Ette Etuk

Rivers State University · Department of Mathematics

The study examine the intervention model of daily Singapore Dollar and Nigeria Naira Exchange Rates for 2016, specifically, to ; ascertain the intervention points using the time plot of daily Singapore dollar and Nigeria/ naira exchange rates, determine the unit root test for pre-intervention series in the daily Singapore dollar and Nigeria/ naira...

Multivariate Analysis of some Gross Domestic Product variables and crime figures in Nigeria was investigated to determine the important economic variables and crime figure variables that have positive effect on Nigerian society. This study examined the performance of these variables using yearly Crime data betwixt 2012 and 2020 and quarterly Nigeri...

This study on Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) Modeling of Exchange Rate in Oil Driven Economies in Africa, modeled exchange rate, lending interest rate and inflation for six oil producing countries in Africa within 1980 to 2019. These countries are listed as; Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Gabon, Libya and Nigeria. This paper is aimed to bui...

The study of the relationship between exchange rate and its covariates in Oil Driven Economies in Africa is crucial as it provides important information on economic policy decisions. In this study, we seek to evaluate the short run and long run relationship between exchange rate and two selected covariates being lending interest rate and inflation...

This paper is an attempt to model intervention between daily Brazilian real (BRL) and Nigerian naira (NGN) exchange rates. A look at the time plot of the exchange rates series shows that there is an intervention believed to have been caused by the announced economic recession of the year 2020 in Nigeria induced by the advent of covid-19 pandemic. T...

This article is about an intervention model of exchange rates between the Nigerian naira and the dollar on account of a certain economic recession.

Russia and Ukraine are in a war, with the former invading the latter. This puts the latter under great stress, many have died in the process and many more have been displaced and many more have fled from Ukraine. This has resulted in intervention in many time series related to Ukraine. For example, the time series of the daily exchange rates of Ukr...

For more than a month now Russia has invaded Ukraine militarily. That in itself is an intervention. A lot of time series will show intervention because of this sudden and, perhaps, unexpected attack. A look at the time series of Ukranian Hryvnia (UAH)/ Nigerian Naira (NGN) from 1 January 2022 to 13 March 2022 shows the emergence of an intervention...

For more than a month now Russia has invaded Ukraine militarily. That in itself is an intervention. A lot of time series will show intervention because of this sudden and, perhaps, unexpected attack. A look at the time series of Ukranian Hryvnia (UAH)/ Nigerian Naira (NGN) from 1 January 2022 to 13 March 2022 shows the emergence of an intervention...

This research work focused on the exchange rates between a developed country (Canada) and a developing country (Nigeria) from 1 st May to 31 st October, 2017 using intervention analysis approach by Box and Tiao (1975). The work analyzed the data using Eviews 10 package. A look at the pre-intervention series also revealed an upward movement suggesti...

The Nigerian economy has consistently suffered from global price shocks and its politics. And this shocks at many occasion has not been friendly with the Nigeria economy, since her over dependent on oil as the major source of revenue. A time-series model for the Nigerian monthly crude oil production is developed to examine the impact of Declaratio...

This work is an attempt to fit an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention model to daily Brazilian real (BRL) / Nigerian naira (NGN) due to the 2016 Nigerian economic recession. A time plot of the exchange rates shows the time of intervention as 22 nd June 2016. The pre-intervention rates are non-seasonal at level but seasonal...

This study looked into the supremacy of GARCH modelling over ARIMA modelling of Nigerian export commodity price index series. Data was collected from the Central Bank database from January 2000 to December 2020 and was analyzed using EVIEWS statistical software. The time plot of Nigerian export commodity price index (figure 1) shows that the series...

This study compares the performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models in forecasting Crude Oil Price data as obtained from (CBN 2019) Statistical Bulletin. The forecasting of Crude Oil Price, plays an important role in decision making for the Nigeria government a...

An intervention model for Nigerian monthly automotive gas oil distribution based on Box-Jenkins techniques is proposed in this research work. The data spanning from 2009 to 2015 were used in this investigation. The intervention point is observed to be January 2013. Pre-intervention data are observed to be stationary and follow an ARMA(1,1) model. P...

It has been observed that between January 2011 to June 2014 the price of crude oil had a more or less horizontal trend coming mostly within the $100 to $110 per barrel bracket and fell sharply thereafter and reaches the $30 to $50 per barrel bracket in 2016. This fall is seen as responsible for the current economic depression bedevilling the Nigeri...

Researcher every so often model economic relationship using linear models. Even when non-linear models are used, they hardly consider the possibility of regimes, the transmission from one regime to another and also the duration of stay in a particular regime. These are not captured by linear models. To address this, we applied the Markov-Switching...

It has been argued in recent times that the quantity of crude oil export increases as the year increases as well as production of crude oil, yet Nigerian economy decreases as the year increases. Hence, there is need to evaluate or build a model in order to help policy makers forecast the quantity of crude oil export in Nigeria. The aim of this pape...

Aims: The aim of this study is to examine multivariate GARCH modeling of selected Nigerian economic data. Study Design: The study used monthly data of Nigerian crude oil prices (dollar Per Barrel), consumer price Index rural, maximum lending rate and prime lending rate. Methodology: This work covers time series data on crude oil prices, consumer pr...

Missing observations in an experimental design may lead to ambiguity in decision making thereby bringing an experiment to disrepute. Robustness, therefore, enables a process, not to break down in the presence of missing observations. This work constructed a modified central composite design (MCCD) from a four-variable central composite design (CCD)...

The work constructed a modified central composite design from a rotatable central composite design augmented with seven center points adapted from the work of Wu and Li (2002). The comparison of the robustness of the CCD and MCCD to missing observation was investigated at various design points of factorial, axial and center points’ when the model i...

Aims: The aim of this work is to develop suitable ARIMA models which can be sued to forecast daily confirmed/death cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. This is subject to developing the model, checking them for suitability and carrying out eight months forecast, and making recommendations for the Nigerian Health sector. Study Design: The study used daily...

In this study, we proposed and studied the alpha power transformed quasi Lindley distribution. The new model has three sub models, namely, Lindley, quasi Lindley and alpha power transformed Lindley distributions. The pdf, hazard rate function, quantile function, mo-ments, Rényi entropy, stochastic ordering and distributions of order statistics were...

In this work, multivariate time series "vector autoregressive model" was applied to analyze the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of five (5) sectors namely: Agriculture, Industries, Building/Construction, Wholesale/Retails and Services. The data was collected from the National Bureau of Statistics, range quarterly from 1985 to 2017, a total...

In this study, we proposed and studied the alpha power transformed quasi Lindley distribution. The new model has three sub models, namely, Lindley, quasi Lindley and alpha power transformed Lindley distributions. The pdf, hazard rate function, quantile function, moments, Renyi entropy, stochastic ordering and distributions of order statistics were...

The multivariate "Seasonal Vector Autoregressive Moving Average" was used to measure the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in five (5) sectors: Agriculture, Industries, Building/Construction, Wholesales/Retails, and Services. The data was gathered from the National Bureau of Statistics and spans 33 years, from 1985 to 2017. To evaluate th...

Aims: The aim of this study is to examine multivariate GARCH modeling of selected Nigerian economic data. Study Design: The study used monthly data of Nigerian crude oil prices (dollar Per Barrel), consumer price Index rural, maximum lending rate and prime lending rate. Methodology: This work covers time series data on crude oil prices, consumer pr...

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic which has claimed thousands of lives over the past 6 months and counting, has resulted in great panic by many worldwide, as the number of death cases is now monotonically growing by the day. This paper isaimed at developing a suitable Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which shal...

A nation’s GDP is an important index reflecting development in economy and incomes. This paper uses the annual data of Nigeria’s GDP from 1981 to 2019 as the research data. An Augmented Dick Fuller test was used to test for stationarity of the data and was seen to be stationary at the second differencing. ARIMA(1, 2, 1) was identified as an approp...

Time series modeling and prediction has fundamental importance to various practical domains. Thus a lot of active research works is going on in this subject in recent times. Many important models have been proposed in literature for improving the accuracy and efficiency of time series modeling and prediction. The aim of this paper is to present a c...

The management of water quality is a major environmental challenge. Monitoring different sources of pollutant load contribution to the water body is quite difficult, laborious and expensive process which sometimes leads to analytical error also. The modelling of water quality parameters is quite challenging because of its complexity, nonlinearity,...

Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) which is a key priority water quality parameter that must be tested in any produced water before it can be discharged, takes five days to complete its analyses, which may affect operations of the facility when decisions need to be taken, hence the on for models to predict its values using already established data fr...

The main objective of wastewater treatment is to purify the water by degradation of organic matter in water to an environmentally friendly status. To achieve this objective some effluent quality parameters such as chemical oxygen demand and biochemical oxygen demand should be measured continuously in order to meet up with the said objective and reg...

Background: The Central Bank of Nigeria has itemized Nigerian real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) into the following: crop production, livestock, forestry, fishing, crude petroleum and natural gas, solid minerals, manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, information and communication, utilities, accommodation and food services, finance and insu...

This work is about seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling of monthly rainfall of Rivers State of Nigeria from 1981 to 2016. The time plot shows seasonality of period 12 months as typical of rainfall data. Even though the Augmented Dickey Fuller test of unit root ceritifies the series as stationary the correlogram shows...

This study performed time series modeling of NSEI and USD/NGN Exchange rates. Monthly data spanning from January 2007 to December 2018 was used. Data was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The models employed were ARMA model, GARCH (1,1) model and Granger Causality test. Both series were stationary at first difference. T...

BACKGROUND The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) is a global pandemic and Nigeria is not left out in being affected. Though, the disease is just over three months since first case was identified in the country, we present a predictive model to forecast the number of cases expected to be seen in the country in the next 100 days. OBJECTIVE To im...

This study is an attempt to model daily confirmed cases of coronavirus in Nigeria. A time plot of the series shows an upward trend with some seasonality. It is tested for unit test and is shown to be non-stationary. Its difference shows evidence of stationarity. The correlogram of the difference shows significant spikes at the partial autocorrelati...

This work is about proposing an intervention model for the exchange rates of Malaysian Ringitt MYR and the Liberian Dollar LRD. The intervention point was observed to be November 8, 2019. A pre-intervention ARIMA model of order (0, 1, 7), ∇X + 0.3397 −7 = was fitted and forecasts were obtained for the post-intervention data on the basis of it. The...

The real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product of Nigeria is studied here by Principal Component Method. A realization of the series from the first quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019 is analyzed using minitab 17 software. Both the correlation matrix and the covariance matrix are used. Eigen analysis of both matrices suggest that the...

Road traffic accidents is trending one of the challenges that have drawn the attention of researchers, statisticians, road users, families, business men, economy and the general public. Some of these challenges arising from Road traffic crashes include; death of loved one, fractures, loss means of livelihood and other various degrees of injury, the...

The present study model determinant of broad money in Nigeria between 1995 to 2018 using auto regressive distributed lag (ALDL) Bound test techniques. In an attempt to achieve the desire results the study target were to establish a suitable ARDL model in modeling Broad money in Nigeria, to examine the long-run relationship between broad money with...

The study was a statistical modeling the residuals of linear regression of all share index on capitalizations of Nigerian stock exchange, while the study specific objectives include to : determine the trends in the All Share Index within the period under investigation, develop a linear regression model for all share index on capitalization, determi...

Daily Ethiopian Birr / Nigerian Naira exchange rates are the subject of this research work. It has been observed that in the realization between 20th March 2017and12th September 2017that there is a hike in the time plot of the amounts of the naira in a Birr as from 4th August 2017, and there is no return of the upward movement. This is an intervent...

In this paper, we introduced and studied the statistical properties of a new distribution called the Marshall-Olkin extended quasi Lindley distribution. Specifically, we derived the crude moment, moment generating function, quantile function, and distributions of order statisticsbased on the distribution. The maximum likelihood point estimation met...

In this paper, we introduced and studied the statistical properties of a new distribution called the Marshall-Olkin extended quasi Lindley distribution. Specifically, we derived the crude moment, moment generating function, quantile function, and distributions of order statistics based on the distribution. The maximum likelihood point estimation me...

Background: Transport plays a significant role in the activities of man. Increase usage of road transport raises the likelihood of the occurrence of road traffic accident (RTA). Road accidents are considered major causes of death in the world today and thus are major health challenges all over the world. Accidents on our roads are serious problems...

The study Fourier time series analysis of Nigeria gross domestic product from 2005 to 2015 of quarterly data is an important part of modern time series analysis. The study employed Fourier periodic time series analysis and adequately model gross domestic product over time. The detailed background of Nigeria gross domestic product to date is highlig...

A look at the time plot of the exchange rates of the Egyptian pound EGP and the Nigerian Naira NGN across the year 2017reveals an abrupt jump in the amount of the latter in one unit of the former on the 4th of August 2017 and thenceforth prompting an intervention modeling. This situation is due to the ongoing economic recession Nigeria has fallen i...

ABSTRACT: Time series plot of a realization of daily exchange rates of South African Rand and Nigerian Naira from April 2017 to December, 2017shows the occurrence of an intervention on 4th August, 2017. This research work has an aim of proposing an intervention model to explain the impact of this intervention believed to be due to the economic r...

A realization of the daily Gambian Dalasi (GMD) / Nigerian Naira (NGN) exchange rates from 30th May 2017 to 25th November 2017 is the subject of this research work. It has been noticed that there has been a sharp rise in the rate of the amount of naira into the dalasi on 4th August 2017, and there has not been decline ever since necessitating treat...

Time series plot of a realization of daily exchange rates of Thailand Thai-Bath/Nigerian Naira from May 2017 to November, 2017 shows the occurrence of an intervention on 4 th August, 2017. It is believed that this intervention is the current Nigerian economic recession which is bedeviling the country. This paper is aimed at proposing an interventio...

Every country has it policy, the economic variable stated in this study is fundamental in the policy of Nigeria. The study intervention model of gross domestic product in Nigeria utilizes the quarterly data from 1981 to 2015, sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical bulletin. The intervention methods adopted in this study is quasi-experime...

The study multivariate transfer function modelling of major economic indicators in Nigeria from the period of 1981 to 2015 stands out to analyse the micro time series variables of quarterly data via the multivariate transfer function. The data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria for gross domestic product, currency in circulation, money supply...

The study multivariate transfer function modelling of major economic indicators in Nigeria from the period of 1981 to 2015 stands out to analyse the micro time series variables of quarterly data via the multivariate transfer function. The data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria for gross domestic product, currency in circulation, money supply...

Daily Moroccan Dirham (MAD) / Nigerian Naira (NGN) exchange rates, from 12th March 2017 to 4th September 2017, show an abrupt jump on 4th August, 2017. This work is an attempt to model the series UDI an ARIMA intervention model. The preintervention rates are adjudged non stationary by the Augments Dickey Fuller test necessitating differencing. The...

This research work is concerned with the modelling of daily exchange rates of Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Nigerian Naira (NGN). The data started from 18th May 2016 to 16th November 2016. The time plot shows an abrupt rise on 21st June 2016 in the quantity of the Naira to the Franc. This is the intervention point. It is believed that this is due to th...

Research involving time series analysis of Nigeria's Commodity Terms of Trade (NCTT) a monthly set of data from January 2000-December 2012, excerpted from Central Bank of Nigeria and statistical bulletin editions of 2000-2012 with base period January 2007 is done. It is observes that it is stationary. From the correlogram entertained models autoreg...

Time series plot of a realization of daily exchange rates of Indian Rupee and Nigerian Naira from 18th March, 2017 to 10th September, 2017 shows the occurrence of an intervention on 4th August, 2017. This research work has an aim of proposing an intervention model to explain the impact of this intervention believed to be due to the economic recessi...

There is definitely a relationship between climate and economy. Even though it is called the giant of Africa, Nigeria is still a developing country in the West Coast of Africa and Costa Rica is in North America and is adjudged to have gone beyond the basics of a developing country but has not quite graduated into a developed country. This work is a...

The Nigerian Maximum Lending Rate (NMLR) has been increasing continually for some decades now. If this remains unchecked investors would find it difficult to borrow which consequently lead to low investment, low productivity and increase in the cost of living. The study is aimed at modelling NMLR and using the model to make 12-month forecast. The m...

This study is an attempt to model Nigerian Food Consumer Price Indices (NFCPZI) data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website starting from January 2003 to November 2014. The data variables for the study were examined using basic time series concept such as time plot and stationarity test. It was observed that there exists on the tr...

The purpose of this research is to study the effect of outliers on the linear regression model describing the relationship between mother's body mass index BMI and infant weight. The weight and height of 240 mothers were collected along with the weight of their infant. A linear model was developed using simple linear regression. The model showed th...

This research is concerned with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling of monthly crude oil exports of Nigeria. The realization covered is from January 2006 to November 2016. The time plot reveals an initial generally negative trend up to mid-2009, and then a positive trend up to mid-2010 and then a negative trend up to 2016. An...

Money is a driving tool in any economy of a nation. As such the analysis and forecasting of Broad Money is of utmost importance to policy makers of any economy. The analysis shows the comparison of the performance of Nigerian Broad Money for GARCH and SARIMA models. In financial time series, the non-constant volatility is always high and GARCH mode...

The need for proper understanding of the trend of the Nigeria's external reserves can not be overemphasized, as it would help the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Federal Government of Nigeria to make policies that would grow her economy. In view of this, they paper attempts to identify and build a suitable and reliable Box-Jenkins model for m...

Since 2016, Nigeria has been in economic recession. Coincidentally, its inflation rates have been rising too with time. The goal of government has been to maintain the inflation in a single digit range. From 2013 up to January 2016, this goal has been achieved according to the records of the Central Bank of Nigeria after which it has swung back to...

Monthly distribution of household kerosene (HHK) in Nigeria from January 2009 to December 2015 experienced a sudden jump as from January 2013. It is believed that this increase was caused by the deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry of Nigeria in January 2012. This is an intervention case with January 2013 as the point of...

A look at the time plot of daily amounts of British pound (GBP) per Euro (EUR) from 17 th as the point of intervention. It is noteworthy that on the previous day 23 rd June 2016, the nation of Great Britain voted to opt out of European Union in what is known as Brexit. It is speculated here that this observed relative depreciation of the GBP is cau...

Variations in approved cost of projects are common and could be triggered by a fluctuation in interest rates and variation project duration. The paper aimed to explain the effect of time overrun (TO) and inflation rate on project completion cost (PCO). Variations in costs and durations of projects were calculated for 250 government and private buil...

An inspection of the time-plot of monthly Prime Motor Spirit (PMS) distribution in Nigeria from 2009 to 2015 reveals an abrupt jump in January 2013 with the series continuing at that level till 2015. Clearly the trend of the series was interrupted in January 2013 and it is believed that this perturbation was due to the deregulation of the downstrea...

This work is about an intervention model for monthly distribution of petroleum products in Nigeria. A look at the time plot of the distribution from 2009 to 2015 reveals an abrupt jump in the distribution in January 2013 which continued to 2015. The intervention is believed to be the deregulation of the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil industr...

This work concerns ittself with the interrupted time series or intervention modelling of monthly Bureau de Change (BDC) US Dollar-Nigerian Naira exchange rates. The realization of the time series covers the period from January 2004 to February 2017. This work is necessitated by an observation of an abrupt astronomical rise in the amount of Naira pe...

This research is about an intervention on daily exchange rates of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) and its Ugandan counterpart, the Shilling (UGX) observed on 22 nd June 2016. The realization of this time series studied spans from 19 th May 2016 to 17 th November 2016. There is an abrupt jump in the amount of Naira exchanged for a shilling from 0.0509 to 0...

Time-plot of monthly Central African Franc (CFAFr of XAF) and Nigerian Naira (NGN) exchange rates from January 2004 to January 2017 shows a slight positive trend up to may 2016 after which there is an abrupt astronomical rise which calls for intervention. The intervention point is therefore June 2016 around which time the Nigerian economy sank into...

A look at the time-plot of daily exchange rates of West African Franc (XOF) and the Nigerian Naira (NGN) from 19 th May 2016 to 13 th November 2016 reveals a sharp rise in the amount of Naira from 0.35 to 0.49 per XOF from 21 st to 22 nd June 2016. From that point onward the naira keeps reducing relatively. This is an intervention case. This means...