant is offered to exchange her box for another sealed box with the same distribution of possible monetary prizes inside. This offers a unique natural experimen...

In this paper we reexamine several experimental papers on myopic loss aversion by analyzing individual rather than aggregate choice patterns. We find that the behavior of the majority of subjects is inconsistent with the hypothesis of myopic loss aversion.

This paper compares the effects of two leadership styles: leading by pre-game communication and leading by example using an iterated voluntary contribution game. We find that pre-game communication increases the level of individual contributions in the game and has essentially the same impact on the level of individual contributions as leading by e...

This paper studies coordination in a multi-stage elimination tournament with large monetary incentives and a diversified subject pool drawn from the adult British population. In the tournament, members of an ad hoc team earn money by answering general knowledge questions and then eliminate one contestant by plurality voting without prior communicat...

We use a laboratory experiment to examine whether and to what extent other-regarding preferences of team leaders influence their leadership style in choice under risk. We find that leaders who prefer efficiency or report high levels of selfishness are more likely to exercise an autocratic leadership style by ignoring preferences of the other team m...

In a competitive environment players often face uncertainty about the relative strength of their opponents. This paper considers a winner-take-all rent-seeking contest between two players with different costs of effort. Costs of effort are private knowledge, however, players have an opportunity to learn the opponent's type by engaging in either pri...

In the television show Affari Tuoi contestants face decision problems with large monetary payoffs and have an opportunity to seek advice from the audience. It appears that this advice does not have a significant impact on the decisions of contestants.

In the television show Deal or No Deal a contestant is endowed with a sealed box, which potentially contains a large monetary prize. In the course of the show the contestant learns more information about the distribution of possible monetary prizes inside her box. Consider two groups of contestants, who learned that the chances of their boxes conta...

Economic research offers two traditional ways of analyzing decision making under risk. One option is to compare the goodness of fit of different decision theories using the same model of stochastic choice. An alternative way is to vary models of stochastic choice combining them with only one or two decision theories. This paper proposes to look at...

When the performance of a risky asset is frequently assessed, the probability of detecting a loss is high, which averts the loss averse investors. This effect is known as myopic loss aversion (MLA). This paper reexamines several recent experimental studies documenting the existence of MLA. A closer look at the experimental data reveals that the eff...

This paper uses data from a natural experiment to compare two institutions: a simple English auction and bilateral bargaining. It appears that bilateral bargaining may be more profitable for the seller. Results also suggest no correlation between bargaining skills and an ability to make profit at the auction.

In the television show Affari Tuoi an individual faces a sequence of binary choices between a risky lottery with equiprobable prizes of up to half a million euros and a monetary amount for certain. The decisions of 114 show participants are used to test the predictions of ten decision theories: risk neutrality, expected utility theory, fanning-out...

In the television show Affari Tuoi a contestant is endowed with a sealed box containing a monetary prize between one cent and half a million euros. In the course of the show the contestant is offered to exchange her box for another sealed box with the same distribution of possible monetary prizes inside. This offers a unique natural laboratory for...

This paper uses a natural laboratory of The Weakest Link television show to conduct a test for overconfidence. In The Weakest Link contestants are heterogeneous in their ability to answer general knowledge questions, which determines their rank in an ad hoc group. Contestants frequently assess their relative performance in a competitive group and h...

In hierarchical organizations the role of a team leader often requires making decisions which do not necessarily coincide with the majority opinion of the team. However, these decisions are final and binding for all team members. We study experimentally why, and under which conditions, leaders resort to such decisions. In our experiment, teams are...