Frédérik Saltré

• Ph.D
• Senior Lecturer at University of Technology Sydney

Genetic rescue is a conservation management strategy that reduces the negative effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small and isolated populations. However, such populations might already be vulnerable to random fluctuations in growth rates (demographic stochasticity). Therefore, the success of genetic rescue depends not only on the genetic c...

The persistence of many threatened species depends on isolated habitat patches such as conservation parks, fenced reserves, and islands. While these 'conservation arks' provide refuge from many contemporary threats, they can also pose risks of genetic diversity loss and inbreeding depression, further exacerbating extinction risk. A pertinent exempl...

Aim: The diversity and distribution of traits in an ecological community determine how it functions. Modern fish communities conserve trait space across similar habitats. However, little is known about trait-space variation through deep time (or across vastly different habitats). In this paper, we sought to identify how trait diversity varies throu...

The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections of species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such projections have been mainly produced by species distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts of for...

The impact of smallpox (variola) on Aboriginal communities in Australia beginning in 1789 was catastrophic and continues to cause intergenerational trauma. Historically biased perspectives and contemporary misinformation of the disease’s introduction and spread impede modern-day truth-telling and subsequent reconciliation and national healing. Unde...

Eradicating feral pigs from island ecosystems can assist in restoring damaged biodiversity values and protect commercial industries such as agriculture. Although many feral pig eradications have been attempted, management decisions are often led by practitioner experience rather than empirical evidence. Few interventions have been guided by populat...

Estimating the size of Indigenous populations in Australia prior to European colonial invasion is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation. Robust estimates of the population dynamics of pre-colonial Indigenous Australians are poor due to lethal diseases, frontier violence, and no systematic censuses. We review ethnographic observations, archa...

The hypothesized main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically b...

Biomes are large‐scale ecosystems occupying large spaces. The biome concept should theoretically facilitate scientific synthesis of global‐scale studies of the past, present, and future biosphere. However, there is neither a consensus biome map nor universally accepted definition of terrestrial biomes, making joint interpretation and comparison of...

The ability of our ancestors to switch food sources and to migrate to more favourable environments enabled the rapid global expansion of anatomically modern humans beyond Africa as early as 120,000 years ago. Whether this versatility was largely the result of environmentally determined processes or was instead dominated by cultural drivers, social...

The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers [J. F. Cherry, T. P. Leppard, J. Isl. Coast. Archaeol. 13, 191–205 (2018), 10.1080/15...

The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections of species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such projections, however, are produced using various modeling approaches with little information on their relative performances under expected novel climatic conditions. Here, we...

Genetic rescue is now a serious management consideration for protecting small and isolated populations from the negative effects of inbreeding and genetic drift on genetic diversity and population viability. However, such populations might be already vulnerable to random fluctuations in growth rates (demographic stochasticity). Therefore, the succe...

While data on biological invasions and their economic toll are increasingly available, drivers of susceptibility to damage and cost-effectiveness of management in reducing long-term costs remain poorly understood. We used data describing the damage costs of, and management expenditure on, invasive species among 56 nations between 2000 and 2020 repo...

Nearly two thirds of the world’s population depend on monsoon rainfall. Monsoon failure and extreme precipitation have affected societies for millennia. The distribution and amount of monsoon precipitation is predicted to change as the climate warms, albeit with uncertain regional trajectories. Multiple glacial-interglacial terrestrial records of e...

The hypothesised main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically b...

For most of the period of human occupation of Sahul (the combined Pleistocene landmass of Australia and New Guinea), lower sea levels exposed an extensive area of the northwest of the Australian continent, connecting the Kimberley and Arnhem Land into one vast area. Our analysis of high-resolution bathymetric data shows this now-drowned region exis...

Water extraction and climate change are altering the availability of surface water globally, thereby contributing to amphibian population declines. The managed delivery of water to benefit environmental values (environmental watering) is a promising conservation technique that can support amphibian recruitment and maintain viable populations. Envir...

The dominant paradigm is that large tracts of Southeast Asia’s lowland rainforests were replaced with a “savanna corridor” during the cooler, more seasonal climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (23,000 to 19,000 y ago). This interpretation has implications for understanding the resilience of Asia’s tropical forests to projected climate change,...

The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement, and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers (Cherry & Leppard 2018; Leppard et al. 2022). Using the latest archaeological data,...

Estimating past changes in the ranges of human species over time is an essential precursor for assessing the relative contribution of potential, underlying ecological drivers of these changes. The Neanderthal (Homo neanderthalensis) is the most-studied extinct human species, but despite an abundance of dated archaeological specimens indicating the...

The drivers of susceptibility to damage and management effectiveness in reducing the biological-invasion costs remain poorly understood. We used InvaCost data describing the damage costs of, and management expenditure on, invasive species among 56 nations to test whether higher-income nations have more capacity to limit the damage incurred by invas...

Species interactions play a fundamental role in ecosystems. However, few ecological communities have complete data describing such interactions, which is an obstacle to understanding how ecosystems function and respond to perturbations. Because it is often impractical to collect empirical data for all interactions in a community, various methods ha...

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinctio...

Decommissioning the dingo barrier fence has been suggested to reduce destructive dingo control and encourage a free transfer of biota between environments in Australia. Yet the potential impacts that over a century of predator exclusion might have had on the population dynamics and developmental biology of prey populations has not been assessed. We...

Eradicating feral pigs from island ecosystems can assist in restoring damaged biodiversity values and protect commercial industries such as agriculture. Although many feral pig eradications have been attempted, management decisions are often led by practitioner experience rather than empirical evidence. Few interventions have been guided by populat...

Reconstructing the patterns of Homo sapiens expansion out of Africa and across the globe has been advanced using demographic and travel-cost models. However, modelled routes are ipso facto influenced by migration rates, and vice versa. We combined movement ‘superhighways’ with a demographic cellular automaton to predict one of the world’s earliest...

The regulation of river systems alters hydrodynamics and often reduces lateral connectivity between river channels and floodplains. For taxa such as frogs that rely on floodplain wetlands to complete their lifecycle, decreasing inundation frequency can reduce recruitment and increase the probability of local extinction. We virtually reconstructed t...

Dredging is an excavation activity used worldwide in marine and freshwater environments to create, deepen, and maintain waterways, harbours, channels, locks, docks, berths, river entrances, and approaches to ports and boat ramps. However, dredging impacts on marine life, including marine mammals (cetaceans, pinnipeds, and sire-nians), remain largel...

Species interactions play a fundamental role in ecosystems. They affect where species can live, how their population sizes fluctuate through time, and how environmental perturbations cascade through communities. But few ecological communities have complete data describing such interactions, which is an obstacle to understanding how ecosystems funct...

Climate impacts affect marine ecosystems worldwide with island nations such as New Zealand being extremely vulnerable because of their socio-economic and cultural dependence on the marine and costal environment. Cetaceans are ideal indicator species of ecosystem change and ocean health given their extended life span and cosmopolitan distribution, b...

Pleistocene archaeology in Australia has focussed on the survival and behaviour of Indigenous populations across Sahul during the Last Glacial Maximum (28.6 ± 2.8 ka to 17.7 ± 2.2 ka). A long-standing conceptual model proposes people occupied ecological refugia while abandoning drier regions during extreme climatic conditions, with inferred pattern...

Reconstructing the patterns of expansion out of Africa and across the globe by modern Homo sapiens have been advanced using demographic and travel-cost models. However, modelled routes are ipso facto influenced by migration rates, and vice versa. It is therefore timely to combine these two intertwined phenomena in reconstructing the migratory histo...

Extinctions stemming from environmental change often trigger trophic cascades and coextinctions. Bottom–up cascades occur when changes in the primary producers in a network elicit flow‐on effects to higher trophic levels. However, it remains unclear what determines a species' vulnerability to bottom–up cascades and whether such cascades were a larg...

Archaeological data and demographic modelling suggest that the peopling of Sahul required substantial populations, occurred rapidly within a few thousand years and encompassed environments ranging from hyper-arid deserts to temperate uplands and tropical rainforests. How this migration occurred and how humans responded to the physical environments...

In their comment on our paper “Underestimating the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future” (Bradshaw et al., 2021), Bluwstein et al. (2021) attempt to contravene our exposé of the enormous challenges facing the entire human population from a rapidly degrading global environment. While we broadly agree with the need for multi-disciplinary solutions...

Feral cats are some of the most destructive invasive predators worldwide, particularly in insular environments; hence, density-reduction campaigns are often applied to alleviate the predation mortality they add to native fauna. Density-reduction and eradication efforts are costly procedures with important outcomes for native fauna recovery, so they...

The original publication described FosSahul 2.0, the updated version of the FosSahul database comprising collated and quality-rated megafauna fossil ages of the Late Quaternary from Sahul, as well as R code to run the algorithm that rated the quality of each age based on criteria established by Rodríguez-Rey et al. 1. Since the paper was published...

The peopling of Sahul (the combined continent of Australia and New Guinea) represents the earliest continental migration and settlement event of solely anatomically modern humans, but its patterns and ecological drivers remain largely conceptual in the current literature. We present an advanced stochastic-ecological model to test the relative suppo...

The regulation of river systems alters hydrodynamics and often reduces lateral connectivity between river channels and floodplains. For taxa such as frogs that rely on floodplain wetlands to complete their lifecycle, decreasing inundation frequency can reduce recruitment and increase the probability of local extinction. We virtually reconstructed t...

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five funct...

Extinctions stemming from environmental change often trigger trophic cascades and coextinctions. However, it remains unclear whether trophic cascades were a large contributor to the megafauna extinctions that swept across several continents in the Late Pleistocene. The pathways to megafauna extinctions are particularly unclear for Sahul (landmass c...

We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms — including humanity — is in fact so great th...

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although multiple, interacting factors were likely responsible. To test hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as...

The mechanisms leading to megafauna ( >44 kg) extinctions in Late Pleistocene (126,000—12,000 years ago) Australia are highly contested because standard chronological analyses rely on scarce data of varying quality and ignore spatial complexity. Relevant archaeological and palaeontological records are most often also biased by differential preserva...

The 2016 version of the FosSahul database compiled non-human vertebrate megafauna fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013 in a standardised format. Its purpose was to create a publicly available, centralized, and comprehensive database for palaeoecological investigations of the continent. Such databases require regular updates and improvements...

In its invasive range in Australia, the European rabbit threatens the persistence of native flora and fauna and damages agricultural production. Understanding its distribution and ecological niche is critical for developing management plans to reduce populations and avoid further biodiversity and economic losses. We developed an ensemble of species...

The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model usi...

The first peopling of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and the Aru Islands joined at lower sea levels) by anatomically modern humans required multiple maritime crossings through Wallacea, with at least one approaching 100 km. Whether these crossings were accidental or intentional is unknown. Using coastal-viewshed analysis and ocean drift modelling com...

With ongoing introductions into Australia since the 1700s, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) has become one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate pests, adversely impacting Australia's biodiversity and agroeconomy. To understand the population and range dynamics of the species and its impacts better, occurrence and abunda...

The last large marsupial carnivores-the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilis harrisii) and thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus)-went extinct on mainland Australia during the mid-Holocene. Based on the youngest fossil dates (approx. 3500 years before present, BP), these extinctions are often considered synchronous and driven by a common cause. However, many...

The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum are often used to determine whether pa...

It has been difficult to access projections of global-scale climate change with high temporal resolution spaning the late Pleistocene and Holocene. This has limited our ability to discern how climate fluctuations have affected species’ range dynamics and extinction processes, turn-over in ecological communities and changes in genetic diversity. Pal...

Uses of long-term ecological proxies in strategies for mitigating future biodiversity loss are too limited in scope. Recent advances in geochronological dating, palaeoclimate reconstructions and molecular techniques for inferring population dynamics offer exciting new prospects for using retrospective knowledge to better forecast and manage ecologi...

The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Qu...

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet they are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism’s past distributions. We propose a new method to assist f...

Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian diversity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensem...

Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian diversity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensem...

Confidence in fossil ages is a recognized constraint for understanding changes in archaeological and palaeontological records. Poor estimates of age can lead to erroneous inferences—such as timing of species arrival, range expansions and extinctions—preventing robust hypothesis testing of the causes and consequences of past events. Therefore, age r...

To conserve future biodiversity, a better understanding of the likely effects of climate and land‐use change on the geographical distributions of species and the persistence of ecological communities is needed. Recent advances have integrated population dynamic processes into species distribution models ( SDM s), to reduce potential biases in predi...

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21(st) century using a process-based SDM coupled t...

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia –...

AimDespite the recent improvements made in species distribution models (SDMs), assessing species' ability to migrate fast enough to track their climate optimum remains a challenge. This study achieves this goal and demonstrates the reliability of a process-based SDM to provide accurate projections by simulating the post-glacial colonization of Euro...

Paleo-data suggest that East African mountain treelines underwent an altitudinal shift during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Understanding the ecological and physiological processes underlying treeline response to such past climate change will help to improve forecasts of treeline change under future global warming. In spite of significant improve...

Conservation and natural resource managers need information on the potential effects of climate change for the species and ecosystems they manage. We evaluated potential future changes in climate and bioclimatic habitat for ecoregions (as defined by The Nature Conservancy) and managed areas (e.g., national parks) in Oregon, USA. We used future clim...

Phenomenological approaches to model species migration are usually based on kernel-based methods. These methods require a good knowledge of the dispersal agent behavior for a given species. They also calculate the location of individuals independently to each other (except the mother plant) and then suppress some of them according to additional int...