Francoise Lemoine

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales | CEPII

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China's foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The...

Télécharger sur http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/panorama/pa2017-01.pdf Dans la nouvelle phase de développement qu’aborde la Chine, la consommation des ménages est appelée à devenir le moteur principal de la croissance économique, prenant le relai des investissements et des exportations. Ce rééquilibrage, déterminant pour le rythme et la soutenabilité...

Our study documents the recent narrowing of the coast-inland divide in China. We argue that this rebalancing reflects, with a time lag, the catching up process which has been at work in the industry of the inland region since the end of the 1990s. The pattern is in line with the rapid and unconditional convergence observed in China's manufacturing...

En 2013, la Chine est devenue la première puissance commerciale du monde. La progression des échanges extérieurs du pays continue à être plus rapide que celle du commerce international, mais ses ressorts sont différents de ceux qui prévalaient avant la crise globale. La participation de l’économie chinoise aux chaînes mondiales de production, à tra...

Appendices 1. Industrial enterprises census database - Harmonization and adjustments - Representativeness 2. Classifications - Classification by industry - Classification by category of firm and type of ownership - Classification by regions and provinces

Depuis les débuts de la modernisation du pays, le centre de gravité de l'économie chinoise s'est situé alternativement dans la zone côtière (Chine bleue) et les régions de l'intérieur (Chine jaune). On assiste à l'heure actuelle à l'un de ces basculements : grâce à un rattrapage industriel d'un rythme inédit, les régions de l'intérieur sont en trai...

Depuis les débuts de la modernisation du pays, le centre de gravité de l’économie chinoise s’est situé alternativement dans la zone côtière (Chine bleue) et les régions de l’intérieur (Chine jaune). On assiste à l’heure actuelle à l’un de ces basculements : grâce à un rattrapage industriel d’un rythme inédit, les régions de l’intérieur sont en trai...

Since the mid-2000s, the center of gravity of China’s economic growth has shifted from the coastline to the inland and the gap in GDP per capita between the two areas has narrowed. This macroeconomic catch-up refl ects, with a time lag, the convergence process which has been at work in manufacturing industry since the end of the 1990s and suggests...

Depuis le milieu des années 2000, un rééquilibrage économique du territoire chinois s’est amorcé en faveur des régions intérieures. Leur rattrapage résulte d’un processus de convergence à l'oeuvre dans l'industrie manufacturière depuis la fin des années 1990 et qui témoigne de l’intégration technologique croissante de l’espace chinois. Ce basculeme...

Since 2008 China's trade surplus has fallen sharply. This column argues that China has since become a major source of international demand, thanks to its strong economic growth. China's import demand has been aimed at resource-rich countries and at its Asian neighbours, but also at European exporters, especially in high-end consumer goods. Between...

Since 2007 China has considerably reduced its external global imbalances. Its bilateral trade surpluses with the EU and the US have persisted because the rise of China’s import demand has mainly benefited its Asian neighbors and the resource rich countries. The rapid growth of China’s imports of consumption goods from advanced economies, especially...

China was a major player in the rise of global imbalances in the mid-2000s. If its overall trade surplus has decreased since 2007, its bilateral surpluses with the U.S. and Europe remain quite large. China's import demand has mainly benefited to its Asian neighbors and to raw material producing countries. However, Europe has also taken advantage of...

The EU15 manufacturing trade with developing and emerging economies has now overtaken its trade with high-income countries. This trade has strengthened the European specialization in high-end products and medium-high technological sectors. The EU15 exports have been increasingly concentrated on its neighbours, while its imports from Asia were the m...

Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal. However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the...

China, which since the 1980s has developed a dynamic export sector in order to drive its economic development, was hit hard by the collapse in global demand in late 2008. This episode revealed the fragility of the Chinese growth model, which is currently at a crossroads, not only as a result of the global context but also owing to the internal tens...

During the past ten years, the emerging economies, exporters of manufactured products or services, and the rentier states, exporters of primary products, have eroded the dominant position of the developed countries in world markets. The EU15 has lost less ground than the US or Japan. The EU15 has taken advantage of its geographical location to enha...

Over the past ten years, the emerging economies, being exporters of manufactured goods, and rentier states, being exporters of commodities, have eroded the dominant position of developed countries in the world market; for the latter, they have also represented opportunities for growth and been partners in the international division of labour. As th...

China and India are two demographic giants that have become big developing economic powers. They have maintained their specialization in textiles and developed outward-oriented sectors linked to new technologies, taking advantage of offshoring and outsourcing. Their increasing contribution to international trade is changing the world supply and dem...

China and India are demographic giants which have become big economic powers before getting rich. Their rise in international trade has created two symmetric shocks, on the supply of manufactured goods and the demand of primary goods, contributing to a reversal in world relative prices. They have kept traditional specialisation in textiles but have...

The emergence of China has intensified the international segmentation of production processes within Asia, but has not created an autonomous engine for the region’s trade, as Asia still depends on outside markets for its final goods exports. The reorganisation of production has weakened the position of the advanced economies (Japan and the US) in A...

After a long absence, China and India are returning to the world economic stage. The breakthrough they have made in international trade has for the past decade borne witness to their strong presence in industries linked to the digital revolution. Their ascension is having far-reaching effects on global supply and demand for goods and services. They...

L'ouvrage a obtenu le Prix Ernest Lémonon 2007

A recurrent theme from politicians and commentators alike is that Canada is too exposed to the U.S. economy and could benefit from diversifying its trade pattern. In this paper we examine the validity of these calls in a context of world demographic changes. Although population ageing in Canada is expected to have a negative impact on welfare, inte...

China has become the world’s largest export production platform and is now the hub of an intensified regional segmentation of production processes, as evidenced by the surge of intra-Asian trade in parts and components. However, Asian exports of final goods still heavily depend on markets outside the region. Also, the unit values of China’s exports...

China has taken advantage of the globalisation process and has become a assembly country for firms in Asia which have extended to China their production and trade networks. China’s position in the segmentation of the production processes has fostered its trade in high-technology products. However the rapid technological upgrading of China’s trade i...

Asian foreign exchange markets are under pressure. Since 2007, good macroeconomic fundamentals, favourable growth prospects and high interest rates have made the emerging countries a favourite destination for capital. Though the crisis interrupted these flows at the end of 2008, the American monetary policy of "Quantitative Easing" accelerated the...

China has become the world’s third largest exporter and will doubtless be number one in less than ten years. The recent elimination of textile quotas has opened European and North American markets to Chinese textile products. But machinery, electrical and electronic products actually account for the bulk of Chinese exports. These products stem main...

The paper analyses the rapid progress and the consequences of China's integration in Asian production networks. International processing activities, based on Asian inputs and mainly carried out by Asian affiliates have been the engine of China's trade expansion in the nineties. China's position in « triangular trade », characterised by deficits wit...

The paper shows that China's outstanding export performance is directly linked to its integration in the international segmentation of production processes. China has engaged in production sharing with Asian countries and has specialized in assembly operations, which has allowed for a rapid diversification of its manufactured exports, from textiles...

Foreign investment and Chinese technological take off Last decade, China inflows lots of direct investments which contribute to bring up to date its industrial exports and its production apparatus. The increase of its exports and their quick technological rise are due to foreign firms set up in China and particularly wholly foreign owned subsidiar...

This study addresses the case of three emerging countries which have followed opening up policies in different regional environments. Ten years ago, the specialization patterns of China, India and Turkey were similar but they have diverged since. Their participation in the international division of labor has far-reaching effects on their imports of...

This structural analysis of China's foreign trade shows that its outstanding performance in world markets is directly linked to its involvement in the international segmentation of production processes. China's tariff policy in favour of processing activities proved very successful in creating export-oriented industries based on imported inputs. Pr...

In the 1990s, China has taken a rising importance in various world markets, including in technology products. China has entered these product markets, characterized by a fast-rising international demand and strong productivity growth, thanks to its specialisation in assembly activities, which are labour-intensive and in which it has a comparative a...

China’s rising importance in various world markets, including in technology-intensive products, should not hide the dualism which characterises its industry. Some of its industrial sectors are highly competitive, and strongly integrated in international trade networks in high-tech products. They are dominated by foreign companies specialised in ass...

La Chine a été un acteur majeur dans la montée des déséquilibres mondiaux au milieu des années 2000. Elle a réduit son excédent commercial global depuis 2007, mais conserve des excédents massifs sur les États-Unis et l'Europe. Sa demande d'importation s'est principalement adressée à ses voisins asiatiques et aux pays producteurs de matières premièr...

[fre] Les pays de la peripherie est et sud de l'Union europeenne realisent avec celle-ci l'essentiel de leurs echanges commerciaux. La reemergence des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale dans le commerce de l'Union europeenne depuis dix ans s'est traduite par une forte progression de leurs exportations, mais celle-ci ne s'est pas faite au detriment...

The global crisis is forcing China’s economy to become less dependent on foreign markets. Manufacturing industry has to adjust to changes in international demand. Foreign affiliates’ processed exports are vulnerable to the slow-down of Western demand, while Chinese exporting firms are better placed to switch to dynamic emerging markets. China’s ord...