Fredrik Ronquist

Swedish Museum of Natural History · Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics

We present the data from the Insect Biome Atlas project (IBA), characterizing the terrestrial arthropod faunas of Sweden and Madagascar. Over 12 months, weekly Malaise trap samples were collected at 203 locations within 100 sites in Sweden and at 50 locations within 33 sites in Madagascar; this was complemented by soil and litter samples from each...

Sampling of species-rich taxa followed by DNA metabarcoding is quickly becoming a popular high-throughput method for biodiversity inventories. Unfortunately, we know little about its accuracy and efficiency, as the results mostly pertain to poorly-known organism groups in underexplored environments or regions of the world. Here we ask what an exten...

Any single ecosystem will provide many ecosystem functions. Whether these functions tend to increase in concert or trade off against each other is a question of much current interest. Equally topical are the drivers behind ecosystem function rates. Yet, we lack large - scale systematic studies that investigate how abiotic factors can directly or in...

Among the most widely used information underpinning international conservation efforts is the IUCN Red List of endangered species. The Red List designates species extinction risk based on geographic range, population size, or declines in either. However, the Red-List has poor representation of invertebrates which comprise the majority of animal div...

Gall wasps (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae) comprise 13 distinct tribes whose interrelationships remain incompletely understood. Recent analyses of ultra‐conserved elements (UCEs) represent the first attempt at resolving these relationships using phylogenomics. Here, we present the first analysis based on protein‐coding sequences from genome and transcript...

Bayesian phylogenetics is now facing a critical point. Over the last 20 years, Bayesian methods have reshaped phylogenetic inference and gained widespread popularity due to their high accuracy, the ability to quantify the uncertainty of inferences and the possibility of accommodating multiple aspects of evolutionary processes in the models that are...

Insects are diverse and sustain essential ecosystem functions, yet remain understudied. Recent reports about declines in insect abundance and diversity have highlighted a pressing need for comprehensive large-scale monitoring. Metabarcoding (high-throughput bulk sequencing of marker gene amplicons) offers a cost-effective and relatively fast method...

Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPLs) allow users to encode statistical inference problems and automatically apply an inference algorithm to solve them. Popular inference algorithms for PPLs, such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are built around checkpoints —relevant events for the inference algorithm durin...

Metabarcoding (high‐throughput sequencing of marker gene amplicons) has emerged as a promising and cost‐effective method for characterizing insect community samples. Yet, the methodology varies greatly among studies and its performance has not been systematically evaluated to date. In particular, it is unclear how accurately metabarcoding can resol...

Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPLs) allow users to encode statistical inference problems and automatically apply an inference algorithm to solve them. Popular inference algorithms for PPLs, such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are built around checkpoints -- relevant events for the inference algorithm dur...

In our previous work, the PhyPPL concept paper [1], we used the sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm in a probabilistic programming language framework to do a Bayes factor comparison for the diversification models CRBD, TDBD, BAMM, LSBDS (not shown, a weaker variation of BAMM), and the novel ClaDS on the 40 bird clades having more than 50 species, take...

Metabarcoding (high-throughput sequencing of marker gene amplicons) has emerged as a promising and cost-effective method for characterizing insect community samples. Yet, the methodology varies greatly among studies and its performance has not been systematically evaluated to date. In particular, it is unclear how accurately metabarcoding can resol...

DNA metabarcoding can accelerate research on insect diversity, as it is cheap and fast compared to manual sorting and identification. Most metabarcoding protocols require homogenisation of the sample, preventing further work on the specimens. Mild digestion of the tissue by incubation in a lysis buffer has been proposed as an alternative, and, alth...

New, rapid, accurate, scalable, and cost-effective species discovery and delimitation methods are needed for tackling "dark taxa", here defined as groups for which <10% of all species are described and the estimated diversity exceeds 1000 species. Species delimitation for these taxa should be based on multiple data sources ("integrative taxonomy")...

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) allow users to encode arbitrary inference problems, and PPL implementations provide general-purpose automatic inference for these problems. However, constructing inference implementations that are efficient enough is challenging for many real-world problems. Often, this is due to PPLs not fully exploiting...

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) allow for natural encoding of arbitrary inference problems, and PPL implementations can provide automatic general-purpose inference for these problems. However, constructing inference implementations that are efficient enough is challenging for many real-world problems. Often, this is due to PPLs not fully...

The study of herbivorous insects underpins much of the theory that concerns the evolution of species interactions. In particular, Pieridae butterflies and their host plants have served as a model system for studying evolutionary arms races. To learn more about the coevolution of these two clades, we reconstructed ancestral ecological networks using...

New, rapid, accurate, scalable, and cost-effective species discovery and delimitation methods are needed for tackling 'dark taxa', that we here define as clades for which <10% of all species are described and the estimated diversity exceeds 1000 species. Species delimitation should be based on multiple data sources ('integrative taxonomy') but coll...

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-01922-8

Statistical phylogenetic analysis currently relies on complex, dedicated software packages, making it difficult for evolutionary biologists to explore new models and inference strategies. Recent years have seen more generic solutions based on probabilistic graphical models, but this formalism can only partly express phylogenetic problems. Here, we...

Traditionally, insects collected for scientific purposes have been dried and pinned, or preserved in 70% ethanol. Both methods preserve taxonomically informative exoskeletal structures well but are suboptimal for preserving DNA for molecular biology. Highly concentrated ethanol (95–100%), preferred as a DNA preservative, has generally been assumed...

The study of herbivorous insects underpins much of the theory that concerns the evolution of species interactions. In particular, Pieridae butterflies and their host plants have served as a model system for studying evolutionary arms-races. To learn more about how the two lineages co-evolved over time, we reconstructed ecological networks and netwo...

High‐throughput sequencing (HTS) is increasingly being used for the characterisation and monitoring of biodiversity. If applied in a structured way, across broad geographic scales, it offers the potential for a much deeper understanding of global biodiversity through the integration of massive quantities of molecular inventory data generated indepe...

Background: Despite Sweden's strong entomological tradition, large portions of its insect fauna remain poorly known. As part of the Swedish Taxonomy Initiative, launched in 2002 to document all multi-cellular species occurring in the country, the first taxonomically-broad inventory of the country's insect fauna was initiated, the Swedish Malaise T...

The genus Megaselia Rondani (Diptera: Phoridae) is one of the largest in the animal kingdom, with nearly 1700 described species and many remaining to be discovered. Work on this group is notoriously challenging due to the extreme species diversity, poor knowledge of higher‐level relationships and lack of molecular data. In this paper, we present th...

Statistical phylogenetic analysis currently relies on complex, dedicated software packages, making it difficult for evolutionary biologists to explore new models and inference strategies. Recent years have seen more generic solutions based on probabilistic graphical models, but this formalism can only partly express phylogenetic problems. Here we s...

Intimate ecological interactions, such as those between parasites and their hosts, may persist over long time spans, coupling the evolutionary histories of the lineages involved. Most methods that reconstruct the coevolutionary history of such interactions make the simplifying assumption that parasites have a single host. Many methods also focus on...

1. Traditionally, insects collected for scientific purposes have been dried and pinned, or preserved in 70 % ethanol. Both methods preserve taxonomically informative exoskeletal structures well but are suboptimal for preserving DNA. Highly concentrated ethanol (95 - 100 %), preferred as a DNA preservative, has generally been assumed to make specime...

Despite more than 250 years of taxonomic research, we still have only a vague idea about the true size and composition of the faunas and floras of the planet. Many biodiversity inventories provide limited insight because they focus on a small taxonomic subsample or a tiny geographic area. Here, we report on the size and composition of the Swedish i...

Sampling across tree space is one of the major challenges in Bayesian phylogenetic inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Standard MCMC tree moves consider small random perturbations of the topology, and select from candidate trees at random or based on the distance between the old and new topologies. MCMC algorithms using such...

The Swedish Malaise Trap Project (SMTP) is one of the most ambitious insect inventories ever attempted. The project was designed to target poorly known insect groups across a diverse range of habitats in Sweden. The field campaign involved the deployment of 73 Malaise traps at 55 localities across the country for three years (2003-2006). Over the p...

Rapid and reliable identification of insects is important in many contexts, from the detection of disease vectors and invasive species to the sorting of material from biodiversity inventories. Because of the shortage of adequate expertise, there has long been an interest in developing automated systems for this task. Previous attempts have been bas...

Sampling across tree space is one of the major challenges in Bayesian phylogenetic inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Standard MCMC tree moves consider small random perturbations of the topology, and select from candidate trees at random or based on the distance between the old and new topologies. MCMC algorithms using such...

DNA metabarcoding allows the analysis of insect communities faster and more efficiently than ever before. However, metabarcoding can be conducted through several approaches, and the consistency of results across methods has rarely been studied. We compare the results obtained by DNA metabarcoding of the same communities using two different markers...

The DINA Consortium (“ DI gital information system for NA tural history data”, https://dina-project.net ) was formed in order to provide a framework for like-minded large natural history collection-holding institutions to collaborate through a distributed Open Source development model to produce a flexible and sustainable collection management syst...

We consider probabilistic programming for birth-death models of evolution and introduce a new widely-applicable inference method that combines an extension of the alive particle filter (APF) with automatic Rao-Blackwellization via delayed sampling. Birth-death models of evolution are an important family of phylogenetic models of the diversification...

Despite more than 250 years of taxonomic research, we still have only a vague idea about the true size and composition of the faunas and floras of the planet. Many biodiversity inventories provide limited insight because they focus on a small taxonomic subsample or a tiny geographic area. Here, we report on the size and composition of the Swedish i...

Intimate ecological interactions, such as those between parasites and their hosts, may persist over long time spans, coupling the evolutionary histories of the lineages involved. Most methods that reconstruct the coevolutionary history of such associations make the simplifying assumption that parasites have a single host. Many methods also focus on...

Background: Metabarcoding of the DNA extracted from preservative ethanol of insect bulk samples, instead of homogenized tissue, could bring a series of advantages such as reducing processing time and handling (reducing risk of cross-contamination). But, more importantly, it would allow researchers to conduct further work on intact insects (taxonomy...

DNA metabarcoding allows the analysis of insect communities faster and more efficiently than ever before. However, metabarcoding can be conducted through several alternative approaches, and the consistency of results across methods has rarely been studied. We compare the results obtained by DNA metabarcoding of the same communities using two differ...

Probabilistic programming is a programming paradigm for expressing flexible probabilistic models. Implementations of probabilistic programming languages employ a variety of inference algorithms, where sequential Monte Carlo methods are commonly used. A problem with current state-of-the-art implementations using sequential Monte Carlo inference is t...

Insect metabarcoding has been mainly based on PCR amplification of short fragments within the ‘barcoding region’ of the gene COI. However, because of the variability of this gene, it has been difficult to design good universal PCR primers. Most primers used today are associated with gaps in the taxonomic coverage or amplification biases that make t...

By mechanisms that are still unknown, gall wasps (Cynipidae) induce plants to form complex galls, inside which their larvae develop. The family also includes inquilines (phytophagous forms that live inside the galls of other gall inducers) and possibly also parasitoids of gall inducers. The origin of cynipids is shrouded in mystery, but it has been...

The DINA Consortium ( “ DI gital information system for NA tural history data”, https://dina-project.net, Fig. 1 ) was formed in order to provide a framework for like-minded large natural history collection-holding institutions to collaborate through a distributed Open Source development model to produce a flexible and sustainable collection manage...

Insect metabarcoding has been mainly based on PCR amplification of short fragments within the 'barcoding region' of the gene COI. However, because of the variability of this gene, it has been difficult to design good universal PCR primers. Most primers used today are associated with gaps in the taxonomic coverage or amplification biases that make t...

Background: Many universal primers for insect metabarcoding have been reported to introduce amplification bias due to mismatches with the templates. In a diverse sample, such as a soil or Malaise trap sample of insects, this may result in some species being less efficiently amplified or not detected at all. We explored the potential of solving this...

In the natural history community a high diversity of collection management systems exist. This enables institutions to choose from a large variety of systems, but this choice requires extensive effort to evaluate and commit to an appropriate system to cover all long-term requirements. As the different kinds of natural history data generated by a gi...

Bayesian total-evidence dating involves the simultaneous analysis of morphological data from the fossil record and morphological and sequence data from recent organisms, and it accommodates the uncertainty in the placement of fossils while dating the phylogenetic tree. Due to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, total-evidence dating can also...

Over recent years, several alternative relaxed clock models have been proposed in the context of Bayesian dating. These models fall in two distinct categories: uncorrelated and autocorrelated across branches. The choice between these two classes of relaxed clocks is still an open question. More fundamentally, the true process of rate variation may...

Total-evidence dating (TED) allows evolutionary biologists to incorporate a wide range of dating information into a unified statistical analysis. One might expect this to improve the agreement between rocks and clocks but this is not necessarily the case. We explore the reasons for such discordance using a mammalian dataset with rich molecular, mor...

Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed...

The position of Xenacoelomorpha in the tree of life remains a major unresolved question in the study of deep animal relationships. Xenacoelomorpha, comprising Acoela, Nemertodermatida, and Xenoturbella, are bilaterally symmetrical marine worms that lack several features common to most other bilaterians, for example an anus, nephridia, and a circula...

Directional evolution has played an important role in shaping the morphological, ecological and molecular diversity of life. However, standard substitution models assume stationarity of the evolutionary process over the time scale examined, thus hampering the study of directionality. Here we explore a simple, non-stationary model of evolution for d...

Sampling tree space is the most challenging aspect of Bayesian phylogenetic inference. The sheer number of alternative topologies is problematic by itself. In addition, the complex dependency between branch lengths and topology increases the difficulty of moving efficiently among topologies. Current tree proposals are fast but sample new trees usin...

With 1,400 described species, Megaselia is one of the most species-rich genera in the animal kingdom, and at the same time one of the least studied. An important obstacle to taxonomic progress is the lack of knowledge concerning the phylogenetic structure within the genus. Classification of Megaselia at the level of subgenus is incomplete although...

Figure S2. Majority rule consensus tree from a Bayesian analysis of lucifrons group relationships based on 28S D2 data

Figure S1. Majority rule consensus tree from a Bayesian analysis of lucifrons group relationships based on COI data