Fred L. Collopy

Fred L. Collopy
Case Western Reserve University | CWRU · Department of Information Systems

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69
Publications
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4,249
Citations

Publications

Publications (69)
Article
Full-text available
Expert systems use rules to represent experts’ reasoning in solving problems. The rules are based on knowledge about methods and the problem domain. To acquire knowledge for an expert system, one should rely on a variety of sources, such as textbooks, research papers, interviews, surveys, and protocol analysis. Protocol analysis is especially usefu...
Article
IntroductionResearch on accounting representationsThe psychology of visual representationTextual versus graphic representationsThe power of animationThe cycle modelAdding dynamics to the cycle modelImplications and future researchReferences
Conference Paper
Computer visualizations are all around us. In this paper we describe a design process in which we explore the development of a new visualization to aid managerial decision making. The ultimate goal of our design effort is to develop a visualization that allows for presenting most of the critical financial ratios used to describe a firm’s activity o...
Article
Information is often multidimensional, dynamic, and difficult to communicate using traditional representations such as verbal descriptions or even graphics. Taking a distributed cognition perspective and integrating several theories of visualization, this study formulates a theoretical model to examine the effects of information representation on a...
Article
Full-text available
Tailorable technologies are a class of information systems designed with the intention that users modify and redesign the technology in the context of use. Tailorable technologies support user goals, intentions, metaphor, and use patterns in the selection and integration of technology functions in the creation of new and unique information systems....
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Interpretation and audit of financial information is a significant undertaking that must rest on a fuller understanding of the firm and its operations. A pictorial representation of firm activity offers promise for supporting this requirement. After reviewing the literature related to visualizations, we describe the design of an interactive animate...
Conference Paper
Interpretation and audit of financial information is a significant undertaking that must rest on a fuller understanding of the firm and its operations. A pictorial representation of firm activity offers promise for supporting this requirement. After reviewing the literature related to visualizations, we describe the design of an animated version of...
Article
Full-text available
Opinion polling procedures allow for reasonable inferences about attitude changes. We examined this contention using surveys about the nomination of Clarence Thomas. In this situation, prior theory allowed us to predict the direction of changes, surveys had been conducted by a number of organizations, and substantial information was available about...
Article
Full-text available
Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will happen to a time series in the future. Contrary to the common assumption for extrapolation, time series are not always subject to consistent forces that point in the same direction. Some are affected by conflicting causal forces; we refer to these as complex times seri...
Article
Full-text available
Time series are often subject to conflicting forces; we refer to these as complex time series. This paper uses of causal forces in order to decompose complex series. In particular, we hypothesized three conditions to be important for effectively decomposing a time series by causal forces: 1) the forecaster has domain knowledge that can not be appli...
Article
Managing as Designing explores “the design attitude,” a new focus for analysis and decision making for managers that draws on examples of decision making and leadership in architecture, art, and design. Based on a series of conference papers given at the opening of the Peter B. Lewis Building (designed by Frank Gehry) at the Weatherhead School...
Article
Closed-loop supply chains differ significantly from forward supply chains in many aspects. These differences are not well understood in many contexts, and the situation is complicated by many types of product returns. Progress is slow since closed-loop ...
Article
Full-text available
Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and planning. Little is known about its practice. Mentzer and his colleagues have developed a research programme over twenty years aimed at rectifying the gap in knowledge. Most recently, in the Mentzer et al. (2002) paper they have demonstrated with supporting...
Article
Full-text available
Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and planning. Little is known about its practice. Mentzer and his colleagues have developed a research programme over twenty years aimed at rectifying the gap in knowledge. Most recently, in the Mentzer et al. (2002) paper they have demonstrated with supporting...
Article
The results from applying neural networks to business forecasting have been mixed. Among the most encouraging efforts is that of Hill, O’Connor and Remus (1996). In that study, neural networks produced forecasts that were significantly better than those produced by traditional methods for quarterly and monthly series, and no worse for annual series...
Article
Full-text available
The role of IT in the creation of business value has been considered from various perspectives, such as strategic alignment, sustained advantage, and infrastructure capability. In this paper, we try to extend these previous perspectives by describing a flexible sensemaking framework for valuing complex technological resources. This framework assume...
Article
Leonardo 34.4 (2001) 353 Since the time of Newton and Louis-Bertrand Castel, who invented the first light organ in the seventeenth century, scientists and artists have been interested in the relationship of light and sound. And composers from Alexander Scriabin, who wrote a light score for his opera Prometheus, through rock artist David Bowie, who...
Article
Full-text available
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend are called contrary series. We hypothesized that contrary series would have asymmetric forecast errors, with larger errors in the direction of the expec...
Article
Sonnet+Imager is an object-based toolkit for creating instruments that produce abstract graphics in real-time. It is implemented as a visual programming language of the component-circuit variety. It was designed by identifying and addressing some of the principle limitations in the Max-based graphics engine, Imager. Beyond that, we wanted to addres...
Article
Full-text available
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time series. Judgmental coding of these features is expensive and the reliability of the ratings is modest. We developed and automated heuristics to detect...
Article
Full-text available
Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain...
Article
Full-text available
An examination of a sample of 67 studies on research performance and productivity published between 1974 and 1998 identified two main perspectives named: evaluative approach and explanatory approach. The evaluative studies focus on assessing, comparing, and ranking researchers' performance. Though sometimes based on peer reviews, evaluative studies...
Article
Lumia are an art form that permits visual artists to play images in the way that musicians play with sounds. Though the idea of creating lumia has a long historical tradition, modern graphicallybased computers make it possible to design instruments for creating lumia that are more flexible and easier to play than at any previous time in the history...
Article
Full-text available
Research has suggested that the selection of an error measure has an important effect on the conclusions about which of a set of forecasting methods is most accurate (Armstrong and Collopy 1992; Fildes 1992). This research had concluded that the Relative Absolute Error (RAE) is a useful measure, especially when making comparisons across a small set...
Article
Opinion polling procedures allow for reasonable inferences about attitude changes. We examined this contention using surveys about the nomination of Clarence Thomas. In this situation, prior theory allowed us to predict the direction of changes, surveys had been conducted by a number of organizations, and substantial information was available about...
Method
Full-text available
To address the issue of uncertainty in timing, we suggest a spillover model. It would average the seasonal factor with seasonal factors that precede and follow it.
Article
Full-text available
: We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in...
Article
Full-text available
Sonnet was designed as a visual language for implementing real-time processes. Early design and development of behavioral components has largely focused on the domain of music programming. However, Sonnet's architecture is well suited to expressing many kinds of real-time activities. In particular, Sonnet is easily extended with new kinds of data t...
Article
Full-text available
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absen...
Article
Full-text available
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising extrapolations; rule-based forecasting; and econometric forecasting....
Article
Full-text available
to maximize shareholder wealth. However, managers often do not explicitly pursue the maximization of profits (Mueller 1992). Instead, they frequently make decisions so as to perform well relative to their competitors, which we refer to as having competitor-oriented objectives. Managers might choose not to focus on maximizing future profits, because...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Sonnet was designed as a visual language for implementing real-time processes. Early design and development of behavioral components has largely focused on the domain of music programming. However, Sonnet's architecture is well-suited to expressing many kinds of real-time activities. In particular, Sonnet is easily extended with new kinds of data t...
Article
Despite increasing applications of artificial neural networks (NNs) to fore- casting over the past decade, opinions regarding their contribution are mixed. Evaluating research in this area has been diÅcult, due to lack of clear criteria. We identified eleven guidelines that could be used in evaluat- ing this literature. Using these, we examined app...
Article
Full-text available
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising extrapolations; rule-based forecasting; and econometric forecasting....
Article
Research on information systems (IS) use has often relied upon retrospective self-reports. One example is when the amount of time spent using a system is reported, often as an indication of user acceptance. In this study, self-assessments of computer usage are compared with computer-monitored interactive use and connect time for 401 managers and pr...
Article
Full-text available
Managers are often advised, beat your competitors, which sometimes contrasts with the advice, do the best for your firm. This may lead managers to focus on comparative measures such as market share. Drawing on game theory, the authors hypothesize that managers are competitor oriented under certain conditions, in particular, when they are provided w...
Article
Managers are often advised, “beat your competitors,” which sometimes contrasts with the advice, “do the best for your firm.” This may lead managers to focus on comparative measures such as market share. Drawing on game theory, the authors hypothesize that managers are competitor oriented under certain conditions, in particular, when they are provid...
Article
All forecasting methods involve judgment but forecasting techniques are often dichotomised as judgmental or statistical. Most forecasting research has focused on the development and testing of statistical techniques. However, in practice, human reasoning and judgment play a primary role. Even when statistical methods are used, results are often adj...
Article
Full-text available
Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We believe this has value to information systems (IS) researchers. To demonstrate, we used a widely cited study of IS spending. In that study, price-adjusted diffusion models were proposed to explain and to forecast aggregate U.S. information systems spending...
Article
Full-text available
Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder in the Sky, by Thomas Cleary, opens with a Chinese saying that translates: “The marketplace is a battlefield. The Asian people view success in the business world as tantamount to victory in battle.” The book advises American executives to do the same. Howev...
Article
Full-text available
Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We believe this has value to information systems (IS) researchers. To demonstrate, we used a widely cited study of IS spending. In that study, price-adjusted diffusion models were proposed to explain and to forecast aggregate U.S. information systems spending...
Article
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select and combine forecasts. We use five categories to express causal impacts upon trends: growth, decay, supporting, opposing, and regressing. An identifica...
Article
This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct validity, sensitivity to small changes, protection against outliers, and their relationship to decision making. The results lead us to recommend the Geome...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed a rule base to make annual extrapolation forecasts for economic and demographic time series. The development of the rule base drew upon protocol analy...
Article
Full-text available
: This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct validity, sensitivity to small changes, protection against outliers, and their relationship to decision making. The results lead us to recommend the Geo...
Article
The use of neural networks to forecast short, noisy time series was investigated by comparing neural networks used as function approximators for individual time series with neural networks used to optimally combine traditional forecasting methods based on training across a group of series. Neural network forecast performance on 384 economic and dem...
Article
Full-text available
Generalization and communication issues in the use o f error measures: A reply, Fred Collopy, The Weatherhead School, Case-Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio 44118, USA and J. Scott Armstrong, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. We agree with most of what the commentators say about Armstrong and Col...
Article
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in th...
Article
Full-text available
Commentary on Armstrong, J. Scott, and Collopy, Fred, (1992), “Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons,” International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69-80.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to make forecasts. The sessions with the experts yielded rules about when various extrapolation methods are likely to be most useful in obtaining accurate forecasts. The use of a computer-aided protocol analysis resulted in a reduction in the total lime r...
Conference Paper
A field study of computer use by executives, managers, professionals, and secretaries at the IBM corporate headquarters is described. The study uses automated logging to observe directly the users interaction with their computers. The study population uses computers an average of about 80 min/day. Both the amount of use and particular facilities us...
Article
Full-text available
Tailorable technologies are technologies that are modified by users in the context of their use and are around us as desktop operating systems, web portals, and mobile telephones. While tailorable technologies provide users with limitless ways to modify the technology, as designers and researchers we have little understanding of how this should aff...
Article
The results from applying neural networks to business forecasting have been mixed. Among the most encouraging efforts is that of Hill, O'Connor and Remus (1996). In that study, neural networks produced forecasts that were significantly better than those produced by traditional methods for quarterly and monthly series, and no worse for annual series...

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