Erling Moxnes

• PhD
• Professor (Full) at University of Bergen

Decision‐makers use system dynamics models to understand how model structure causes problematic behaviors, and how the structure should be changed to improve performance. However, understanding problem behavior and designing policies can be complicated without analytical tools. Existing methods focus on feedback loops that drive dynamic behavior. W...

To ensure sustainable development, governments depend on informed decision‐makers including the electorates. Previous studies show evidence of widespread and systematic misperceptions, voter ignorance, and reliance on inappropriate cognitive heuristics. The wait and see heuristic is one such trusted heuristic that is used repeatedly and with minima...

We experience a multifaceted challenge when we try to understand complex, dynamic systems and communicate our understanding about such systems. This chapter gives an overview of the challenges that we experience and how the different challenges synergize to make our problems more complex. Also, the chapter provides a brief review of the existing in...

Research shows that we experience a multifaceted challenge when we try to understand and communicate our understanding about complex, dynamic systems. The challenges emanate from three different sources, structural complexity of dynamic systems, lack of skills to understand and communicate our understanding about such system, and the level of effec...

Numerous studies document that people have difficulties comprehending complex, dynamic systems (CDS) and communicating their understanding about such systems. Efforts were made to support learning in and about CDS. However, there are still significant gaps in our understanding of how to support and improve cognitive and communicative capabilities i...

The literature discussed in Chap. 2 and a focus group discussion carried out with two experts reveal that students experience multifaceted challenges when they try to understand and communicate their understanding about CDS. Hence, the primary objective of this monograph is enhancing students’ learning in and about CDS. For this purpose, the author...

Following the Early View publication on Wiley Online Library on 7th February 2019, this announcement paper has been removed awaiting the completion of the production of the actual paper that it is announcing. The final publication will be made available in due course.

Switzerland faces two major challenges in the electricity sector. The existing nuclear power plants will be phased out and at the same time new renewable electricity sources should increase their share in production. A System Dynamics simulation model is built to improve the understanding of central dynamics in the Swiss electricity provision syste...

Climate policy recommendations differ widely because of disagreements over what discount rates to use. Disagreement reduces the impact of economic models and signals a need for improved methodology. The problem is related to the choice of intergenerational welfare functions. A first questionnaire finds that the standard welfare function (SWF) fails...

At the University of Bergen in Norway, educating students to use computer models and to think systemically about social and economic problems began in the 1970s. The International Masters Program in System Dynamics was established in 1995, and a Ph.D. program began a few years later. Student enrolment doubled in 2010 with the establishment of the E...

Fishery policies have largely developed in response to revealed problems with existing policy instruments. The last major innovation is the introduction of individual transferable quotas, ITQs. Experience thus far is promising. However, if history repeats itself, it is pertinent to start exploring further improvements. Among other things, concerns...

Environmentalists often urge their home countries to take a leading role in reducing global environmental problems like climate change. A pertinent question is: will examples set by leading nations influence others to follow suit, and if so, do the costs of leading matter? For instance, will costly domestic reductions have a stronger effect on foll...

The commentary by Moss et al. (2010) disagrees with policy recommendations we did not give. Our main conclusions were that "Our study warrants further studies... [and]... implies a modification of the 'folk wisdom' of not drinking on an empty stomach." Our conclusions were based on a laboratory experiment where we found that juvenile subjects behav...

Open access (or the " tragedy of the commons ") is a well-known explanation of fish stock depletion and of overcapacity. This chapter focuses on the complexity of proper management of the commons, specifically, policies to control total allowable catch (TAC) and total harvesting capacity: what are the major challenges, why is it easy for policy mak...

Juveniles becoming overly intoxicated by alcohol is a widespread problem with consequences ranging from hangovers to deaths. We ask: could overshoots of intended levels of intoxication be triggered by misperceptions of the types found in recent studies of decision making in dynamic systems? It is well known that the dynamics of the blood alcohol co...

Previous experimental studies have found that people generally misperceive the basic dynamics of renewable resources, and in particular the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The purpose of the present laboratory experiment is to find out why people misperceive the dynamics of CO2 accumulation and how misperceptions could be...

Many studies have found widespread misperceptions of dynamic systems. Knowing the complexity of dynamic systems and how little education is offered on this matter, misperceptions and mismanagement should not come as a surprise. Furthermore, due to complexity, analysts face difficulties in setting boundaries for models and in choosing dept of analys...

This paper examines market behaviour in a series of Cournot market experiments with five sellers. Step by step, we add complexity (and realism) to the basic Cobweb market. First, we introduce long lifetimes of production capacity. Second, we introduce a two period investment lag in addition to long lifetimes. Consistent with previous experiments an...

Traditional behaviour sensitivity analysis is used to judge the sensitivity of model behaviour to uncertain assumptions about model formulations and parameter values. It is argued that it may be just as important to test the sensitivity of policy recommendations to uncertain assumptions. However, in complex dynamic models, policy recommendations ty...

A frequent argument against efficiency standards is that they prohibit products that represent optimal choices for customers and thus lead to reduced customer utility. In this paper we propose and test a method to estimate such losses. Conjoint analysis is used to estimate utility functions for individuals that have recently bought a refrigerator....

Previous laboratory experiments, using quite complex resource simulators, suggest that renewable resources are over-utilised because of a general tendency for people to systematically misperceive the dynamics of bioeconomic systems. Here, similar experiments with simplified simulators involving the management of reindeer rangelands are carried out....

The task of finding optimal policies in stochastic dynamic systems is challenging. The theory of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is quite complex and the available software packages are not intended for non-specialists. Furthermore, SDP is traditionally limited to quite small and well defined problems. Stochastic optimisation in policy space (...

The management of reindeer ranges is a complicated task as indicated both by the complexity of the normative analyses required and the mismanagement observed in real and laboratory settings. The present report is a user's manual to a decision-tool that attempts to strike a balance between complex normative analyses and practical decision-making. A...

This paper investigates the effect of having a leader in a laboratory public bad experiment with five subjects in each group. The control treatment is a standard public bad experiment, while in the leader treatments the design is such that in each group the leader decides first on his or her investment in the public bad. After being informed about...

A laboratory experiment is used to investigate the practical usefulness of two types of models or decision tools employed in social planning. The case is quota setting in a two-species fishery. We find that advice from both a simplistic two-species stochastic optimization model and from two single-species simulation models improve management. The t...

This paper deals with the management of renewable resources subject to measurement error. The method, stochastic optimization in policy space (SOPS), allows for more general solutions to problems that are not LQ than earlier attempts. Measurement errors are found to be more important for quota policies than natural stochastic variation. With little...

The problem of optimal adaptation of reindeer herds to rangelands under uncertain environmental conditions and measurement errors is studied by stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) and by stochastic optimisation in policy space (SOPS). The study expands on earlier studies by including measurement error, body weights, alternatives to lichen in winte...

The article summarizes key insights from four laboratory experiments to study renewable resource management. The commons problem, which is widely held to be the cause of mismanagement of common renewable resources, was ruled out by the design of the experiments. Still the participants overinvested and overutilized their resources. The explanation o...

The article summarizes key insights from four laboratory experiments to study renewable resource management. The commons problem, which is widely held to be the cause of mismanagement of common renewable resources, was ruled out by the design of the experiments. Still the participants overinvested and overutilized their resources. The explanation o...

With regard to global or regional environmental problems, do countries that take unilateral actions inspire other countries to curtail emissions? In this paper this possibility is investigated by the use of a novel design of a laboratory public bad experiment with a leader. Twelve groups of five subjects played the game twice, with two treatments:...

In this paper, we examine the impact of information on individual contributions in a public-bad experiment. We compare two experimental treatments. In the partial information treatment, subjects are only informed about the total contributions by their group, whereas in the full information treatment they get also feedback on the individual decision...

Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effect...

At the initial stage of this project, the project group consisted of Asbjørn Aaheim, Magnus Hatlebakk and the authors. The authors are grateful for the discussion with the other project participants at this stage. We also had very useful discussion with the marine researcher Sigurd Tjelmeland about the design of the virtual reality. Thanks also to...

An exploratory search for explanations of mismanagement of renewable resources, other than the theory of the commons, was performed by an experiment. Eighty three subjects, mostly recruited from the fisheries sector in Norway, were asked to manage the same simulated virgin fish stock, one subject at a time. Exclusive property rights were granted to...

Numerous renewable resources have been exploited beyond limits for sustainable and economic development. At times over-exploitation has been observed even in cases where management regimes have been in place. Thus, it seems pertinent to search for explanations beyond the theory of the commons. An experiment is performed where subjects set reindeer...

We explore the possibilities for constructing an aggregate model of the multispecies fish resources of the Barents Sea, useful for the purpose of policy analysis under uncertainty. A wish to make the model compatible with existing Norwegian models of the Barents Sea, notably the Aggmult and the Econmult models, works to complicate the model. A wish...

Fuel substitution in OECD-European electricity production is described by a putty-clay formulation. At the time of investment, fuel shares are determined according to a logit model. These fuel shares are maintained throughout the lifetime of the power plants. However, a significant share of capacity is assumed to be flexible. Short-term fuel switch...

This paper addresses the following question — does the number of proven petroleum reserves on the Norwegian continental shelf justify the current level of exploratory effort? The paper argues that this effort should be curtailed for some time to come. It also provides a framework within which the recurrent problem of selecting an appropriate level...

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Dartmouth College.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we compare two representations of a fish stock: a complex cohort (age-class) model and a simple aggregate (surplus growth) model. A key question is whether the aggregate model is an appropriate simplification of the more complex model. The comparison is made with respect to the optimal fishing strategies...

Decision-makers are often concerned with forecasts of environmental variables. In accordance with this the quality of forecasts is often discussed. The interest in forecasts also show up in much modeling activity. However, the value of forecasts in terms of improved quality of decisions is not extensively studied. In this article we investigate the...

Moxnes, E. and Eline van der Heijden (2007). ”Utslippsreduksjon hjemme eller ute” (about leadership in climate policy), Sept. 24, Nationen, Oslo.

Developed countries should find cost-effective ways to decrease Green House Gas (GHG) emissions to comply with their Kyoto Protocol targets by year 2012. The target can be achieved either by domestic emission reduction or by buying quotas in international markets. Policy makers have to choose between these policy options and decide to what extend a...

Paper was presented in the 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 – 29, 2011 --- Washington, DC: To ensure implementation of requirements of EU Directive 2006/32/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services in Latvia First National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (EEAP) 2008 – 2010 is approved where the goal is es...