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Gabriel Madirolas

Gabriel Madirolas

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24
Publications
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72
Citations

Publications

Publications (24)
Article
Full-text available
How effective groups are in making decisions is a long-standing question in studying human and animal behaviour. Despite the limited social and cognitive abilities of younger people, skills which are often required for collective intelligence, studies of group performance have been limited to adults. Using a simple task of estimating the number of...
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The relationship between individual estimates before and after group discussion in Experiment 1. (PDF)
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The effect of disagreement (range) in initial estimates on improving group estimates in Experiment 2. (PDF)
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The effect of question order and treatment on the disagreement (range) of initial estimates in Experiment 2. (PDF)
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Summary of statistical tests in Experiment 1. (PDF)
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Summary of statistical tests from Experiment 2. (PDF)
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Data from Experiment 1 (.csv format). (CSV)
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Log-likelihood of simple aggregation rules, the noisy geometric mean model, and confidence intervals for frequencies of the aggregation rules using the noisy geometric mean model. (PDF)
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The relationship between the range of initial estimates and estimates given by the group or calculated from initial estimates in Experiment 1. (PDF)
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Fits of different aggregation rules to the observed data at various levels of added noise in Experiment 1. (PDF)
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Distribution of individual initial estimates in Experiment 2. (PDF)
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The effect of question order on the absolute error of (initial and group consensus) estimates in Experiment 2. (PDF)
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The age distribution of participants in Experiment 1, correlations within groups, and distribution of individual initial estimates. (PDF)
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The jars of sweets used in Experiment 1 and Experiment 2. (PDF)
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The use and consequence of different aggregation rules for different thresholds that define groups as having a low or high range in Experiment 1. (PDF)
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Correlations across treatments in the range of individual initial estimates per group. (PDF)
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The relationship between participants’ self-rated confidence and error and the change in individuals estimates between stages. (PDF)
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Absolute error of the geometric rule compared to the other aggregation rules and the observed consensus estimates (Experiment 1), for all groups, and then with the groups split by those with low (≤40) and high ranges (>40). (PDF)
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Data from Experiment 2 (.csv format). (CSV)
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The distribution of the difference between the group estimate and the mean of initial estimates. (PDF)
Article
Full-text available
The total knowledge contained within a collective supersedes the knowledge of even its most intelligent member. Yet the collective knowledge will remain inaccessible to us unless we are able to find efficient knowledge aggregation methods that produce reliable decisions based on the behavior or opinions of the collective’s members. It is often stat...
Article
Full-text available
Groups can make precise collective estimations in cases like the weight of an object or the number of items in a volume. However, in others tasks, for example those requiring memory or mental calculation, subjects often give estimations with large deviations from factual values. Allowing members of the group to communicate their estimations has the...
Article
Full-text available
Human groups can perform extraordinary accurate estimations compared to individuals by simply using the mean, median or geometric mean of the individual estimations [Galton 1907, Surowiecki 2005, Page 2008]. However, this is true only for some tasks and in general these collective estimations show strong biases. The method fails also when allowing...
Article
Full-text available
Decisions by humans depend on their estimations given some uncertain sensory data. These decisions can also be influenced by the behavior of others. Here we present a mathematical model to quantify this influence, inviting a further study on the cognitive consequences of social information. We also expect that the present model can be used for a be...

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