Frans Berkhout

• PhD
• Head of Faculty at King's College London

Climate change is changing physical and social risks facing people in African cities. Emerging awareness is beginning to stimulate a wide range of adaptive responses. These responses are playing out in a complex institutional and governance context which shape their effectiveness and legitimacy. Employing a hybrid governance approach, we investigat...

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II report of (2022) has brought greater attention to the issue of limits to the capacity to adapt to climate change. But the report also showed that research in the field continues to be fragmented and under‐developed, and that the problem of limits is not widely considered in policy. In this paper,...

This chapter establishes a foundation for understanding adaptation by reviewing core concepts related to adaptation, with a focus on mapping out broad categories of needs and options. Here we use adaptation needs to refer to circumstances requiring information, resources, and action to ensure safety of populations and security of assets in response...

This paper sets out a structured process for the co-production of knowledge between researchers and societal partners and illustrates its application in an urban health equity project in Accra, Ghana. The main insight of this approach is that research and knowledge co-production is always partial , both in the sense of being incomplete, as well as...

Concerted action on climate change will require a continuing stream of social and technical innovations whose development and transmission will be influenced by public policies. New ways of doing things frequently emerge in innovative small-scale initiatives – ‘experiments’ – across sectors of economic and social life. These experiments are actiona...

Studies exploring climate change adaptation in the private sector have seldom investigated the effect of business network interactions on climate vulnerability and adaptation outcomes. This paper proposes a novel theoretical framework to explore how business–network dynamics affect risk perceptions and adaptive behaviours in business firms. The fra...

This paper presents an introduction to and overview of the papers in this Special Issue of Technological Forecasting & Social Change on ‘Transition Pathways’ is presented. Each of these papers are an output of the PATHWAYS project (EC FP7-funded, 2013–2017) which looked into ways to integrate alternative approaches for analysing sustainability tran...

At the Climate Change Conference in Montréal in 2005, the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change decided to start a dialogue to exchange experiences and analyse strategic approaches for long-term cooperative action to address climate change.1 The Parties did not have to start their dialogue from scratch. In the last few years, policy...

After the perceived failure of global approaches to tackling climate change, enthusiasm for local climate initiatives has blossomed world-wide, suggesting a more experimental approach to climate governance. Innovating Climate Governance: Moving Beyond Experiments looks critically at climate governance experimentation, focusing on how experimental o...

The governance of climate adaptation involves the collective efforts of multiple societal actors to address problems, or to reap the benefits, associated with impacts of climate change. Governing involves the creation of institutions, rules and organizations, and the selection of normative principles to guide problem solution and institution buildi...

Since it was first proposed in 2000, the concept of the Anthropocene has evolved in breadth and diversely. The concept encapsulates the new and unprecedented planetary-scale changes resulting from societal transformations and has brought to the fore the social drivers of global change. The concept has revealed tensions between generalized interpret...

This chapter articulates a comprehensive definition of the notion of ‘experimentation’ in the context of urban sustainability transitions. Highlighting a number of key dimensions, we argue that experiments can be analysed according to the degree to which they are (1) inclusive, (2) systemic, (3) practice-based, (4) challenge-led and (5) adaptive in...

Low-carbon transitions are long-term multi-faceted processes. Although integrated assessment models have many strengths for analysing such transitions, their mathematical representation requires a simplification of the causes, dynamics and scope of such societal transformations. We suggest that integrated assessment model-based analysis should be c...

p>The governance of climate adaptation involves the collective efforts of multiple societal actors to address problems, or to reap the benefits, associated with impacts of climate change. Governing involves the creation of institutions, rules and organizations, and the selection of normative principles to guide problem solution and institution buil...

This paper explores transnational linkages in sustainability experiments. Transnational linkages refer to diverse cross-border relationships and interactions that can complement local, regional and national capabilities enabling sustainability experiments. The paper develops a typology of transnational linkages and applies it to solar photovoltaic...

The paper sets out a proposal for bridging and linking three approaches to the analysis of transitions to sustainable and low-carbon societies: quantitative systems modelling; socio-technical transition analysis; and initiative-based learning. We argue that each of these approaches presents a partial and incomplete picture, which has implications f...

While the concept of the Anthropocene reflects the past and present nature, scale and magnitude of human impacts on the Earth System, its true significance lies in how it can be used to guide attitudes, choices, policies and actions that influence the future. Yet, to date much of the research on the Anthropocene has focused on interpreting past and...

Climate policy ‘mainstreaming’, ‘proofing’ and ‘integration’ are concepts that frequently appear in a range of EU policy discussions, most importantly in EU energy and climate policy (European Council 2014) and adaptation policy (EC 2013). They reflect the view that all EU policy sectors need to play a part in both reducing emissions and increasing...

A central claim about the Anthropocene is that this new epoch, in which people have become the primary geological force, raises profound questions about the sustainability of human development (Crutzen 2002). Human populations have grown dramatically, especially over the past two centuries; these people have grown on average wealthier, drawing on m...

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) have the potential to become a powerful political vision that can support the urgently needed global transition to a shared and lasting prosperity. In December 2014, the United Nations (UN) Secretary General published his report on the SDGs. However, the final goals and targets that will be adopted by the UN...

Climate variability and change generate new conditions to which social actors (people, households, businesses and public sector agencies) respond through managing risks or by exploiting new opportunities. This chapter summarizes some literature on organisational adaptation, including adaptation to climate variability and change. Research on busines...

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors, and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enab...

Much of the debate about the Anthropocene has been concerned with global-scale change and with the past. This short paper argues that there is a need for a greater focus on Anthropocene Futures that are relevant to societal actors now and in the relatively near-term future. It suggests that social science perspectives will play an important role in...

Abstract This paper compares the historical development of innovation systems related to biogas and improved cookstove technologies in Rwanda and Kenya by applying the ‘functions approach’. It argues that the accumulation of functions in these renewable energy technological innovation systems (TIS) differed substantially. We find that the accumulat...

This chapter assesses recent literature on the opportunities that create enabling conditions for adaptation as well as the ancillary benefits that may arise from adaptive responses. It also assesses the literature on biophysical and socioeconomic constraints on adaptation and the potential for such constraints to pose limits to adaptation. Given th...

Produced by the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and UNESCO, and published by the OECD, the 2013 World Social Science Report represents a comprehensive overview of the field gathering the thoughts and expertise of hundreds of social scientists from around the world. This edition focuses on the transformative role of the social sciences i...

Linking knowledge with action for effective societal responses to persistent problems of unsustainability requires transformed, more open knowledge systems. Drawing on a broad range of academic and practitioner experience, we outline a vision for the coordination and organization of knowledge systems that are better suited to the complex challenges...

An actor-centered, risk-based approach to defining limits to social adaptation provides a useful analytic framing for identifying and anticipating these limits and informing debates over society's responses to climate change.

Climate adaptation has emerged as a mainstream risk management strategy for assisting in maintaining socio-ecological systems within the boundaries of a safe operating space. Yet, there are limits to the ability of systems to adapt. Here, we introduce the concept of an “adaptation frontier”, which is defined as a socio-ecological system’s transitio...

a b s t r a c t The multi-level perspective (MLP) is a widely adopted framework for analysing stability, change and transitions in socio-technical systems. Key to explanations of change is the interaction between nested levels (niche, regime, landscape) constituting socio-technical systems over time. This paper proposes a second generation, multi-s...

Transitions to cleaner, renewable energy are at the heart ofpolicies in many countries. The focus on renewables has, ifanything, become greater recently as uncertainty growsabout the viability and acceptability of alternatives toachieve low-carbon growth, including nuclear power andcarbon capture and storage (REN21 2010). The Fukushimaaccident has...

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a ma...

The European Union (EU) has sought to lead the world in the adoption of ambitious climate change mitigation targets and policies. In an attempt to characterize and broadly explain the resulting pattern of EU climate governance, scholars have employed the term "multi-level reinforcement." This term does help to account for the paradoxical situation...

Organizations will be central actors in societal adaptation to climate variability and change. But highly simplified assumptions are often made about the response of organizations to the stimulus of perceived or experienced climate change. This paper reviews recent literature, arguing that three approaches are applied in studies of organizational a...

From 2008 to 2011, Knowledge for Climate contributed to the development of the Joint Programming Initiative “Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe” (JPI Climate). In 2010, a proposal was developed and accepted, followed in 2011 by the development and adoption of a governance structure and a strategic research agenda. The Initiative is supported b...

The Knowledge for Climate, Governance of Adaptation programme aims to integrate existing knowledge from the fields of public administration, economics, political science, spatial planning, law, environmental studies and psychology. Through close cooperation with hotspots, this programme will add new empirical evidence to test innovative theoretical...

Responses to Environmental and Societal Challenges for our Unstable Earth (RESCUE), ESF Forward Look – ESF-COST ‘Frontier of Science’ joint initiative

Global sustainability is increasingly influenced by economic growth and social change in non-OECD countries, especially in Asia. Growth models suggest that industrializing economies will become first relatively more resource-and pollution-intensive, before becoming more resource-efficient and less polluting, following the pattern of higher-income e...

This short paper reviews some trends in social science research on eco-innovation, drawing attention to four trends in particular: better disaggregated empirical research on firms, research on knowledge and technology flows, linkage of economic and physical models and growing sophistication in the analysis of policy and governance on eco-innovation...

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the...

This paper investigates the contribution of socio-economic scenarios to improve decisions and policies in climate assessments. We specifically looked at adaptation projects in the Dutch Climate changes Spatial Planning programme. Based on the four decision failure criteria neglect of internal information, bounded rationality, insufficient expansion...

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 degrees C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 degrees C increase by...

In this article I argue that the climate controversies of 2009 and 2010 should be seen as a contest about the boundaries of science; a contest which sociologists argue has long been important in establishing claims about the nature and authority of science. This boundary typically comes under pressure where science is asked to contribute to public...

Policy exists to encourage social and environmental change now and into the future. It makes a promise about the future and, by doing so, seeks to align target groups to its goals and means. A fundamental problem in governing any policy problem is that both the governors and the target groups change their preferences over time. Another is that the...

In his 1978 book, Reconciling Man with the Environment, Eric Ashby sought to address what he considered to be one of the most critical issues of his time: the protection of the environment. He believed that by continually making difficult policy choices and confronting the associated dilemmas, humans would gradually arrive at a fuller understanding...

Climate change is widely recognised as a ‘wicked’ policy problem. Agreeing and implementing governance responses is proving extremely difficult. Policy makers in many jurisdictions now emphasise their ambition to govern using the best available evidence. One obvious source of such evidence is the evaluations of the performance of existing policies....

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adapt...

Global sustainability is increasingly influenced by processes of industrialisation and urbanization in non-OECD countries, especially in Asia. Growth models suggest that developing economies and regions will become first relatively more resource- and pollution-intensive, before converging on more resource-efficient and low-pollution production and...

The European Union (EU) has emerged as a leading governing body in the international struggle to govern climate change. The transformation that has occurred in its policies and institutions has profoundly affected climate change politics at the international level and within its 27 Member States. But how has this been achieved when the EU comprises...

Over the course of 50 years, UK radioactive waste policy change has been coupled with institutional change, without much progress towards the ultimate goal of safe, long-term stewardship of wastes. We explain this history as a search for legitimacy against a shifting context of legitimation needs and deficits. Following Habermas, we argue that legi...

Climate change may cause most harm to countries that contribute least to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper identifies deontology, solidarity and consequentialism as the principles that can serve as a basis for a fair international burden sharing scheme of adaptation costs. We translate these principles into criteria that can be applied in assign...

Climate change may cause most harm to countries that have historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. This paper identifies consequentialist and non-consequentialist ethical principles to guide a fair international burden-sharing scheme of climate change adaptation costs. We use these ethical principles to de...

This policy brief builds on results arising from the mitigation and policy appraisal research domains of the ADAM project (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy). Funded by the European Commission and coordinated by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK, ADAM is an integrated research project ru...

One of the great themes of the social debate about environmental protection has been the question whether environmental quality can be safeguarded without major economic or social change. With the advent of the notion of ‘sustainable development’ in the late 1980s a new consensus emerged which sug gested that the economy and the environment could b...

Climate change may cause most harm to countries that have historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. This paper identifies deontology, solidarity and consequentialism as the principles that can serve as a basis for a fair international burden sharing scheme of climate change adaptation costs. We translate th...

This is the 3rd study to be published in the CEPS Policy Brief series from ongoing research being carried out for the EU-funded ADAM project (ADaptation And Mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy). Following an introduction to the aims and objectives of the ADAM project, section 2 sets out the rationales for public policy related...

Based on the analysis of a large dataset on the environmental performance of European companies in five industrial sectors, this paper examines the question of whether the presence of an environmental management system (EMS) has a positive impact on the eco-efficiency of companies. It begins with a review of evidence about the link between EMS and...

Rapid industrialisation in Asia is generating a significant new demand for raw materials and pressure on local, regional and global environments. In the future these demands and pressures are expected to increase markedly. These concerns are models of development that assume that economic growth follows a pattern leading to a convergence between th...

This is the 3rd study to be published in the CEPS Policy Brief series from ongoing research being carried out for the EU-funded ADAM project (ADaptation And Mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy). Following an introduction to the aims and objectives of the ADAM project, section 2 sets out the rationales for public policy related...

This article assesses a wide range of alternative proposals for post-2012 international climate policy regimes. We believe that these proposals will serve as a basis for debates about how to configure post-2012 climate policy. The article characterizes and assesses the policy proposals along the lines of five key policy dilemmas. We argue that (1)...

Het IPCC brengt verspreid over 2007 in vier delen het vierde klimaatrapport uit (Fourth Assessment Report - AR4). Het geeft daarmee de nieuwste inzichten op het gebied van klimaatverandering in de wereld. Aan het AR4 hebben honderden gerenommeerde klimaatonderzoekers uit de hele wereld meegewerkt, waaronder verschillende uit Nederland. De hoofdrapp...

Deze brochure presenteert de belangrijkste conclusies uit het Fourth Assessment Report van Werkgroep II (WGII 4AR) van het Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). De werkzaamheden van deze werkgroep bestrijken de mondiale en regionale gevolgen van klimaatverandering en zeespiegelstijging, de kwetsbaarheid van verschillende sectoren, en de...

We argue that globalization is a central feature of coupled human–environment systems or, as we call them, socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this article, we focus on the effects of globalization on the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptability of these systems. We begin with a brief discussion of key terms, arguing that socio-economic resilien...

This paper is concerned with the way technological expectations are generated, articulated and deployed in processes of large-scale socio-technical change. We argue that expectations are intrinsic to all social action, so that visions of the future are both ubiquitous and context-specific. Agents will act in relation to private visions of the futur...

Abstract. Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research i...

A quasi-evolutionary model of socio-technical transitions is described in which regimes face selection pressures continuously. Differentiated transition contexts determine the form and direction of regime change in response to these pressures. The articulation of pressures, and the degree to which responses are coordinated and based on resources av...

This article sets out a series of rationales for public policy related to adaptation to the impacts of climatic change in the EU. It begins by arguing that both mitigation and adaptation are necessary parts of a coordinated policy response to the problem of climatic change. However, the ‘problem structure’ of adaptation is significantly different f...

There has been a growth in academic and policy interest in the notion of systemslevel technological changes (regime shifts, systems innovations) that promise to bring about radical improvements in environmental efficiency (cf. Frosch and Gallapoulos 1989; Vellinga et al 1998). Perhaps the clearest example is the debate about shifts to low-carbon en...

Drawing on recent literature on the environmental impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the Internet, this paper identifies three main types of effects: direct impacts of the production and use of ICTs on the environment (resource use and pollution related to the production of infrastructure and devices, electricity consum...

Based on the analysis of a large dataset on the environmental performance of European companies in selected industrial sectors, the paper examines the question of whether the presence of an environmental management system (EMS) has a positive impact on the ecoefficiency of companies. It begins with a review of current evidence about the link betwee...

Russia occupies a key position in European climate policy. Cooperation with Russia offers two policy options to the West European industrialised states which are required, under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. Natural gas imported from Russia could be used to replace coal, which produces higher CO2 emissio...

We develop baseline data and an analytical framework for understanding the role that flows of carbon between the Former Soviet Union/Commonwealth of Independent States (FSU/CIS) and the European Union (EU) may have in enabling the EU to meet major reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the medium-term future. The paper sets out an analysis...

Shifting perspectives in environmental social science, Frans Berkhout, Melissa Leach, Ian Scoones risk, uncertainty and precaution - some instrumental implications from the social sciences, Andy Stirling economics and sustainable development - what have we learnt, and what do we still need to learn?, Nick Hanley, Giles Atkinson deliberative democra...