Faaiqa Hartley

• MCOM: Econometrics
• Senior Researcher at University of Cape Town

While South Africa shares some characteristics with other middle-income countries, it has a unique economic history with distinctive characteristics. South Africa is an economic powerhouse with a significant role not only at the southern African regional and continental levels, but also as a member of BRICS. However, the country faces profound deve...

Mozambique has historically been prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location, but over the past 20 years the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones has increased, negatively affecting the entire economy, particularly agriculture. These impacts are expected to worsen, as climatic conditions become hotter and drier....

Since 2007, large and unexpected declines in generation costs for renewable energy systems, particularly solar but also wind, combined with policy measures designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions, have created a paradigm shift in energy systems. Variable renewable energy now dominates total investment in electricity power generation systems. Thi...

This introductory paper sets out the rationale for revisiting questions surrounding biofuel futures in Southern Africa and exploring the case for the establishment of a regional market. This contrasts with most research that has focused upon benefits and risks of production and consumption for individual countries. The analysis in this issue sugges...

Mozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is expected to increase over the next few years as 7 of its 15 member states have implemented or proposed th...

Potential biofuel demand in South Africa is estimated to increase to 1550 million litres by 2025 due to mandatory blending rates. Land and water constraints, however, limit the ability for domestic production. Zambia, due to its abundance in land, suitable climate, supportive set of bioenergy incentives and close geographical location to South Afri...

Purpose of Review Significant and mainly unpredicted advances in variable renewable energy technologies are resulting in structural shifts in energy systems globally causing an energy revolution. This review focuses on the implications for developing countries including the water-energy nexus. Recent Findings Developing countries typically feature...

We develop a sequential approach to link a bottom-up energy sector model to a detailed dynamic general equilibrium model of South Africa. The approach is designed to simultaneously address the shortcomings and maintain the attractive features of detailed energy sector and general equilibrium models. It also reflects common country-level energy plan...

We introduce a linked modeling framework based on existing computable general equilibrium and energy planning models for South Africa. The combined model provides for a more accurate assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of detailed energy build plans as it takes behavior changes into account. We apply the framework to alternative standard energy...

South Africa is considering introducing a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Following a discussion of the motivations for considering a carbon tax, we evaluate potential impacts using a dynamic economywide model linked to an energy sector model including a detailed evaluation of border carbon adjustments. Results indicate that a phased...

South Africa is considering introducing carbon taxes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We evaluate potential impacts using a dynamic economy-wide model linked to an energy sector model. Simulation results indicate that a phased-in carbon tax that reaches US$30 per ton of CO2 by 2022 achieves the ambitious national emissions reductions targets set...

This article assesses the predictive ability of asset prices relative to other variables in forecasting inflation and real GDP growth in South Africa. A total of 42 asset and non-asset predictor variables are considered. Forecasts of inflation and real GDP growth are computed using both individual predictor autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) mod...