Frederico G. Jayme Jr.

Cedeplar - Federal University of Minas Gerais · Economics and Cedeplar

La literatura sobre estructura productiva y crecimiento económico muestra la relevancia de la industria en la expansión del PIB en países desarrollados y en desarrollo. Estudios recientes indican que el sector de los servicios modernos (servicios profesionales) contribuye a la innovación, al aumento de la productividad y, en consecuencia, al crecim...

This chapter develops a Kaldorian growth model of cumulative and circular causation to study the association between real exchange rate and long-run growth. The innovation is to consider the real exchange rate as an explanatory variable of labour productivity growth, in addition to the Kaldor-Verdoorn mechanism. The argument is that a competitive r...

This paper aims to analyze empirically how manufacturing, disaggregated into subsectors by research and development (R&D) intensity, influences the level of economic complexity (eci). For this, two methods were used: 1) the parametric by Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (pdols) and 2) the non-parametric: a) Data Envelopment Analysis (dea) and b...

O objetivo deste capítulo é o de analisar os impactos da pandemia de covid-19 e as opções de políticas de curto e longo prazos no Brasil. Entender as escolhas e estratégias de políticas, particularmente após o início de 2015, possibilita obter um diagnóstico mais completo dos dilemas da escolha de um projeto de desenvolvimento excludente a partir d...

A obra que ora oferecemos aos leitores, elaborada a várias mãos, tem por objetivo proporcionar uma visão diversificada da pandemia de covid-19 a partir da análise de várias dimensões da vida social fortemente impactadas pela crise sanitária global. Promovemos recortes temáticos conscientes de que os reflexos da crise pandêmica se desdobram em vário...

The publication is divided into two main axes, macroeconomics and development. The articles will be shorter in comparison to a traditional academic paper. However, the analyzes presented will be more in-depth than a newspapers article, but accessible for readers who are not specialists in Economics.

Resumo: Em termos teóricos, o artigo discute a importância do setor de serviços para o aumento da produtividade, inovação e da eficiência produtiva e, consequentemente, sua importância para o crescimento econômico. A hipótese é de que a dinâmica produtiva atual tem estimulado formas de integração entre manufatura e serviços (simbiose) que ultrapass...

This paper aims to discuss the theory of productivity growth and its empirical applications, several authors emphasize the impact of real exchange rate devaluation on productivity. The main research question is: does the real exchange rate have a positive or negative impact on productivity growth? The first step in answering this question is to dis...

The paper investigates whether productivity growth is affected by the rate of growth of income and by that of employment for a representative sample of Latin American countries from the 1980s to the early 2010s. Having post-Kaleckian models as background, the paper empirically assesses the relationship between these variables, which are believed to...

Resumo: O artigo investiga os efeitos de variações do nível da taxa real de câmbio (RER) sobre o desempenho do setor de serviços modernos. A hipótese é que a manutenção de uma RER competitiva contribui para o desempenho desse setor no emprego e no valor adicionado. Para testar essa hipótese, estimamos modelos econométricos com base no Generalised M...

O artigo investiga os efeitos de variações do nível da taxa real de câmbio (RER) sobre o desempenho do setor de serviços modernos. A hipótese é que a manutenção de uma RER competitiva contribui para o desempenho desse setor no emprego e no valor adicionado. Para testar essa hipótese, estimamos modelos econométricos com base no Generalised Method of...

This paper investigates the effects of manufacturing and of the real exchange rate (RER) on real per capita income growth. We use dynamic panel models and the calculation of output and employment multipliers for a diversified sample of countries from 1990 to 2011. Three important results can be highlighted. First, we provide new evidence that manuf...

The literature on productive structure e economic growth shows the relevance of industry in the process of product expansion for both developed e developing countries. Recent studies also suggest that increasing participation of the modern services sector (industrial services) contributes to innovation, productivity, e hence growth. The main goal o...

A literatura sobre estrutura produtiva e crescimento econômico mostra a relevância da indústria no processo de expansão do produto tanto para os países desenvolvidos como para os em desenvolvimento. Estudos recentes também sugerem que o aumento da participação do setor de serviços modernos (serviços industriais) contribui para a inovação, para o au...

This paper investigates the effects of manufacturing and of the real exchange rate (RER) on real per capita income growth. We use dynamic panel models and the calculation of output and employment multipliers for a diversified sample of countries from 1990 to 2011. Three important results can be highlighted. First, we provide new evidence that manuf...

The purpose of this research is to analyze whether the Brazilian economy behaved under a wage-led or profit-led regime between 1960 and 2011, considering a Post-Kaleckian model in a context of external constraints. The time span is limited by data availability (i.e., 2011). To answer the question of whether the Brazilian economy works under a wage-...

O processo de financeirização da economia é cada vez mais claro com o crescimento do papel do crédito na economia, ao mesmo tempo em que alcança do desenvolvimento dos mercados financeiros e as instituições atreladas a ele. Nesse sentido, os desdobramentos regionais também podem ser sentidos, uma vez que o sistema abrange cada vez mais indivíduo...

Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar um modelo macrodinâmico Kaldoriano em que o processo de convergência ou divergência entre o Norte (desenvolvido) e o Sul (em desenvolvimento) é uma função da mudança estrutural e do hiato tecnológico. A participação da indústria na economia do Sul e o hiato tecnológico se tornaram endógenos para explicar a d...

Balance of payments constrained growth models are notable for their longevity. This is especially true for the case of Thirlwall»s Law, which defines that a country»s sustainable growth rate is given by the ratio between the income elasticity of exports and that of imports. In light of this, the current paper explores the hypothesis that the income...

Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar um modelo macrodinâmico Kaldoriano em que o processo de convergência ou divergência entre o Norte (desenvolvido) e o Sul (em desenvolvimento) é uma função da mudança estrutural e do hiato tecnológico. A participação da indústria na economia do Sul e o hiato tecnológico se tornaram endógenos para explicar a d...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the contributions of Celso Furtado regarding the role of exchange rate policy and its relation to the social conflict in the economic growth of peripheral economies. For that, we revisit Furtado's analyses about the Venezuelan case and in The Economic Formation of Brazil. We highlight two main conclusions from su...

1. Introdução O objetivo deste capítulo é apresentar uma discussão sobre o papel da política cambial como instrumento capaz de promover mudança estrutural e, em conse-quência, estimular o crescimento econômico. Para tanto, realizamos um breve diagnóstico da literatura sobre o tema, assim como uma análise da condução da política cambial por parte do...

RESUMO Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar um modelo macrodinâmico Kaldoriano em que o processo de convergência ou divergência entre o Norte (desenvolvido) e o Sul (em desenvolvimento) é uma função da mudança estrutural e do hiato tecnológico. A participação da indústria na economia do Sul e o hiato tecnológico se tornaram endógenos para expli...

This article analyses macroeconomic policies capable of influencing the long-run real exchange rate (RER). In this vein, it identifies economic policy tools that can devalue RER, covering a theoretical issue neglected by the economic literature, which argues that competitive exchange rate enhances growth. After discussing the “Trilemma,” we identif...

Resumo: O objetivo do artigo é discutir o papel da política cambial como instrumento capaz de promover mudança estrutural e, em consequência, estimular o crescimento econômico. Com base na extensa literatura teórica e empírica recente, admite-se que a taxa de câmbio real é uma variável-chave para o crescimento de longo prazo de um país em desenvolv...

This paper presents a new framework for the determinants of real exchange in the long-run in developing and emerging countries (DECs). We assume that currencies should be regarded as an asset. In consequence, dealers in the foreign exchange market play a crucial role on its dynamics. To set our model, we connect the model developed by Kaltenbrunner...

This research analyses, from a Post-Kaleckian perspective, the interactions among the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity and real wages in the Brazilian economy from 1960 to 2011. It adopts the longstanding perspective that demand is the driver of capital accumulation and economic growth. The research comprises the following ste...

The main objective of this paper is to investigate empirically the effects of the tradable productive structure and real exchange rate (RER) on the real per capita income growth rate and economic complexity for a diversified sample of countries. It can be highlighted three contributions in the present work. Firstly, taking in account different tech...

This paper aims at showing that the level of the real exchange rate affects the rate of economic growth. More specifically, we extend the model developed by Araujo and Lima (2007) to derive a balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate analogous to Thirlwall’s Law based on a Pasinettian multi-sector macrodynamic framework in which income elasticiti...

In recent decades, several studies have highlighted the relationship between the development of the financial system and economic growth. Theoretical and empirical analyses suggest that financial system spurs economic growth, generating impacts on income growth and reducing poverty rates. This study investigated the effectiveness of the development...

The aim of this work is to present a model of economic growth, technological gap, structural change and real exchange rate in a formal and theoretical manner, explicitly incorporating the effects of North–South technology gap and the real exchange rate (RER) at a level compatible with its " industrial equilibrium " taking in account the external co...

The debate regarding fiscal policy has given support to the formulation of an economic policy based on control of indebtedness and in persecution of public savings, acting as important support for the economic growth. This paper presents evidence that counter acts this theory of expansionary austerity. A set of panel data regressions is estimated –...

The goal of this paper is to empirically analyse the relationship between the real exchange rate and the growth rate of output. Firstly, we calculate an index of real exchange rate undervaluation, following the relevant literature. Then, using unbalanced (balanced) panel data techniques, we estimate the effect of this index on the rate of output gr...

Este trabalho tem como objetivo inserir a discussão sobre a pobreza e a desigualdade de renda no âmbito da política macroeconômica - representada aqui pelas políticas monetária e fiscal. Para tanto, considera-se a diminuição da taxa de pobreza e a queda no índice de desigualdade de renda como objetivos centrais a serem definidos na formulação e imp...

The article empirically analyses the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and growth rate of output. We first estimate the effect of the index of RER undervaluation on the rate of output growth in two samples of countries from 1978 to 2007. Our contribution is the use of a different dataset that increases the number of countries in the sam...

Resumo O objetivo do trabalho é analisar o problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa da tradição do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada. Mais especificamente, analisar porque existem diferenças entre as elasticidades-renda da demanda por importações e exportações dos países industrializados em desenvolvimento...

This paper examines the structuralist tradition in economics, emphasizing the role that structures play in the economic growth of developing countries. Since the subject at hand is evidently too large to cover in a single article, an emphasis has been brought to bear upon the macroeconomic elements of such a tradition, while also exploring its meth...

RESUMO: O objetivo geral deste artigo é apresentar um modelo de crescimento econômico, hiato tecnológico, mudança estrutural e taxa real de câmbio de maneira teórica e formal incorporando, explicitamente, os efeitos da distância tecnológica Norte-Sul e da taxa real de câmbio (RER) em relação ao seu nível de equilíbrio industrial sobre o crescimento...

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar teórica e empiricamente a relação entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico para as unidades federativas do Brasil. Para tanto, realiza-se um exercício econométrico com o auxílio da técnica de regressão quantílica para o período de 1995 a 2004, o que permite um mapeamento mais completo do impacto...

The aim of this work is to present a model of economic growth, technological gap, structural change and real exchange rate in a formal and theoretical manner, explicitly incorporating the effects of North-South technology gap and the real exchange rate (RER) at a level compatible with its " industrial equilibrium " taking in account the external co...

RESUMO: O objetivo desse artigo é desenvolver um modelo capaz de incorporar os principais problemas enfrentados pelos países periféricos, formalizando sua estrutura e descrevendo seu processo de desenvolvimento. Embora o foco do trabalho seja a dinâmica de funcionamento das economias subdesenvolvidas, é possível verificar que o modelo é também capa...

The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structure a list model that com- bines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlw...

BC independente de quem, cara pálida? No mundo real, a política monetária afeta preços, mas também, e principalmente, níveis de emprego e renda. São os agentes privados os responsáveis pelo investimento e pelo crescimento econômico.

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the impact of selected export promoting policies on the real exchange rate in Brazil. Currently, there are a number of policy instruments that generate fiscal and financial benefits to Brazilian exporters. These instruments can be viewed as mechanisms to alter the real exchange rate with which exporters...

The aim of this paper is to show, theoretically and empirically, that maintaining an undervalued real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries. We analyse the relationship between growth, the exchange rate and productive heterogeneity by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model. We base ourselves on the Bhaduri a...

This work assesses the impact of macroeconomic cycles on poverty composition in the Brazilian economy (1987 – 2005). Specifically, it intends to find answers to three questions: first, who are the demographic groups that are most harmed in the recessive cycles; second, if economic growth in itself sufficient to benefit the groups most associated wi...

Considering the Post Keynesian framework, money is a key element to determine output and employment, both aggregate and at a regional level. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of both the localization strategy of banking services as well as the distribution pattern of branches in the state of Minas Gerais. There was strong evidence...

The aim of this paper is to show that the level of the real exchange rate affects the rate of economic growth. More specifically, we extend the model developed by Araujo and Lima (2007) to derive a balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate analogous to Thirlwall’s Law based on a Pasinettian multi-sector macrodynamic framework in which income elas...

The aim of this paper is to present some considerations about the relationship among exchange rates, external constraints and economic growth in a formal model that considers two regions, one of developed and the other of developing countries, which interact via international trade. It is assumed that the external constraint acts on the developing...

The aim of this paper is to present some considerations about the relationship among exchange rates, external constraints and economic growth in a formal model that considers two regions, one of developed and the other of developing countries, which interact via international trade. It is assumed that the external constraint acts on the developing...

Resumo: O objetivo do trabalho é analisar o problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa da tradição do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada. Mais especificamente, analisar porque existem diferenças entre as elasticidades-renda da demanda por importações e exportações dos países industrializados em desenvolvimento...

Resumo: O objetivo do trabalho é analisar o problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa da tradição do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada. Mais especificamente, analisar porque existem diferenças entre as elasticidades-renda da demanda por importações e exportações dos países industrializados em desenvolvimento...

Resumo: O objetivo do trabalho é analisar o problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa da tradição do crescimento puxado pela demanda agregada. Mais especificamente, analisar porque existem diferenças entre as elasticidades-renda da demanda por importações e exportações dos países industrializados em desenvolvimento...

The aim of this paper is analyze the elasticity in balance of payments constrained models on Keynesian-structuralist tradition. Precisely, we intend to scrutinize why income demand elasticity of imports and exports are different between emerging and developed countries. We start from the benchmark Thirlwal (1979)'s model, emphasizing the role of...

According to recent studies, shocks over aggregated variables imply in differentiated impacts over economic system, affecting more some agents and sectors than others according to their characteristics. Theoretically, the mechanisms that differentiate shocks effects over economic agents are the variations in relative prices of inputs and output, th...

This paper proposes a brief theoretical analysis of the relationship between international capital mobility and economic growth, seen in the perspective of demand-led growth. The study presents the central propositions that constitute the so-called demand-led growth perspective. It reviews the balance-of-payments constrained growth model, as origin...

The recent debt crisis in Greece, Ireland and Portugal has exposed the fragility existing in the Eurozone for promoting development and economic convergence between the countries that have adopted the currency. Way beyond the fear of insolvency, what is observed is a growing disparity of the most-developed countries in comparison to the less-develo...

The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically therelationship between real exchange rate and rate of output growth. Firstly is calculated the index of undervaluation of the real exchange rate following Rodrik (2007). Then, using the technique of unbalanced panel data (balanced), we estimate the effect of this index on the rate of output growth...

This paper discusses and assesses the features of the Brazilian Financial System, as well as the impacts of Liquidity Preference on Regional Development in Brazil. In the post-Keynesian literature, money is considered endogenous to the economic system, introduced in the economic activity through the credit provided by banks. Taken as non-neutral, b...

As discussões sobre a pobreza sempre estiveram presentes no âmbito da teoria econômica. Contudo, são relativamente escassos, ainda mais na literatura brasileira, trabalhos que relacionam a pobreza ao desempenho macroeconômico mesmo sendo senso comum a relevância da atividade econômica para a determinação da condição de pobreza. Assim sendo, o prese...

RESUMO – Os freqüentes desequilíbrios na balança comercial das economias em desenvolvimento decorrem da desigual geração e difusão de progresso técnico nestas economias em relação às economias desenvolvidas. Esse atraso se traduz em hiatos de tecnologias entre o bloco dos países desenvolvidos e as economias em desenvolvimento, criando, para estas ú...

O objetivo deste trabalho e fazer um breve diagnostico da infraestrutura de transporte no Brasil e discutir teorica e empiricamente o papel dos gastos com infraestrutura no setor para o desenvolvimento regional do pais durante periodo de 1986-2003. A hipotese do trabalho e que os gastos publicos com infraestrutura de transporte sao produtivos e dec...

RESUMO: Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar empiricamente a relação entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico para as Unidades Federativas do Brasil. Para tanto, realizou-se um exercício econométrico com o auxílio da técnica de regressão quantílica, o que permitiu um mapeamento mais completo do impacto gerado pelas medidas de des...

O objetivo deste ensaio e discutir as principais diretrizes da politica economica durante o governo Lula, destacando em especial a mudanca de orientacao ocorrida a partir de 2006, avaliando-se, em seguida, os efeitos dessas mudancas de formulacao de politica economica sobre o crescimento do PIB e tambem sobre indicadores selecionados de mercado de...

The recent debt crisis in Greece, Ireland and Portugal has exposed the fragility existing in the Euro zone for promoting development and economic convergence between the countries that have adopted the currency. Way beyond the fear of insolvency, what is observed is a growing disparity of the most-developed countries in comparison to the less-devel...

The aim of this chapter is to demonstrate that, especially in developing countries, changes in the real exchange rate affect both the structure of production and the income elasticities of the demand for imports and exports — and, as a result, the balance of payments constraint to growth*. If the latter is weakened, then these countries are able to...

Thi s article argues that differences in gdp growth rates are related to differences in income-elasticities; and that these, in turn, depend on the technological intensity of domestic production. Statistical tests were conducted to verify this hypothesis; and the following hypothetical elasticities were estimated to demonstrate its validity for the...

According to recent studies, shocks on aggregated variables are associated with unequal impacts on the economic system, affecting more some agents and sectors than others according, depending on their characteristics. Theoretically, the mechanisms that differentiate shocks’ effects on economic agents are the variations in relative prices of inputs...

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that, especially in developing countries, changes in the real exchange rate affect both the structure of production and the income elasticities of the demand for imports and exports – and, as a result, the balance-of-payments constraint to growth in the fashion of Thirlwall’s Law. If the latter is weakened, t...

O presente trabalho objetiva analisar empiricamente as relações entre crescimento econômico e abertura da conta financeira do balanço de pagamentos, tendo como lementos centrais a restrição imposta pelo Balanço de Pagamentos ao crescimento econômico, bem como s dificuldades associadas à mensuração da mobilidade de capitais. A partir da utilização d...

A moeda e os bancos, na abordagem pós-keynesiana, desempenham um papel central na determinação do emprego e produto, notadamente, em nível regional. Em função disso, o artigo tem por objetivo contribuir para a compreensão, tanto da estratégia de localização dos serviços bancários como do padrão de distribuição das agências bancárias no estado de Mi...

The aim of this paper is to show theoretically and empirically that undervalued real exchange rate has positive effects over economic growth on developing countries. We analyze the relationship between growth, exchange rate and productive heterogeneity by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model. We depart from the Bhaduri and Marglin model, which...

This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...

This paper aims at analyzing the relationship between economic growth and financial development on theoretical and empirical grounds. We briefly review the arguments that support the existence or not of a positive and causal relation between these two variables, as well as the arguments that outline the role and influence of financial developmen...

This paper aims at exploring theoretically the literature regarding capital flows liberalization and economic growth. Precisely, we intend to analyze the role of capital controls over economic growth. Mainstream literature discard capital controls as an alternative to foster economic growth, although admits, in few situations, temporarily quantitat...

Capital mobility and economic growth: towards a theoretical synthesis - This paper aims at exploring theoretically the literature regarding capital flows liberalization and economic growth. Precisely, we intend to analyze the role of capital controls over economic growth. Mainstream literature discard capital controls as an alternative to foster ec...

This paper aims at analyzing the impacts of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) on total expenditures across municipalities in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. To accomplish the objectives of the paper, we analyzed the situation before and after the Law using a dynamic panel. There was convergence on expenditure and investments after the advent o...

This paper aims at analyzing theoretically and empirically the role of infrastructure expenditure on economic growth in Brazil from 1986 to 2003. The hypothesis is that public infrastructure expenditures in transport are central to foster sustainable growth in Brazil. Theoretical and empirical literature highlights the fact that this type of invest...

This paper aims to analyze the relation among exchange rate, distribution and economic growth from a short-term Keynesian-structuralist perspective. The domestic absorption is the cornerstone of the analysis, inasmuch as an exchange rate devaluation leads to an expansionist result in the profit-led accumulation regime and a contractionist outcome i...