Fiona Fidler

Fiona Fidler
University of Melbourne | MSD · School of BioSciences | School of Historical and Philosophical Studies

PhD

About

104
Publications
51,591
Reads
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6,716
Citations
Additional affiliations
February 2015 - February 2016
RMIT University
Position
  • Senior Researcher

Publications

Publications (104)
Article
Journal peer review regulates the flow of ideas through an academic discipline and thus has the power to shape what a research community knows, actively investigates, and recommends to policymakers and the wider public. We might assume that editors can identify the ‘best’ experts and rely on them for peer review. But decades of research on both exp...
Preprint
Background Various stakeholders are calling for increased availability of data and code from cancer research. However, it is unclear how commonly these products are shared, and what factors are associated with sharing. Our objective was to evaluate how frequently oncology researchers make data and code available, and explore factors associated with...
Article
Replication—an important, uncommon, and misunderstood practice—is gaining appreciation in psychology. Achieving replicability is important for making research progress. If findings are not replicable, then prediction and theory development are stifled. If findings are replicable, then interrogation of their meaning and validity can advance knowledg...
Article
Full-text available
Unreliable research programmes waste funds, time, and even the lives of the organisms we seek to help and understand. Reducing this waste and increasing the value of scientific evidence require changing the actions of both individual researchers and the institutions they depend on for employment and promotion. While ecologists and evolutionary biol...
Article
Numerous studies have demonstrated low but increasing rates of data and code sharing within medical and health research disciplines. However, it remains unclear how commonly data and code are shared across all fields of medical and health research, as well as whether sharing rates are positively associated with implementation of progressive policie...
Article
Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically to derive a final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations of judgments) provide an objective approach to agg...
Article
Full-text available
Solutions to the crisis in confidence in the psychological literature have been proposed in many recent articles, including increased publication of replication studies, a solution that requires engagement by the psychology research community. We surveyed Australian and Italian academic research psychologists about the meaning and role of replicati...
Article
Numerous studies have demonstrated low but increasing rates of data and code sharing within medical and health research disciplines. However it remains unclear how commonly data and code are shared across all fields of medical and health research, as well as whether sharing rates are positively associated with implementation of progressive policies...
Preprint
This paper explores judgements about the replicability of social and behavioural sciences research, and what drives those judgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws on qualitative and quantitative data elicited using a structured iterative approach for eliciting judgements from groups, called the IDEA protocol (‘Investigate’, ‘Discuss’, ‘...
Preprint
Full-text available
Assessing the credibility of research claims is a central, continuous, and laborious part of the scientific process. Credibility assessment strategies range from expert judgment to aggregating existing evidence to systematic replication efforts. Such assessments can require substantial time and effort. Research progress could be accelerated if ther...
Preprint
Full-text available
Experts are often asked to represent their uncertainty as a subjective probability. Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine probability judgements from multiple experts. As part of this process, experts are asked to individually estimate a probability (e.g., of a future event) which needs to be combined/agg...
Preprint
Full-text available
Replication is a hallmark of scientific research. As replications of individual studies are resource intensive, techniques for predicting the replicability are required. We introduce a new technique to evaluating replicability, the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process, a structured expert elicitation approach based...
Preprint
Replication, an important, uncommon, and misunderstood practice, is making a comeback in psychology. Achieving replicability is a necessary but not sufficient condition for making research progress. If findings are not replicable, then prediction and theory development are stifled. If findings are replicable, then interrogation of their meaning and...
Article
Full-text available
Peer review practices differ substantially between journals and disciplines. This study presents the results of a survey of 322 editors of journals in ecology, economics, medicine, physics and psychology. We found that 49% of the journals surveyed checked all manuscripts for plagiarism, that 61% allowed authors to recommend both for and against spe...
Preprint
Peer review practices differ substantially between journals and disciplines. This study presents the results of a survey of 322 journal editors of high-impact journals in ecology, economics, medicine, physics and psychology. Editors were asked for details about peer review policies and practices at their journals, as well as their views on five pub...
Preprint
Many recent articles have proposed solutions to the crisis in confidence in the psychology literature, including increased publication of replication studies, a solution that requires engagement by the psychology research community. We surveyed Australian and Italian academic research psychologists about the meaning and role of replication in psych...
Article
Full-text available
Beef production is a major driver of biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions globally, and multiple studies recommend reducing beef production and consumption. Although there have been significant efforts from the biodiversity conservation sector toward reducing beef‐production impacts, there has been comparatively much less engagement in re...
Article
Because the conservation of biodiversity is a social and political process, conservation policies are more effective if they can create shifts in attitudes and/or behaviours. As such, communication and advocacy approaches that influence attitudes and behaviours are key to addressing conservation problems. It is well established that the way an issu...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Community of Open Scholarship Grassroots Networks (COSGN), includes 120 grassroots networks, representing virtually every region of the world and every research discipline. These networks communicate and coordinate on topics of common interest. We propose, using an NSF 19-501 Full-Scale implementation grant, to formalize governance and coordina...
Preprint
Recent large-scale projects in other disciplines have shown that results often fail to replicate when studies are repeated. The conditions contributing to this problem are also present in ecology but there have not been any equivalent replication projects. Here we examine ecologists’ understanding of and opinions about replication studies. When ask...
Article
Full-text available
Changing human behavior and attitudes are key to conserving global biodiversity. Despite evidence from other disciplines that strategic messaging can influence behavior and attitudes, it remains unclear how to best design messages to benefit biodiversity. We conducted a systematic literature review to investigate the status of conservation messagin...
Article
Current global enthusiasm for urban greening and bringing nature back into cities is unprecedented. Evidence of the socioecological benefits of large, permanent greenspaces is mounting, but the collective potential for pop‐up parks (PUPs) – small, temporary greenspaces – to augment urban ecosystem services is unknown. To showcase the potential of P...
Article
Full-text available
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. ‘very likely’) in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. Simply providing numerical translations alongside reports or text containing verbal probabilities should encourage consistency, but these guidelines are often ignored. In an online...
Article
Full-text available
Background: The events of 9/11 and the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction precipitated fundamental changes within the United States Intelligence Community. As part of the reform, analytic tradecraft standards were revised and codified into a policy document – Intelligence Commun...
Preprint
This report outlines: a) a need for objective, transparent and usable criteria for judging the decision-readiness of published research evidence and b) the many, important research challenges associated with producing such criteria and ensuring their uptake in the scientific community and beyond. It was produced by Focus Group 2 at TECSS.
Article
Full-text available
We surveyed 807 researchers (494 ecologists and 313 evolutionary biologists) about their use of Questionable Research Practices (QRPs), including cherry picking statistically significant results, p hacking, and hypothesising after the results are known (HARKing). We also asked them to estimate the proportion of their colleagues that use each of the...
Data
Questionable research practice survey. (PDF)
Data
Disambiguating QRP 1 cherry-picking vs the file drawer. (DOCX)
Article
Full-text available
Natural resource management uses expert judgement to estimate facts that inform important decisions. Unfortunately, expert judgement is often derived by informal and largely untested protocols, despite evidence that the quality of judgements can be improved with structured approaches. We attribute the lack of uptake of structured protocols to the d...
Data
Demographic data and analysis. (PDF)
Article
Peer review is widely considered fundamental to maintaining the rigour of science, but it often fails to ensure transparency and reduce bias in published papers, and this systematically weakens the quality of published inferences. In part, this is because many reviewers are unaware of important questions to ask with respect to the soundness of the...
Preprint
Peer review is widely considered fundamental to maintaining the rigor of science, but it is an imperfect process. In that context, it is noteworthy that formal standards or guidelines for peer reviews themselves are rarely discussed in many disciplines, including ecology and evolutionary biology. Some may argue that a dearth of explicit guidelines...
Preprint
Peer review is widely considered fundamental to maintaining the rigor of science, but it is an imperfect process. In that context, it is noteworthy that formal standards or guidelines for peer reviews themselves are rarely discussed in many disciplines, including ecology and evolutionary biology. Some may argue that a dearth of explicit guidelines...
Article
en Article impact statement: Continued development of conservation psychology is essential to addressing the challenges of biodiversity conservation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
Preprint
We surveyed 807 researchers (494 ecologists and 313 evolutionary biologists) about their use of Questionable Research Practices (QRPs), including cherry picking statistically significant results, p hacking, and hypothesising after the results are known (HARKing). We also asked them to estimate the proportion of their colleagues that use each of the...
Preprint
We surveyed 807 researchers (494 ecologists and 313 evolutionary biologists) about their use of Questionable Research Practices (QRPs), including cherry picking statistically significant results, p hacking, and hypothesising after the results are known (HARKing). We also asked them to estimate the proportion of their colleagues that use each of the...
Article
Market-based instruments along with conceptualizing the environment as a collection of ‘ecosystem services’ has become increasingly common within environmental and conservation policy. This kind of thinking is also increasingly prominent in the public discourse surrounding environment and conservation policy, particularly in the context of communic...
Article
Full-text available
We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance for claims of new discoveries from 0.05 to 0.005.
Preprint
Full-text available
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold forstatistical significance for claims of new discoveries from 0.05 to 0.005."
Article
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Recent replication projects in other disciplines have uncovered disturbingly low levels of reproducibility, suggesting that those research literatures may contain unverifiable claims. The conditions contributing to irreproducibility in other disciplines are also present in ecology. These include a large discrepancy between the proportion of “positi...
Article
We welcome the comment from Clark et al. [1xSee all References][1] and are gratified that they found value in our article. In response, we would like to state that our paper was devoted to exploring relatively well-developed empirical evidence of insufficient transparency in ecology and evolution. We did not review fraud because there is an absence...
Article
To make progress scientists need to know what other researchers have found and how they found it. However, transparency is often insufficient across much of ecology and evolution. Researchers often fail to report results and methods in detail sufficient to permit interpretation and meta-analysis, and many results go entirely unreported. Further, th...
Article
Full-text available
This study presents the results of an approach to the prediction of the outcomes of geopolitical events, which we term the IDEA protocol. The participants investigate the background and causal factors behind a question, predict the outcome, and discuss their thinking with others. They then make a second, private and anonymous judgement of the proba...
Article
Towards the end of the last century, statistical reporting in medical research underwent substantial reform, with null hypothesis significance testing replaced with an estimation approach. Interestingly, this reform may have been largely motivated by the social costs of error within medical research, rather than simply scientific error per se. This...
Article
Full-text available
The topic of advocacy by scientists has been debated for decades, yet there is little agreement about whether scientists can or should be advocates. The fear of crossing a line into advocacy continues to hold many scientists back from contributing to public discourse, impoverishing public debate about important issues. We believe that progress in t...
Article
1. In field surveys, ecological researchers and practitioners routinely make quantitative judgements that are known to vary in quality. Feedback about judgement accuracy is crucial for improving estimation performance, yet is not usually afforded to fieldworkers. One reason it is rare lies in the difficulty of obtaining ‘true values’ (e.g. percenta...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In 2010, the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) announced a 4-year forecasting "tournament". Five collaborative research teams are attempting to outperform a baseline opinion pool in predicting hundreds of geopolitical, economic and military events. We are contributing to one of these teams by eliciting forecasts from Delph...
Chapter
We describe a six-step estimation framework for research that starts with the formulation of research goals in terms of “How much?” questions. Such questions are best answered by effect size (ES) estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) calculated from data, where the ESs estimates and CIs are point and interval estimates of population parameters....
Article
The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decisi...
Article
How the brain is lateralised for emotion processing remains a key question in contemporary neuropsychological research. The right hemisphere hypothesis asserts that the right hemisphere dominates emotion processing, whereas the valence hypothesis holds that positive emotion is processed in the left hemisphere and negative emotion is controlled by t...
Article
Aim: Expert knowledge routinely informs ecological research and decision-making. Its reliability is often questioned, but is rarely subject to empirical testing and validation. We investigate the ability of experts to make quantitative predictions of variables for which the answers are known. Location: Global. Methods: Experts in four ecological su...
Article
Full-text available
Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who...
Article
We present the results of an initial experiment that indicates that people are less overconfident and better calibrated when they assign confidence levels to someone else's interval judgements (evaluator confidences) compared to assigning confidence levels to their own interval judgements (judge confidences). We studied what impact this had on a nu...
Data
The information outlines two example questions that represent the style of the test questions used in the six workshops; one example question is for weed ecologists and the other for health epidemiologists. (DOC)
Article
Full-text available
Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1,2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienc...
Article
Suppose you obtain p = .02 in an experiment, then replicate the experiment with new samples. What p value might you obtain, and what interval has an 80% chance of including that replication p? Under conservative assumptions the answer is, perhaps surprisingly (.0003, .30). The authors report three email surveys that asked authors of articles publis...
Article
Estimation based on effect sizes, confidence intervals, and meta-analysis usually provides a more informative analysis of empirical results than does statistical significance testing, which has long been the conventional choice in psychology. The sixth edition of the American Psychological Association Publication Manual now recommends that psycholo...
Article
Our research in statistical cognition uses both qualitative and quantitative methods. A mixed method approach makes our research more comprehensive, and provides us with new directions, unexpected insights, and alternative explanations for previously established concepts. In this paper, we review four statistical cognition studies that used mixed m...
Article
Full-text available
A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), or confidence intervals (CIs). Authors of articles published in...
Article
Full-text available
Effect sizes (ESs) and confidence intervals (CIs) are widely advocated in psychology and other disciplines. To date most expository articles have focused only on univariate analyses, despite there being similarly good reasons for reporting and interpreting ESs and CIs following multivariate analyses. We surveyed articles published in leading psycho...
Article
It is a common misconception that statistical significance indicates a large and/or important effect. In fact the three concepts—statistical significance, effect size, and practical importance—are distinct from one another and a favorable result on one dimension does not guarantee the same on any other. In this article, we explain these concepts an...