Francesco S. R. Pausata

Francesco S. R. Pausata
Université du Québec à Montréal | UQAM · Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

Ph.D.

About

89
Publications
22,543
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Introduction
Francesco S. R. Pausata currently works at the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences , Université du Québec à Montréal. Francesco S. R. does research in Climatology and Paleoclimatology.

Publications

Publications (89)
Article
A large ensemble of Earth System Model simulations is analyzed to show that high-latitude Northern Hemisphere eruptions give rise to El Niño-like anomalies in the winter following the eruption, the amplitude of which depends on the state of the tropical Pacific at the time of the eruption. The El Niño-like anomalies are almost three times larger wh...
Article
Full-text available
The West African Monsoon (WAM) is crucial for the socio-economic stability of millions of people living in the Sahel. Severe droughts have ravaged the region in the last three decades of the 20th century, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the WAM dynamics. One of the most dramatic changes in the West African Monsoon (WAM) occurred...
Article
The last deglaciation (20.0–10.0 kyr B.P.) was punctuated by two major cooling events affecting the Northern Hemisphere: the Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0–14.7 kyr B.P.) and the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.8–11.5 kyr B.P.). Greenland ice core δ18O temperature reconstructions suggest that the YD was as cold as the OD, despite a 50 ppmv increase in atmospheric...
Article
Full-text available
Numerical model scenarios of future climate depict a global increase in temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, primarily driven by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Aerosol particles also play an important role by altering the Earth's radiation budget and consequently surface temperature. Here, we use the general circulatio...
Article
[1] In this study we use a global climate model to assess particulate matter (PM) variability induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Europe during winter and the potential impact on human health of a future shift in the NAO mean state. Our study shows that extreme NAO phases in the 1990s modulated most of the interannual variability of...
Article
Full-text available
The Holocene hydroclimate evolution and underlying mechanisms modulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) remains controversial, especially in south eastern China. Here we present a multiproxy peat record of monsoon evolution from southeastern China covering the last 14 ka. Our new records show a relatively weaker EASM but wetter hydroclimate d...
Preprint
Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by c...
Article
Full-text available
Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) with 200 members for the historical simulation (1850–2005), we investigate the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. In particular, we select three eruptions (El Chichón, Agung and Pinatubo) in which the aerosol is respectiv...
Article
Full-text available
Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at a pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, and economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record and Earth arch...
Article
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Previous studies based on multiple paleoclimate archives suggested a prominent intensification of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) during the mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6000 years before present). The main forcing that contributed to this intensification is related to changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. Nonetheless, other key factors likely played impo...
Article
Full-text available
We use a high-resolution regional climate model to investigate the changes in Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity during the period of the mid-Holocene (MH: 6000 years BP) with a larger amplitude of the seasonal cycle relative to today. This period was characterized by increased boreal summer insolation over the Northern Hemisphere, a vegetated...
Article
Full-text available
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects atmospheric variability from eastern North America to Europe. Although the link between the NAO and winter precipitations in eastern North America has been the focus of previous work, only few studies have considered extreme precipitation and hitherto provided clear physical explanations on these relatio...
Preprint
Full-text available
Previous studies based on multiple paleoclimate archives suggested a prominent intensification of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) during the mid-Holocene (MH, ~ 6000 years before present day). The main forcing that contributed to this intensification is related to changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. However, other key factors likely played imp...
Chapter
The response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to tropical and extratropical volcanic eruptions has important worldwide implications for volcanically driven risk estimates. While there have been many studies on this subject using observations, paleoclimate archives, and model simulations, a comprehensive review of ENSO response to tropical...
Preprint
Full-text available
We use a high-resolution regional climate model to investigate the changes in Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity during a warm climate state, the mid-Holocene (MH: 6,000 yrs BP). This period was characterized by increased boreal summer insolation, a vegetated Sahara, and reduced airborne dust concentrations. A set of sensitivity experiments we...
Article
Full-text available
We evaluate the longitudinal variation in meridional shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings using a large suite of coupled climate model simulations. We find that the energetic framework of the zonal mean Hadley cell is generally not useful for characterizing shifts of the rainbelt at regional scales, rega...
Article
Full-text available
Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during thi...
Preprint
Full-text available
Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) with 200 members for the historical simulation (1850–2005), we investigate the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the ENSO response. In particular, we select 3 eruptions (El Chichón, Agung and Pinatubo) in which the aerosol is respectively confined to the Northern Hemisp...
Article
Full-text available
The mechanisms through which volcanic eruptions affect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state are still controversial. Previous studies have invoked direct radiative forcing, an ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism, and shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), among others, to explain the ENSO response to tropical eruptions...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects atmospheric variability from eastern North America to Europe. Although the link between the NAO and winter precipitations in the eastern North America have been the focus of previous work, only few studies have hitherto provided clear physical explanations on these relationships. In this study...
Article
Full-text available
Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental recons...
Article
Full-text available
In the future, the Sahara and Sahelian regions could experience more rainfall than today as a result of climate change. Wetter periods, termed African humid periods, occurred in the past and witnessed a mesic landscape in place of today’s hyperarid and semiarid environment. Such large past changes raise the question of whether the near future might...
Article
Full-text available
Many Holocene hydroclimate records show rainfall changes that vary with local orbital insolation. However, some tropical regions display rainfall evolution that differs from gradual precessional pacing, suggesting that direct rainfall forcing effects were predominantly driven by sea-surface temperature thresholds or inter-ocean temperature gradient...
Article
Full-text available
The Central Asian Pamir Mountains (Pamirs) are a high-altitude region sensitive to climatic change, with only few paleoclimatic records available. To examine the glacial-interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analyzed the geochemical parameters of a 31-kyr record from Lake Karakul and performed a set of experiments with climate models...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation (NHLMP) provides water resources for about two thirds of the world's population, which is vital for infrastructure planning, disaster mitigation, food security, and economic development. Changes in land cover and dust emissions may significantly influence the NHLMP, but observati...
Article
Full-text available
Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Current LULC scenarios are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to...
Article
Full-text available
Volcanic eruptions can affect global climate through changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation, and therefore could impact tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Here, we use ensemble simulations performed with an Earth System Model to investigate the impact of strong volcanic eruptions occurring in the tropical Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) Hemisphe...
Article
Full-text available
Planetary wave-breaking can lead to large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and favour high-impact weather occurrences. For example, the simultaneous occurrence of anti-cyclonic wave-breaking to the south of the North Atlantic jet and cyclonic wave-breaking to the north, here termed double wave-breaking, has been linked to heightened frequenc...
Article
During the mid‐Holocene (6 kyr BP), West Africa experienced a much stronger and geographically extensive monsoon than in the present day. Changes in orbital forcing, vegetation and dust emissions from the Sahara have been identified as key factors driving this intensification. Here, we analyse how the timing, origin and convergence of moisture flux...
Poster
Full-text available
As a collaborative activity within the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) working group, this work aims to bring together evidence from a wide range of scientific and scholarly disciplines in order to piece together a holistic and unbiased picture of the connections between volcanism and climate in the mid-15...
Article
Full-text available
Air quality management is strongly driven by legislative aspects related to the exceedance of air quality limit values. Here, we use the Norwegian Climate Centre’s Earth System Model to assess the impact of a future scenario of maximum feasible aerosol emission abatement and increasing greenhouse gases (RCP4.5) on urban PM2.5 concentrations in Euro...
Article
Full-text available
Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are des...
Article
Full-text available
Volcanic eruptions can impact the mass balance of ice sheets through changes in climate and the radiative properties of the ice. Yet, empirical evidence highlighting the sensitivity of ancient ice sheets to volcanism is scarce. Here we present an exceptionally well-dated annual glacial varve chronology recording the melting history of the Fennoscan...
Article
Full-text available
The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding the West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics in the mid-Holocene (MH) is a crucial issue in climate modeling, because numerical models typically fail to reproduce the extensive precipitation suggested by proxy evidence. This discrepancy may be largely due to the assumption of both unrealistic land surface cover and atmospheric aerosol conc...
Article
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have devastating socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the nature and causes of their variability is of paramount importance for society. However, historical records of TCs are too short to fully characterize such changes and paleosediment archives of Holocene TC activity are temporally and geographically sparse. Thus, it...
Article
Full-text available
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have devastating socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the nature and causes of their variability is of paramount importance for society. However, historical records of TCs are too short to fully characterize such changes and paleo-sediment archives of Holocene TC activity are temporally and geographically sparse. Thus, i...
Article
Full-text available
During the “Green Sahara” period (11,000 to 5000 years before the present), the Sahara desert received high amounts of rainfall, supporting diverse vegetation, permanent lakes, and human populations. Our knowledge of rainfall rates and the spatiotemporal extent of wet conditions has suffered from a lack of continuous sedimentary records. We present...
Article
Full-text available
Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for Tier 1 simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127,000 years before present)...
Article
Full-text available
Experiments with a climate model (NorESM1) were performed to isolate the effects of aerosol particles and greenhouse gases on surface temperature and precipitation in simulations of future climate. The simulations show that by 2025-49 a reduction of aerosol emissions from fossil fuels following a maximum technically feasible reduction (MFR) scenari...
Article
Full-text available
Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of paleoclimate simulations in the present phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Equilibrium simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127,000 years before present) are designed to examine the impact of changes...
Article
Full-text available
Here we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model to investigate the plume development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war between emerging third-world nuclear powers. We simulate a standard scenario where 5 Tg of black carbon (BC) is emitted over 1 day in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere...
Article
A generalized linear model based on Poisson regression has been used to assess the impact of environmental variables modulating tropical cyclone frequency in six main cyclone development areas: the East Pacific, West Pacific, North Atlantic, North Indian, South Indian, and South Pacific. The analysis covers the period 1980-2009 and focuses on widel...
Article
Full-text available
The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic re- sponse to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled cli- mate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of th...
Article
The summer rainfall across Sahelian-Sudan is one of the main sources of water for agriculture, human, and animal needs. However, the rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability, which has attracted extensive scientific efforts to understand it. This study attempts to identify the source regions that contribute to the Sahelian-Sudan m...
Article
Full-text available
The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Cl...
Article
On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition; Copenhagen, Denmark, 26–28 October 2015