Farah Yasmeen

University of Karachi · Department of Statistics

Objective Breast cancer prevalence in Pakistan is among the highest in Asian countries. Recent changes in the temporal trends of breast cancer are largely unknown and examination of these trends can provide a direction in national planning for future health programs. The aim of this study was to examine recent changes in breast cancer incidence in...

Objective: To project total fertility rates for urban and rural areas in Pakistan up to 2027 with 80% prediction intervals. Methods: The secondary-data study was conducted from March 2020 to August 2020 at Data Bank in the Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Pakistan, and comprised publicly available data of the Pakistan Demographic...

The modeling of fertility curves has attracted the demographers for many years. Fertility modeling is main concerned for studying the reproductivity. The modeling of fertility curves by theoretical distribution has been used to describe reproductive patterns of women in childbearing age. Various types of models have been proposed in literature to c...

In this paper, the machine learning algorithm artificial neural network (ANN) model is applied to the Global, Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere mean temperature anomalies. The combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature data are obtained from Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA. The data are available for Glob...

The modeling of fertility curves has attracted demographers for many years. Fertility modeling is main concerned with studying reproductivity and the modeling of fertility curves by theoretical distribution has been used to describe reproductive patterns of women in childbearing age. Various types of models have been proposed in the literature to c...

In Pakistan, one out of every nine women is at risk to be inflicted with breast cancer and the age-standardized incidence rates of breast cancer is one of the highest in Pakistan among other Asian countries. The aim of this study was to apply the Join-point Regression Analysis (JRA) technique for assessing time trends in breast cancer incidence in...

In this study, the sliced functional time series (SFTS) model is applied to the Global, Northern and Southern temperature anomalies. We obtained the combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature from Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA. The data are available for Global mean, Northern Hemisphere mean and Southern Hemisphe...

In hydrological and climatological time series described over a varied range of time scales, the persistence is generally recognized. Among them, an important climatological variable is the amount of rainfall. Clearly, the rainfall analysis has a substantial role in the successful planning, development and implementation of water resource managemen...

The Development of a statistical model for cancer incidence trend predictions can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources. Several studies in the past showed that there are racial/ethnic disparities exist between breast cancer incidence rates among black a...

Development of statistical model for cancer incidence trend predictions can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources. Several studies in the past showed that that there are racial/ethnic disparities exist between breast cancer incidence rates among black an...

Several studies showed that the breast cancer incidence rates are higher in high-income (developed) countries, due to the link of breast cancer with several risk factors and the presence of systematic screening policies. Some of the authors suggest that lower breast cancer incidence rates in low-income (developing) countries probably reflect intern...

In this paper, we intend to obtain coherent forecasts of age-specific fertility rates of Pakistan for the two broader regions, namely, Urban and Rural areas. This is an application of coherent functional models of Hyndman RJ, Booth H & Yasmeen F [1] on the disaggregation of fertility forecasts by regions. On the basis of previous studies [2, 3], we...

Electricity is one of the most important sources for economic and social development of a country. The growth in energy consumption is basically linked with the growth in economy. Energy demand increases due to different reasons, including higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, higher per capita consumption, the population growth and rapid dev...

Demographers often need to obtain individual forecasts of subgroups within a population and it is desirable for the disaggregated forecasts to be coherent with the overall forecast. " Coherent " forecasts are non-divergent forecasts of subgroups within a population. In this paper, we intend to obtain coherent forecasts of breast cancer mortality da...

The functional time series (FTS) models are used for analyzing, modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates. However, the application of these models in presence of two or more groups within similar populations needs some modification. In these cases, it is desirable for the disaggregated forecasts to be coherent with the overall forecast...

Fertility is the most important component among the components of population growth, as the fertility trends in any country determine factors related to social and economic condition of the region. Here, our main focus/research is on the indicator ASFR (age-specific fertility rates). Forecasting ASFR gives better picture for family planning schemes...

Abstract: Analysis, precise interpretation and forecasting of incidence and mortality rates are very important aspects in epidemiology and demography. The purpose of this study is to apply two different methodologies, namely the FTS (functional time series) models and APC (age-period-cohort) models on a single data set. We intend to compare the res...

We explore models for forecasting groups of functional time series data that exploit common features in the data. Our models involve fitting common (or partially common) functional principal component models and forecasting the coefficients using univariate time series methods. We illustrate our approach by forecasting age-specific mortality rates...

Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighbouring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the hig...

Now-a-days, different sectors of the economy are being significantly affected by the electricity variable. In this research, we analyzed the monthly electricity consumption in Pakistan for the period of January 1990 through December 2011, using linear and non linear modeling techniques. They include ARIMA, Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and ARCH/GARCH mod...

The Pakistan population is broadly distributed into two main regions, urban-rural areas. The purpose is to study the pattern of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) of Pakistan for these two regions: urban and rural separately. Modeling age-specific fertility rates instead of total fertility rates gives more accurate forecasts and also provides cle...

In performing two-level factorial and fractional factorial experiments, it is usually assumed that the design structure is completely randomized. However, in some multifactor experiments, it is not feasible to run all the factors in a completely random order and the other designs structures including randomized blocked, Latin square and split-plot...

Recent studies are showing that the breast cancer incidence rates increased rapidly among women in Pakistan and it became first malignancy among females of Pakistan. Although, the incidence rates may contain important evidence for understanding and control of the disease. However, in Pakistan, the breast cancer incidence data have never been av...

The purpose of this study is to model and forecast the trend and patterns of fertility rates in Pakistan. We use functional time series (FTS) models to obtain the forecast for the next twenty years. The secondary data of age-specific fertility rates from 1984 to 2005, obtained from Pakistan Demographic Surveys (PDS) are used. These data are availab...

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and interpretable functions of rates. The product-ratio functional forecasting...

Fuzzy Time series is being used for forecasting since last two decades for forecasting. Nature inspired computing techniques like other domains are now being used for optimization purpose in Fuzzy Time Series forecasting models to get improved results. In this paper we have presented a new algorithm for multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting ha...

The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening, with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models with damping. The d...

In order to learn the concept of statistical techniques one needs to run real experiments that generate reliable data. In practice, the data from some well-defined process or system is very costly and time consuming. It is difficult to run real experiments during the teaching period in the university. To overcome these difficulties, statisticians d...