Fred Mannering

Fred Mannering
University of South Florida | USF · Civil and Environmental Engineering

PhD MIT

About

230
Publications
65,372
Reads
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21,862
Citations
Citations since 2016
73 Research Items
13487 Citations
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Introduction
Fred Mannering is Executive Director of the Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR) and a Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering (with a courtesy appointment in Economics) at the University of South Florida. He received his doctorate from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His research interests are in the application of econometric and statistical methods to a variety of engineering problems, highway safety, transportation economics, and travel behavior.
Additional affiliations
June 2001 - July 2015
Purdue University
Position
  • Charles Pankow Professor
June 1992 - August 1993
University of California, Davis
Position
  • Professor
December 1986 - June 2001
University of Washington Seattle
Position
  • Professor (Full)
Education
August 1979 - May 1983
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Field of study
  • Civil Engineering
August 1977 - May 1979
Purdue University
Field of study
  • Civil Engineering
August 1972 - May 1976
University of Saskatchewan
Field of study
  • Civil Engineering

Publications

Publications (230)
Article
The analysis of highway-crash data has long been used as a basis for influencing highway and vehicle designs, as well as directing and implementing a wide variety of regulatory policies aimed at improving safety. And, over time there has been a steady improvement in statistical methodologies that have enabled safety researchers to extract more info...
Article
Highway accidents are complex events that involve a variety of human responses to external stimuli, as well as complex interactions between the vehicle, roadway features/condition, traffic-related factors, and environmental conditions. In addition, there are complexities involved in energy dissipation (once an accident has occurred) that relate to...
Article
Full-text available
Virtually every statistical analysis of highway safety data is predicated on the assumption that the estimated model parameters are temporally stable. That is, the assumption that the effect of the determinants of accident likelihoods and resulting accident-injury severities do not change over time. This paper draws from research previously conduct...
Article
The analysis of highway accident data is largely dominated by traditional statistical methods (standard regression-based approaches), advanced statistical methods (such as models that account for unobserved heterogeneity), and data-driven methods (artificial intelligence, neural networks, machine learning, and so on). These methods have been applie...
Article
Random parameters logit models have become an increasingly popular method to investigate crash-injury severities in recent years. However, there remain potential elements of the approach that need clarification including out-of-sample prediction, the calculation of marginal effects, and temporal instability testing. In this study, four models are c...
Article
Full-text available
The rapid technological advancements in video analytics and the availability of big data have made traffic conflict techniques a viable tool for road safety assessments. They can potentially overcome many major limitations of conventional road safety practices that use crash-data analyses. However, the current traffic conflict techniques flag serio...
Preprint
Full-text available
The rapid technological advancements in video analytics and the availability of big data have made traffic conflict techniques a viable tool for road safety assessments. They can potentially overcome many major limitations of conventional road safety practices that use crash-data analyses. However, the current traffic conflict techniques flag serio...
Preprint
Full-text available
Big data can help government agencies better make equity-related decisions in transportation systems. However, the lack of disaggregated big data is an obstacle to inform policy actions. In this paper, we review data sources that can be used to investigate transportation equity. Following the general three-step framework for transportation equity o...
Article
Asleep/fatigued driving has proven to be a serious and persistent highway-safety problem. This study investigates aspects of this problem by studying the temporal changes in driver-injury severities in single-vehicle crashes that involve asleep/fatigued driving. To do this, random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and v...
Article
Full-text available
Traffic conflict techniques are a viable alternative to crash-based safety assessments and are particularly well suited to evaluating emerging technologies such as connected and automated vehicles for which crash data are sparsely available. Recently, the use of multiple traffic conflict indicators has become common in methodological studies, yet i...
Article
Over the last few decades, interstate speed limits in different US states have been increased from 70 mi/h to 75 mi/h or 80 mi/h, even to 85 mi/h in some instances. The implication of such speed limit increases on crash likelihoods and resulting injury severities is a key concern. To understand the impact of speed limit increases on no-injury and i...
Article
This study explores temporal shifts in the effects of explanatory variables on the injury severity outcomes of crashes involving distracted driving. Using data from distracted driving crashes on Kansas State highways over a four-year period (from 2014 to 2017 inclusive), separate yearly models of driver-injury severities (with possible outcomes of...
Article
In recent years, US States have raised their maximum interstate speed limits from 70 mi/h to 75 mi/h, 80 mi/h and even 85 mi/h. However, understanding the effect that these higher speed limits have had on the frequency and severity of crashes using traditional before and after analyses has been difficult due to possible temporal shifts in driver be...
Article
This study explores the differences between day and night pedestrian-injury severities in vehicle-pedestrian crashes over a five-year period using data from the state of Kansas. Separate statistical models (random parameters logit models with possible heterogeneity in the means and variances of the random parameters) were estimated for day and nigh...
Article
Full-text available
Responses to the COVID–19 pandemic have dramatically transformed industry, healthcare, mobility, and education. Many workers have been forced to shift to work-from-home, adjust their commute patterns, and/or adopt new behaviors. Particularly important in the context of mitigating transportation-related emissions is the shift to work-from-home. This...
Article
Full-text available
Relative to safety assessment using data from observed crashes, conflict-based road safety assessment can potentially provide additional insights into crash causation processes. Despite numerous review studies on this topic, the application context of conflict measures has been generally overlooked. This study conducts a systematic review of confli...
Article
Fingerprint examiners maintain decision thresholds that represent the amount of evidence required for an identification or exclusion conclusion. As measured by error rate studies (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011;108(19):7733–8), these decision thresholds currently exhibit a preference for preventing erroneous identification errors at the expense of pr...
Article
The effect of inappropriate speed adjustment to adverse conditions on crash-injury severities, and how this effect might vary across male and female drivers, and over time, is not well understood. To study this, single-vehicle crashes occurring in rainy weather, where speed too fast for conditions is a driver action identified as a contributing fac...
Article
Lane-changing maneuvers on highways may cause capacity drops, create shock waves, and potentially increase collision risks. Properly managing lane-changing behavior to reduce these adverse impacts requires an understanding of their determinants. This paper investigates the determinants of lane changing in congested traffic using a next generation s...
Article
Due to the high costs associated with maintaining and upgrading water infrastructure systems, selecting an appropriate water rate to charge for water service is an important step for water utilities. Understanding the consumption patterns under different rate conditions is important because revenues generated from consumers form the backbone of wat...
Article
The high fatality rates of motorcyclists relative to other motorized forms of highway transportation has been a focus of engineers and safety policies for many years. One of the most popular approaches to improve motorcycle safety has been to design training courses to improve riding competence. However, the effectiveness of these courses and the i...
Article
Full-text available
Limitations of crash data and crash-based methods have given rise to the study of alternate measures of safety that are not predicated on the occurrence of a crash such as traffic conflicts. The popularity of these alternative safety measures will likely play a prominent role in road safety analysis in the forthcoming era of connected and autonomou...
Article
This paper investigates factors that significantly contribute to the injury severity of different drivers of different nationality backgrounds. Using the data from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a random parameters multinomial logit model of driver-injury severity was estimated to explore the effects of a wide range of variables on driver injury-severity ou...
Preprint
Full-text available
Lane-changing maneuvers on highways may cause capacity drops, create shock waves, and potentially increase collision risks. Properly managing lane-changing behavior to reduce these adverse impacts requires an understanding of their determinants. This paper investigates the determinants of lane-changing in congested traffic using a Next Generation S...
Article
In the state of Florida, work-zone related crashes and their resulting injury severities have been increasing recently, particularly over the 2015 to 2017 time period. In the current study, we seek to provide insights into the factors that have been influencing this trend. Using work zone data from the 2012 to 2017 time period, resulting driver-inj...
Article
Full-text available
The renting of personal vehicles for monetary compensation (peer-to-peer carsharing or abbreviated as P2P carsharing) has become increasingly popular in the U.S. In applications, the fleet of peer-to-peer carsharing vehicles typically consists of personally owned vehicles identified and coordinated by a third-party company. However, little is known...
Article
Aggressive driving has become a national traffic-safety concern, with increasing congestion and other stress-inducing factors making it more likely drivers take out their frustrations by driving aggressively. Looking at single-vehicle crashes, this study investigates differences between resulting crash-injury severities when aggressive and non-aggr...
Article
While automated vehicle (AV) development continues to progress rapidly, how the public will accept and adopt automated vehicles remains an open question. Using extensive survey data, we apply cluster analysis to better understand consumer perceptions toward potential benefits and concerns related to AVs with regard to factors influencing their AV a...
Article
Introduction Recent disruptions in the transportation sector, such as the growing popularity of ridesourcing services, have substantially impacted traditional transportation services (such as taxis). However, the factors that determine usage rates of ridesourcing options are still not fully understood. The intent of the current paper is to develop...
Chapter
Count data consist of non-negative integer values and are encountered frequently in the modeling of transportation-related phenomenon. Examples of count data variables in transportation include the number of driver route changes per week, the number of trip departure changes per week, drivers' frequency-of-use of ITS technologies over some time per...
Chapter
There is a class of transportation-related problems that involve interrelated discrete and continuous data. Examples include consumers’ choice of the type of vehicle to own (discrete) and the number of kilometers to drive it (continuous), choice of route (discrete) and driving speed (continuous), and choice of trip-generating activity (discrete) an...
Chapter
Discrete or nominal scale data often play a dominant role in transportation because many interesting policy-sensitive analyses deal with such data. Examples of discrete data in transportation include the mode of travel (automobile, bus, rail transit), the type of vehicle owned, and the type of a vehicular accident (run-off-road, rear-end, head-on,...
Chapter
Traditionally, statistical and econometric models have been estimated using cross-sectional or time-series data. In an increasing number of applications, however, there is availability of data based on cross sections of individuals observed over time (or other observational units such as firms, geographic entities, and so on). These data, which com...
Chapter
Unobserved heterogeneity is often captured with random parameters approaches, but such approaches require a distributional assumption (reflecting how the unobserved heterogeneity affected parameters across observations). An alternate way to account for unobserved heterogeneity across observations is to search for groups of observations that share t...
Chapter
A number of assumptions or requirements must be substantively met in order for the linear regression model parameters to be Best Linear Unbiased Estimators (BLUE). That is, parameters must be unbiased, asymptotically efficient, and consistent. This chapter discusses in detail the consequences of violating one or more of the six main regression mode...
Chapter
This chapter gives a detailed presentation of linear regression, one of the most widely studied and applied statistical and econometric techniques in transportation data analysis. The chapter discusses linear regression’s suitability for modeling a wide variety of relationships between variables and the ease of which it results can be interpreted a...
Chapter
This chapter focuses on the presentation and analysis of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models for forecasting time-series that are mathematical models of the persistence, or autocorrelation (correlation across values), in a time series. Unlike the use of time series in regression, ARIMA models describe the behavior...
Chapter
This chapter presents various methods and techniques for summarizing and interpreting data. The discussion begins with an examination of numerical descriptive measures including relative standing, central tendency, variability, skewness and kurtosis and association. The chapter also provides an extensive overview of the properties of estimators inc...
Chapter
In many instances, one encounters the need to study the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event or the duration of an event. Data such as these are referred to as duration data and are encountered often in the field of transportation research. Examples include the time until a vehicle accident occurs, the time between vehicle purchases, the t...
Chapter
Time series models have been the focus of considerable research and development in recent years in many disciplines, including transportation. This interest stems from the insights that are gained when observing and analyzing the behavior of a variable over time with a time series being a sequence of observations arranged by their time of outcome....
Chapter
In traditional univariate modeling approaches, a single dependent variable is modeled as a function of independent variables. However, there are instances where two or more dependent variables depend on each other or share commonly shared unobserved characteristics. If this is the case, bivariate and multivariate dependent variable models are appro...
Chapter
Many transportation data analyses deal with discrete data that are ordered. Examples include situations where respondents are asked for quantitative ratings (for example, on a scale from 1 to 10 rate the following), ordered opinions (for example, do you disagree, are neutral, or agree), or categorical frequency data (for example property damage onl...
Chapter
Traditional modeling approaches treat estimated parameters as constant across observations. That is, the effect of any individual explanatory variable (in the X vector) is the same for each observation or individual. However, this fixed-parameter assumption may be incorrect because of unobserved factors that may vary from one observation/individual...
Chapter
This chapter presents tools for illuminating relationships between variables in the data (including direct or causal relationships, indirect or mediated relationships, and associations) in the presence of measurement difficulties, endogeneity, and unobservable or latent variables. Examples of latent variables in transportation include attitudes tow...
Chapter
Traditional regression models are derived with the assumption that the dependent variable is continuous (an interval or ratio scale variable). However, there are numerous cases when the dependent variable is discrete. In the case where the variable is a discrete binary outcome, such as modeling whether or not a person walks to work or whether or no...
Chapter
Bayesian models, which integrate of Bayes’ theorem with classical statistical models, have become increasingly popular in the transportation field. This chapter gives an introduction to Bayesian by first discussing Bayes theorem and it potential application to transportation data analysis. The chapter then goes on to give an extensive discussion of...
Chapter
This chapter provides the theory and interpretation of confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, and population comparisons, which are statistical constructs (tools) used to ask and answer questions about the transportation phenomena under study. Despite their enormous utility, confidence intervals are often ignored in transportation practice and hyp...
Chapter
Some transportation data are best modeled by a system of interrelated equations where the dependent variable in one equation is the independent variable in another. Interrelated systems of equations create a potentially serious estimation problem if their interrelated structure is not considered. This is because estimation of equation systems by th...
Article
Using the data from large-truck crashes in Los Angeles over an eight-year period (January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2017), the variation in the influence of factors affecting injury severities during different time periods of the day (morning and afternoon) and from year to year is studied. To capture potential unobserved heterogeneity, random parame...
Article
Shared automated vehicles have the potential to revolutionize future transportation mode choice. Because shared automated vehicles could be a disruptive transportation modal alternative, understanding the factors that may affect the likelihood of using and possible concerns is extremely important. To do so, the current paper uses a survey of Americ...
Article
This study explores the temporal instability of factors affecting motorcyclist-injury severities in single-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Florida. Two data sources are used; one covers the 2012 to 2016 crash histories of Florida motorcyclists who were newly licensed in 2012, and the second covers motorcycle crashes that occur on horizontal curves in...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose Unlike many other quantitative characteristics used to determine higher education rankings, opinion-based peer assessment scores and the factors that may influence them are not well understood. Using peer scores of US colleges of engineering as reported annually in US News and World Report (USNews) rankings, the purpose of this paper is to...
Article
Full-text available
There is extensive theoretical literature that looks at factors that make people more or less likely to change their opinions as additional information is gathered. People whose opinions are less likely to change in response to information may have strong anchoring effects (commitments to initial opinions) or may support their initial opinion by se...
Article
Mixed Generalized Ordered Response (MGOR) models, that allow random heterogeneity in thresholds, are widely used to model ordered outcomes such as accident injury severity. This study highlights a potential limitation of these models, as applied in most empirical research, that the variances of the random thresholds are implicitly assumed to be in...
Article
Using information from 1,990 single-vehicle accidents that occurred between 2011 and 2013 in the state of Washington, the injury severity level of the most severely injured vehicle occupant is studied using two latent class modeling approaches: segment-based and accident-based latent class ordered probit model with class-probability functions. The...
Chapter
Purpose – Information collected from police crash reports has long been the primary source of data for the analysis of factors that determine the likelihood of a crash (crash frequency) and its resulting severity (meas-ured in terms of the extent of injuries to vehicle occupants). Proper cross-sectional analyses techniques, covered in this chapter,...
Article
Emerging transportation technologies have the potential to significantly reshape the transportation systems and household vehicle ownership. Key among these transportation technologies are the autonomous vehicles, particularly when introduced in shared vehicle fleets. In this paper, we focus on the potential impact that fleets of shared autonomous...
Article
Full-text available
With the increasing number of hurricanes in the last decade, efficient and timely evacuation remains a significant concern. Households’ decisions to evacuate/stay and selection of departure time are complex phenomena. This study identifies the different factors that influence the decision making process, and if a household decides to evacuate, what...
Article
This paper investigates risk factors that significantly contribute to the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle/motor-vehicle crashes while systematically accounting for unobserved heterogeneity within the crash data. Using the data from Los Angeles over a seven-year period (January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016) a random parameters multinomial l...
Article
An understanding of the failure patterns of pipes in water distribution systems is critical to cost-effective system-maintenance planning. Failure patterns, which typically measure the frequency of water main breaks in a water distribution system, can vary widely depending on the type of pipe material being considered, and statistical analysis of p...
Article
Full-text available
Differences in hybrid and non-hybrid vehicle design, and potential differences in driver-related behavior among owners of these vehicle types, can potentially have interesting implications for safety-related policies. To study possible differences in hybrid and non-hybrid occupant injury severities in motor vehicle crashes, this paper uses a sample...
Article
Objective: It is well known that alcohol and drugs influence driving behavior by affecting the central nervous system, awareness, vision, and perception/reaction times, but the resulting effect driver-injuries in car crashes is not fully understood. The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting the injury severities of unimpaired, alc...
Article
This paper seeks to investigate the effects of passengers on driver-injury severities. Using single-vehicle crashes, a random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in parameter means is estimated to explore the differences in driver-injury severities in three distinct subgroups; vehicles with one occupant (driver-only), vehicles with two occupa...
Article
This study explores the differences in pedestrian injury severity in three distinct economic time periods from the recent global recession (the Great Recession): pre-recession, recession, and post-recession. Using data from pedestrian crashes in Chicago, Illinois over an eight-year period, separate time-period models of pedestrian-injury severities...
Article
Water main breaks can have significant adverse social, economic, and environmental impacts. As a result, water utilities seek to be proactive and implement asset management programs to reduce the frequency of water main breaks and mitigate their impacts. A key to the success of these asset management programs is the ability to quantify the effect t...
Article
Drivers’ choice of speed has long been known to be a critical factor in both the likelihood and severity of vehicle crashes. Given this, understanding drivers’ choice of speed and the possible effect that posted speed limits may have on this choice, is a critical element of safety research. This paper seeks to provide new insights on drivers’ speed...
Conference Paper
The drinking water infrastructure system in the U.S. consists of approximately 880,000 mi of pipelines. The ASCE 2013 report card estimated that over 240,000 water main breaks occur each year in this network of pipelines. A need exists to optimize and prioritize decisions in response to the failure of water pipes in distribution system. The objecti...
Article
Full-text available
Due to the effects of congestion, capacity reduction of truck-freight carriers, growing freight transportation demand, and increasing social and environmental concerns, there is a critical need for freight shippers to improve shipping quality and reduce transportation costs. Rail-truck multimodal freight collaboration can potentially address this n...
Article
The evaluation of warranty contracts is of great interest to highway agencies that seek innovative ways to manage their assets in the most cost-effective way. This paper demonstrates a statistical approach for evaluating the long-term performance and cost effectiveness of pavement warranties via comparison with similar traditional contracts. This i...
Article
The link between risk-taking behavior in various domains of life has long been an area of debate among economists and psychologists. Using an extensive data set from Denmark, this study provides an empirical investigation of the link between risky driving and risk taking in other aspects of life, including risk-taking behavior in financial and labo...
Article
This study explores the temporal stability of factors affecting driver-injury severities in single-vehicle crashes. Using data for single-vehicle crashes in Chicago, Illinois from a nine-year period from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2012, separate annual models of driver-injury severities (with possible outcomes of severe injury, minor injury, a...
Article
Population contraction has afflicted a number of U.S. cities, presenting problems as the infrastructure becomes overbuilt for shrinking populations. Civic authorities have options to make infrastructure sustainable in light of urban decline including decommissioning or raising service costs to sustain existing infrastructure. This paper conducts a...
Conference Paper
Due to the effects of congestion and rising fuel costs, the need for green transportation and energy security, and the increasing revenue gaps to finance highway, there is a critical need for freight shippers to strengthen their business competitiveness by improving the reliability of their logistic system and reducing supply chain costs. Using a s...
Article
This study explores the differences in driver-injury severity between drivers impaired and not-alcohol-impaired, while taking into consideration the role of age and gender. Using data from single-vehicle crashes from Illinois' Cook County over an eight-year period from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2011, separate alcohol-impaired and not-alcohol-...
Article
Time-constant assumptions in discrete-response heterogeneity models can often be violated. To address this, a time-varying heterogeneity approach to model unobserved heterogeneity in ordered response data is considered. A Markov switching random parameters structure (which accounts for heterogeneity across observations) is proposed to accommodate b...
Article
Policymakers could implement available, well-tested technologies to improve the efficiency of highway pricing, investment, and operations, which would improve travel speeds, reliability, and safety and reduce highway expenditures. Unfortunately, political and bureaucratic impediments to implement such technology exist and are unlikely to be overcom...