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Introduction
Gabriel Porcile holds a Master in Economics from UNICAMP (Brazil) and a PhD from the London School of Economics and Political Science (UK, Department of Economic History). He was Professor of Economics at the UFPR (Brazil) and since 2011 Economic Affairs Officer at UN-ECLAC. He was Director of ECLAC Office in Montevideo since February 2011 to July 2024. He was in different visiting researcher in the University of Columbia, New School for Social Research, University of Pisa and UDELAR (Uruguay).
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Publications
Publications (163)
Pasinetti’s work can enrich Structuralist analyses of unequal international development between ‘cores’ and ‘peripheries’. We develop this argument with the study of the economic dynamics from 1995 to 2020 of the main national economies in the EU’s core and peripheries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
First, we provide a methodological co...
El concepto de racionalidad por detrás de los modelos económicos es crucial para el tipo de resultados macroeconómicos que pueden generar. Para los historiadores económicos, el tema es de gran relevancia. El tipo de microfundamentos adoptado define en gran medida la utilidad del modelo para entender procesos históricos y el espacio de conversación...
This chapter discusses how the environmental dimension has been incorporated to and evolved within the Latin American Structuralist tradition. Firstly, it briefly examines the early contributions of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and some of its key intellectuals, like Raúl Prebisch, Celso Furtado and Aníbal Pin...
This paper studies the relationship between financial integration, external debt sustainability, and fiscal policy space in emerging and developing (EDE) countries. We do so by applying Pasinetti's "geometry of debt sustainability" to EDE countries and analysing how it is shaped by exposure to global financial cycles. Through the lenses of Pasinett...
This paper presents a set of growth and distribution models for open developing economies under different political economy regimes. These regimes give rise to different institutional frameworks which in turn shape macroeconomic outcomes. We focus on three cases: (1) a pure developmentalist state, (2) conflicting claims between workers and governme...
Sustainable development implies reducing the gap in GDP per capita between center and periphery, increasing equality and protecting the environment. In this paper, we present a simple model within the Structuralist tradition that combines these three dimensions of sustainable development. We define three rates of growth: the minimum required to red...
Los distintos capítulos del libro ofrecen, por una parte, una
perspectiva comparativa regional de los retos que una estrategia de
desarrollo basada, en gran medida, en una mayor apertura financiera
exterior y una mayor flexibilidad del tipo de cambio plantea a las
economías en desarrollo que tienen limitaciones de la balanza de pagos.
Estos retos s...
Chapter on the impact of financial liberalization on growth and structrual change. Book edited by Esteban Pérez Caldentey, Matias vernengo and Martin Abeles
Recent contributions to the literature on industrialization and development have confirmed that manufacturing continues to play a key role as a driver of economic development. As a corollary, these contributions highlight the importance of premature industrialization as a barrier to economic development and as one of the main sources of the middle-...
This paper offers a simple, tractable post-Keynesian model, which highlights the importance of structural change and productive development in defining the dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate(RER) and foreign debt in a small open developing economy. The argument is that in countries that keep the capital account open and rely on austerity policies t...
An important part of the work of Octavio Rodriguez in development theory was to systematize and advance the contributions of the Latin American Structuralist School (hereafter LAS). In general terms, Structuralists models take into consideration the specific technological, political and Oscar Burgueño and Adela Hounie are 1 retirees from the same u...
This chapter is devoted to Latin American structuralism. The chapter summarizes centre–periphery theory as stressing the co-evolution of technological capabilities and the pattern of specialization. The centre and periphery are two different sets of countries that differ markedly in terms of this co-evolution. Firstly, the periphery is a laggard re...
External conditions have historically influenced economic outcomes and have also impacted political institutions in developing countries. Focusing on these changes, this article develops a theoretical model of political conflict and democratic stability in a small open developing economy, using as the basis a structuralist macroeconomic model. In t...
The need to reshape the international system to foster convergence and reduce inequality; structuralist perspective in international relations
Este artículo busca integrar en un marco analítico único las tres dimensiones del desarrollo sostenible, a saber, la económica, la social y la ambiental. Para ello se construye un modelo de tres brechas en la tradición estructuralista, donde se definen y contrastan tres tasas de crecimiento: la tasa máxima compatible con el equilibrio externo, la t...
This paper offers a simple, tractable post-Keynesian model, which highlights the importance of structural change and productive development in defining the dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate(RER) and foreign debt in a small open developing economy. The argument is that in countries that keep the capital account open and rely on austerity policies t...
The outbreak of Covid-19 brought back to the forefront the crucial importance of structural change and productive development for economic resilience to economic shocks. Several recent contributions have already stressed the perverse relation that may exist between productive backwardness and the intensity of the Covid-19 socioeconomic crisis. In t...
International cooperation, especially on a multilateral basis, has lost ground in recent years. This process has been accompanied by the erosion of core democratic values in many developing and developed countries. Taking Rodrik’s trilemma in international political economy as a point of departure, we analyze the relationship between international...
The publication is divided into two main axes, macroeconomics and development. The articles will be shorter in comparison to a traditional academic paper. However, the analyzes presented will be more in-depth than a newspapers article, but accessible for readers who are not specialists in Economics.
In this report, we stress the importance of structural change and productive development as leading engines of post-Covid economic recovery. We do so by first putting emphasis on the perverse relation between underdeveloped productive structures and the intensity of the Covid-19 crisis. We then look at factors that may have harmed productive develo...
Resumen Las economías de América Latina y el Caribe han venido rezagándose en la economía mundial, lo que constituye un reflejo de problemas estructurales que comprometen su capacidad de crecimiento y de absorción de la tecnología. La pandemia de enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19) no solo ha visibilizado esos problemas estructurales, sino que lo...
This edited volume provides a comprehensive overview of the major debates on the role of structural change in economic development. The book begins by recounting the intellectual history of the notion of structural change, providing a critical overview of the arguments that link structural change to growth and development, before outlining the main...
This paper modifies the Acemoglu–Robinson model of the economic basis of democracy to discuss the impact of the international regime regulating capital flows on the consolidation and quality of democracy. Two regimes of capital mobility are considered, Bretton Woods and Rodrik’s hyperglobalization, in an international economy formed by an advanced...
This paper presents a Balance-of-payments (BOP)-constrained growth model in which the interaction between the real exchange rate (RER) policy and industrial policy result in the emergence of different patterns of growth and income distribution. The paper relies on cumulative causation à la Kaldor and path-dependency to relate both types of policies...
The article integrates a baseline Kaleckian model with a balance of payments constrained growth for addressing the interaction among: income distribution, international competitiveness and environmental innovation taking into account the proactive role of environmental policies The crucial link is given by intermediate inputs (raw materials and ene...
This article introduces a novel (environmental) interpretation of a “Keynesian coordination game” and develops four potential scenarios to remaining within a global carbon emissions constraint. With inspiration from research on “ecologically unequal exchange” (EUE), we demonstrate the drawbacks of present “green growth” strategies by considering ho...
The shift of labour out of the agricultural sector and into the manufacturing and services sectors seems to be an important factor in explaining why some countries are so much richer than others. Therefore, understanding not only the driving mechanisms and forces behind the process of structural change but also how these mechanisms interact and rei...
This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In...
Structuralists and Post-Keynesians share the perspective that in the long run economic growth is shaped by the income elasticity of exports and imports, and that such elasticities are a positive function of the degree of diversification and technological intensity of the pattern of specialization. Since the mid 1970s, New Structuralists began to st...
Nos modelos de crescimento de corte Kaldoriano, tem-se uma distinção central entre o regime de produtividade (lado da oferta) e o regime de demanda. Estes regimes interagem por meio das taxas de crescimento efetiva (yE) e natural (yN). Um equilíbrio estável requer que essas taxas convirjam. Uma abordagem central da teoria Keynesiana enfatiza o pape...
This paper presents a North-South technology gap model which combines the Schumpeterian approach to technical and structural change with the Keynesian perspective on effective demand and the Balance-of-Payments (BOP) constraint as drivers of growth. Three are the contributions of the paper. First, it develops a model in which the technology gap, re...
The interaction between the effective (yE) and the natural rate of growth (yN) is a central part - implicitly or explicitly addressed - in all growth models. A stable equilibrium requires these two rates to converge; otherwise, one or more macroeconomic variables would rise or fall without bounds. In addition, the Keynesian tradition stressed the b...
The original "manifesto" that gave rise to the Structuralist development theory was written for the Economic Commission of Latin America (ECLA, subsequently ECLAC, after incorporating the Caribbean States in 1984) by Raul Prebisch (1949). This work had a strong impact on both the theoretical and policy debates and served as a rationale for the effo...
This paper discusses the role of institutions and structural change in shaping income inequality. It is argued that while social expenditure and direct redistribution are crucial for improving income distribution, sustainable equality requires structural change. The relative importance of these variables in different countries is analyzed and a typ...
La economía internacional atraviesa un período de profundos desequilibrios que comprometen la continuidad del crecimiento y que generan intensas tensiones políticas, tanto en el mundo desarrollado como en los países en desarrollo. Es urgente cambiar dichos patrones y avanzar en la dirección de un nuevo modelo que promueva la productividad y que sea...
A contractionary fiscal policy is the usual policy advice given to countries that experience deficits in current account. However, under certain circumstances, fiscal austerity may worsen external disequilibrium. This paper discusses the conditions in which instability may emerge using a Keynesian model which highlights the crucial role of public i...
This paper focuses on the role of the production structure in shaping output shares, wage bargaining and the dynamics of the real exchange rate in a Neo-Kaleckian macroeconomic model. While changes in the rate of capital utilization ensure the short-run equilibrium, in the medium run the real exchange rate must adjust to stabilize the labor market...
The paper expands the BOP-constraint growth model and Kaldorian regimes (productivity and demand regimes) in order to include some of the concerns raised by ecological economics in post-Keynesian models for open economies. The demand regime is modified by taking into account Porter's hypothesis, which suggests that environmental innovations, spurre...
El artículo presenta un modelo keynesiano en el que el cambio de la estructura se visuali-za en conjunto con los ajustes de política macroeconómica convencionales. Se destaca la necesidad de observar los dos movimientos en conjunto y de no olvidar el énfasis que pone Schumpeter en el cambio estructural cuando se aplican políticas keynesianas de man...
Structural heterogeneity (SH)—i.e. the existence of marked asymmetries in labour productivity among firms, along with low-productivity firms forming a large share of total employment—plays an important role in development theory. But only recently has the availability of micro data made the rigorous measuring of SH possible. This paper makes compat...
O artigo discute como a política fiscal, através dos gastos em educação, afeta a
acumulação de capacidades e o nível de emprego. Desse modo, o gasto público pode
afetar a produtividade e ter efeitos que vão além daqueles diretos sobre a demanda
efetiva. O efeito sobre a produtividade deriva do fato de que parte do gasto público
se destina à educaçã...
Resumo: O artigo discute, sob uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana, o impacto do regime de metas de inflação sobre o crescimento, a distribuição e a estabilidade em uma economia aberta. O modelo combina a barganha salarial, as variações na capacidade utilizada e o equilíbrio em conta corrente para mostrar que a política monetária tem um impacto real sobr...
The
paper discusses, from a Post-Keynesian perspective, the impacts of an inflation
target regime on growth, distribution and stability in an open economy. The
model combines a conflicting claims theory of inflation, changes in the rate of
capacity utilization and equilibrium in the external sector to show that in the
long run monetary policy has a...
We develop a dynamic model of capacity utilization and growth taking into account the codetermination of international competitiveness (measured by the real exchange rate) and income distribution. It follows that distribution, capacity utilization, and growth vary with the real exchange rate depending on the source of change in the latter. Meanwhil...
We present a dynamic model of capacity utilization and growth which takes into due account the joint determination of the international competitiveness (measured by the real exchange rate) and functional income distribution. It follows that how distribution, capacity utilization and growth vary with the real exchange rate depends on the cause of ch...
This paper discusses the effects of the real exchange rate (RER, defined as the price of the foreign currency in units of the domestic currency, adjusted by price levels) on the diversification and technological intensity of the export structure. Based on a North-South Ricardian model of trade with a continuum of goods, in which comparative advanta...
The Latin American Structuralism (LAS) is a significant part of the heterodox tradition in the theory of long run growth, with a focus on the problems of developing economies which started their industrialization process when other regions had already accumulated substantial technological capabilities. The emergence of a centre-periphery system pos...
O foco deste capítulo é a convergência de renda per capita nos municípios do estado do Paraná. Como são municípios dentro do mesmo estado seria possível esperar que o tipo de convergência predominante fosse absoluta. Usando os modelos de capital humano de Nelson e Phelps (1966) e Lucas (1988) é mostrado que a convergência é condicional à acumulação...
Structuralist and evolutionary theories agree on the fact that one of the main challenges of development is diffusing technological progress, so as to change the pattern of specialization by incorporating new sectors and reducing inter-sectoral disparities, raising productivity levels and improving income distribution; then, once external constrain...
Both economic history and economic theory generally acknowledge a deep relationship between technical change and economic development. It is quite intuitive that improvements in the efficiency of production techniques or in product performances may be a determinant or at least a condition for growth in productivity and industrialization. The openin...
The links between the micro and macro levels have challenged theoretical efforts in many fields, and economics is no exception. It is well known that the thought on micro-macro interactions in economic theory has followed at least two alternative paths. One of them comprises rational expectations and the construction of macroeconomic models based o...
Os trabalhos pioneiros de Nelson e Winter sugeriram uma nova forma de abordar a teoria microeconômica. O artigo de Silverberg, Dosi e Orsenigo, originalmente publicado em 1988 na revista The Economic Journal e agora reproduzida na RBI, parte dos elementos centrais da abordagem de Nelson e Winter e os desenvolve para dar sustentação a um modelo teór...
This paper aims to make a contribution to modeling monetary rules in open developing economies, in a context in which international capital flows are a force that has a decisive influence on the sustainable combination of the real exchange rate (RER) and the inflation rate. The intended contributions of the paper are twofold: it extends the Kalecki...
The paper aims to contribute to the debate on specialization and growth in two forms. First, it develops a north-south model in which the ratio between the income elasticity of exports and imports in the south (which gives the rate of growth compatible with external equilibrium) depends on the Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiencies of the pattern...
No seu livro clássico Schumpeter (1912) ressalta que o crescimento econômico se sustenta principalmente na mudança estrutural, na criação de novos bens, novos mercados e novos meios de transporte – que ele de forma genérica designava como a criação de novas funções de produção. Durante as décadas de sessenta e setenta, no entanto, a economia conven...
Introdução Este trabalho tem como objetivo central apresentar uma breve revisão sobre o tema da Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF) no Brasil. Para tanto, apresenta duas seções. A primeira é destinada a apresentar os principais aspectos teóricos pertinentes ao tema, com ênfase na discussão sobre o significado teórico da PTF. A segunda seção apres...
O trabalho discute a importância da cooperação Universidade-Empresa no Brasil e analisa os efeitos dessa cooperação no desempenho da firma. Existem diversos estudos que mostram que as universidades têm um importante papel na oferta de capacidades de pesquisa e de treinamento avançado em países em desenvolvimento. Nesses países em geral o peso do se...
Este artigo discute pontos pouco lembrados na conjuntura atual, como a perda de capacidades tecnológicas e de capital humano, comuns em períodos de crise. Esses fatores levam a uma queda na produtividade da economia, o que tende a ocasionar queda do produto no longo prazo. Além disso, tornam mais difícil a retomada da atividade econômica aos níveis...
A heterogeneidade estrutural é uma antiga preocupação das teorias do desenvolvimento. Neste artigo apresentam-se brevemente o marco teórico em que a persistência da heterogeneidade pode ser entendida e algumas evidências para América Latina. Argumenta-se em favor de políticas de mudança estrutural para reduzir a heterogeneidade no longo prazo.
The second section of this chapter presents the structuralist centre-periphery theory, a device to discuss the features that distinguish the Latin American economies (the periphery) from the developed ones (the centre). Structuralism provides a good account of the macrodynamics of technology, specialization, and relative economic growth. However, i...
Inflation target, real exchange rate and external crisis in a Kaleckian model. Which role should the real exchange rate play in an inflation target regime? In this paper this point is discussed from the point of view of the conditions required for avoiding an external crisis. With this objective, a dynamic Kaleckian model is presented focusing on t...
In this work, international trade is used as a specific vantage point to analyze the technological intensity of Brazil´s productive structure. Exports with a higher technological intensity indicate greater local technological capabilities, this leading to a more dynamic international insertion regarding terms of trade. Several indicators are used t...
The paper develops a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model which discusses the conditions that lead to an external debt crisis in a small developing economy fully integrated to global goods and financial markets. The focus is on how policy rules affect the stability of the economy. Two kinds of policy rules are discussed, namely inflation target and r...
En este texto se presentan algunas ideas claves del estructuralismo latino-americano por medio de un conjunto muy acotado de ecuaciones y gráficos. El artículo pretende ser, al mismo tiempo, un instrumento didáctico (que puede usarse como apoyo en cursos de grado e de post-grado) y una caja de herramientas para pensar los efectos de ciertas polític...
In this paper we apply a model of early industrialization to the case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940. We show how differences in agricultural institutions may have produced different development paths in two countries which were similar under many respects. While in New Zealand the active role of the Crown in regulating the land market fac...
This paper revisits the structuralist ideas on trade and growth and suggests (based on the Prebisch's principle of implicit
reciprocity) that policies for promoting structural change in the periphery may lead to higher global growth and a better
income distribution across countries. The paper discusses the inter-relations and complementarities that...
Resumo Neste trabalho, utiliza-se o comércio internacional como uma lente para captar a intensidade tecnológica da estrutura produtiva brasileira. Considera-se que produtos com maior conteúdo tecnológico vistos pelo lado das exportações indicam melhor qualificação da indústria local, contribuindo para uma inserção mais dinâmica nas relações de troc...
This paper discusses the effects of the real exchange rate (RER) on the structure of exports. Based on a North-South Ricardian model, two hypotheses are suggested and tested. The first one is that a higher RER allows for a higher diversification of exports. The second hypothesis is that this diversification raises the technological intensity of exp...
The paper discusses the idea that the quality of exports matters for economic growth. The influence of the structure of exports on the rates of economic growth is discussed within the context of a growth model with external constraints. To test the relationship between exports and growth, exports are divided in two groups: a) dynamic from a Schumpe...
This article sets out to analyse the relation between agglomeration economies -both the Marshall-Arrow-Romer type (economies of specialization) and the Jacobs-Porter type (economies of diversification)- and the unequal development of Brazilian municipalities as estimated by labour productivity (measured by the average wage). To that end, measures o...
This paper discusses why Latin America failed to achieve sustainable convergence with the developed world since 1960 and analyses
different phases of convergence and divergence using a structuralist-Keynesian approach. First, it is argued that there are
critical differences between Latin America, the developed economies and the Asian economies as r...
This paper develops the Ricardian multigoods model in several directions with a view to studying the relationship between the technology gap, the pattern of specialization and the institutional framework that organizes technological learning and wage bargaining. The interaction between the technology gap and relative real wages endogenously defines...
