Florence Gaub

Florence Gaub
European Council · ART

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25
Publications
4,227
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121
Citations

Publications

Publications (25)
Article
Full-text available
This article finds that in contrast to other cases of civil–military relations in the region, Libya does not fit a regular praetorian stereotype; rather, the interaction between its armed forces and their civilian counterparts has been paternalistic in nature. As a result, the Libyan military was the subject of destructive civilian interference thr...
Chapter
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are often portrayed as an exception among Arab armies: rarely involved in politics, plural in nature, passive operationally, yet universally admired by virtually all groups in Lebanon. In fact, closer examination reveals that, for every apparent idiosyncrasy, the army has a regional counterpart with similar features....
Article
In a world increasingly shaped by unexpected events and developments – ranging from ‘strategic surprises’ like 9/11 or the Arab Spring to the unintended consequences of often well-meant decisions – trying to imagine contingencies that challenge current assumptions may well prove a useful exercise. This Report presents a number of grey swan scenari...
Article
Kurzfassung Der Artikel befasst sich mit der Kritik an dem NATO Einsatz Unified Protector in Libyen im Sommer 2011. Er setzt sich mit den fünf hauptsächlichen Argumenten der Kritiker auseinander. Diese sind: (1) Der Konflikt zwischen Bürgern und Regierung sei von außen induziert worden, (2) das Gaddafi Regime hätte den Konflikt politisch oder milit...
Article
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The Islamic State is a cult; it cannot be fought as a mere terrorist organisation or a proto-state with territorial ambitions.
Article
This article proposes three key scenarios for the Arab world in 2025: one optimistic, one pessimistic and one in between. All three depend on how Arab decision makers tackle the key challenges identified today – youth unemployment and insecurity in particular.
Article
The Middle East is a multipolar middle power system defined by a balance of weakness: none of the states is strong enough to be a hegemon, but all of them are strong enough to prevent each other from becoming one. This structure is in itself a challenge to stability, but it is even further when the system experiences fundamental change in capabilit...
Article
Full-text available
In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only s...
Article
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Libya's current woes were not pre-ordained, but its politics are caught in a vicious circle. Those who created the crisis are the only ones who can resolve it.
Article
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Although seen by many as an unequivocal supporter of Gaddafi's power basis, the Libyan military's reaction to the 2011 uprising was far from unified: plagued by desertion as well as disintegration, the regime managed to rely only on the hard core of its armed forces. This was mostly a result of the regime's decade-long coup-proofing measures which...
Article
Libya: Has Gaddafi’s Dream Come True? Libya can manage a relatively peaceful and effective transition because part of the logic and institutions of the Libyan Jamahiriya paradoxically survived the 2011 revolution. The country must nevertheless decide on major reforms, settle the unitary state/federal state debate, profoundly reshape its political i...
Article
Full-text available
This book examines the role of multiethnic armies in post-conflict reconstruction, and demonstrates how they can promote peacebuilding efforts. The author challenges the assumption that multiethnic composition leads to weakness of the military, and shows how a multiethnic army is frequently the impetus for peacemaking in multiethnic societies. Thre...

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