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Evgeny Vinokurov

Evgeny Vinokurov
Eurasian Development Bank · EDB Research Department and EFSD Chief Economist Group

PhD

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162
Publications
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Introduction
Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD). Authored and co-authored ca. 160 publications. Most recent books are One Eurasia or Many? (2021), Introduction to the Eurasian Economic Union (2018) and Re-Evaluating Regional Organizations (2017). Research interests cover economic integration, global economic and financial governance, macroeconomics, and international organizations.

Publications

Publications (162)
Article
Full-text available
The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading partners. Macroeconomic projections are developed by the...
Article
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The report presents the findings of a survey of representatives of large and medium-sized companies from Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan engaged in foreign economic activities in the EAEU and the CIS region. The purpose of the survey was to measure awareness of Eurasian integration among the respondents, examine the...
Article
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The launch of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its connection to latitudinal transport corridors will enable the creation of a single Eurasian transport framework. Significantly shorter delivery time is the key advantage that the INSTC will have relative to the other transport routes. This report looks at potential INSTC...
Article
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The report is prepared by the key international industry experts and young scholars. It contains the results of technical research aimed at solving today’s energy challenges and helping to reduce the carbon footprint in Eurasia. The focus is on hydrogen energy and energy storage systems, including those applied to the water and energy complex of Ce...
Article
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The report continues the series of publications detailing the findings of a long-standing research project dedicated to monitoring of mutual direct investments of the CIS countries and Georgia. The analysis relies on a database maintained on the basis of diverse data obtained from publicly available sources. The database is generated “from the bott...
Article
Full-text available
The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading partners. Macroeconomic projections are developed by the...
Article
Full-text available
The EFSD Chief Economist Group continues the series of working papers on global financial safety net (GFSN) functioning. This working paper provides the analysis how the GFSN responded to pandemic on global level and on regional level (in the EFSD countries). The report provides an answer to the questions on the volumes of financial support as well...
Article
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How can private obligations affect countries’ sovereign debt positions? What kind of support may loss-making companies need from the government? Will it increase economic risks and impede budget and debt indicators? All these issues have remained on the agenda during the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies’ bailouts and bank recapitalizations led to mater...
Article
Russian firms are important political actors in the former Soviet Union, and we use data on their choices of locations for foreign investment to draw inferences about their strategies and degree of autonomy from the Russian state. We find evidence that a substantial share of Russian firms prefer risky investment climates, which we interpret as evid...
Research
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The report assesses the potential effects of integration of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and lists the most promising areas of cooperation between the current Union member countries and Uzbekistan. The authors have examined the key indicators of social and economic development of Uzbekistan and the main areas...
Research
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Доклад дает оценку потенциальных эффектов от интеграции Республики Узбекистан с Евразийским экономическим союзом (ЕАЭС), а также выявляет перспективные направления сотрудничества действующих стран – членов Союза с Узбекистаном. Авторы проанализировали основные индикаторы социально-экономического развития Узбекистана, торговое и инвестиционное сотр...
Article
In the global financial architecture, the functions of anti-crisis support and macroeconomic stabilization are performed by the institutions of the global financial safety net (GFSN). The volume of available financing within the framework of GFNS has grown 10 times over the past decade and reached the equivalent of 4% of world GDP. The literature’s...
Article
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The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Forecast with projections for the economic development of its member states for 2021 and the medium term. The Macroeconomic Forecast states that, at the beginning of this year, the global economy started to steadily recover. The Global PMI Composite Output Index remains above the 50-p...
Article
The institutions and instruments of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) represent the part of the global financial architecture that is responsible for providing an anti‐crisis and stabilization support to the countries in need. We argue that the standard understanding of the GFSN as a system consisting of four layers – national reserves, bilate...
Book
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The aim of the book is to critically review the processes of integration and region-building in Greater Eurasia. Integration is a broad term that covers any rise in economic and social interconnections, whether driven by top-down state policies (regionalism) or by the bottom-up activities of companies, individuals, and business networks (regionaliz...
Article
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The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a report titled Uzbekistan and the EAEU: Prospects and Potential Impact of Economic Integration. The report estimates the potential effects of Uzbekistan’s integration with the EAEU and outlines promising areas for cooperation between the current Union member states and Uzbekistan. The structural ch...
Article
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The report contains an analysis of the current situation, international cooperation, challenges, and investment activity in the water and energy complex of Central Asia 30 years after the five republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) gained their independence. The authors have also compiled a database of ongoing...
Article
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What is a “safe” and optimal debt level? How does rising debt affect economic growth? The COVID-19 pandemic has forced countries around the world to reconsider these issues facing the reality wherein the budgetary stimulus accompanied by government debt accumulation became principal instruments used to curtail shocks. The current EFSD Working Paper...
Article
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The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published its Macroeconomic Forecasts for 2021. The countries in the Bank’s region of operations have been hit by widescale social and economic shocks this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank forecasts its member states’ aggregated GDP to contract by 3.8% in 2020 after a 1.7% increase in the previous...
Article
The paper handles two Eurasian international financial institutions, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilisation and Development (EFSD), focusing on interaction with their international counterparts, including international financial organisations and multilateral development banks. We attempt to explain the reasons...
Article
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The COVID-19 outbreak has revealed the sensitivity of economies and their debt positions to a wide range of disruptions: not only financial shocks may hamper economic growth, but health, political and environmental emergencies may also bring economic suffering. In this context, experts estimated developing countries’ debt sustainability and their f...
Article
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Vinokurov E. (2020) Global Financial Architecture and the COVID Crisis. Expert Opinion. Valdai Club. After every major economic crisis, the global financial architecture changes markedly. The COVID-19 crisis will not be an exception. The current expert discussions are largely focused on a possible shift towards de-globalisation processes, the stre...
Article
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In the working paper, we attempted to expand the traditional scope of the Global Financial Safety Net (international reserves, swap arrangements, regional financing arrangements, and the IMF) with multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support. Between 2009 and 2019, Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan used a wide range o...
Article
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The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), established in 2015, includes five member states – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. Its most important element, the customs union, dates back to 2011. The starting point for discussing the EAEU’s institutional efforts to expand the network of free trade areas is the following. With its nomina...
Article
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As a cross-border phenomenon, the BRI is vulnerable to the COVID-19-induced crisis The rapid spread of COVID-19 has led to uncertainty and loss of confidence unseen since 2008. The market volatility has also risen extremely fast to a level unseen over the last decade. Even against this unfavorable environment, there are sectors that have taken a d...
Article
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Countries in Northern and Central Eurasia, including its largest economies, Russia and Kazakhstan, were among early believers in the value of the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the last years, they increasingly embraced various aspects of the BRI, most importantly additional investment and rising volumes of trans-Eurasian traffic. The latter, apart...
Article
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The EFSD published its new Working Paper WP/20/1 ‘Kyrgyz Republic Debt Sustainability and External Shocks’. The baseline scenario suggests that the dynamics of Kyrgyz Republic's external and public debt would remain sustainable. External debt, which includes both private external debt and public external debt, is expected to decline from 83.8% of...
Preprint
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The paper handles two Eurasian international financial institutions, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), focusing on the modalities of interaction with their international counterparts, including international financial organization and multilateral development banks. We attempt to exp...
Article
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The purpose of the present work is to eliminate gaps in understanding of the dynamics of the EFSD development and its role in the financial architecture of the region and the GFSN. To do this, we must first provide the global expert community with a detailed picture of the Fund’s activities, its role in the region, and the dynamics of its developme...
Chapter
Russia appreciated the potential positive implications of the Belt and Road Initiative early on. Over the last years, it increasingly embraced various aspects of the BRI, most importantly additional investment and rising volumes of trans-Eurasian transit. The latter, apart from being a lucrative business on its own, should eventually lead to better...
Article
The heterogeneity of the BRICS impedes rapid progress. One way to overcome this limitation would be to shift the focus from trade liberalization to other types of economic cooperation. This can be complemented by accepting China’s initiative to create a BRICS+ structure, which would augment the cooperation among the core five members by a wider cir...
Preprint
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This a preprint for an Emerging Market Forum book on Belt and Road. First, I provide an overview of the BRI corridors traversing Russia, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Then, I provide estimates of the container freight flows (since trans-Eurasian transit is primarily a ‘container story’). There will be three time dimensions to these estimate...
Preprint
Full-text available
The heterogeneity of the BRICS impedes rapid progress. One way to overcome this limitation would be to shift the focus from trade liberalization to other types of economic cooperation. This can be complemented by accepting China's initiative to create a BRICS+ structure, which would augment the cooperation among the core five members by a wider cir...
Chapter
In this chapter, we focus on the EAEU’s foreign economic relations. We start with the EAEU’s emerging network of free trade and economic agreements, most of them still in the making (Vietnam, Singapore, Israel, Iran, etc.). The current state of cooperation with both the European Union and China follows. For China, after reviewing the state of trade...
Chapter
This chapter presents a concise overview of the history of the post-Soviet integration that began in 1991. We start with the disintegration processes of the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s. We describe the mechanisms of the “civilized divorce” between the former republics of the Soviet Union. We then identify the newly independent states’ fir...
Chapter
Central to the book, this chapter describes different facets of the EAEU common markets, their progress, and various constraints. We do this to establish a balanced view of Eurasian integration’s relative successes and failures. First, we analyse the Customs Union (CU) by itself, with particular attention given to the dynamics of single customs tar...
Chapter
In this final chapter, we discuss the theoretical and ideological background of Eurasian integration. Here, we highlight the specific nature of Eurasian integration and develop the theoretical concept of holding-together integration that applies best in this case. A comparative analysis of the EAEU with other large regional integration organization...
Chapter
Here we focus in much detail on the EAEU’s principal document—the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which came into force in 2015. The chapter also presents a detailed analysis of EAEU institutions, in particular the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, Eurasian Economic Commission, Court of the EAEU, E...
Chapter
We start with an overview of EAEU member states’ economies: Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. We highlight a number of structural features (such as Russia’s dominance in the EAEU in terms of its GDP, population, and role as an exporter of raw materials) that represent challenges for the EAEU’s long-term development as a regional...
Research
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The report presents an analysis of the impact that international freight traffic barriers have on logistics, transit potential, and development of transport corridors traversing EAEU member states. Restrictions discussed in this report include infrastructural (transport and logistical infrastructure), border/customs-related, and administrative/lega...
Article
The establishment of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2010, succeeded by the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015, constituted an important discontinuity in the development of post-Soviet regionalism: while the preceding organisations remained cases of ‘ink-on-paper’ regional integration, in the case of the Customs Union the member...
Research
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This report presents the results of quantitative assessment of freight traffic growth prospects along the China–EAEU–EU axis. The report provides a description of general trends affecting development of freight transport subject to commodity structure and mode of transport. Special attention is paid to factors driving changes in freight traffic. Th...
Research
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The report “Eurasian Economic Integration – 2017” reflects the directions, events and decisions that determine the current vectors of integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union. The authors offer fresh data and analytical insights with respect to: macroeconomic development; changes in trade and investment capital flows; the labor market;...
Research
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This report is part of the large-scale project Challenges and Opportunities of Eurasian Economic Integration implemented in cooperation with the IIASA Institute (Vienna), which envisages a number of high-level roundtables as well as research articles and reports. The objective of the project is to discuss and analyse economic integration in Eurasia...
Research
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After the establishment of the Customs Union (CU) and the Single Economic Space (SES), Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia have repeatedly stated the need to eliminate exemptions, limitations, and barriers to mutual trade in goods and services. This report represents the first stage of a study on the economic impact of reduction within the SES and the e...
Research
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The Regional Integration Database is an applied research project implemented by Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) Centre for Integration Studies. The objectives associated with the establishment and advancement of the Eurasian Economic Union require that both positive and negative global experience in regional integration should be taken into accou...
Research
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The report provides the first comprehensive assessment of the effects of non-tariff barriers on mutual trade in the EEU and gives recommendations as to how to remove them. It is based on a poll of 530 Russian, Kazakh and Belarusian exporters. In the research non-tariff barriers are divided into two groups. The first group includes non-tariff barrie...
Book
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia, is a new but substantial regional organization. Significant achievements include a common external customs tariff, a customs union and a common labour market: a well-developed institutional environment has emerged to support and advance these pr...
Article
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One of the key advantages of economic cooperation at the Greater Eurasian scale is the opportunity it presents to significantly increase land transport capacity and the trans-Eurasian flows of goods. Raising efficiency of land transport corridors in Greater Eurasia will boost trade efficiency and create multiple opportunities for manufacturing and...
Article
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ASEAN regional financial integration evolves within four domains: the banking sector, liberalizing foreign direct investments, liberalizing capital flows, and ensuring regional financial stability. Progress so far has been limited. Regional integration as concerns the liberalization of capital markets and, in particular, the banking sector, proceed...
Article
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The authors turn to the large family of institutions that came into existence in post-Soviet Eurasia (and, in some ways, beyond it) over the last two decades. The researchers review their current state, agenda, real and perceived mandate, and their respective achievements and constraints. The main questions of interest are the following: do ‘Eurasi...
Article
In the light of the implications of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for Greater Eurasia and, in particular, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, this paper assesses the prospects of seven actual and potential trans-Eurasian overland transport corridors. Based on the analysis of trade flows, railway tariffs, existing restrictions and ind...
Article
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After achieving substantial progress in establishing a common customs territory and regulations, customs unions face potential disruptions due to a lack of monetary policy coordination. These disruptions might appear in the form of currency shocks and the ensuing trade conflicts. We approach this issue by looking at the case of the Eurasian Economi...
Book
This book takes a mixed-methods approach to completely re-evaluate the regional organizations landscape. Based on a systematic categorization of heterogeneous goals, it identifies several regional organizations in various parts of the world (Latin America, Africa, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and post-Soviet Eurasia) to illustrate the most typical...
Chapter
This chapter presents the Eurasian Development Bank System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration (SIEI). The SIEI was created to monitor the economic integration of countries and groups of countries in the post-Soviet space. The system is built around indicators of regional integration in trade, labour migration, electricity (electric power), agric...
Chapter
It is not uncommon for regional organizations to be characterized by more or less pronounced power asymmetries. Quite often, there is a single leading, or even hegemonic, nation in a regional organization. In other cases, regional organizations include a coalition of leading countries accompanied by a number of less powerful states. The chapter loo...
Chapter
The chapter investigates how the historical factors influence the path of development of regional organizations and their objectives. It identifies a number of factors relevant in this context. The first factor is member countries’ interconnections in existence before the regional organization was established. Unlike the previous literature, the ch...
Chapter
The chapter investigates how the economic factors influence the path of development of regional organizations and their objectives. In particular, it focuses on two variables. First, the chapter investigates the differences in the objectives of regional organizations depending on the level of economic development of their members and the distinctio...
Chapter
Although regional organizations frequently cease any activity, their legal dissolution appears to be a rather unusual case. The goal of the chapter is to explain why regional organizations prove to be so tenacious and resist attempts to dissolve them, even when they are inefficient and devoid of substance. The analysis looks at two cases, where the...
Chapter
The political regime of member countries is a major factor determining the evolution and the type of the regional organization. The main focus of this chapter is to study the distinction between autocratic and democratic countries. It suggests that autocracies and democracies have different preferences regarding the regional organization type. The...
Chapter
The chapter is based on qualitative in-depth analysis of several case studies of regional organizations, where instrumental economic cooperation seems to be an important objective pursued by the member countries. In particular, it focuses on the cases of Mercosur, South African Customs Union, and Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf....
Chapter
This chapter studies regional organizations serving as platforms for high-level communication between member states, often on topics unrelated to their official objectives. In particular, it investigates three cases of these ‘talking clubs’: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the Latin American Integration Association, and the Shanghai Cooperat...
Chapter
The chapter looks at the regional organizations, which declare the objective of economic cooperation, but are in fact driven by expressive goals – that is, used as rhetorical devices in the domestic politics or at the international arena. It addresses two cases: the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) and the Organization for...
Chapter
The chapter explores the variety of functions regional organizations can perform. It introduces the crucial distinction between instrumental and expressive goals and elaborates on a basic typology of regional organizations. In particular, the chapter identifies six types of regional organizations depending on the relative importance of instrumental...
Chapter
The chapter offers a large-N analysis of factors determining the type of the regional organization. For this purpose, it utilizes a unique dataset of 62 regional organizations, covering a broad variety of organizations of various types of the world. The chapter uses two distinct approaches to comparing these organizations. On the one hand, it assig...
Chapter
The chapter focuses on regional organizations that do not serve any expressive or instrumental goals, but instead are used by their bureaucrats as a source of rents or even survive because of the negligence and lack of attention of the political decision-makers. The main goal is to identify the preconditions for the survival of these organizations....
Chapter
This chapter investigates the regional organizations which, without officially declaring any change in their goals, have turned from economic to non-economic objectives and vice versa. First, it discusses the Economic Community of West African States, which in spite of the lack of success in its original broad economic agenda, turned out to become...
Article
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This paper assesses the current results of the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). On the one hand, the EAEU has not been an impeccable “success story”. The EAEU's progress has slowed after initial rapid progress. On the other hand, it has achieved much. The EAEU is best viewed not as an exception to general rules of regional econo...
Article
The Treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), in force in 2015, marked the transition to the deep regional economic integration, including the coordination of macroeconomic and monetary poli?ies. The paper provides quantitative analysis of the costs and benefits of the ultimate scenario, namely of the hypothetical monetary union. The analysis i...
Article
The paper appraises current progress in establishing the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Although the progress has slowed down after the initial rapid advancement, the Union is better viewed not as an exception from the general rules of regional economic integration but rather as one of the functioning customs unions with its...
Article
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This paper deals with a potential long-term cooperation agenda of the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on the movement of people. The paper provides a brief technical background on five various issues. It argues for the visa-free regime; advancing large-scale academic exchanges; introducing the mobility of trans-border pensions...
Article
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This research note contains some preliminary estimates in regard to the potential transportation capacity and investment needs of various Silk Road transportation routes that run across the Eurasian Economic Union’s countries.
Article
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Today even raising the question of an economic integration agreement between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union seems a non-starter. Recent economic sanctions have severely hurt economic cooperation between the two political entities. Yet the foundations of any new institution are frequently set out in times of crisis.
Article
This article investigates the effect of economic crises on the development of post-Soviet regional integration, focusing on Russia–Kazakhstan relations and particularly the case of the Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan customs union. While the literature often argues that crises are accompanied by growing protectionism, we observe a substantially more...
Article
The aim of this article is to review the tectonic changes in the structure of economic linkages in the Eurasian continent. Within the last two decades, the end of the autarky of China and the COMECON bloc led to a dramatic opening to the global economy and to cooperation within the Eurasian continent. This is particularly visible with regard to tra...
Article
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The study concerns the measurement and analysis of the long-term dynamics of integration processesin the post-Soviet space. It covers eleven CIS countries plus Georgia from 2009 to 2012 and it continues the 1999–2008 analysis that was carried out in 2009. The SIEI includes the analysis of two main aspects of regional economic integration, namely ma...
Article
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Age, education, income discrepancy, and unemployment level are the main factors that define the portrait of the Kyrgyz labor migrant. Remittances shape the present state of the Kyrgyz economy; the quality of human capital, and its future. Efficiently functioning social networks abroad play a significant role in a migrant's decision to work abroad,...
Article
The paper considers the evolution of the processes of the regional integration in the post-Soviet space and in the broader space of the Eurasian continent. It points out the main directions of the formation of the Eurasian continental integration from the point of view of the intergovernmental interaction, spontaneous economic ties and common infra...
Article
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This article summarizes and defends a pragmatic approach to Eurasian integration. It is based on the understanding that integration is not the goal, but rather a tool for finding solutions to the problems of the member states, most importantly the modernization of economy. Pragmatic Eurasianism is focused on the success of the bottom-up integration...
Article
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This article offers a systematic and pragmatic approach to Eurasian integration. It assumes that integration is not an objective, but an essential means to resolve the pressing problems of all countries involved, with economic modernization as the key challenge.
Chapter
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This article systematises and defends a pragmatic approach to Eurasian integration. The terms ‘Eurasia’ and ‘Eurasianism’ are very often used in Russia, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries. As a rule, they are used as a synonym for the post-Soviet space. In Russia they are also often used to emphasise an anti-Western ideology and Russia’s ‘exclusive...
Article
This paper focuses on post-Soviet regional integration as a special case where integration projects are established by countries that originally comprised a single political entity after its collapse. It shows that in this framework the existing economic ties between countries are likely to affect adversely the interest of functional bureaucracy to...
Chapter
As discussed above, ecological problems, economic growth and development in Eurasian countries create cross-border externalities, and these externalities in turn create greater demand for cross-border cooperation. Thus, ecological problems are not an outcome of Eurasian integration (except indirectly, as emerging cross-border links facilitate econo...
Chapter
Discussion of Eurasian economic integration becomes more comprehensible when placed in its historical context. Although Northern and Central Eurasia have been somewhat of a loophole in the structure of globalization in recent decades, this was clearly not the case in the past. Although a detailed discussion of this topic is outside the scope of thi...
Chapter
The aim of this book was to review the dramatic changes in the structure of economic linkages in the Eurasian continent. Until the 1990s, Eurasia was split into competing and isolated political blocs, which often had very limited connections to the world market (for example, the COMECON/Warsaw Pact and China and its allies). Now, the web of links b...