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Ferda Halicioglu

Ferda Halicioglu
University of Lincoln United Kingdom · Lincoln International Business School

BSc MSc PhD

About

70
Publications
14,384
Reads
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3,630
Citations
Additional affiliations
September 2020 - present
University of Lincoln
Position
  • Lecturer
July 2015 - September 2020
Istanbul Medeniyet University
Position
  • Head of Department
September 2006 - June 2015
Yeditepe University
Position
  • Professor of Economics, Head of Department

Publications

Publications (70)
Article
The main goal of the former NAFTA and current United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) was to remove barriers to trade and increase trade in both directions. Clearly, the goal will be achieved more effectively if the real exchange rate was fixed among the three members. But they are not. They change not only due to changes in the nominal excha...
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the validity of the productivity bias hypothesis (PBH) in 18 Middle East countries. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs autoregressive-distributed lag approach to cointegration approach and stability tests. Findings The empirical results suggest the existence of the PBH only in th...
Article
This research presents first empirical evidence on the dynamic relationship between output, renewable and non-renewable energy production, international trade, capital and labour in the case of the EU-15 countries over the period of 1980–2015 for individual countries as well as a group. A simple production function of capital and labour is extended...
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A few studies in the literature have used linear models to assess the impact of changes in the value of lira on Turkish domestic production. They have found no significant long-run effects. In this paper we separate lira appreciations from depreciations and engage in asymmetry analysis. Since the procedure requires using nonlinear models, we rely u...
Article
We examine how movements in the real exchange rate impact private domestic investment. Importantly, we consider whether investment responds differently to real depreciations versus real appreciations. Using a sample of 6 emerging markets over 1980 to 2014, we show that considering asymmetric responses provides an important contribution to this lite...
Article
We use monthly data over the period 2000M1–2016M11 to assess response of U.K. trade balances with each of its 19 trading partners. When a linear ARDL model was estimated, we found short-run symmetric effects in the U.K. trade balance with 11 partners that lasted into the long-run symmetric effects in only five cases. However, when we shifted to a n...
Article
Previous studies that have assessed the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on Turkey’s trade balance with its major partners relied upon a linear adjustment process that could not find much support for favorable effects of exchange rate changes. In this paper, once we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via...
Article
As a result of the research conducted by Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell (1963), most studies estimating the demand for money today do include the exchange rate in their specification to account for currency substitution. Previous studies that did this for the Turkish demand for money assumed that exchange rate changes do have symmetric effects on th...
Article
This research presents first empirical time series evidence of the impact of international trade on environmental quality in the case of transition countries. The linkages between international trade and environmental quality are well established both theoretically and empirically in the literature. However, there exists no empirical study concerni...
Article
Recent advances in time-series and cointegration analysis have allowed for the estimation of the nonlinear effects of currency depreciations on countries’ trade balances. This study examines Mexico’s bilateral trade with 13 trade partners, applying both the linear and the nonlinear versions of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration...
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The impact of unemployment on self-employment is rather an ambiguous issue in economics. According to refugee effect approach, there are two counter arguments: the theory of income choice argument suggests that increased unemployment may lead to increased self-employment activities whereas the counter argument defends the view that an increase in u...
Article
Purpose ‐ The purpose of this research is to study empirically the dynamics of obesity in Finland and provide empirical evidence of temporal causality between obesity, health expenditure, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption and calorie intake. Design/methodology/approach ‐ The paper employs bounds testing cointegration procedure and aug...
Article
In order to test the existence of Thirlwall's law for Turkey during the 1980–2008 period, a bounds test approach to cointegration is applied. The empirical results suggest that Thirlwall's law holds for Turkey. This study also suggests some policy recommendations to curb the deficits in the balance of payments.
Article
This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to test the existence of a long-run relationship among...
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of crime in Turkey at aggregate and disaggregate levels and provide empirical evidence of temporal causality between crime, health, income, divorce, urbanization and security expenditures. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs bounds testing cointegration procedure,...
Article
This research examines dynamic causal relationships between per capita calorie intake, per capita income and food prices using time series data for Turkey during 1965-2007. ARDL cointegration analysis yields an income elasticity of calorie intake of 0.22, while the food-price elasticity is insignificant. The results suggest that economic growth in...
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This research is aimed at establishing a bivariate long-run association between FIFA country ranking and domestic football competition level in the case of Turkey. To test this hypothesis empirically, coefficient of variation values are computed seasonally for Turkish Super League over 1994-2010. This variable along the FIFA ranking of Turkey in th...
Article
Japan has the highest suicide rates among the OECD countries and this public health problem seems to be accelerating in over the recent decades. Investigating and understanding the suicidal behaviour is of crucial importance to society and health policy makers. Such an investigation could provide with useful information for those responsible in for...
Article
This study is concerned with understanding the factors of life expectancy in Turkey for the period 1965-2005. The determinants of life expectancy in Turkey are related to selected social, economical and environmental factors. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to compute the long-run elasticities of longevity with respect to the s...
Article
This study attempts to examine empirically dynamic causal relationships between aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1968-2008. This research tests the interrelationships between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure. The bounds...
Article
This paper provides further evidence on the hypothesis of the natural rate of suicide using the time series data for 15 OECD countries over the period 1970-2004. This hypothesis suggests that the suicide rate of a society could never be zero even if both the economic and the social conditions were made ideal from the point of view of suicide (Yang...
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Social discount rate (SDR) is a very crucial policy parameter in public project appraisals due to its resource allocation impacts. If this rate is too high, future generations will face excess financial burden since distant cash flows will become negligible. If this rate is too low, ineffective projects are chosen creating an inefficient allocation...
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This study focuses on estimating an economic discounting rate (EDR) to be used in project appraisals by the State Planning Organisation (SPO) of Turkey. The EDR is a policy tool used for selecting the best projects to meet the economic targets of development plans and to enable planners to choose the most profitable and feasible projects. Since the...
Article
This research examines empirically the determinants of suicides in Denmark over the period 1970-2006. To our knowledge, there exist no previous study that estimates a dynamic econometric model of suicides on the basis of time series data and cointegration framework at disaggregate level. Our results indicate that suicide is associated with a range...
Article
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Purpose: The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach and to analyze the relationship between UE and recorded GDP. Design/methodology/approach: we propose to measure UE by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co...
Article
This study is the first attempt to empirically examine the determinants of suicides in the case of Turkey using the time-series data for the period 1974–2007. This research proposes that the suicides in Turkey are related to some economic and social factors and they exhibit a dynamic relationship amongst them. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)...
Article
This study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption, income, and foreign trade in the case of Turkey using the time-series data for the period 1960–2005. This research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure. The bounds...
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The objective of this research is to provide a statistical measurement to predict the likely winners of international football tournaments with particular reference to the Euro 2008 football tournament. This research argues that there exists a positive relationship between the competitive balance and success in international football tournaments. T...
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This study is concerned with the foreign direct investments flows from and out of Turkey in terms of regional and sectoral distributions during the period of 2000-2007. It is noted that Turkey imports substantial amount of foreign direct investment from the European continent. The majority of the foreign direct investments flows into Turkey is plac...
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This article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective...
Article
This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Turkey with her 13 trading partners using quarterly time series data over the period 1985–2005. Short- and long-run impacts of the depreciation of Turkish lira on the trade balance between Turkey and her 13 trading partners are estimated from the bounds cointegration testing approach and...
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This article analyses statistical reasoning of Spain’s Euro 2008 success. It argues that Spain success is related to its high level of domestic competition. This line argument was also supported with the examples from previous Euro football tournaments.
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[eng] Transportation costs and monopoly location in presence of regional disparities. . This article aims at analysing the impact of the level of transportation costs on the location choice of a monopolist. We consider two asymmetric regions. The heterogeneity of space lies in both regional incomes and population sizes: the first region is endowed...
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This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relat...
Article
I study a budget-constrained, private-valuation, sealed-bid sequential auction with two incompletely-informed, risk-neutral bidders in which the valuations and income may be non-monotonic functions of a bidder's type. Multiple equilibrium symmetric bidding functions may exist that differ in allocation, efficiency and revenue. The sequence of sale a...
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade between Turkey and her nine trading partners, in addition to aggregate trade balance data. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs cointegration, generalized impulse response analysis, and stability tests. Findings – The empirical results sug...
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This study presents new empirical evidence on the relationship between the level of economic growth and defense expenditures in the case of Turkey for the period of 1950-2002. On using new macroeconomic theory and multivariate cointegration procedure, this study demonstrates empirically that there exists a positive long-run relationship between agg...
Article
This study provides empirical estimates for new residential homes demand function in Turkey using the time series data for the period 1964â2004. An aggregate demand function for new private dwellings in Turkey is formed and is estimated using bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and long-run...
Article
This study is concerned with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth across the world for the period 1991?2001. This article produces fresh empirical evidence on the relation between FDI and economic growth obtained from single-equation and simultaneous-equation estimates for 140 countries using macroeconomic variables. The results indi...
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This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...
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Introduction - 1 Outcome of uncertainty and competitive balance in professional team sports - 2 Measurement of competitive balance in professional team sports - 3 Football point systems and competitive balance: empirical evidence - 4. Concluding remarks
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This study aims at predicting the most likely winners of international football tournaments. To this end, this paper employs a relatively simple statistical method, which is based on the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points from domestic football leagues to measure the degree of competitive balance and to use it as a...
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As a professional sport, professional football teams in a league compete in imperfect market conditions since every team in a professional football league may be known by their differentiated product (i.e. the quality of football they play). If the competition level increases, the quality of football being played may also increase. Thus, consumers`...
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This paper analyses the determinants of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Turkey from four major geographical regions and at aggregate level with a special emphasis on Turkey’s application to the European Union (EU) to become a full member in 1987. In contrast to previous studies this paper divides the inward FDI flows into Turkey f...
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This study empirically examines aggregate tourism demand function for Turkey using the time series data for the period 1960-2002. The total tourist arrivals into Turkey are related to world income, relative prices and transportation cost. We employ bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and lon...
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This study utilizes the new macroeconomic theory and multivariate cointegration analysis in search of the effects of aggregate defense spending on aggregate output in Turkey. This study provides the empirical evidence that there is a strong positive long-run relationship between aggregate defense spending and aggregate output in Turkey over the est...
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This study is concerned with the components of the total seigniorage revenues that have been collected by the Turkish governments during the years 1970-1997. Traditionally, a government can increase the monetary base in order to finance its expenditures partially. This form of monetary finance is related to active seigniorage revenues. On the other...
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The existing economic literature on the black economy and its measurable size is mainly based on industrialized western countries. This paper, however, tries to estimate the size of the black economy empirically in the case of a developing country: Turkey. According to the monetary approach that this paper has also adopted, the size of the black ec...
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This paper statistically analyses and attempts to predict the most likely winners of the Euro 2000 football tournament on the basis of the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points, which were computed from the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000. The CV values computed from over ten seaso...
Article
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This paper analyses the impact of point systems on the degree of competition in professional football leagues via the annual coefficient of variation (CV) of end-of-season points. The past, existing and some alternative point systems were applied to a hypothetical football league consisting of eighteen teams to find out changes in the CV value, whi...
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This paper presents an empirical analysis of Wagner's law in the case of Turkey over the period 1960–2000. The paper uses modern time-series econometric techniques to test the law's proposition that in the course of economic development, government expenditures increase. The results of this study do not support the empirical validity of Wagner's la...
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This paper empirically analyses the stability of the narrow money demand function (M1) in Turkey for the period 1950?2002. As part of the IMF sponsored stabilisation programme, Turkey has been pursuing base money targets. To ascertain whether this policy framework satisfies the necessary condition for effectiveness, we estimate and test for the sta...
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This study analyses the static effects of the customs union between Turkey and the European Union (abbreviated as CUTEU) and its alternatives from the partial equlibrium view. The first section of this study outlines the main economic effects of a customs union as well as the main methods of estimating those effects. The second section consists of...
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This study aims at the dynamic effects of the customs union between Turkey and the European Union (abbreviated as CUTEU) from the partial equlibrium view. This aricle consists of three parts. The first part of the article analyses briefly the static and dynamic effects and their measurement methods in customs union. The second part of the article i...
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This study brifly looks into the process of Turkey into the world economy and concludes that this process has been accelareted in the 1990s.
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This study is based on a statistical analysis of the Turkish professional football and provides a football competition index for over 40 years.
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This study is primarily concerned with the degree of professional football competition in the Turkish first division football since its establishment. Moreover, this article aims to find the optimal number of football teams in a league as well as presenting the effects of the changes in point system on the degree of football competition. Finally, t...
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This study seeks for the sustainability of budget deficits using a simple quantitative model. This work reveals that the Turkish budget deficits in 1998 are not sustainable according to the alternative scenerios are formed.
Article
This paper statistically analyses and attempts to predict the most likely winners of the Euro 2000 football tournament on the basis of the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points, which were computed from the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000.The CV values computed from over ten season...
Article
Full-text available
This paper tests the existence of Gibson paradox using the traditional and modern time series techniques in the case of annual Turkish data. Even though the results from the traditional Gibson paradox regression suggested a positive relationship between the interest rates and the prices levels in Turkish data, subsequently it was proven to be spuri...
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Full-text available
This paper tests the existence of Gibson paradox using the traditional and modern time series techniques in the case of a developing country, Turkey. Even though the results from the traditional Gibson paradox regression suggested a positive relationship between the interest rates and the prices levels in Turkish data, subsequently it was proven to...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents an empirical analysis of Wagner's law in the case of Turkey over the period 1960-2000. The paper uses modern time-series econometric techniques to test the law's proposition that in the course of economic development, government expenditures increase. The results of this study do not support the empirical validity of Wagner's la...
Article
Full-text available
This study is the first attempt to empirically examine the determinants of suicides in the case of Turkey using the time-series data for the period 1974-2007. This research proposes that the suicides in Turkey are related to some economic and social factors and they exhibit a dynamic relationship amongst them. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)...
Article
Full-text available
This study is the first attempt to empirically examine the determinants of suicides in the case of Turkey using the time-series data for the period 1974-2007. This research proposes that the suicides in Turkey are related to some economic and social factors and they exhibit a dynamic relationship amongst them. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)...
Article
This short note presents the research rankings of economists and economics departments at world-wide and Turkish scale using RePEc data base as of June 2011. Brief suggestions and conclusions are provided for the Turkish researchers and economics departments so that they could increase their research rankings.

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