Frank H Koch

US Forest Service | FS · Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center

When alien species make incursions into novel environments, early detection through surveillance is critical to minimizing their impacts and preserving the possibility of timely eradication. However, incipient populations can be difficult to detect, and usually, there are limited resources for surveillance or other response activities. Modern optim...

• Species distribution models, or SDMs, have become important decision support tools by answering fundamental questions about where species, including invasive species, are likely to survive and thrive based on environmental conditions. • For an inexperienced modeller or model reviewer, the terminology and technical aspects of SDMs can be overwhelm...

Urban trees are important nature‐based solutions for future well‐being and liveability but are at high risk of mortality from insect pests. In the United States (US), 82% of the population live in urban settings and this number is growing, making urban tree mortality a matter of concern for most of its population. Until now, the magnitudes and spat...

Forests across much of the United States are becoming denser. Trees growing in denser stands experience more competition for essential resources, which can make them more vulnerable to disturbances. Forest density can be expressed in terms of basal area, a metric that has been used to assess vulnerability of some forests to damage by certain insect...

As the future climate becomes hotter or drier, forests may be exposed to more frequent or severe droughts. To inform efforts to ensure resilient forests, it is critical to know which forests may be most exposed to future drought and where. Longer duration droughts lasting 2-3 years or more are especially important to quantify because forests are li...

Disturbances including fire, insect and disease outbreaks, and drought are ubiquitous in forests and rangelands, and many disturbance events are parts of the natural dynamics of forest and rangeland ecosystems. This chapter is a new addition to the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment and summarizes disturbance trends in the recent past and...

Industrial forestry activities can increase landscape fragmentation, impacting wildlife populations, particularly Canada’s woodland caribou, Rangifer tarandus caribou. To protect caribou in areas with forestry activities, the province of Ontario, Canada, implemented a Dynamic Caribou Harvest Schedule (DCHS). The DCHS spatially aggregates harvest di...

Large-scale delimiting surveys are critical for detecting pest invasions and often undertaken at different governance levels. In this study, we consider two-level hierarchical planning of surveys of harmful invasive pests including a government agency with a mandate to report the spatial extent of an invasion, and regional governments (counties) co...

Protecting wildlife corridors is a common management problem in regions of industrial forestry. In boreal Canada, human disturbances have negatively affected woodland caribou populations (Rangifer tarandus caribou), which prefer to function in large undisturbed areas. We present a linear programming model that allocates a fixed-width corridor betwe...

Non-renewable resource extraction contributes greatly to degradation of wildlife habitats in boreal landscapes. In western Canada, oil and gas exploration and extraction have left a dense network of linear disturbances (seismic lines) and abandoned well pads that have fragmented boreal forest. Among multiple ecological effects, these disturbances h...

Although wildfires are an important ecological process in forested regions worldwide, they can cause significant economic damage and frequently create widespread health impacts. We propose a network optimization approach to plan wildfire fuel treatments that minimize the risk of fire spread in forested landscapes under an upper bound for total trea...

In 1978, Reece Sailer published a seminal retrospective entitled ‘Our Immigrant Insect Fauna.’ His goals were to better understand the origins and historical patterns of alien insect species introductions into the United States and establish a baseline for future work to improve our ability to respond to environmental and agricultural well-being th...

Monitoring the occurrence of forest pest and pathogen outbreaks is important at regional scales because of the significant impact insects and disease can have on forest health across landscapes (ch. 2). National Insect and Disease Survey data collected in 2019 by the Forest Health Protection program of the Forest Service and partners in State agenc...

When adopted, wildlife protection policies in Canadian forests typically cover large areas and affect multiple economic agents working in these landscapes. Such measures are likely to increase the costs of timber for forestry companies operating in the area, which may hinder their acceptance of the policies unless harvesting remains profitable. We...

A two‐phase Bayesian model is presented for updating risk assessments for locations susceptible to infection by exotic pathogens. Human transportation from previously infected regions to uninfected regions is the main dispersal mechanism. Information embedded in patterns within the transportation flow are exploited in the update process. We explore...

Urban trees are important nature-based solutions for future wellbeing and livability but are at high risk of mortality from insect pests. United States (US) urbanization levels are already at 82% and are growing, making urban tree mortality a matter of concern for the majority of its population. Until now, the magnitudes and spatial distributions o...

Managing invasive species becomes increasingly difficult and expensive as populations of new pathogens, plants, insects, and other animals (i.e., pests) spread and reach high densities. Research over the past decade confirms the value of early intervention strategies intended to (1) prevent invasive species from arriving within an endangered area o...

Multi‐day survey campaigns are critical for timely detection of biological invasions. We propose a new modelling approach that helps allocate survey inspections in a multi‐day campaign aimed at detecting the presence of an invasive organism. We adopt a team orienteering problem to plan daily inspections and use an acceptance sampling approach to fi...

Industrial forestry in boreal regions increases fragmentation and may decrease the viability of some wildlife populations, particularly the woodland caribou, Rangifer tarandus caribou. Caribou protection often calls for changes in forestry practices, which may increase the cost and reduce the available timber supply. We present a linear programming...

Monitoring the occurrence of forest pest and pathogen outbreaks is important at regional scales because of the significant impact insects and disease can have on forest health across landscapes. National Insect and Disease Survey data collected in 2018 by the Forest Health Protection program of the Forest Service and partners in State agencies iden...

Although the annual FHM reports address annual spatial extent and patterns of insect and disease detections, there has been no comprehensive long-term analysis of Insect and Disease Survey (IDS) data in the FHM reports. To examine medium-term trends in insect and disease damage to the forests of the United States, we organized and analyzed 20 years...

Although present United States (U.S.) policy restricts very nearly all Cuban commercial exports to the U.S., there is potential for the restrictions to be relaxed or perhaps even lifted at some point in the future. In light of the potential increased trade with Cuba, the potential arrival of invasive species such as bark beetles and ambrosia beetle...

Protecting wildlife within areas of resource extraction often involves reducing habitat fragmentation. In Canada, protecting threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) populations requires preserving large areas of intact forest habitat, with some restrictions on industrial forestry activities. We present a linear progra...

Southern pine forests are important fiber and wood sources, and critical to local, regional, and national economies in the United States. Recently, certain areas of southern pine forests, especially those dominated by loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), have been reported to exhibit abnormally high levels of tree dieback and mortality. However, causal age...

Detections of invasive species outbreaks are often followed by the removal of susceptible host organisms in order to slow the spread of the invading pest population. We propose the acceptance sampling approach for detection and optional removal of susceptible host trees to manage an outbreak of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a highly destructive fore...

Evidence of increased biotic disturbances in forests due to climate change is accumulating, necessitating the development of new approaches for understanding the impacts of natural disturbances on human well-being. The recent Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) outbreak in the western United States, which was historically unprecedented in scale, provides an...

Ten US states and the District of Columbia have legalized cannabis as of November 2018, and have adopted other policies regarding production, consumption, and the penalties associated with it. These policy changes may have affected illegal growing operations on national forests of the United States. Using data on the number of cannabis grow sites r...

Surveillance programs to detect alien invasive pests seek to find them as soon as possible, but also to minimize the cost of damage from invasion. To examine the trade-offs between these objectives, we developed an economic model that allocates survey sites to minimize either the expected mitigation costs or the expected time until first detection...

We develop an acceptance sampling approach for surveillance of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a harmful forest pest, in Winnipeg, Canada. We compare sampling strategies computed with two different management objectives. The first objective maximizes the expected area with detected infestations and the second objective minimizes the expected number of...

Despite conservation efforts, most forest ecosystems worldwide are affected by biotic invasions; however, the specific impacts vary across different geographic regions and forest types. The relative contributions of the main drivers such as propagule pressure (e.g., due to human population, travel, and trade), climate, land use, and habitat invasib...

We develop an acceptance sampling approach for surveillance of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a harmful forest pest, in Winnipeg, Canada. We compare sampling strategies computed with two different management objectives. The first objective maximizes the expected area with detected infestations and the second objective minimizes the expected number of...

Native Lauraceae (e.g. sassafras, redbay) in the southeastern USA are being severely impacted by laurel wilt disease, which is caused by the pathogen Raffaelea lauricola T. C. Harr., Fraedrich and Aghayeva, and its symbiotic vector, the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus Eichhoff). Cold temperatures are currently the only viable limitation...

Introduction: A fundamental challenge to the integrity of tropical dry forest ecosystems is the invasion of non-native grass species. These grasses compete for resources and fuel anthropogenic wildfires. In 2012, a bulldozer from the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority cleared a 570-m trail from a state road into a mature dry forest section of Guá...

Uncertainty about future spread of invasive organisms hinders planning of effective response measures. We present a two-stage scenario optimization model that accounts for uncertainty about the spread of an invader, and determines survey and eradication strategies that minimize the expected program cost subject to a safety rule for eradication succ...

Defining the probability threshold for eradication success. (DOC)

Model-based assessment of ALB spread in in the Greater Toronto Area (ON). (DOC)

Impact of changing the infestation rate (θjs) and the host density (Nj) on the optimal management policy. (DOC)

Laurel wilt is an extraordinarily destructive exotic tree disease in the southeastern United States that involves new-encounter hosts in the Lauraceae, an introduced vector (Xyleborus glabratus) and pathogen symbiont (Raffaelea lauricola). USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data were used to estimate that over 300 million trees of re...

In this chapter, we provide an overview of an integrated approach to mapping the risks and impacts of invasive species with dynamic simulation models. Assessments of risks and impacts of invasive pests are difficult due to complex relationships between the many factors driving invasions. We argue that a risk map can provide better decision support...

With climate change and increasing globalisation of trade and travel, the risks presented by invasive pests and pathogens to natural environments, agriculture and economies have never been greater, and are only increasing with time. Governments world-wide are responding to these increased threats by strengthening quarantine and biosecurity. This bo...

Uncertainty about future outcomes of invasions is a major hurdle in the planning of invasive species management programs. We present a scenario optimization model that incorporates uncertainty about the spread of an invasive species and allocates survey and eradication measures to minimize the number of infested or potentially infested host plants...

Hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand) (HWA) is an invasive forest insect sweeping across the native range of eastern (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.) hemlocks, threatening to severely reduce eastern hemlock extent and to push Carolina hemlock to extirpation. HWA poses a significant threat to these east...

Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain dat...

Government agencies in the United States eradicated 10.3 million cannabis plants in 2010. Most (94%) of these plants were outdoor-grown, and 46% of those were discovered on federal lands, primarily on national forests in California, Oregon, and Washington. We developed models that reveal how drug markets, policies, and environmental conditions affe...

Efforts to monitor the broad-scale impacts of drought on forests often come up short. Drought is a direct stressor of forests as well as a driver of secondary disturbance agents, making a full accounting of drought impacts challenging. General impacts can be inferred from moisture deficits quantified using precipitation and temperature measurements...

The discovery that the stratospheric ozone layer can be eroded by human activities along with the existence of a larger-than-expected hole over Antarctica more than 30 years ago propelled the use of remote sensing of Earth’s atmospheric structure for more than weather forecasting; it became central to observation research and a tool for the develop...

Techniques that are conventionally used to process remotely sensed data into geospatial input or output products (e.g., classified maps) for further analysis and application are discussed in this chapter. This chapter focuses on the processing of moderate-spatial-resolution, multispectral digital image data, such as the imagery captured by the Land...

In the previous chapters, we have discussed how the scientific community, government agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), private industry, and the general public use the wealth of information provided by airborne and satellite remote sensing data. We have presented specific examples of its cost-effective and timely use in a wide range o...

Each day, millions of individual images and observations collect an enormous variety of information about the Earth’s surface and subsurface. This routine surveillance enables the monitoring and modeling of ecosystem health, detecting seismic activity, identifying surface vegetation, promoting sustainable agriculture, and characterizing the physica...

As noted in Chap. 1, remotely sensed data are collected by a diverse array of passive and active sensors mounted on aircraft (including airplanes, helicopters, and uninhabited aerial systems) or spacecraft (usually satellites). During the latter half of the twentieth century, large-scale space programs such as National Aeronautics and Space Adminis...

The use of remote sensing perhaps goes all the way back to prehistoric times when the early man stood on a platform in front of his cave and glanced at the surrounding landscape (late Robert N. Colwell, UC Berkeley). These humans were remotely sensing the features in the landscape to determine the best places to gather food and water and how to avo...

Marine environments contain substantial biological diversity, deliver vital ecosystem services, supply valuable natural resources, and are a core component of our weather and climate system. However, the ocean environment is complex and ever-changing. Examining how our oceans, atmosphere, and landmasses interact would be virtually impossible withou...

Many technological developments in remote sensing are at least partially rooted in space exploration efforts; for instance, imaging spectroscopy—hyperspectral imaging—was developed in parallel for terrestrial and planetary applications. Of course, what are perhaps the best-known space exploration efforts have actually involved direct (i.e., non-rem...

Remote sensing has been identified as one of the most significant technological achievements of the twentieth century. Earth observation satellites transcend national boundaries and geophysical space, creating transparency into activities and places that were once concealed from foreign states. This raises many issues—the ideals of cooperation, soc...

This textbook is one of the first to explain the fundamentals and applications of remote sensing at both undergraduate and graduate levels. Topics include definitions and a brief history of payloads and platforms, data acquisition and specifications, image processing techniques, data integration and spatial modeling, and a range of applications cov...

Context Fine-scale ecological data collected across broad regions are becoming increasingly available. Appropriate geographic analyses of these data can help identify locations of ecological concern. Objectives We present one such approach, spatial association of scalable hexagons (SASH), which identifies locations where ecological phenomena occur...

Aim. We address the problem of geographically allocating scarce survey resources to detect pests in their pathways of introduction given information about their likelihood of movement between origins and destinations. We introduce a model for selecting destination sites for survey that departs from the aim of reducing propagule pressure (PP) in pes...

The pattern of forest land clearing in a region can be viewed as a gauge of sustainable (or unsustainable) use of agricultural and forest resources. In this study we examine the geographical distribution of land clearing potential in the Canadian agriculture–forestry interface and propose a new landscape-scale indicator that quantifies this potenti...