Ernesto F. L. Amaral

• PhD Sociology/Demography
• Professor (Assistant) at Texas A&M University

A importância da estimação de taxas específicas de migração por idade e sexo pode ser comparada àquela das Taxas Específicas de Fecundidade e de Mortalidade. O objetivo do capítulo é de ilustrar como essas taxas são estimadas para migração através de diferentes modelos, assim como discutir sua utilidade para analisar o nível e padrão da migração. C...

Brazil experienced population ageing and improvement in educational attainment between 1980–2010. Proportion of workers in the formal economic sector increased between 2000–2010. Earnings decreased from 1980 to 1991 and increased in 2000. However, earnings in the formal economic sector decreased again in 2010. We estimate associations of individual...

This study aims to estimate associations of demographic and educational changes with earning of female and male workers in Brazil. Previous studies considered earnings of male workers, but they did not include earnings of female workers. The 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses can be utilized for this analysis. Prelimina...

We project the population of United States veterans between 2014 and 2024 using a cohort component population projection method that provides estimates by age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era and geographic location. We also analyze distance of the projected veteran population to medical and health centers. Our research strategy integrates several...

Este trabalho analisa as perspectivas de gestão migratória no Brasil à luz do paradoxo da grandeza. Na introdução são mencionados resumidamente os fatos migratórios brasileiros. Em seguida são analisadas algumas tendências e mudanças no cenário internacional de migração. Em terceiro lugar, o conceito de gestão migratória é discutido no contexto bra...

This study aims to investigate factors associated with female sterilization in Brazil. The analysis is innovative because it adds the time of exposure to the risk of sterilization into survival models. The models control for postpartum duration, age at delivery, parity at delivery, type of delivery, place of delivery, region of residence at the tim...

Title in Spanish: Evaluación de la ENSAR 2003Resumen: El principal objetivo de este reporte es evaluar la exactitud y precisión de las tasas de fecundidad que pueden ser estimadas con base en la Encuesta Nacional de Salud Reproductiva 2003 (ENSAR 2003). Los organizadores de la ENSAR 2003 nos solicitaron realizar un análisis similar al elaborado por...

O objetivo deste estudo é de projetar o rendimento médio da população masculina brasileira no longo prazo, levando em consideração o atual processo de envelhecimento e o aumento da escolaridade no país. Utilizando dados censitários, pesquisas por amostra de domicílios e projeções populacionais e educacionais, estimativas até 2050 indicam que envelh...

O Estado de Minas Gerais é uma das regiões mais heterogêneas do país. Coexistem no Estado regiões dinâmicas, modernas e com indicadores sócio-econômicos de alto nível e localidades menos desenvolvidas, estagnadas que oferecem uma condição de vida mais precária para a sua população. De um lado, tem-se a região Centro-Sul e o Triângulo Mineiro, áreas...

Title in Portuguese: Seguro-desemprego e formalidade no mercado de trabalho brasileiroAbstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment benefits and formal employment in the Brazilian labor market. The central hypothesis is that these policies have a negative impact on the incidence of formal employment, after receiving the benefi...

This study evaluates whether 853 municipalities of Minas Gerais have developed one specific strategy of electronic government. We searched for municipalities that have websites for the executive branch, relating this information to a number of secondary data. These data include variables on the Municipal Human Development Index (HDI-M), municipal b...

Title in Portuguese: Influências de transição da estrutura de idade-educação e migração interna no mercado de trabalho no BrasilAbstract: This study develops a methodology that incorporates internal migration dynamics into models that estimate the impact of demographic and education transitions on the age-education earnings profiles of Brazilian wo...

This paper focuses on the geography of internal migration to and settlement within the metropolitan area of São Paulo. Specifically, the research objectives are to: (1) document the major flows of internal migration into the São Paulo metropolitan area; (2) map both short- and long-term migrant patterns of settlement within the São Paulo metropolit...

Title in Portuguese: Análise do perfil dos alunos ingressantes na UFMG pela iniciativa do bônus sociorracialAbstract: This article aims to verify whether the profile of students at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) was modified after the implementation of the socio-racial bonus policy. Between 2009 and 2012, university candidates who st...

The objective of this study is to estimate the long term mean earnings of the male Brazilian population, taking into account the aging process of the population and the increase in educational attainment. Using census data, household sample surveys, as well as population and education projections, estimates indicate that an aging population and an...

Title in Portuguese: Deliberação online em consultas públicas? O caso da assembleia legislativa de Minas GeraisAbstract: This paper utilizes deliberative democratic theory to analyze an online public consultation forum about political reform implemented by Minas Gerais State Legislature (ALMG), Brazil. Six topics guided the discussion of the 752 po...

This paper analyzes the impact of the educational conditions of Brazil’s Bolsa Família Program on the school enrollment, age-grade discrepancy, and labor of children benefiting from the program. The main hypotheses of this paper is that a child who lives in a household that receives the benefit has higher chances of being in school, lower chances t...

The main concern of this study is the impact that an increase in female participation within the labor force has on the earnings of males in Brazil. Previous research considered these transitions for male workers, but did not include female workers when estimating various effects on earnings. The 1970, 1980, 1991, and 2000 Brazilian Demographic Cen...

Este livro busca apresentar os resultados de trabalhos ligados à aplicação de diferentes técnicas quantitativas na avaliação de políticas públicas. O intuito é que estas análises possam ser utilizadas didaticamente em cursos de graduação e pós-graduação no Brasil que tenham como objetivo apresentar exemplos de análises empíricas a alunos de cursos...

Title in Portuguese: Avaliação de impacto do bônus sociorracial da UFMG no desempenho acadêmico dos estudantesAbstract: The objective of this article is to assess whether academic performance at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - UFMG) varies depending on whether students received socioracial bonuses on t...

Background: High cesarean section rates in Brazilian public hospitals and higher rates in private hospitals are well established. Less is known about the relationship between payment source and cesarean section rates within public and private hospitals. Methods: We analyzed the 1998, 2003, and 2008 rounds of a nationally representative household su...

This paper deals with the impact of internal migration flows on the earnings of male workers. The availability of jobs and income levels in sending and receiving areas also influence internal population flows. Thus, migration is an endogenous variable that cannot be simply introduced as an exogenous variable when estimating labour outcomes. A metho...

Title in Portuguese: A política de segurança pública no Brasil: uma análise dos gastos estaduais (1999-2010)Abstract: This article analyzes the public spending on public safety policy in Brazil in the period of 1999-2010, noting particularly its relations with the ideological perspectives of the parties elected to the Executive (state governments)....

Title in Spanish: Programa Bolsa Familia y frecuencia escolar: Un análisis con el censo demográfico de Brasil de 2010Abstract: The Bolsa Família Program goal is to promote social development and poverty reduction, through the direct transfer of conditional cash, in association with other social programs. This study aims to analyze whether Bolsa Fam...

Title in Portuguese: Caracterização dos níveis de fecundidade no Brasil, 1970-2010Abstract: We analyze the 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses, in order to investigate the associated factors with a woman having had a live birth during the year prior to each census. We estimated logistic regression models for women aged 1...

Protestantism has expanded rapidly in Brazil in recent decades. The question we tackle in this paper is whether Protestantism has had a positive influence on male earnings in this setting, either through its influence on health and productivity, by way of social networks or employer favor and reduced discrimination, or through other mechanisms. We...

Title in Portuguese: Desempenho acadêmico dos estudantes da UFMG: Uma análise da política de bônus sociorracialAbstract: This paper analyzes the academic performance of students of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazil, in order to observe differences in academic performance between students who received and who did not receive the...

Title in Portuguese: Racionalidade online: provimento de razões em discussões virtuaisAbstract: The aim of this article is to discuss the idea of rationality in online debates. Taking a deliberative approach, this article analyzes 2,375 comments about LGBT rights across four different platforms: Facebook, Youtube, News Portals, and Votenaweb (which...

Title in Portuguese: Diferencial educacional entre beneficiários e não beneficiários do Programa Bolsa FamíliaAbstract: Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) was created in 2003 to reduce inequality and extreme poverty. It was conceived as a conditioned income transfer system: in exchange for a monthly amount, families comply with a series of conditions, in...

This paper estimates the association of informality, demographic, and educational changes with earnings of male workers in Brazil. Our analysis takes into account informality, demographic, educational, and economic regional variations over time, using Demographic Censuses microdata. Results suggest that informality, demographic, and educational tra...

Title in Spanish: Políticas de población, programas gubernamentales y fecundidad: Una comparación entre el Brasil y MéxicoAbstract: The Government of Mexico implemented family planning programmes beginning in the 1970s, unlike the Brazilian Government, which has implemented no population policies. This article estimates the impact of those policies...

The impacts of shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population have been studied in relation to the effect of the baby boom generation on the earnings of different cohorts in the U.S. However, this topic has received little attention in the context of the countries of Asia and Latin America, which are now experiencing substantial shift...

This paper estimates the association of demographic and educational changes with earnings and returns to schooling of male workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational, and economic variations within each country over time, using Demographic Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results suggest that de...

RESUMO O Programa Bolsa Família - PBF - foi criado em 2003 com o intuito de reduzir a desigualdade e a extrema pobreza. Para tal, foi concebido como um sistema de transferência condicionada de renda: em troca de um valor mensal, a família se compromete a cumprir uma série de condicionalidades, entre elas, manter a criança frequentando regularmente...

The aim of this article is to discuss the idea of rationality in online debates. Taking a deliberative approach, this article analyzes 2,375 comments about LGBT rights across four different platforms: Facebook, Youtube, News Portals, and Votenaweb (which was specifically designed as a platform for discussions about bills proposed in the Brazilian N...

The Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act of 2014 addressed the need for access to timely, high-quality health care for veterans. Section 201 of the legislation called for an independent assessment of various aspects of veterans' health care. The RAND Corporation was tasked with an assessment of the current and projected demographics and...

This paper deals with the impact of internal migration flows on the earnings of male workers. The availability of jobs and income levels in sending and receiving areas also influences internal population flows. Thus, migration is an endogenous variable that cannot be simply introduced as an exogenous variable when estimating labour outcomes. A meth...

This paper estimates the association of informality, demographic, and educational changes with earnings of male workers in Brazil. Our analysis takes into account informality, demographic, educational, and economic regional variations over time, using Demographic Censuses microdata. Results suggest that informality, demographic, and educational tra...

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1165z1.html

The Bolsa Familia Program goal is to promote social development and poverty reduction, through the direct transfer of conditional cash, in association with other social programs. This study aims to analyze whether Bolsa Familia had an association with children’s school attendance, which is one of the educational conditions of the program. Our main...

This paper estimates the association of demographic and educational changes with earnings and returns to schooling of male workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational, and economic variations within each country over time, using Demographic Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results suggest that de...

We analyze the 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses, in order to investigate the associated factors with a woman having had a live birth during the year prior to each census. We estimated logistic regression models for women aged 10–49 years. As independent variables, we selected region of residence, rural/urban location,...

Este trabalho faz uma análise do desempenho acadêmico de estudantes da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) com o objetivo principal de verificar se há diferenças significativas entre estudantes que receberam e não receberam o bônus sociorracial no vestibular da instituição. Os resultados sugerem que o desempenho escolar entre bonistas e não...

Este artigo analisa os gastos estaduais em segurança pública no período de 1999 a 2010, observando principalmente suas relações com as perspectivas ideológicas dos partidos eleitos para o Poder Executivo (governador). Testou-se, sobretudo, a hipótese de que o gasto com a política de segurança pública seria maior em estados governados por partidos d...

This study analyzes the profile of female sterilization in Brazil by age, parity, type of delivery, place of delivery, color/race, region of residence, years of schooling, marital status, and number of unions. The descriptive analysis is based on the 2006 Brazilian National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children (PNDS), which has inf...

Este trabalho analisa a relação entre o ensino profissionalizante e o aproveitamento do primeiro dividendo demográfico em Minas Gerais. A hipótese é que aqueles que cursaram o ensino profissionalizante têm mais chances de empregar-se e maiores rendimentos salariais. Desta forma, a capacitação profissional seria um bom investimento para um maior des...

This study aims to investigate the determinants of female sterilization in Brazil. The analysis is innovative because it adds the time of exposure to the risk of sterilization into survival models. The models control for postpartum duration, age at delivery, parity at delivery, place of delivery, region of residence at the time of interview, color/...

This paper estimates the impact of demographic and educational changes on the earnings and returns to schooling of workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational and economic variations within each country over time, using Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results suggest that demographic and educati...

We analyze the 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses, in order to investigate the associated factors with a woman having had a live birth during the year prior to each census. We estimated logistic regression models for women aged 10–49 years. As independent variables, we selected region of residence, rural/urban location,...

We analyze the 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses, in order to investigate the associated factors with a woman having had a live birth during the year prior to each census. We estimated logistic regression models for women aged 10–49 years. As independent variables, we selected region of residence, rural/urban location,...

The Bolsa Família Program goal is to promote social development and poverty reduction, through the direct transfer of conditional cash, in association with other social programs. This study aims to analyze whether Bolsa Família had an association with children's school attendance, which is one of the educational conditions of the program. Our main...

Protestantism has expanded rapidly in Brazil in recent decades. The question we tackle in this paper is whether Protestantism has had a positive influence on male earnings in this setting, either through its influence on health and productivity, by way of social networks or employer favor and reduced discrimination, or through other mechanisms. We...

XbêåÉëíç=cêáÉÇêáÅÜ=ÇÉ=iáã~=^ã~ê~ä O X= ^ä~å=s∞íçê=`çÉäÜç=kÉîÉë P = = RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar se o desempenho acadêmico na Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) é diferenciado entre estudantes que receberam e que não receberam o bônus sociorracial no vestibular da instituição. O estudo analisa o impacto de diferentes categoria...

Protestantism has expanded rapidly in Brazil in recent decades. The question we tackle in this paper is whether Protestantism has had a positive influence on male earnings in this setting, either through its influence on health and productivity, by way of social networks or employer favor and reduced discrimination, or through other mechanisms. We...

This paper analyzes the impact of the educational conditions of Brazil's Bolsa Família Program on the school enrollment, age-grade discrepancy, and labor of children benefiting from the program. The main hypotheses of this paper is that a child who lives in a household that receives the benefit has higher chances of being in school, lower chances t...

High cesarean section rates in Brazilian public hospitals and higher rates in private hospitals are well established. Less is known about the relationship between payment source and cesarean section rates within public and private hospitals. We analyzed the 1998, 2003, and 2008 rounds of a nationally representative household survey (PNAD), which in...

This paper utilizes deliberative democratic theory to analyze an online public consultation forum about political reform implemented by Minas Gerais State Legislature (ALMG), Brazil. Six topics guided the discussion of the 752 posts from this forum: (1) inclusiveness; (2) provisions of reasons; (3) reciprocity; (4) mutual respect; (5) orientation a...

The main concern of this study is the impact that an increase in female participation within the labor force has on the earnings of males in Brazil. Previous research considered these transitions for male workers, but did not include female workers when estimating various effects on earnings. The 1970, 1980, 1991, and 2000 Brazilian Demographic Cen...

This article analyzes the microfoundations of support for governors in Brazil based on a decision model in which deputies attempt to reduce their electoral risks. This model considers the effects of the individual backgrounds of legislators, party strength, and the dynamics of political competition in states. We used ordinary least square regressio...

The authors analyze the relationship between unemployment benefits and formal employment in the Brazilian labor market. The central hypothesis is that the receipt of such benefits has a negative impact on levels of formal employment, after benefits have been received. The data were extracted from the Brazilian Household Surveys between 1999 and 200...

Brazil is characterized by racial and socioeconomic segregation. The objective of the research presented here is to analyze socioeconomic and racial segregation in three metropolitan areas (Recife, Belo Horizonte and Porto Alegre). Microdata from the 2000 Brazilian Census was used for this analysis, as well as maps produced for the selected areas b...

The impacts of shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population have been studied in relation to the effect of the baby boom generation on the earnings of different cohorts in the U.S. However, this topic has received little attention in the context of the countries of Asia and Latin America, which are now experiencing substantial shift...

Internal migration has been decisive in the process of rapid urbanization that has occurred throughout Brazil in recent decades. Between 1950 and 2000, Brazil's urban population grew from 36 percent to 81 percent of the total population (Table 1). During this period, the country underwent major transformations and became an industrial and urban, ra...

In Brazil, the age and education compositions of the male labor force is changing with great regional variation. Based on Demographic Census microdata, results indicate that cohort size has a negative impact on earnings, but this effect is decreasing over time. In this study we consider the impact on earnings by age and education, as well as estima...

This paper analyzes the impact of the educational conditions of Brazil's Bolsa Família Program on the dropout rates of children benefiting from the program. The main hypothesis is that children living in a household that receives the benefit have a lower chance of dropping out of school. Data are from the 2005 and 2009 Impact Evaluation of the Bols...

The objective of this study is to estimate the long term mean earnings of the male Brazilian population, taking into account the ageing process of the population and the increase in educational attainment. Using census data, household sample surveys, as well as population and education projections, estimates indicate that an ageing population and a...

This study evaluates whether 853 municipalities of Minas Gerais have developed one specific strategy of electronic government. We searched for municipalities that have websites for the executive branch, relating this information to a number of secondary data. These data include variables on the Municipal Human Development Index (HDI-M), municipal b...

Resumo: neste artigo, verificamos em que medida as manifestações culturais dos frequentadores de feiras de arte e alimentação de Goiânia produzem formas diferenciadas de percepção social, determinam o nível de participação social e criam ou aprofundam as diferenças sociais. Palavras-chave: Modernidade. Visões de mundo. Formas culturais. Perecepção...

This study develops a methodology that incorporates internal migration dynamics into models that estimate the impact of demographic and education transitions on the age-education earnings profiles of Brazilian workers over time. Techniques to estimate the level and pattern of migration were integrated. Findings follow initial hypothesis, and indica...

Resumen El gobierno mexicano puso en práctica programas de planificación familiar desde los años setenta, en contraposición al gobierno brasileño que no ha implementado políticas de población. En este artículo se estima la influencia de dichas políticas en las tendencias de fecundidad de mujeres de diferentes segmentos sociales, con modelos estadís...

This paper intends to develop procedures which can be applied to different countries and databases to estimate migration rates using information on place of previous residence (last-move data) and duration of residence. For this, some modifications are proposed to previous methods, in order to improve the measurement of migration rates. Other estim...

Resumo: O artigo trata dos movimentos migratórios em Goiás e no Distrito Federal, sintetizando o panorama que se forma nas áreas de maior atração de contingentes populacionais na Região Centro-Oeste, as microrregiões de Goiânia e Entorno do Distrito Federal. De início, localiza nos anos setenta um redirecionamento migratório na região, decorrente d...

With rapidly declining fertility and increased longevity the age structure of the labor force in developing countries has changed rapidly. Changing relative supply of workers by age group, and by educational attainment, can have profound effects on labor costs. Their impacts on earnings have been heavily studied in the United States but have receiv...

This paper focuses on the geography of internal migration to and settlement within the metropolitan area of São Paulo. Specifically, the research objectives are to: (1) document the major flows of internal migration into the São Paulo metropolitan area; (2) map both short- and long-term migrant patterns of settlement within the São Paulo metropolit...

Since its founding in 1500 by Portuguese colonists, Brazil, the largest country in South America with over 184 million people, has had a strong immigrant presence. The composition of the population has been greatly influenced by distinct waves of immigrants at different moments in history. Much of this immigration, in turn, has been tied to economi...

Desde 1950, o processo de urbanização no Brasil foi marcante. Políticas governamentais pós-guerra estimularam o crescimento econômico, o qual instigou a migração rural-urbana. Ainda hoje, a migração interna é importante, mesmo depois do declínio do ritmo de urbanização. Neste artigo, o principal objetivo é estudar os padrões de migração na mesorreg...

Not available Sociology