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222
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Introduction
Skills and Expertise
Additional affiliations
June 2020 - May 2021
University of Bergamo
Position
- Post-doctoral research fellow
March 2019 - July 2019
March 2018 - February 2019
Publications
Publications (38)
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe, ongoing, novel pandemic that emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of January 21, 2021, the virus had infected approximately 100 million people, causing over 2 million deaths. This article analyzed several time series forecasting methods to predict the spread of COVID-19 during the pandemic's...
This paper investigates the long-run effect of a wide set of labor market institutions (LMIs) and macroeconomic variables on aggregate unemployment for a panel of 22 European countries over the period 1990-2019. First-difference feasible generalized least squares model, Prais-Winsten regression with panel-corrected standard errors, two-step general...
The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat to all of us. It has caused an unprecedented shock to the world’s economy, and it has interrupted the lives and livelihood of millions of people. In the last two years, a large body of literature has attempted to forecast the main dimensions of the COVID-19 outbreak using a wide set of models. In this paper...
This paper investigates the air quality in 107 Italian provinces in the period 2014-2019 and the association between exposure to nine outdoor air pollutants and the COVID-19 spread and related mortality in the same areas. The methods used were negative binomial (NB) regression, ordinary least squares (OLS) model, and spatial autoregressive (SAR) mo...
The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat to all of us. It has caused an unprecedented shock to the world's economy, and it has interrupted the lives and livelihood of millions of people. In the last two years, a large body of literature has attempted to forecast the main dimensions of the COVID-19 outbreak using a wide set of models. In this paper...
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically changed every aspect of people’s lives around the world over the past year and a half. Although the global vaccination campaign is progressing worldwide, new variants of COVID-19 have emerged, driving many countries into a fourth wave of COVID-19 contagion. This paper investigates the air quality...
Da cosa dipende il gap di produttività fra paesi core e paesi periferici nell’Eurozona? L’articolo propone una rivisitazione dell’equazione della produttività di Paolo Sylos Labini per dar conto del fenomeno della crescita vincolata dalla bilancia dei pagamenti messo in luce da Anthony Thirlwall. L’analisi cerca di verificare se gli squilibri comme...
Now Published in the European Journal of Health Economics:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10198-021-01347-4.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that has emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of October 13, the outbreak has spread rapidly across the world, affecting over 38 million people, and c...
The Italian government has been one of the most responsive to COVID-19 emergency, through the adoption of quick and increasingly stringent measures to contain the outbreak. Despite this, Italy has suffered a huge human and social cost, especially in Lombardy. The aim of this paper is dual: i) first, to investigate the reasons of the case fatality r...
The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe respiratory infection that officially occurred in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. In late February, the disease began to spread quickly across the world, causing serious health, social, and economic emergencies. This paper aims to forecast the short to medium-term incidence of COVID-19 epidemic t...
The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe respiratory infection that officially occurred in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. In late February, the disease began to spread quickly across the world, causing serious health, social, and economic emergencies. This paper aims to forecast the short to medium-term incidence of COVID-19 epidemic t...
Highlights:
• ARIMA models allow in an easy way to investigate COVID-2019 trends, which are nowadays of huge economic and social impact.
• These data may be used by the health authority to continuously monitor the epidemic and to better allocate the available resources.
• The results suggest that the epidemic spread inflection point, in term of...
http://www.ideas.org.my/brief-ideas-no-20-covid-19-and-the-mco-an-exit-strategy-for-malaysia/
IDEAS welcomes progress in combatting COVID-19 and encourages the government to develop an exit strategy for the eventual end to the Movement Control Order (MCO). In our latest paper written by IDEAS Senior Fellow, Carmelo Ferlito and and Gaetano Perone,...
Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that is spreading quickly across the world. Italy, that is widely considered one of the main epicenters of the pandemic, registers the highest COVID-2019 death rates and death toll in the world, to the present day. In this article I estimate an autoregressive integrated moving aver...
Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that is spreading quickly across the world. Italy, that is widely considered one of the main epicenters of the pandemic, has registered the highest COVID-2019 death rates and death toll in the world, to the present day. In this article I estimate an autoregressive integrated moving...
From the 1990s the Italian agribusiness sector is increasingly threatened by a new and dangerous phenomenon: organized crime in the agribusiness sector. The so-called “Agromafia” imposes its control throughout the whole agricultural supply chain, from production to retail, passing through the processing industry, transports and large-scale distribu...
The environmental sustainability is probably one of the most controversial topics of national policy agendas. The needs to combine economic growth and well-being, have forced governments to introduce tools for reducing CO2 emission and avoiding climate change. This paper aims to assess the effectiveness of these measures in the 1990-2014 period for...
Investighiamo il ruolo che la P2, nota loggia massonica clandestina italiana, ha avuto nelle vicende economiche del paese. Considerando tutte le imprese quotate sulla Borsa di Milano, analizziamo le interconnessioni fra le banche e le imprese infiltrate e non infiltrate dalla P2. I nostri risultati mostrano che nel periodo 1980-1981 le imprese infi...
The study of criminal behaviour from the point of view of economics is mostly
brought back to the canon of rationality. In this introduction to the special
issue on crime and economy, we explain why it can be appropriate to move
away from the extremely widespread vision that leads criminal actions to the
microeconomic approach and, in particular, t...
The paper has two main objectives. Firstly, we try to establish whether and to what extent 30-year of greater job insecurity and progressive dismantling process of workers’ rights in the Eurozone countries affected the functioning of the labor market, and secondly we try to verify whether change of institutional paradigm – amending the economic pol...
Dagli anni ’90 il settore agroalimentare italiano è minacciato da un inquietante fenomeno: la criminalità organizzata attiva nel settore ambientale. In questo articolo esaminiamo la relazione fra la pressione eco-criminale e l’indice dei prezzi al consumo degli alimenti e delle bevande analcoliche per le 20 regioni italiane e per 80 province. A liv...
Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function surely represents the cornerstone of the neoclassical theory. However, its good fit implies the respect for a series of unrealistic and increasingly restrictive hypothesis. So, this article attempts to summarize and to analyze the most important objections to Cobb-Douglas function raised by heterodox econo...
According to the neoclassical convergence theory i) relatively poorer economies tend to growth faster than the relatively richer ii) and all economies converge at the same growth rate in the long term. The article investigates the income convergence process and the results show substantial failure of the convergence dynamics.
Il volume raccoglie i percorsi di ricerca dei dottorandi iscritti al XXIX, XXX e XXXI ciclo del Dottorato di Ricerca in “Innovazione e Gestione delle Risorse Pubbliche”.
I cambiamenti in atto e gli ambiziosi sviluppi futuri che il settore pubblico sta perseguendo richiedono nuove forme di sviluppo e gestione delle risorse pubbliche, dei relativi me...
The leading position of Italy’s agro-food sector is threatened because of the Agromafia with the rise of organised crime in the sector. The article shows that criminal activities cause market distortion leading to an increase in prices and a loss of consumer buying power which depresses the economic cycle due to the fall in demand. The agro-food se...
Il volume raccoglie i percorsi di ricerca dei dottorandi iscritti al XXIX, XXX e XXXI ciclo del Dottorato di Ricerca in " Innovazione e Gestione delle Risorse Pubbliche ". I cambiamenti in atto e gli ambiziosi sviluppi futuri che il settore pubblico sta perseguendo richiedono nuove forme di sviluppo e gestione delle risorse pubbliche, dei relativi...
Many economists believe that the European economic crisis is mainly due to a systematic excess of public spending that has made public debt increase dramatically. The statistical analyses provided in this paper however show that the level of public debt prior to the outbreak of the crisis had no predictive function for the subsequent rise.
In difesa della sanità pubblica italiana. Un'indagine sui Paesi OCSE Da sempre il sistema sanitario italiano viene bistrattato e criticato per le sue (presunte e non) copiose sacche di inefficienza e per gli sprechi che albergano nella gestione delle amministrazioni ospedaliere pubbliche [1]. Diversi scandali hanno nel tempo minato la credibilità d...
L'articolo indaga sugli effetti diretti delle politiche di consolidamento dei bilanci pubblici (austerity) su tre fondamentali chiave dell'economia: rapporto debito/PIL, tasso di disoccupazione e reddito aggregato. In particolare, l'analisi si concentra su 38 medio/grandi economie mondiali, con un nota specifica sull'Europa.
L'articolo presenta un'analisi dettagliata delle dinamiche economiche di 20 paesi industrializzati nel periodo 2009-2013. Il panel scelto è suddiviso in due grandi gruppi: paesi in difficoltà dell'area Euro ed economie in ripresa esterne all'Eurozona. L'obiettivo è di determinare il peso delle politiche di austerità - attraverso un'adeguata compara...
Questions
Questions (6)
Dear, I have a model with several labor market institutions and i want to show (in a separate table) all the interaction effects between them.
My doubt is about the methodology: is more correct to add interaction terms one at time (progressively) to my baseline equation or have I to estimate a single baseline equation for each interaction term?
Basically, in a paper of mine I have investigated the relationship between crimes (extortions, contraband etc.) and some macroeconomic variables. The reviewer asked me to control for under reporting bias with Rule of Law, but I didn't understand what I have to do. For example, if I have to do OLS between Rule of law and data about crimes or other stuffs...
If possibile i need data from 1975 or 1980. Thank you very much for your help!!
And which are the most important environmental risk factors?...
I have written several thesis about it. In particular, I have got strong correlation between selling prices and exploitation and extortion rates (because they build a cartel that artificially increases the prices); at the same time, crime activities seem to reduce honest companies competitiveness.
My personal worries are about real wage share and public debt...
Projects
Projects (2)
The aim is to analyze and compare the forecast accuracy of different time series statistical methods, such as ARIMA, ETS, neural network, and hybrid models.
Il tema generale della ricerca è quello di indagare le cause principali della perniciosa divergenza economica strutturale in atto fra paesi “periferici” e paesi “centrali” dell’Eurozona, attraverso l’esegesi degli squilibri commerciali esteri, alla luce del modello di crescita post-keynesiano di Kaldor-Dixon-Thirlwall; nonché di esaminare il progressivo approfondimento dei gap di produttività fra le due macro ripartizioni territoriali, in relazione alle politiche di austerità fiscale e di flessibilità del mercato del lavoro.
