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Introduction
Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). Authored and co-authored ca. 180 publications. Research interests cover economic integration, global economic and financial governance, international organizations, macroforecasting, and infrastructure.
Publications
Publications (203)
MDBs contribute significantly to the international development agenda. Funding for member countries and regional connectivity projects depends largely on the ability to expand lending capacity of such MDBs. This paper covers the whole ‘MDB family’ of institutions, but highlights regional and sub-regional MDBs because of their specifics of raising s...
The G20 International Financial Architecture Working Group places great emphasis on improving the efficacy of MDBs’ operations to support economic development and to help achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A number of valuable recommendations have been put forward by the G20 Independent Review of MDBs’ Capital Adequacy Framework...
Drinking water accounts for merely 7% of total water consumption in Central Asia, but its supply plays a special priority role in sustainable development. Drinking water is a critical health factor. However, the poor technical condition of water supply and treatment facilities in all countries of Central Asia (depreciation: up to 80%) prevents thei...
The Eurasian Transport Network is a system of interconnected latitudinal and meridional international transport corridors and routes providing trade and economic links between Eurasian countries and international markets. The North-South and East-West corridors enable foreign trade and transit transport, contributing to unleashing the potential of...
The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading partners. Macroeconomic projections are developed by the...
The goal of this report is to examine the main trends in infrastructure development in the Eurasian region. The report analyses the state of infrastructure in key sectors of interest to multilateral development banks (MDBs), including the EDB (transport, logistics, energy, water, telecommunications, etc.). It focuses on strategic areas for future i...
This insightful Companion provides an in-depth, systematic analysis of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), an economic union of several post-Soviet Eurasian states.
Bringing together an international collective of established academic experts on the EAEU and Eurasian regionalism, the editors showcase a diverse range of perspectives and backgrounds...
Economic cooperation in Eurasia, building mutually beneficial horizontal ties between the EAEU and other integration associations and Eurasian countries, needs solutions that are pragmatic, flexible, and at the same time realisable. This report contains a “menu” of specific proposals which could be implemented in the Eurasian space to create an int...
External academic mobility and strengthening of international ties in the area of education are important long-term regional development and integration tools. At the same time, the current EAEU academic mobility metrics point to stagnation at best, or a sluggish latent crisis at worst. The future of the Eurasian integration can be secured by setti...
The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook, presenting a preliminary overview of economic developments in the Bank’s member states for 2023, along with key macroeconomic projections for 2024, as well as 2025 and 2026.
Irrigated lands in Central Asia contribute to 80% of crop production and play a pivotal role in ensuring food security in the region. In the face of significant water stress, Central Asia has nearly reached its limit for extensive expansion of irrigated agriculture. 80% of water resources are allocated to irrigation purposes. However, the efficienc...
This book builds on theory of authoritarian regionalism and is the first attempt to analyse the interaction of authoritarian regional organizations in Eurasia with their global and regional counterparts (NATO, EU, WTO, IMF etc.). It analyses three decades of the development of post-Soviet regional organizations prior to the tectonic geopolitical an...
The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2023–2025. This analysis summarises economic developments in the Bank’s member states in early 2023 and provides key macroeconomic projections for the region’s countries until the end of the year and for 2024–2025.
Cross-border infrastructure comprises facilities that are spatially divided by the border between two or more countries. Due to the ongoing intensification of regional co-operation and economic integration, cross-border infrastructure projects acquire special significance, particularly for landlocked developing countries. These projects require mas...
Climate change brings about devastating consequences for the entire globe and is irreversible, so the green economy focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Countries will only transition to the green economy smoothly if they use green and climate finance for projects generating positive environmental im...
Based on the balance approach, the report analyses the production, resource, and export potential of the agro-industrial complexes of the EAEU countries, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan for the period until 2035. The resource potential for extensive and intensive growth of production of key agri-food products is estimated for two scenarios, taking into...
The EFSD continues the series of working papers with an analysis of sovereign financing in the Eurasian region. The purpose of this Working Paper is to present SFD and its methodology, to provide a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the wide range of sovereign financing by IFIs and development agencies in 2008–2022 in 11 Eurasian countries.
Developing efficient transportation links is a straightforward means to advance sustainable economic growth. It is particularly so in the context of the Eurasian landmass that, due to its sheer size, it has always been chronically underserved by transportation both along the East–West and North–South axes.
This report continues the series of publications detailing the findings of a long-standing research project monitoring mutual direct investments of the CIS countries and Georgia. The analysis relies on a database maintained on the basis of diverse data obtained from publicly available sources. The database is generated “from the bottom up”, meaning...
The ongoing international reserve paradigm based on trust will experience a major transformation despite being convenient, flexible and low-cost. The underlying issue is a loss of trust. Due to the massive financial sanctions imposed on Russia and other states, traditional reserve currencies have lost their footing, compromising confidence in inter...
The goal of this report is to propose comprehensive solutions for the regulation of the water and energy complex of Central Asia. The report presents an assessment of the state of water resources in Central Asia in the context of climate change. It offers a detailed analysis of the evolution of various forms of regulation of the water and energy co...
The freezing of Russia’s international reserve assets, the world’s seventh largest, despite not being the first case of its kind, will have systemic impact on the way countries around the world treat their reserves. Financial sanctions have undermined confidence in traditional reserve currencies. A systemic and complete revision of the conceptual a...
The economic role and prospects of Central Asia are still not fully appreciated by the world. Over the last 20 years, the countries of the region have made significant progress in their development, and have far-reaching growth prospects. The region’s GDP has been increasing at an average rate of 6.2% per year in real terms, reaching $347 billion....
The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2023. The analysis summarises economic developments in the Bank’s member states in 2022 and provides key macroeconomic projections for the region’s countries for 2023 and 2024.
The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is the key element of the Eurasian Transport Network. It is linked to most latitudinal Eurasian transport corridors. The INSTC is now becoming more relevant due to new logistics; however, various infrastructural and non-physical (tariff and non-tariff) barriers hinder its development. Certain...
International financial institutions and development agencies have realized more than 2,900 technical assistance projects in the Eurasian region over the past 14 years. Technical assistance is in high demand by the countries due to the need for accelerated institutional and socioeconomic development. Projects in public administration, economic deve...
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for better global risk management, availability of resources and coordination among multilateral and bilateral donors. In this policy brief, the authors suggest enhancing the concept of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) to better address these issues. They put forward the concept of an enlarged GF...
The Russian economy will have to adjust its logistics to face the new reality. The operationalization of the multimodal International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is an important strategic part of it. This “pivot to the South” by Russia and other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries is of particular significance in light of the requi...
The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading partners. Macroeconomic projections are developed by the...
The report presents the findings of a survey of representatives of large and medium-sized companies from Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan engaged in foreign economic activities in the EAEU and the CIS region. The purpose of the survey was to measure awareness of Eurasian integration among the respondents, examine the...
The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) becomes increasingly important as some EAEU countries reorientate their foreign trade and develop “new logistics.” For this reason, the Caspian countries are seeking to boost investment in the corridor’s transport infrastructure. EDB experts estimate that more than 100 projects are being plan...
The launch of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its connection to latitudinal transport corridors will enable the creation of a single Eurasian transport framework. Significantly shorter delivery time is the key advantage that the INSTC will have relative to the other transport routes. This report looks at potential INSTC...
The report is prepared by the key international industry experts and young scholars. It contains the results of technical research aimed at solving today’s energy challenges and helping to reduce the carbon footprint in Eurasia. The focus is on hydrogen energy and energy storage systems, including those applied to the water and energy complex of Ce...
The report continues the series of publications detailing the findings of a long-standing research project dedicated to monitoring of mutual direct investments of the CIS countries and Georgia. The analysis relies on a database maintained on the basis of diverse data obtained from publicly available sources. The database is generated “from the bott...
The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading partners. Macroeconomic projections are developed by the...
The EFSD Chief Economist Group continues the series of working papers on global financial safety net (GFSN) functioning. This working paper provides the analysis how the GFSN responded to pandemic on global level and on regional level (in the EFSD countries). The report provides an answer to the questions on the volumes of financial support as well...
How can private obligations affect countries’ sovereign debt positions? What kind of support may loss-making companies need from the government? Will it increase economic risks and impede budget and debt indicators? All these issues have remained on the agenda during the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies’ bailouts and bank recapitalizations led to mater...
Russian firms are important political actors in the former Soviet Union, and we use data on their choices of locations for foreign investment to draw inferences about their strategies and degree of autonomy from the Russian state. We find evidence that a substantial share of Russian firms prefer risky investment climates, which we interpret as evid...
The report assesses the potential effects of integration of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and lists the most promising areas of cooperation between the current Union member countries and Uzbekistan. The authors have examined the key indicators of social and economic development of Uzbekistan and the main areas...
Доклад дает оценку потенциальных эффектов от интеграции Республики Узбекистан с Евразийским экономическим союзом (ЕАЭС), а также выявляет
перспективные направления сотрудничества действующих стран – членов Союза с Узбекистаном. Авторы проанализировали основные индикаторы социально-экономического развития Узбекистана, торговое и инвестиционное сотр...
In the global financial architecture, the functions of anti-crisis support and macroeconomic stabilization are performed by the institutions of the global financial safety net (GFSN). The volume of available financing within the framework of GFNS has grown 10 times over the past decade and reached the equivalent of 4% of world GDP. The literature’s...
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Forecast with projections for the economic development of its member states for 2021 and the medium term.
The Macroeconomic Forecast states that, at the beginning of this year, the global economy started to steadily recover. The Global PMI Composite Output Index remains above the 50-p...
The institutions and instruments of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) represent the part of the global financial architecture that is responsible for providing an anti‐crisis and stabilization support to the countries in need. We argue that the standard understanding of the GFSN as a system consisting of four layers – national reserves, bilate...
The aim of the book is to critically review the processes of integration and region-building in Greater Eurasia. Integration is a broad term that covers any rise in economic and social interconnections, whether driven by top-down state policies (regionalism) or by the bottom-up activities of companies, individuals, and business networks (regionaliz...
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a report titled Uzbekistan and the EAEU: Prospects and Potential Impact of Economic Integration.
The report estimates the potential effects of Uzbekistan’s integration with the EAEU and outlines promising areas for cooperation between the current Union member states and Uzbekistan.
The structural ch...
The report contains an analysis of the current situation, international cooperation, challenges, and investment activity in the water and energy complex of Central Asia 30 years after the five republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) gained their independence. The authors have also compiled a database of ongoing...
What is a “safe” and optimal debt level? How does rising debt affect economic growth? The COVID-19 pandemic has forced countries around the world to reconsider these issues facing the reality wherein the budgetary stimulus accompanied by government debt accumulation became principal instruments used to curtail shocks. The current EFSD Working Paper...
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published its Macroeconomic Forecasts for 2021.
The countries in the Bank’s region of operations have been hit by widescale social and economic shocks this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank forecasts its member states’ aggregated GDP to contract by 3.8% in 2020 after a 1.7% increase in the previous...
The paper handles two Eurasian international financial institutions, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilisation and Development (EFSD), focusing on interaction with their international counterparts, including international financial organisations and multilateral development banks. We attempt to explain the reasons...
The COVID-19 outbreak has revealed the sensitivity of economies and their debt positions to a wide range of disruptions: not only financial shocks may hamper economic growth, but health, political and environmental emergencies may also bring economic suffering.
In this context, experts estimated developing countries’ debt sustainability and their f...
Vinokurov E. (2020) Global Financial Architecture and the COVID Crisis. Expert Opinion. Valdai Club.
After every major economic crisis, the global financial architecture changes markedly. The COVID-19 crisis will not be an exception. The current expert discussions are largely focused on a possible shift towards de-globalisation processes, the stre...
In the working paper, we attempted to expand the traditional scope of the Global Financial Safety Net (international reserves, swap arrangements, regional financing arrangements, and the IMF) with multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support.
Between 2009 and 2019, Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan used a wide range o...
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), established in 2015, includes five member states – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. Its most important element, the customs union, dates back to 2011. The starting point for discussing the EAEU’s institutional efforts to expand the network of free trade areas is the following. With its nomina...
As a cross-border phenomenon, the BRI is vulnerable to the COVID-19-induced crisis
The rapid spread of COVID-19 has led to uncertainty and loss of confidence unseen since 2008. The market volatility has also risen extremely fast to a level unseen over the last decade. Even against this unfavorable environment, there are sectors that have taken a d...
Countries in Northern and Central Eurasia, including its largest economies, Russia and Kazakhstan, were among early believers in the value of the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the last years, they increasingly embraced various aspects of the BRI, most importantly additional investment and rising volumes of trans-Eurasian traffic. The latter, apart...
The EFSD published its new Working Paper WP/20/1 ‘Kyrgyz Republic Debt Sustainability and External Shocks’.
The baseline scenario suggests that the dynamics of Kyrgyz Republic's external and public debt would remain sustainable. External debt, which includes both private external debt and public external debt, is expected to decline from 83.8% of...
The paper handles two Eurasian international financial institutions, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), focusing on the modalities of interaction with their international counterparts, including international financial organization and multilateral development banks. We attempt to exp...
The purpose of the present work is to eliminate gaps in understanding of the dynamics of the EFSD development and its role in the financial architecture of the region and the GFSN. To do this, we must first provide the global expert community with a detailed picture of the Fund’s activities, its role in the region, and the dynamics of its developme...
Russia appreciated the potential positive implications of the Belt and Road Initiative early on. Over the last years, it increasingly embraced various aspects of the BRI, most importantly additional investment and rising volumes of trans-Eurasian transit. The latter, apart from being a lucrative business on its own, should eventually lead to better...
The heterogeneity of the BRICS impedes rapid progress. One way to overcome this limitation would be to shift the focus from trade liberalization to other types of economic cooperation. This can be complemented by accepting China’s initiative to create a BRICS+ structure, which would augment the cooperation among the core five members by a wider cir...
This a preprint for an Emerging Market Forum book on Belt and Road. First, I provide an overview of the BRI corridors traversing Russia, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Then, I provide estimates of the container freight flows (since trans-Eurasian transit is primarily a ‘container story’). There will be three time dimensions to these estimate...
The heterogeneity of the BRICS impedes rapid progress. One way to overcome this limitation would be to shift the focus from trade liberalization to other types of economic cooperation. This can be complemented by accepting China's initiative to create a BRICS+ structure, which would augment the cooperation among the core five members by a wider cir...
In this chapter, we focus on the EAEU’s foreign economic relations. We start with the EAEU’s emerging network of free trade and economic agreements, most of them still in the making (Vietnam, Singapore, Israel, Iran, etc.). The current state of cooperation with both the European Union and China follows. For China, after reviewing the state of trade...
This chapter presents a concise overview of the history of the post-Soviet integration that began in 1991. We start with the disintegration processes of the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s. We describe the mechanisms of the “civilized divorce” between the former republics of the Soviet Union. We then identify the newly independent states’ fir...
Central to the book, this chapter describes different facets of the EAEU common markets, their progress, and various constraints. We do this to establish a balanced view of Eurasian integration’s relative successes and failures. First, we analyse the Customs Union (CU) by itself, with particular attention given to the dynamics of single customs tar...
In this final chapter, we discuss the theoretical and ideological background of Eurasian integration. Here, we highlight the specific nature of Eurasian integration and develop the theoretical concept of holding-together integration that applies best in this case. A comparative analysis of the EAEU with other large regional integration organization...
Here we focus in much detail on the EAEU’s principal document—the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which came into force in 2015. The chapter also presents a detailed analysis of EAEU institutions, in particular the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, Eurasian Economic Commission, Court of the EAEU, E...
We start with an overview of EAEU member states’ economies: Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. We highlight a number of structural features (such as Russia’s dominance in the EAEU in terms of its GDP, population, and role as an exporter of raw materials) that represent challenges for the EAEU’s long-term development as a regional...
The report presents an analysis of the impact that international freight traffic barriers have on logistics, transit potential, and development of transport corridors traversing EAEU member states. Restrictions discussed in this report include infrastructural (transport and logistical infrastructure), border/customs-related, and administrative/lega...
The establishment of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2010, succeeded by the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015, constituted an important discontinuity in the development of post-Soviet regionalism: while the preceding organisations remained cases of ‘ink-on-paper’ regional integration, in the case of the Customs Union the member...
This report presents the results of quantitative assessment of freight traffic growth prospects along the China–EAEU–EU axis. The report provides a description of general trends affecting development of freight transport subject to commodity structure and mode of transport. Special attention is paid to factors driving changes in freight traffic. Th...
The report “Eurasian Economic Integration – 2017” reflects the directions, events and decisions that determine the current vectors of integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union. The authors offer fresh data and analytical insights with respect to: macroeconomic development; changes in trade and investment capital flows; the labor market;...
This report is part of the large-scale project Challenges and Opportunities of Eurasian Economic Integration implemented in cooperation with the IIASA Institute (Vienna), which envisages a number of high-level roundtables as well as research articles and reports. The objective of the project is to discuss and analyse economic integration in Eurasia...
After the establishment of the Customs Union (CU) and the Single Economic Space (SES), Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia have repeatedly stated the need to eliminate exemptions, limitations, and barriers to mutual trade in goods and services. This report represents the first stage of a study on the economic impact of reduction within the SES and the e...
The Regional Integration Database is an applied research project implemented by Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) Centre for Integration Studies. The objectives associated with the establishment and advancement of the Eurasian Economic Union require that both positive and negative global experience in regional integration should be taken into accou...
The report provides the first comprehensive assessment of the effects of non-tariff barriers on mutual trade in the EEU and gives recommendations as to how to remove them. It is based on a poll of 530 Russian, Kazakh and Belarusian exporters. In the research non-tariff barriers are divided into two groups. The first group includes non-tariff barrie...
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia, is a new but substantial regional organization. Significant achievements include a common external customs tariff, a customs union and a common labour market: a well-developed institutional environment has emerged to support and advance these pr...
One of the key advantages of economic cooperation at the Greater Eurasian scale is the opportunity it presents to significantly increase land transport capacity and the trans-Eurasian flows of goods. Raising efficiency of land transport corridors in Greater Eurasia will boost trade efficiency and create multiple opportunities for manufacturing and...
ASEAN regional financial integration evolves within four domains: the banking sector, liberalizing foreign direct investments, liberalizing capital flows, and ensuring regional financial stability. Progress so far has been limited. Regional integration as concerns the liberalization of capital markets and, in particular, the banking sector, proceed...
The authors turn to the large family of institutions that came into existence in post-Soviet Eurasia (and, in some ways, beyond it) over the last two decades. The researchers review their current state, agenda, real and perceived mandate, and their respective achievements and constraints. The main questions of interest are the following: do ‘Eurasi...
In the light of the implications of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for Greater Eurasia and, in particular, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, this paper assesses the prospects of seven actual and potential trans-Eurasian overland transport corridors. Based on the analysis of trade flows, railway tariffs, existing restrictions and ind...
After achieving substantial progress in establishing a common customs territory and regulations, customs unions face potential disruptions due to a lack of monetary policy coordination. These disruptions might appear in the form of currency shocks and the ensuing trade conflicts. We approach this issue by looking at the case of the Eurasian Economi...