Fulu Tao 陶福禄

Chinese Academy of Sciences | CAS

CONTEXT The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most well-known climate modes, can lead to large-scale climate variability and subsequent crop loss, posing a severe risk to global food security. OBJECTIVE The study's main goal was to examine the synchronous impacts of ENSO and the probability of simultaneous ENSO–related crop loss on t...

Genetic markers can be linked with eco-physiological crop models to accurately predict genotype performance and individual markers’ contributions in target environments, exploring interactions between genotype and environment. Here, wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield was dissected into seven traits corresponding to cultivar genetic coefficients in...

Extreme temperature, especially heat stress, is increasingly limiting wheat production, resulting in a large yield loss worldwide. Identifying the cultivars, traits and molecular mechanisms conferring extreme high temperature tolerance is essential for comprehending crop resilience to extreme climates and breeding climate-resilient cultivars. Here,...

Farming activities are a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Altering cropping practices is considered a potential emissions reduction route, but the extent to which GHG emissions can be mitigated without compromising other important aspects of food production (e.g., productivity, economic profits, water use, nutrition) remains...

Water-saving irrigation (WI) is a crucial agricultural management with the benefits to save irrigation water, reduce energy consumption, and suppress methane emissions from paddy lands. Classifying WI practices from traditional flooding irrigation (FI) is a key component in detecting the rice irrigation status, which is significant to estimate the...

This paper describes the data set that was used to test the accuracy of twenty-nine crop models in simulating the effect of changing sowing dates and sowing densities on wheat productivity for a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The data includes one winter wheat cultivar (Wakanui) grown during six consecutive years, from 2012-2013 to 2017-...

The leaf economics spectrum (LES) is an ecophysiological concept that describes the trade-offs between leaf structural and physiological traits. It has been extensively studied across various scales. However, the coordination hypothesis has rarely been tested at the intraspecific scale, especially in crops, for understanding yield increases or pred...

The Huang-Huai-Hai region accounts for 80% of China’s wheat production, leading to severe groundwater depletion and substantial environmental impacts. Here we present an optimization framework for wheat redistribution to reduce both water requirements and environmental impacts without compromising production. Our results show that environmental foo...

Soybean, an essential food crop, has witnessed a steady rise in demand in recent years. There is a lack of high-resolution annual maps depicting soybean-planting areas in China, despite China being the world's largest consumer and fourth-largest producer of soybean. To address this gap, we developed the novel Regional Adaptation Spectra-Phenology I...

Drought is one of the most adverse factors affecting plant growth and productivity. Identifying elite genotypes and their ideotypic traits conferring high yield potential and drought tolerance is critical in selecting and breeding drought-tolerant wheat cultivars. In this study, we conducted field experiments at the Xinxiang Agricultural Comprehens...

Reliable and spatially explicit information on global crop yield has paramount implications for food security and agricultural sustainability. However, most previous yield estimates are either coarse-resolution in both space and time or are based on limited studied areas. Here, we developed a transferable approach to estimate 4 km global wheat yiel...

Flood hazards pose a significant threat to agricultural production. Agricultural adaptations tend to be prevalent and systematic in high-frequency flood (HFF) areas but neglected in low-frequency flood (LFF) areas. Here, using satellite imagery, we map global spatial distributions of LFF and HFF at 250 m resolution for 3,427 flood events between 20...

Permafrost-agroecosystems include all cultivation and pastoral activities in areas underlain by permafrost. These systems support local livelihoods and food production and are rarely considered in global agricultural studies but may become more relevant as climate change is increasing opportunities for food production in high latitude and mountaino...

Understanding how climate change has been affecting crop yield is a prerequisite to inform adaptation decisions and to ensure global food security. The Northeast China (NEC), located in high-latitude area, is significantly affected by climate change. There is a high demand for quantitative information on impacts of climate variability on crop yield...

To address the rising global food demand in a changing climate, yield gaps (Y G), the difference between potential yields under irrigated (Y P) or rainfed conditions (Y WL) and actual farmers' yields (Y a), must be significantly narrowed whilst raising potential yields. Here, we examined the likely impacts of climate change (including changes in cl...

Soybean, an essential food crop, has witnessed a steady rise in demand in recent years. There is a lack of high-resolution annual maps depicting soybean planting areas in China, despite China being the world’s largest consumer and fourth largest producer of soybeans. To address this gap, we developed a novel method called phenological- and pixel-ba...

It is important to investigate the response and adaptation mechanisms of crop traits and yield to ongoing climate change under genotype (G), environment (E), and management (M) interactions in order to develop climate-resilient cultivars and agricultural systems. Here, using long-term trial data at six comprehensive agricultural experiment stations...

The planting area of three staple crops (rice, maize and wheat) in China ranks among the highest in the world. Developing the planting area maps of three staple crops consistent with the county-level statistical data for agricultural policy formulation and disaster risk prevention. However, there is a scarcity of available planting area datasets of...

Grain production must increase by 60% in the next four decades to keep up with the expected population growth and food demand. A significant part of this increase must come from the improvement of staple crop grain yield potential. Crop growth simulation models combined with field experiments and crop physiology are powerful tools to quantify the i...

Model-based climate change impact assessments involve uncertainties given the many physical, biological and socio-economic processes involved and their complexity. Among other things, uncertainties arise from unknown future development of greenhouse gas emissions and uncertainties in climate change scenarios, input data, model structures and parame...

Context: The response of rice growth and yield to climate variations in different climate zones and the underlying mechanisms need to be better understood. Objectives: The objectives were to investigate the variations of rice growth and yield with climate variables in different climate zones across China in the past decades and their relations wit...

not yet peer-reviewed

Permafrost-agroecosystems are highly heterogenous socio-ecological systems that include animal husbandry practices (such as reindeer and yak herding) and crop cultivation in areas that contain permafrost. These systems affect food security, culture and livelihoods and are particularly sensitive to permafrost degradation processes, surface stability...

Floods occur more frequently in the context of climate change; however, flood monitoring capacity has not been well established. Here, we used a synergic mapping framework to characterize summer floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the effects on croplands in 2020, from both flood extent and intensity perspectives....

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchma...

Rice is the most important staple food in Asia. However, high-spatiotemporal-resolution rice yield datasets are limited over this large region. The lack of such products greatly hinders studies that are aimed at accurately assessing the impacts of climate change and simulating agricultural production. Based on annual rice maps in Asia, we incorpora...

Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in glob...

Plain Language Summary Forest ecosystem plays a vital role in the earth's hydrological process, and water storage capacity of forest ecosystems related to water regulation service (WSCFE) is of vital importance for human well‐being. Water can be intercepted by forest canopy, be held by litter, and be stored in soils, which accounts for more than a...

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of the regional hydrological cycle and has important applications for water resource and agricultural drought management. Various global soil moisture products have been mostly retrieved from microwave remote sensing data. However, currently there is rarely spatially explicit and time-continuous soil moisture in...

Background and aims: Physiological and morphological traits play essential roles in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth and development. In particular, photosynthesis is a limitation to yield. Increasing photosynthesis in wheat has been identified as an important strategy to increase yield. However, the genotypic variations and the genomic regions...

Accurate and spatially explicit information on global crop yield is paramount for guiding policy-making and ensuring food security. However, most public datasets are at coarse resolution in both space and time. Here, we used data-driven models to develop a 4-km dataset of global wheat yield (GlobalWheatYield4km) from 1982 to 2020. First, we propose...

Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosy...

CONTEXT Concerns about the effects of global warming on crop yields have risen due to stagnating yield progress in recent years. Understanding crop traits and grain yield variations in different climate zones is critical to gain insights into crop response and adaptation mechanisms to ongoing climate change. However, the interactions of genotype, e...

Extreme heat is one major warming‐related threat to food security and farmers' livelihood, especially in Asia. As an economic adaptation, weather index insurance (WII) can transfer such weather‐related risks, secure farms' incomes, and recover agricultural systems soon after yield losses. However, few relevant studies evaluate its potential in the...

Investigating the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and water environment at the basin scale is important for providing scientific evidence to manage the trade-offs and synergies among water resources, agricultural production and environmental protection. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with various...

Accurate and spatially explicit information on crop yield over large areas is paramount for ensuring global food security and guiding policy-making. However, most public datasets are coarse resolution in both space and time. Here, we used data-driven models to develop a 4-km dataset of global wheat yield (GlobalWheatYield4km) from 1982 to 2020. Fir...

Investigating CO2 fluxes and carbon budget in agro-ecosystems is essential to develop climate smart agriculture. Here, we conducted a thorough analysis on the daily, seasonal and inter-annual variations in CO2 fluxes and carbon budget in a winter-wheat and summer-maize rotation system in the North China Plain (NCP) to better understand the CO2 flux...

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of regional hydrological cycle and has important applications for water resource and agricultural drought management. Various global soil moisture products have been mostly retrieved from microwave remote sensing data. However, there is currently rare spatially explicit and time-continuous soil moisture informat...

Assessing climate change impacts on crop phenology is essential for developing adaptation options. To better understand crop response and adaptation to climate change, there is an urgent need to investigate whether the impacts weakens and how crops responds to recent climate warming, as well as the roles of different drivers in crop phenology chang...

Rice is the most important staple food in Asia. However, high-spatiotemporal-resolution rice yield datasets are very limited over a large region. The lack of such products hugely hinders the studies on accurately assessing the impacts of climate change and simulating agricultural production. Based on dynamic rice maps in Asia, we incorporated four...

Wheat radiation use efficiency (RUE) must be raised through crop breeding to further increase the yield potential, as the harvest index is now close to its theoretical limit. Field experiments, including 209 wheat cultivars which have been widely cultivated in China since the 1940s, were grown in two growing seasons (2018‐2019 and 2019‐2020) to eva...

Detecting crop calendar changes is critically important for crop monitoring and management, but the lack of annual, Asia-wide, and long-term rice calendar datasets limits our understanding of rice phenological changes and their climate drivers. In this study, we retrieved key rice phenological dates from the GLASS AVHRR LAI through combining thresh...

Freshwater is an essential resource for human lives, agriculture, industry, and ecology. Future water supply, water withdrawal, and water security under the impacts of climate change and human interventions have been of key concern. Numerous studies have projected future changes in river runoff and surface water resources under climate change. Howe...

Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global ssessments of crop waterlogging are rare. Here, we make three important contributions to the literature. First, we develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a contempo...

A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t 3 Highlight An ensemble of 29 wheat crop models simulates seasonal wheat growth well under locally recommended sowing conditions, but needs improvements to capture the yield response to early sowing, especially under high sowing density. Abstract Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in inc...

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of a MME to capture crop response to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to cl...

Climate warming has substantially shifted plant phenology, which alters the length of growing season and consequently affects plant productivity. Recent studies showed a stalled or reversed impact of climate change on vegetation phenology since 1998, as well as an asymmetric warming effect. However, how field crop phenology responded to the recent...

Assessing global food security and developing sustainable production systems need spatially explicit information on crop harvesting areas and yields; however the available datasets are spatially and temporally coarse. Here, we developed a general framework, Global Wheat Production Mapping System (GWPMS), to map the spatial distribution of wheat har...

CONTEXT Timely information on the spatiotemporal trends in annual paddy rice planting areas (PRA) and cropping intensity (CI) in Asia is important for food security warnings and water use planning. However, long-time series datasets for these are generally unavailable. The spatiotemporal dynamics of annual paddy rice and cropping intensity over the...

Wheat has been documented to be vulnerable to climate change in broad regions of the world including China. Adaptation to future climate change by breeding climate resilient cultivars is essential. However the precise information as to where, when, and what cultivar traits should be applied to adapt to climate change in the coming decades has not b...

Investigating the spatiotemporal changes in the eco-hydrological processes and environment, as well as their drivers, is essential to manage the trade-offs among water supply, agricultural production, and environment at a basin scale. In this study, we developed a framework based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), together with the histo...

To meet the challenges of climate change, population growth, and an increasing food demand, an accurate, timely and dynamic yield estimation of regional and global crop yield is critical to food trade and policy-making. In this study, a machine learning method (Random Forest, RF) was used to estimate winter wheat yield in China from 2014 to 2018 by...

Terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) service is subject to climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (eCO2), however, the relevant processes by which future climate change and eCO2 affect TEWR are poorly understood. Here, we use the factorial simulation experiments from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercompari...

Climate change is projected to have an important impact on crop productivity at broad regions of the world. Crop breeders across the globe have continuously been working on development of crop cultivars to adapt to climate change, the detailed information is necessary on when and where the adaptability of current cultivars will be broken and what c...

Investigating crop phenology change has important implications to understand crop response and adaptation to climate change. The spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology had been investigated before, nevertheless some key scientific questions remain inconclusive. Here, the updated phenological observations with the longest time period (1981–2018)...

Chinese agricultural systems have experienced dramatic changes in crop planting area, cropping system, irrigation and fertilization managements, and crop yields in recent decades. These changes can substantially affect greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in croplands. However, the spatiotemporal patterns, as...

Crop yield is dependent on crop biomass and harvest index. The increases in crop yield in the past benefit mainly from the increase in harvest index, the increase in biomass has been small. Light use efficiency is a bottleneck to further increase crop biomass and yield. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a widely cultivated cereal crop globally, provi...

The ability of crop models to decompose complex traits and integrate the underlying processes enables them to capture genotype-environment interactions in diverse environments. Integrating genomics with biophysical crop models represents a potential breakthrough technology for improving our understanding of genotype-environment interactions across...

Regional crop yield forecasting before harvest is critical for managing climate risk, optimizing agronomic management, and making food trade policy. The advantage of remote sensing data-crop model assimilation for yield estimates has been well recognized, however its potential for early-season crop yield forecasting has not yet been investigated. I...

Cropland plays an important role in Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) sequestration. Although the SOC stock and its dynamic in the past decades have been extensively investigated, the information as to where, how much, and how SOC could be potentially sequestered in the coming decades has rarely been available. Here, the Rothamsted Carbon model was applied...

Exploring the changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes is essential to improve the understanding of climate impact mechanisms and develop climate-resilient cultivars, which however has been seldom conducted. In this study, using a process-based crop model (APSIM-Wheat), meta-regression analyses, a...