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Introduction
Skills and Expertise
Current institution
Publications
Publications (276)
We propose a cross-nested logit (CNL) approach to investigate how individuals adjust their migration decisions in response to changes in the global landscape. In contrast to the widely used logit model, the CNL enables more intricate substitution patterns among destinations. Leveraging migration aspiration data from India, we demonstrate that the C...
Existing empirical literature provides converging evidence that selective emigration enhances human capital accumulation in the world's poorest countries. However, the within-country distribution of such brain gain effects has received limited attention. Focusing on Senegal, we provide evidence that the brain gain mechanism primarily benefits the w...
We argue that market forces shaped the geographic distribution of upper-tail human capital across Europe during the Middle Ages, and contributed to bolstering universities at the dawn of the Humanistic and Scientific Revolutions. We build a unique database of thousands of scholars from university sources covering all of Europe, construct an index o...
Throughout our project on premodern academia, we use a heuristic human capital index to measure each scholar’s quality. This index is built by combining several statistics from individual Wikipedia and Worldcat pages. The question we address here is whether this measure is correlated with the actual wages professors received. This note is a technic...
General equilibrium models are frequently used to estimate the effect of immigration on welfare and inequality in the host country. Existing studies differ in the way they formalize the labor market implications for natives, which in turn govern the strength of the other transmission mechanisms. To assess the extent to which the choice of the labor...
Background
Assessing the impact of government responses to Covid-19 is crucial to contain the pandemic and improve preparedness for future crises. We investigate here the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and infection threats on the daily evolution of cross-border movements of people during the Covid-19 pandemic. We use a unique da...
Background: Detections of mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus gave rise to new packages of interventions. Among them, international travel restrictions have been one of the fastest and most visible responses to limit the spread of the variants. While inducing large economic losses, the epidemiological consequences of such travel restrictions are high...
This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on global migration and inequality. Accounting for the effects of changing temperatures, sea levels, and the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, we model the impact of climate change on productivity and utility in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. By endogenizing...
We use a multilevel approach to investigate whether a general and robust relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions can be uncovered in Western African countries. We combine individual survey data with measures of localized weather shocks for 13 countries over the 2008–2016 period. A meta-analysis on r...
We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg. The model has been used to produce nowcasts and forecasts at various stages of the crisis. We focus here on two key moments in time, namely the d...
How do weather shocks influence human mobility and poverty, and how will long-term climate change affect future migration over the course of the 21st century? These questions have gained unprecedented attention in public debates as global warming is already having severe impacts around the world, and prospects for the coming decades get worse. Low-...
Background
We use a unique database on Facebook users’ mobility to study the daily evolution of cross-border movements of people during the Covid-19 pandemic. To limit censoring issues, we focus on 45 pairs of European countries, and document the changes in daily traffic during an entire pandemic year. We rely on regression and machine learning mod...
In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal...
This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct backcasting and nowcasting exerc...
We build a new database documenting the evolution of physician migration over a period of 25 years (1990-2014), and use it to empirically shed light on its determinants. In relative terms, the highest emigration rates are observed in small island nations and low-income countries, where needs-based deficits of healthcare workers are often estimated...
From the perspective of sending countries, international migrants are positively selected in terms of schooling, particularly in low-income countries. While emigration affects human capital accumulation, it also induces positive spin-offs in the form of remittances, incentives to acquire education, and diffusion of technology and democratic ideas....
Globally increasing migration pressures call for new modelling approaches in order to design effective policies. It is important to have not only efficient models to predict migration flows but also to understand how specific parameters influence these flows. In this paper, we propose an artificial neural network (ANN) to model international migrat...
We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg and in the Greater Region. The model has a weekly structure and covers the whole year 2020. With a limited number of parameters, the model is cali...
Census data provide detailed information about population characteristics at a coarse resolution. Nevertheless, fine-grained, high-resolution mappings of population counts are increasingly needed to characterize population dynamics and to assess the consequences of climate shocks, natural disasters, investments in infrastructure, development polici...
We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is con...
We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is con...
This paper revisits the question of how brain drain affects the optimal education policy of a developing economy. Our framework of analysis highlights the complementarity between public spending on education and students' efforts to acquire human capital in response to career opportunities at home and abroad. Given this complementarity, we find tha...
This paper empirically investigates the impact of birthplace diversity on economic growth. We use panel data on US states over the 1960–2010 period. This rich data set allows us to better deal with endogeneity issues and to conduct a large set of robustness checks. Our results suggest that diversity among college-educated immigrants positively affe...
This article empirically investigates whether emigrants from MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries self-select along two cultural traits: religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. Using Gallup World Poll data on individual opinions and beliefs and migration aspirations, we find that individuals who intend to emigrate to high-income coun...
Census data provide detailed information about population characteristics at a coarse resolution. Nevertheless, fine-grained, high-resolution mappings of population counts are increasingly needed to characterize population dynamics and to assess the consequences of climate shocks, natural disasters, investments in infrastructure, development polici...
This paper revisits the effect of brain drain on development and inequality using a two-sector model with formal and informal labor markets. Contrary to existing studies, we use a search-and-matching setting that allows to endogenize the employment structure and the wage differentials between different skill groups in the same sector, and between w...
This paper analyzes the factors underlying the evolution of the worldwide distribution of skills and their implications for global inequality. We develop and parameterize a two-sector, two-class, world economy model that endogenizes education and mobility decisions, population growth, and income disparities across and within countries. First, our s...
The labor force of each industrial country is being shaped by three forces: ageing, education and migration. Drawing on a new database for the OECD countries and a standard analytical framework, this paper focuses on the relative and aggregate effects of these three forces on wages across different skill and age groups over 2000–2010. The variation...
Ces dernières semaines, des milliers de migrants syriens et irakiens ont rejoint l'Europe pour tenter d'y obtenir le statut de réfugié politique. Selon toute vraisemblance, la Belgique pourrait en accueillir entre 25.000 et 30.000 en 2015. Bien que notre politique d'asile n'ait pas pour vocation de renforcer notre compétitivité ou d'améliorer le bi...
Contexte. Au cours des derniers mois, de plus en plus de personnes (politiciens, journalistes et syndicalistes par exemple) se sont émus des politiques d’immigration sélectives mises en place dans plusieurs pays industrialisés. En France, ce type de politique est notamment préconisé par Nicolas Sarkozy (politique d’immigration choisie). L’indignati...
L’accord gouvernemental du 19 juillet 2009 a défini les critères permettant la régularisation des demandeurs d’asile en Belgique (engagement dans une procédure juridique déraisonnablement longue, situation humanitaire urgente, prise en compte de la faculté d’intégration sociale et économique). Certaines prévisions font état d’environ 25.000 demande...
L’accord gouvernemental du 19 juillet 2009 a défini les critères permettant la régularisation des demandeurs d’asile en Belgique (engagement dans une procédure juridique déraisonnablement longue, situation humanitaire urgente, prise en compte de la faculté d’intégration sociale et économique). Certaines prévisions font état d’environ 25.000 demande...
Contexte. Au cours des derniers mois, de plus en plus de personnes (politiciens, journalistes et syndicalistes par exemple) se sont émus des politiques d’immigration sélectives mises en place dans plusieurs pays industrialisés. En France, ce type de politique est notamment préconisé par Nicolas Sarkozy (politique d’immigration choisie). L’indignati...
Ces dernières semaines, des milliers de migrants syriens et irakiens ont rejoint l'Europe pour tenter d'y obtenir le statut de réfugié politique. Selon toute vraisemblance, la Belgique pourrait en accueillir entre 25.000 et 30.000 en 2015. Bien que notre politique d'asile n'ait pas pour vocation de renforcer notre compétitivité ou d'améliorer le bi...
MOOC : Regards croisés sur les migrations
Ce cours en ligne croise les regards des anthropologues, démographes, économistes, juristes, psychologues sociaux et sociologues. Inscrivez-vous dès maintenant
Description
« La migration fait partie de l’ADN de l’humanité. La migration est une réponse normale aux défis économiques, politiques, sociaux et...
« La migration fait partie de l’ADN de l’humanité. La migration est une réponse normale aux défis économiques, politiques, sociaux et environnementaux. Tant qu’il y aura des différentiels de développement et de démocratie sur notre planète, il y aura des mouvements migratoires. »
Ces mots sont de François Crépeau, le Rapporteur spécial des Nation...
We investigate the welfare implications of two pre-crisis immigration waves (1991–2000 and 2001–2010) and of the post-crisis wave (2011–2015) for OECD native citizens. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for the main channels of transmission of immigration shocks – the employment and wage effects, the fiscal effect and th...
We develop a dynamic model of the world economy that jointly endogenizes individual decisions about fertility, education and migration. We then use it to compare the short- and long-term effects of immigration restrictions on the world distribution of income. Our calibration strategy replicates the economic and demographic characteristics of the wo...
In this paper I develop a stylized model of the world economy and use it to explain the long-run trends in international migration. The model very well fits the trends of the last 40 years which are mainly governed by the evolution of population disparities between industrialized and developing countries. Then I provide migration projections for th...
This paper empirically revisits the impact of birthplace diversity on economic growth. We use panel data on US states over the 1960-2010 period. This rich data set allows us to better deal with endogeneity issues and to conduct a large set of robustness checks. Our results suggest that diversity among college-educated immigrants positively affects...
Emigration first increases and then decreases as a country experiences economic development. This inverted U-shaped, cross-sectional relationship between emigration and development was first hypothesized by Zelinsky's theory of the mobility transition. Although several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the upward segment of the curve (the mo...
Whereas the impact of trade relations on conflict has been studied extensively, this is not the case for the impact of international migration. The latter might influence the size of expected costs and benefits, and hence the likelihood of military conflict between countries. In this paper, we discuss the channels through which bilateral migration...
This paper provides worldwide projections of population, educational attainment, international migration and income for the twenty first century. We develop and parametrize a dynamic, stylized model of the world economy that accounts for interdependencies between socio-demographic and economic variables. Our baseline scenario is in line with the ‘h...
Using a growth theory perspective, this paper summarizes the recent advances on the bidirectional links between emigration and development. Taken at face value, the stylized facts suggest that (i) helping poor countries to develop can relax credit constraints and lead to massive migration pressures, and (ii) increasing migration can spur the brain...
Résumé
Au moment même où le processus d'intégration monétaire européen se rapproche d'échéances importantes, plusieurs pays se trouvent dans une situation d'endettement préoccupante. La réduction des déficits et de la dette publique est devenue un des principaux objectifs de politique économique et ce, d'autant plus que le Traité de Maastricht reti...
This paper shows that governance quality promotes positive net inflows of high-skilled migrants. Home and foreign institutions influence both inflows and outflows, thus determining the net flows of college graduate migrants. Therefore, institutions can affect human capital through migration flows. Our empirical strategy is based on a random utility...
This paper characterizes the recent evolution of the geographic distribution of talent, and studies its implications for development inequality. Assuming the continuation of recent educational and immigration policies, it produces integrated projections of income, population, urbanization and human capital for the 21st century. To do so, we develop...
This article provides an overview of the research activities that have been conducted at IRES over the last ten years on the relationships between high-skilled emigration, human capital accumulation and economic growth in developing countries. It provides stylized facts on the magnitude of the brain drain in the beginning of the 21st century, and a...
This paper quantifies the effect of global migration on the welfare of non-migrant OECD citizens. We develop an integrated, multi-country model that accounts for the interactions between the labor market, fiscal, and market size effects of migration, as well as for trade relations between countries. The model is calibrated to match the economic and...
p>One of the most salient features of developing economies is the existence of a large informal sector. This paper uses quantitative theory to study the dynamic implications of informality on wage inequality, human capital accumulation, child labor and long-run growth. Our model can generate transitory informality equilibria or informality-induced...
In this study, we quantify the labour market effects of migration flows in OECD countries during the 1990s based on a new global database on the bilateral stock of migrants, by education level. We simulate various outcomes using an aggregate model of labour markets, parameterised by a range of estimates from the literature. We find that immigration...
International migration is an important determinant of institutions, not considered so far in the development literature. Using cross-sectional and panel estimation for a large sample of developing countries, we find that openness to emigration (as measured by the natives’ average emigration rate) has a positive effect on home-country institutional...
Depuis la seconde guerre mondiale, les taux d’immigration ont fortement
augmenté dans les pays riches, et le contrôle de l’immigration est devenu un enjeu politique majeur. Cet article fournit des projections mondiales de flux migratoires pour le 21ème siècle. Pour ce faire, nous développons et calibrons un modèle dynamique stylisé de l’économie m...
Discussions of high-skilled mobility typically evoke migration patterns from poorer to wealthier countries, which ignore movements to and between developing countries. This paper presents, for the first time, a global overview of human capital mobility through bilateral migration stocks by gender and education in 1990 and 2000, and calculation of n...
This paper studies the effect of liberalizing the international mobility of college-
educated workers on the world economy. First, we combine data on effective and desired
migration to identify the net pool of foreign talents (NPFT) of selected high-income countries. So far, the EU15 has poorly benefited from its NPFT while the US has mobilized a
l...
In this study, we use cross-country bilateral data to quantify a two-step process of international migration and its aggregate determinants. We first analyze which country-specific factors affect the probability that individuals join the pool of potential (aspiring) migrants. Then, we consider the bilateral and destination country factors that affe...
Brain drain is a major issue for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Econometric analysis confirms that smallness has a strong positive impact per se on emigration rates. On average, 50 % of the high-skilled labour force in SIDS has left their country, and the brain drain exceeds 75 % in a few cases. In this paper, we document this phenomenon an...
This chapter describes how institutional quality can be measured, quantifies the correlation between institutional and economic developments, and reviews and discusses the literature on the causal impact of institutions on growth. Identifying a causal effect of institutions on development, and understanding the technology of the transmission of ins...
Contract theory qualifies legal origins theory by focusing on codified default rules, which ease the conclusion of enforceable contracts. We have selected ten economically important codified contract types containing default rules and eight paradigm countries in one or two of three categories: mother countries of legal origins, financial centers, o...
In this paper, we identify and quantify the role of international migration in the propagation of HIV across sub-Saharan African countries. We use panel data on bilateral migration flows and HIV prevalence rates covering 44 countries after 1990. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, reverse causality, reflection issues, incorrect treatment of c...
This paper quantitatively investigates the short- and long-run effects of liberalizing global
migration on the world distribution of income. We develop and parametrize a dynamic model
of the world economy with endogenous migration, fertility and education decisions. We identify bilateral migration costs and their legal component for each pair of co...
The proportion of foreign-born people in rich countries has tripled since 1960, and the emigration of high-skilled people from poor countries has accelerated. Many countries intensify their efforts to attract and retain foreign students, which increases the risk of brain drain in the sending countries. In poor countries, this transfer can change th...
This article quantifies the impact of immigration and emigration on wages and employment rates of natives in the EU15 member states. The analysis is based on the generally admitted model of factor shares with endogenous total productivity and labor supply. For all EU15 member states, simulations show that immigration has generated effects which are...
This paper quantifies the effect of a complete liberalization of international migration on the world GDP and its distribution across regions. We build a general equilibrium model endogenizing bilateral migration and wage disparities between and within countries. A dual strategy is developed to identify total migration costs and their legal compone...
This chapter reviews the channels through which skilled emigration can affect the source countries. Recent literature suggests that remittances, return migration, diaspora externalities, and network effects favouring international transactions and technology diffusion, as well as brain gain channels, may compensate the sending countries for their l...
