Francis Bismans

Francis Bismans
University of Lorraine | UdL · Economics

Phd in Economics

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36
Publications
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83
Citations
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September 2001 - December 2015
University of Lorraine
Position
  • Professor (Full)

Publications

Publications (36)
Book
Full-text available
Ce livre a pour objet de retracer les liens entre mathématiques et analyse économique. Il étudie ces relations sur le mode historique, du xviie siècle jusqu’à nos jours. Il dresse ainsi une généalogie de l’économie quantitative sous ses deux formes principales : économie mathématique et économétrie. The purpose of this book is to trace the links b...
Book
Full-text available
Depuis la Grande Dépression de 1929 et même plus tôt dans le passé, les crises se succèdent: l'économie doit-elle périodiquement "en passer par là" pour rebondir ensuite? Et s'il était possible d'éviter ces "montagnes russes" économiques? Quelles solutions alors mettre en œuvre? Et dans quelle mesure, nous, simples citoyens, pouvons-nous en être ac...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper aims to estimate the electricity demand in the short and long term for France over the period 1990-Q1 to 2015-Q3. The main results are the following: while the level of economic activity and the level of electricity prices are the determinants of long-run electricity demand, the short-term variations of the latter depend on the variation...
Chapter
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This chapter is devoted to the study of the German business cycle. In the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, it considers its classical form, which is represented by fluctuations in the series of the real Gross Domestic Product. After a methodological introduction, the chapter presents the main features of the German business cycle after dating it. T...
Chapter
Technical progress and economic growth occur mainly in cycles of efforts and tensions, with breaks of various scales and intensity. Economic history shows how relativistic these movements are: they are not necessarily to be found in all economic systems nor in all countries. Some characterise a period, others an economy. Hence the nature of each cy...
Book
Full-text available
Comment une « crisette » sur un segment du marché immobilier américain (les subprimes ou prêts hypothécaires de qualité médiocre) at -elle pu mettre la planète financière internationale sens dessous dessus ? Comment cette crise financière « systémique » at -elle pu s'accompagner d'une récession qualifiée de Grande Récession ? Et cette récession don...
Book
Full-text available
The title is sufficiently explicit: the publication is a handbook devoted to probability theory and mathematical statistics. Note the subtitle: Prelude to econometrics, which means that the book is designed for economists and econometricians.
Book
Chapter 1 delivers an overview of the debate about cycles before the 1970s. Chapter 2 completes this survey by presenting the main empirical investigations since that time. Finally, Chapters 3 and 4 illustrate the discourse, by presenting, in the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, original case studies on France, South Africa, and Germany. An afterwa...
Chapter
This chapter is focused on the dating of the classical business cycle. It develops the relevant methodology, explains the regime switching models, presents the estimation technics and the associated tests, and finally offers applications to the dating of the French cycle and a Markov-switching model to the South African economy.
Chapter
From a theoretical point of view, the period after World War II was dominated by what was called the “neo-classical synthesis”. Questioning the neo-classical synthesis led also to a multiplication of non-orthodox trends. In the 1970s, the Box-Jenkins root gave birth to time series econometrics which brought about a new way of looking at business cy...
Chapter
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This text begins with a critical evaluation of the standard macroeconomic model. It gives a plea for mixing today macroeconomics and Hendry's econometric methodology.
Article
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This paper applies a Markov-switching dynamic regression model to the real quarterly GDP time series from 1981 to 2010 in order to detect turning points in the South African business cycle. The model comprises several explicative variables. These include short- and long-term interest rates, monetary aggregates as well as the difference between long...
Article
Full-text available
In this article, we focus on the ability of two financial variables—the yield curve spread and the euro–US dollar exchange rate—to predict French recessions over the period 1979–2010. First, we propose a turning point chronology for the French business cycle based on a classical conception of economic cycles and a non-parametric dating algorithm ap...
Article
Full-text available
The Economic Cycle: A Synthesis This article presents a detailed synthesis of the business cycle theories, from its origins to the current period. On the basis of the traditional approaches, we present successively the statistical analysis of the business cycle, the major authors, the period of the Trente Glorieuses, the long waves, the neo-classic...
Article
Full-text available
The Austrian approach to business cycles has been seldom examined in econometric terms. This paper first reviews the essentials of that approach and the recent application of the Austrian business cycle theory in the economics literature. Quarterly data for Germany, USA, England and France, 1980:1 through 2006:1, are used to explore business cycle...
Article
Methods of Long Wave Research The answer to the question, whether long waves exist or not depends mainly on the statistical methods used for analysis. Since the seminal work of Kondratieff in the 1920th these methods underwent significant changes. The fundamental critic against the traditional approaches in the 1970th lead to the propagation and de...
Article
Full-text available
Empirical Evidence on the Austrian Business Cycles Theory. The Austrian approach to business cycles has seldom examined in econometrical terms. This paper first reviews the essentials of that approach and the recent application of the Austrian business cycle theory in the economics literature. Quarterly data for Germany, USA, England and France, 1...
Article
Full-text available
This article endeavours to measure the elasticity of the volume of the currency exchange transactions to a tax on them. The analysis is principally based on cointegration techniques. This paper is the fi rst attempt to estimate the infl uence of a currency transaction tax on the foreign exchange market volume trading. The econometric estimations su...
Article
This article deals with the genesis and dynamics of conventions in Hayek. It uses the theory of evolutionary games to develop a general model of learning by the agents. It also aims at giving an economic interpretation of the process by which the norms are generated and selected.
Article
Full-text available
Evolutionary games, learning processes and stochastic equilibria an application to Hayek’s norms economics This article deals with the genesis and dynamics of conventions in Hayek. It uses the theory of evolutionary games to develop a general model of learning by the agents. It also aims at giving an economic interpretation of the process by which...
Article
Since Auerbach and Kotlikoff's [(1987). Dynamic fiscal policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press] studies, the overlapping generations (OLG) model has become a useful modelling tool of policy evaluation. Given the lack of data on life-cycle behaviour, the parameterisation of such models is cumbersome. The purpose of this paper is to offer an ec...
Article
Since Auerbach and Kotlikoff's [(1987). Dynamic fiscal policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press] studies, the overlapping generations (OLG) model has become a useful modelling tool of policy evaluation. Given the lack of data on life-cycle behaviour, the parameterisation of such models is cumbersome. The purpose of this paper is to offer an ec...
Conference Paper
In this paper, we develop two simulation models -an optimal growth model and an overlapping generations model- to investigate the long-run effect of ageing on per capital consumption, national saving and intergenerational welfare inequalities. Using french demographic data, it is first shown that the optimal intertemporal path asks for an increase...
Article
[fre] En utilisant deux modèles, l'un de croissance optimale, l'autre à générations imbriquées, on s'efforce d'étudier l'impact sur la consommation moyenne, l'épar­gne et, indirectement, sur les inégalités entre générations du vieillissement démo­graphique. Il résulte de l'exemple français que la trajectoire optimale face aux changements de populat...
Book
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The full text is downloadable on: http://www.academieroyale.be/academie/documents/HQ2X114512.pdf
Article
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Résumé Au moment même où le processus d'intégration monétaire européen se rapproche d'échéances importantes, plusieurs pays se trouvent dans une situation d'endettement préoccupante. La réduction des déficits et de la dette publique est devenue un des principaux objectifs de politique économique et ce, d'autant plus que le Traité de Maastricht reti...
Article
Full-text available
Alors que l’utilité de l’instauration d’une taxe Tobin fait l’objet de débats intenses, les travaux scientifiques qui y sont consacrés sont globalement méconnus. Le présent article en rend compte en se focalisant sur ceux d’entre eux qui font usage de la théorie des jeux er de l’économétrie.

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