Evren Ceritoglu

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey · Research and Monetary Policy

This paper analyzes the distribution of household portfolios in Turkey using a fresh data set, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey – Household Finance and Consumption Survey (CBRT-HFCS), which closes an important data gap by providing detailed data on households’ financial assets and liabilities. The empirical analysis concentrates on the mo...

This paper analyses the contribution of age and cohort effects on home-ownership and housing wealth in Turkey. I construct a pseudo-panel data set based on birth-year cohorts by using sixteen waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute Household Budget Surveys from 2003 to 2018. The empirical analysis reveals that young cohorts are less likely to ow...

The aim of this paper is to find out whether there is exuberance in regional house prices in Turkey. For this purpose, we analyze real hedonic house prices and price to rent ratios countrywide as well as for 26 geographic regions at the NUTS2 level from January 2010 to January 2019. We perform the right-tailed unit root testing procedures developed...

This article analyzes housing market developments in Turkey over the past two decades. In particular, we estimate the permanent income elasticity, price elasticity, and interest rate elasticity of housing demand. We use 14 consecutive waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Household Budget Surveys (HBS) from 2003 to 2016. We find tha...

This paper tests the empirical validity of the consumption risk-sharing hypothesis across urban and rural regions in Turkey. For this purpose, I analyze fourteen consecutive waves of the TURKSTAT Household Budget Surveys from 2003 to 2016 and prepare a pseudo-panel data set for birth-year cohorts. The empirical analysis shows that there is imperfec...

This paper analyzes the relationship between house prices and household consumption in Turkey. We utilize twelve consecutive waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Household Budget Surveys (HBS) from 2003 to 2014. We construct a pseudo-panel data set using birth-year cohorts following Deaton (1985). We find that house price changes h...

The aim of this paper is to examine and quantify the impact of demographic change on household savings, which is expected to take place in the following years in Turkey. Moreover, the effects of the increase in the share of people with college degree or more in adult population and the rise in labor force participation rates on household savings ar...

In this paper, we investigate the effects of age structure dynamics of population on housing demand in Turkey. The critical question is how housing demand moves in the environment of positive population growth with declining rate and aging population. We use TurkStat Household Budget Surveys to determine the link between household housing demand an...

We estimate average quality growth and upward inflation bias for a set of fifty-one goods in Turkey by using seven waves of the annual Household Budget Survey and TURKSTAT prices from 2003 to 2009. We employ the instrumental variables approach introduced by Bils and Klenow (2001). We find that average quality growth in Turkey is 3.93 percent. Of th...

This paper analyses the Household Budget Surveys prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute to reveal the empirical importance of precautionary saving in Turkey. The most difficult aspect of the empirical analysis is the approximation of labour income risk as a proxy variable for future labour income uncertainty. Individual disposable income is...

In this study, average quality growth and upward inflation bias are estimated for a set of 51 goods by using six waves of TURKSTAT Household Budget Surveys from 2003 to 2008 and consumer prices in Turkey. Using instrumental variables approach suggested by Bils and Klenow (2001), the annual average quality growth for these items over this period is...

The aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to contribute to the understanding of household consumption and saving behaviour under risk and uncertainty. The precautionary saving hypothesis proposes that households will postpone their consumption and increase their saving level to be protected against future labour income uncertainty. It is reasonable to interp...

The precautionary saving hypothesis proposes that purchase of private health insurance diminishes household saving, since health insurance coverage decreases the possibility of unexpected out-of-pocket health expenditures. The empirical analysis is realised using the TURKSTAT Household Budget Surveys between 2003 and 2010 for the Turkish economy fo...